Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 93

Lithuania positioned to emerge as Baltic economic powerhouse?

By George Prior

Lithuania is the best-positioned country in its region to overcome the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, affirms the founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The comments from deVere Group’s Nigel Green come as the war has intensified over the last week, again sending shockwaves through the economies of neighbouring countries.

He says: “The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has cast a long shadow over the economies of nearby countries, creating a ripple effect that demands immediate attention.

“Countries like Lithuania have not been spared from the repercussions of this crisis, with economic disruptions posing significant challenges.

“However, amid adversity lies the opportunity for strategic action to drive economic recovery and growth.”

Lithuania, a key player in the Baltic region, has experienced first-hand the economic consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. The prevailing uncertainty has dealt a blow to investor confidence, causing domestic and foreign investments to stagnate.

Trade, a vital engine of growth for Lithuania, has been hampered by the disruption of supply chains and the deterioration of trade routes.

One of the most pronounced effects has been the sharp increase in energy prices. Disruptions in natural gas pipelines traversing Ukraine have led to supply concerns, causing energy costs to soar in Lithuania. This rise not only impacts households but also places local industries at a competitive disadvantage.

“Lithuania recognises the need for proactive measures to counter the adverse effects of the conflict,” says Nigel Green. “This is why I believe it’s the best-positioned country in the region to stimulate economic growth.

“In light of disrupted trade with Ukraine, Lithuania is diversifying its trade portfolio. By establishing robust trade relationships with stable economies beyond its immediate region, Lithuania can buffer itself against future shocks and bolster economic resilience.”

He continues: “Acknowledging the vulnerability of traditional energy sources, Lithuania is turning towards renewable energy investments. This transition not only ensures energy security but also aligns with global sustainability goals, contributing to a more stable energy landscape.”

Lithuania plans to invest in its infrastructure and by creating well-connected transport networks, “the country seeks to position itself as a pivotal link between Eastern and Western Europe,” attracting trade and investment.

“Most importantly, Lithuania aims to attract foreign direct investment by encouraging a business-friendly environment. Streamlining bureaucracy, offering incentives, and showcasing the country’s potential can attract foreign companies to invest, thereby boosting economic activity and job and wealth creation.”

In addition, by promoting research, innovation, and technology-driven industries, “Lithuania aspires to become a hub for high-value, knowledge-based jobs,” and embracing cutting-edge technologies will “propel the nation towards economic rejuvenation.”

Nigel Green concludes: “By adopting a multi-pronged approach that encompasses trade diversification, renewable energy, infrastructure development, foreign direct investment attraction, innovation, and diplomatic engagement, Lithuania is poised to weather the storm and emerge stronger than before.

“This commitment to progress underscores Lithuania’s determination to turn adversity into an opportunity for sustainable growth.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Fed will lose public and market confidence with more rate rises

By George Prior

The US Federal Reserve will “lose the confidence of the public and financial markets” and have “disastrous” economic effects, if it continues raising rates any further, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The stark warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes ahead of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which comes out Thursday at 8:30 am EST.

The PCE price index measures changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services over time. It’s one of the key indicators used by the US central bank and other economic analysts to assess inflation trends and make monetary policy decisions.

The deVere CEO comments: “The PCE is being keenly watched as investors were cheered earlier in the week by the weaker-than-expected payrolls data and annual gross domestic product growth forecast – both of which strongly make the case that the Federal Reserve must now stop its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades.”

He continues: “The Fed’s battles against inflation, growth and jobs are being won.

“There are now genuine concerns that unless the Fed drops raising rates, it will drive the US economy into a major recession.

“As the world’s largest and most influential economy, this would potentially have disastrous global implications.”

Nigel Green also stresses that not only must the Federal Reserve abandon its tightening program because the program has been effective, but it must also do so because inflation is likely to fall quicker than many anticipate for three reasons.

“First, there’s unlikely to be a wage price spiral as real wages are typically going down despite the increases.  Employers now seem to be holding back from increasing salaries on demand, which will help stifle wage inflation.

“Second, the time lag for monetary policies is incredibly lengthy. It takes around 18 months for the full effect of rate hikes to make their way into the economy – and that’s where we are – and so financial conditions will get squeezed even harder in the near term.

“And third, although many economies are now likely to avoid a full-blown recession, economic growth is still expected to be weak for the foreseeable future.”

He concludes: “If the Fed does not stop its rate hiking agenda, it will lose the confidence of the public and financial markets which would have serious, far-reaching negative consequences for the US and the world.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Wealthy investors convinced by alternative investments

By George Prior

High-net-worth investors “remain absolutely convinced” by alternative investments, including venture capital, cryptocurrencies, structured products, and hedge funds – despite a wider slowdown of inflows into the sector.

The assessment from Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as media reports cite research that suggests that inflows have dropped by hundreds of billions of dollars over the last year as institutional investors reassessed their exposure to ‘alts.’

He says: “While institutional investor inflows into alternative investments might have slowed, our experience worldwide shows that the opposite is true with individual investors.

“Interest from our high-net-worth individuals around the world is growing in ‘alts’; they remain absolutely convinced that less familiar, return-enhancing asset classes, which include venture capital, structured products, high dividend stocks, crypto, hedge funds and managed futures, and real estate, should be a part of their investment mix.”

Alternative investments are distinct from traditional asset classes like stocks, bonds, and cash, encompassing a diverse array of investment options that offer unique risk and return profiles.

While they require careful due diligence, their inclusion in a well-structured portfolio can offer opportunities for enhanced returns and exposure to non-traditional investment strategies.

Alts are characterised by their potential to deliver higher yields and increased capital appreciation, though they can also come with greater complexity and illiquidity.

“Savvy investors will be considering this temporary period of falling inflows or lower popularity as a buying opportunity.  They will be seeing the bigger picture,” affirms Nigel Green.

“These investors understand that alternative investments tend to have low correlations with traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds, meaning that their performance may not be closely tied to the movements of traditional markets. Diversification can help reduce overall portfolio volatility and mitigate the impact of market downturns. This can improve the overall risk-adjusted returns of a portfolio.”

He continues: “While alternative investments come with higher risks, they also offer the potential for higher returns compared to traditional investments, especially in periods of economic growth or when specific strategies are successful.

“They also provide flexibility in terms of investment strategies. Hedge funds, for instance, can employ a range of strategies to potentially profit from market inefficiencies.

“Potential for Alpha: Some alternative strategies aim to generate alpha, which is the excess return earned above the market’s benchmark. Skilled managers in areas like hedge funds or private equity may be able to capitalize on their expertise to outperform the broader market.”

For these important, strategic reasons, the deVere CEO predicts that “institutional investors will be back into alts in the near future”, adding, “the current slowdown of inflows by institutions is a blip.”

Investors considering alternative investments should conduct thorough due diligence, assess their risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor who understands the opportunities as well as complexities of these investments.

“Remaining steadfast in their strategy for wealth building success, ‘diversify and thrive’ would be high-net-worth individuals’ attitude towards alternative investments,” concludes Nigel Green.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

China is trying to stimulate economic growth. The probability of another rate hike by the Fed rose to 67%

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.62%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.63%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.84% on Monday. Stocks rose on Monday while bond yields declined thanks to support provided by comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Powell on Friday that the Fed is prepared to continue raising interest rates if needed but “will proceed cautiously” on whether to raise rates again, opening the door for a potential pause in Fed operations. Currently, there is a 23% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting and a 67% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting.

Monday’s US economic news was positive for stocks after the August reading of the Dallas Fed’s measure of overall business activity in the manufacturing sector rose by 2.8 to a 5-month high of minus 17.2, which was stronger than expectations of minus 19.0.

Shares of 3M Co. rose more than 5% after it agreed to pay $5.5 billion to settle lawsuits related to military earplugs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 1.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.32% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.93%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading due to the bank holiday.

Eurozone money supply unexpectedly declined by 0.4% y/y in July, weaker than expected and the sharpest rate of contraction in 13 years. ECB Governing Council spokesperson Holzmann said the following: “If there are no major surprises, I see grounds for continuing to raise rates without a pause.” The next ECB meeting will be held on September 14.

China’s actions over the weekend to stimulate its markets have sparked optimism about a possible resumption of economic growth, which is having a positive impact on energy demand and crude oil prices. In addition, gains in US stock markets on Monday boosted confidence in the economic outlook, supporting energy demand. But investors are refraining from taking large oil positions ahead of the release of key economic indicators from the US and China later this week.

Asian markets were also predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 1.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.97% on Monday’s close, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.63% yesterday.

Asian equities were supported after China took a number of measures to stimulate its markets, including cutting the tax levied on share trading. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could potentially lower reserve requirement ratios sooner than expected, providing local markets with more liquidity. Chinese officials also talked about potential financial support for the economy.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,433.31 +27.60 (+0.63%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,559.98 +213.08 (+0.62%)

DAX (DE40)  15,792.61 +160.79 (+1.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,338.58 0 (0%)

USD Index  104.02 -0.06 (-0.05%)

Important events for today:
  • – German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Gov-Designate Bullock Speaks at 10:40 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Fed chief hints at another rate hike. Oil may come under pressure in the coming weeks

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.73% (-0.53% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67% (+0.58% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.94% (+1.82% for the week) on Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that policymakers are prepared to raise interest rates further if necessary but also signaled that they may keep rates at current levels in September if economic data support it.

Key talking points from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the conclusion of a conference in Jackson Hole:

  • We are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected;
  • Evidence of sustained above-trend growth could jeopardize further progress in inflation and warrant further monetary tightening;
  • Evidence that labor market tightness is no longer easing could also warrant a monetary policy response.

According to analysts, despite the hawkish tones in Jerome Powell’s speech, the Fed is happy with current trends, and if they continue, they won’t change anything. But if the US Central Bank sees that these economic trends are fading or suddenly beginning to change, it will increase the likelihood of another rate hike because the Fed will be very sensitive to the data, and this sensitivity will be one-sided – in the direction of tightening.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly rising on Friday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.07% (week’s total +0.37%), French CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.38% (week’s total +0.90%), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.15% (week’s total +0.76%), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.07% (week’s total +1.05%). Germany’s August business climate fell by 1.7 to a 10-month low of 85.7, below expectations of 86.8. ECB President Lagarde said at a symposium in Jackson Hole that the ECB “will set interest rates at a fairly restrictive level for as long as necessary to bring inflation back to the medium-term target of 2% in a timely manner.” For his part, Nagel of the ECB’s Governing Council said that with inflation still standing around 5%, “it is too early to think about a pause” in interest rate hikes. European inflation data will be released this week. Core inflation in Germany, as well as across the Eurozone, is expected to fall slightly, raising the possibility that the ECB may hit the pause button in September.

Oil was supported on Friday after Marathon Petroleum shut down its Garyville refinery in Louisiana, the third-largest refinery in the United States with a refining capacity of 596,000 BPD, due to a fire. In addition, Friday’s weekly report from Baker Hughes was upbeat for oil as the report showed that active oil rigs in the US fell to their lowest level in a year and a half. But analysts believe that against the backdrop of September, which is considered a seasonally weak month, there is a high probability of oil price declines in the coming weeks. Moreover, open interest is sharply declining, suggesting that oil bulls are taking profits after the rally.

Asian markets were also mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.23% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 0.89%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative by 0.46%.

In Australia, seasonally adjusted retail sales for July rose by 0.5% month-over-month versus an expected 0.3%. Despite the increase, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he expects growth in the Australian economy to weaken significantly due to interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and a slowdown in China.

A meeting between Bank of Canada Governor Kazuo Ueda and Japan’s Prime Minister last week sparked new rumors of monetary policy normalization. Traders are also wary of government intervention against the yen after it hit a nine-month low last week. The weak yen, which has helped Japanese stocks outperform global peers this year, is now pressuring the market, raising expectations that the Bank of Japan will be forced to move toward monetary tightening.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,405.71 +29.40 (+0.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,346.90 +247.48 (+0.73%)

DAX (DE40)  15,631.82 +10.33 (+0.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,338.58 +4.95 (+0.07%)

USD Index  104.19 +0.21 (+0.20%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Lithuania should seize the foreign direct investment advantage

By George Prior

Lithuania needs to harness “the enormous power” of international investment to boost its economic opportunities in an increasingly globalised world, says serial global investor Nigel Green.

The European Union-based international entrepreneur, investor, and government advisor stresses that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a lifeline for economic growth and development.

He says: “Countries worldwide compete to attract foreign direct investment due to its ability to bring capital, technology, expertise, market access and large-scale job and wealth-building opportunities to a nation.

“All over the world, history proves that foreign direct investment ignites long-term, sustainable economic growth.”

As a long-term investor in and advocator of Lithuania, Nigel Green says that Lithuania should now “harness the power of foreign direct investment (FDI) and allow it to become a cornerstone of national economic development.”

He says: “I’m a huge believer in the potential of Lithuania and I think the time is right for Lithuania to seize the FDI advantage.

“By properly pushing the FDI programme, there will be a surge of capital into Lithuania, catalysing economic activity and driving growth.

“This influx of funds can be channelled into critical sectors such as infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing, creating jobs and improving the standard of living for the Lithuanian people.”

Nigel Green continues: “As I have seen around the world, foreign investors typically introduce different technologies, best practices, and management expertise.

“This transfer of knowledge enhances local innovation capacity and accelerates Lithuania’s progress toward becoming a knowledge-based, top-tier economy.”

Foreign direct investment would also help diversify Lithuania’s industrial landscape, reducing overreliance on specific sectors and fostering resilience against economic fluctuations.

“The establishment of new industries and sectors enhances economic stability and paves the way for a more balanced economy,” he notes.

“In addition, by going big on foreign direct investment, Lithuania gains more access to international markets through the establishment of export-oriented industries. These industries create products for global consumption, generating foreign exchange earnings and contributing to the country’s export revenue.”

Infrastructure development, from transportation networks to energy systems, would also receive a boost. Improved infrastructure not only attracts investors but also contributes to the overall development of the country for the long-term.

Additionally, as foreign investors seek local talent, Lithuania’s workforce is then exposed to global business practices, higher salaries, and skill enhancement, all of which creates a more competitive labour force.

Nigel Green concludes: “As Lithuania continues to assert itself on the global stage, the strategic use of foreign direct investment should take on greater significance.

“The transformative impact of a comprehensive FDI agenda on Lithuania’s economy, from innovation to job creation, would be undeniable.

“With the right approach, Lithuania can position itself as a beacon of opportunity, attracting investments from around the world that empower its people, enhance its economic resilience, and pave the way for a brighter and prosperous future.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

The US stock market is under a sell-off on hawkish comments from FOMC representatives. Japan is seeing a decline in inflation

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.08%, while the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 1.36%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative at 1.87%. Stocks were under a sell-off on Thursday, sending the Dow Jones Industrials Index to a 6-week low. The sell-off in technology stocks had a negative impact on the overall market. In addition, stronger-than-expected US economic news and hawkish comments from the Fed pushed bond yields higher and triggered the liquidation of long positions in equities ahead of Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell.

On Thursday, the Fed’s hawkish comments were bullish for the dollar index and bearish for stock indices. FRB Boston President Collins said it will take time for inflation to reach the Fed’s 2% target, and “we may need to raise rates further, and we may hold rates at restrictive levels for some time.” Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said a pickup in economic activity this summer could delay the Fed’s plans to end its campaign to raise interest rates, “This acceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stop the disinflation we’re seeing, and instead delay the Fed’s plans to change policy.” Philadelphia Fed President Harker believes policymakers have likely undertaken sufficient tightening and that the Fed has “probably done enough” and believes interest rates will be steady through the year’s end.

Today, markets await Fed Chairman Powell’s comments at the annual symposium of the world’s central banks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. With inflation down from 40-year highs but still well above the Fed’s 2% target, Powell’s speech will be scrutinized for when the Fed might end its rate hike campaign. ECB President Lagarde will also speak at the event.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.68%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.44% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive at 0.18%.

ECB Governing Council representative Centeno said yesterday that the ECB “should be cautious in deciding on additional rate hikes, as downside risks to the economy that were identified in June have materialized.”

The GkK report showed that UK consumer confidence rebounded in August as inflation showed signs of cooling and strong wage growth supported household finances. The figures starkly contrast the sharp fall in retail sales in July, with industry research suggesting the decline is likely to continue.

Crude oil and gasoline prices closed modestly higher on Thursday. Stronger-than-expected economic news from the US on Thursday signaled a strengthening economy favorable for energy demand and crude oil prices. Signs of tight supply also supported oil after the EIA’s weekly crude inventories data fell more than expected to a 7-month low on Wednesday. But a stronger dollar on Thursday limited gains in energy prices.

Natural gas prices rose moderately on Thursday after weekly natural gas inventories released by the EIA increased by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet), below expectations of 31 Bcf. The rise in natural gas prices was capped by a forecast that cooler temperatures will arrive in the lower 48 US states next week, reducing demand for natural gas from power suppliers to run air conditioners.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.87% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday up 2.05%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive at 0.47%.

Core inflation in Japan’s capital slowed in August for the second consecutive month (3.0%→2.8%) but remained well above the Сentral Bank’s 2% target. Analysts expect inflation to continue slowing in the coming months, reflecting the recent decline in commodity prices and the base effect of last year’s price surge.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,376.31 −59.70 (−1.35%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,099.42 −373.56 (−1.08%)

DAX (DE40)  15,621.49 −106.92 (−0.68%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,333.63 +13.10 (+0.18%)

USD Index  104.00 +0.58 (+0.56%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Jackson Hole Symposium at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:05 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

China seeks rapid BRICS expansion. The US central bank’s economic symposium will begin today

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index increased by 0.54%, while the S&P500 (US500) index added 1.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.59% yesterday. Stocks were boosted by weaker-than-expected economic news from the US and Europe on business activity, reinforcing speculation that the Fed and ECB may hold off on raising interest rates.

Shares of major technology companies rose ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results. On Wednesday, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and an encouraging outlook as the race to adopt artificial intelligence continues to drive demand for its chips. The stock price rose more than 9% in after-hours trading.

The US Central Bank’s annual symposium will begin today in Jackson Hole in the United States. Once a year, FOMC officials gather for a summer symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to exchange views on monetary policy and economic trends. While the event is mainly academic in nature, it has been used by Fed leaders over the years to signal future monetary policy plans. Investors will focus on whether the Fed chief believes further policy tightening will be needed to reduce inflation or whether sufficient progress has been made to keep rates unchanged.

According to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate released on Wednesday, retail sales rose just 0.4% last month. With goods consumption and the broader economy showing some signs of slowing, policymakers may have an opportunity to retake a wait-and-see stance and keep the overnight rate at 5% at their next meeting on September 6.

Equity markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15%, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.08% on Wednesday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.05%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.68%. Eurozone business activity data disappointed investors. Despite an uptick in the manufacturing sector (42.7→43.7), the service sector fell back into contractionary territory (50.9→48.3). The manufacturing sector has been contracting, with new orders and backlogs declining. While goods sector inflation is falling due to lower costs and weak demand, services sector inflation is still high due to higher labor costs despite weaker demand. The hawks on the ECB board will be inclined to push for another rate hike as wage pressures push up services inflation.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.48% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.31% on Wednesday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.38% on the day.

BRICS leaders agreed at a summit to expand membership. China is keen on expanding BRICS amid growing competition with the US, but the group’s other major power, India, does not share this interest. South African officials say several countries have submitted formal applications to join BRICS, which accounts for 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of the global economy. They include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Argentina, and Iran. On his second overseas trip this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the bloc’s expansion would “pool our strength and our wisdom to make global governance more just and equitable.” The summit underscored differences with the West over the war in Ukraine and the support Russia is receiving from its BRICS partners at a time of global isolation. South Africa, China, and India did not condemn Russia’s invasion, while Brazil refused to join Western countries in sending weapons to Ukraine or imposing sanctions on Moscow.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,436.01 +48.46 (+1.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,472.98 +184.15 (+0.54%)

DAX (DE40)  15,728.41 +22.79 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,320.53 +49.77 (+0.68%)

USD Index  103.59 +0.29 (+0.28%)

Important events for today:
  • – Jackson Hole Symposium at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Canada is on the verge of a housing bubble. US indices are under renewed pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index decreased by 0.51%, while the S&P500 (US500) index lost 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.06% yesterday. Yesterday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks after July’s existing home sales fell more than expected to a 6-month low. Still, the August manufacturing report from the FRB Richmond unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high. The 3-day symposium of the US central bank in Jackson Hole starts as early as tomorrow, where the main focus of investors is directed towards the speeches of US Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate hike at the September 20th FOMC meeting at 16% and a 25bp hike at the First of November FOMC meeting at 49%.

According to economists, Canada is likely sitting on the biggest housing bubble of all time. Canadians’ level of debt relative to their income puts many in a precarious position if mortgage rates continue to rise, which is likely. The worst thing for a housing bubble is when a credit bubble forms underneath it, as it did in the United States in 2008.

Equity markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.66%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) gained 0.59% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.18%. French retail sales in July fell by 2.1% y/y, marking the fourteenth consecutive decline in sales. Today, the Eurozone is expected to publish data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Analysts expect negative data, which will put additional pressure on the ECB.

Oil prices are falling for the second day in a row, with the price of oil in the US stopping below the critical support of $80 per barrel amid concerns about the economic slowdown in China and the possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The excitement over Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting oil production has receded into the background but is helping the price not to fall too deeply.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.92% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.68%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.95% on Tuesday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive 0.09%. Concerns about China persisted after the People’s Bank disappointed markets with a smaller-than-expected cut in interest rates this week. Additional stimulus measures promised by the government earlier were not announced, which also had a negative impact on Chinese equities.

In New Zealand, total retail sales in June declined by 1% from March. This is the third consecutive quarterly decline, following a 1.6% decline in March and 1.1% in December. Seasonally adjusted retail sales totaled 25 bln. The decline in retail sales indicates that consumers are spending less money in stores and saving more. This usually occurs in recessionary and pre-recessionary scenarios.

In Japan, the business activity level in the manufacturing sector rose from 49.6 to 49.7. The service sector increased from 53.8 to 54.3. Core inflation, which the Bank of Japan monitors, rewrote the highs and amounted to a modest by global standards, but still a record for Japan at 3.3%. According to analysts, the Bank of Japan still controls the situation. Still, when you print yen with one hand and keep the rates around zero, and with the other hand, you try to prevent devaluation – sooner or later, significant problems may arise.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,387.55 −12.22 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,288.83 −174.86 (−0.51%)

DAX (DE40)  15,705.62 +102.34 (+0.66%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,270.76 +12.94 (+0.18%)

USD Index  103.59 +0.29 (+0.28%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Social media algorithms warp how people learn from each other, research shows

By William Brady, Northwestern University 

People’s daily interactions with online algorithms affect how they learn from others, with negative consequences including social misperceptions, conflict and the spread of misinformation, my colleagues and I have found.

People are increasingly interacting with others in social media environments where algorithms control the flow of social information they see. Algorithms determine in part which messages, which people and which ideas social media users see.

On social media platforms, algorithms are mainly designed to amplify information that sustains engagement, meaning they keep people clicking on content and coming back to the platforms. I’m a social psychologist, and my colleagues and I have found evidence suggesting that a side effect of this design is that algorithms amplify information people are strongly biased to learn from. We call this information “PRIME,” for prestigious, in-group, moral and emotional information.

In our evolutionary past, biases to learn from PRIME information were very advantageous: Learning from prestigious individuals is efficient because these people are successful and their behavior can be copied. Paying attention to people who violate moral norms is important because sanctioning them helps the community maintain cooperation.

But what happens when PRIME information becomes amplified by algorithms and some people exploit algorithm amplification to promote themselves? Prestige becomes a poor signal of success because people can fake prestige on social media. Newsfeeds become oversaturated with negative and moral information so that there is conflict rather than cooperation.

The interaction of human psychology and algorithm amplification leads to dysfunction because social learning supports cooperation and problem-solving, but social media algorithms are designed to increase engagement. We call this mismatch functional misalignment.

Why it matters

One of the key outcomes of functional misalignment in algorithm-mediated social learning is that people start to form incorrect perceptions of their social world. For example, recent research suggests that when algorithms selectively amplify more extreme political views, people begin to think that their political in-group and out-group are more sharply divided than they really are. Such “false polarization” might be an important source of greater political conflict.

Social media algorithms amplify extreme political views.

Functional misalignment can also lead to greater spread of misinformation. A recent study suggests that people who are spreading political misinformation leverage moral and emotional information – for example, posts that provoke moral outrage – in order to get people to share it more. When algorithms amplify moral and emotional information, misinformation gets included in the amplification.

What other research is being done

In general, research on this topic is in its infancy, but there are new studies emerging that examine key components of algorithm-mediated social learning. Some studies have demonstrated that social media algorithms clearly amplify PRIME information.

Whether this amplification leads to offline polarization is hotly contested at the moment. A recent experiment found evidence that Meta’s newsfeed increases polarization, but another experiment that involved a collaboration with Meta found no evidence of polarization increasing due to exposure to their algorithmic Facebook newsfeed.

More research is needed to fully understand the outcomes that emerge when humans and algorithms interact in feedback loops of social learning. Social media companies have most of the needed data, and I believe that they should give academic researchers access to it while also balancing ethical concerns such as privacy.

What’s next

A key question is what can be done to make algorithms foster accurate human social learning rather than exploit social learning biases. My research team is working on new algorithm designs that increase engagement while also penalizing PRIME information. We argue that this might maintain user activity that social media platforms seek, but also make people’s social perceptions more accurate.

About the Author:

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.The Conversation

William Brady, Assistant Professor of Management and Organizations, Northwestern University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.