Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 65

14 May

Australia will release its annual budget today. Rising inflation expectations hurt US stock indices

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.21%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.29%. Rising inflation expectations weighed on stocks after the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectation rose by 26 bps to a 5-month high of 3.26% from 3.00% in March. Stocks were also impacted by hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson when he said it was appropriate for the Fed to keep interest rates in a restrictive range.

Apple (AAPL) closed higher by more than 2% after it was reported that the company is close to an agreement to use OpenAI technology in Apple’s upcoming iOS 18 mobile operating system.

Intel (INTC) shares rose more than 2% and led the Dow Jones Industrials Index after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company is negotiating a deal that would see Apollo Global Management provide more than $11 billion to build a chip factory in Ireland.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index rose by 0.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22%.

The CAC 40 Index (FR40) closed at 8,209 on Monday, breaking its 6-day winning streak and retreating from a record high of 8,219. On the corporate front, Airbus saw the biggest drop in shares, with its stock down 1.4%.

WTI crude oil prices held above $79 a barrel on Tuesday after rising more than 1% in the previous session, helped by concerns over possible supply disruptions in Canada. Markets feared that Canada’s wildfire season could affect the country’s 3.3 million barrels per day production capacity. In the Middle East, Iraq’s oil minister said over the weekend that the country would abide by OPEC+ policy on production cuts due at the upcoming June 1 meeting, reversing his previous statement that Iraq would not agree to any new production cuts.

Asian markets experienced both ups and downs yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.80%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.01%.

Australia will release its budget today. The government is expected to announce another annual budget surplus thanks to strong employment figures. At the same time, traders will focus on the details of the planned cost of living cuts that are said to reduce consumer inflation temporarily. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he expects the current core inflation rate of 3.6% to return to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target of 2–3% by the end of the year. If this scenario works out, the Central Bank will likely cut interest rates sooner than markets expect.

Ahead of the PBOC’s upcoming medium-term interest rate decision, the offshore yuan exchange rate is holding at 7.24 per dollar, the lowest in two weeks. Expectations are leaning towards the PBOC keeping the medium-term interest rate unchanged at 2.5% at tomorrow’s meeting — the rate has been unchanged since August 2023, when 15 basis points cut it.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,221.42 −1.26 (−0.024%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,431.51 −81.33 (−0.21%)

DAX (DE40) 18,742.22 −30.63 (−0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,414.99 −18.77 (−0.22%)

USD Index 105.22 −0.09 (-0.09%)

Important events today:
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
10 May

Natural gas prices are rising amid falling inventories. The Bank of England expectedly kept the rate

By JustMarkets

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.85%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.51%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.27%. Stock index prices found support on Thursday as bond yields fell after US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected to an 8-month high, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates earlier.

US weekly jobless claims rose 22,000 to an 8.5-month high of 231,000, indicating a weak labor market compared to expectations of 212,000. On Thursday, hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly had a slightly negative impact on equities towards the end of the day when she stated that interest rates are currently holding back the economy. Still, inflation may take “more time” to return to the Fed’s target level.

Equinix (EQIX) climbed more than 11% and topped the list of top gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting adjusted first-quarter earnings of $992 million, above the consensus forecast of $976.9 million. Airbnb (ABNB) was down more than 6% and topped the list of Nasdaq 100 losers after reporting second-quarter revenue of $2.68, weaker than the consensus forecast of $2.74 billion.

First-quarter earnings results were mostly better than expected, which is favorable for the stock. First-quarter earnings are expected to grow 6.5% YoY, well above the 3.8% forecast.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.92%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.33%.

As expected, the Bank of England (BOE) kept its key rate unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting and said the risks of continued inflation are diminishing. BOE Governor Bailey said, “It’s likely that we will need to cut the bank rate over the coming quarters and make monetary policy less restrictive over the forecast period, possibly more so than currently priced into market rates.” He added that a change in the bank rate in June “is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli.”

Precious metals prices closed higher on Thursday, with gold hitting a 1-week high and silver hitting a 2-week high. Silver prices rose on Thursday, which was a sign of stronger demand for industrial metals in China. The Chinese trade news showed that China’s exports and imports rose more than expected.

WTI crude futures climbed to $80 a barrel on Friday, rising for the third consecutive session and posting a strong weekly gain amid an improving global demand outlook and ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, which helped boost oil prices. On Thursday, data showed that China’s crude oil imports rose in April, with strong trade figures in the world’s largest crude importer signaling improving demand.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose more than 5% on Thursday to surpass $2.3 MMBtu, the highest in nearly four months. The rise was helped by a smaller-than-expected increase in gas in storage, reinforcing expectations of strong demand over the next two weeks and production cuts. The US inventories added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, while the market had expected an increase of 87 bcf.

Asian markets were mixed on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed negative 0.34% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.30% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.22% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.06%.

Malaysia’s unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in March 2024 from 3.5% in the corresponding month last year, returning to pre-pandemic levels for the fifth consecutive month. The number of unemployed fell 3.8% year-on-year to 566.6k, while employment rose 1.9% to a record high of 16.53 million.

In New Zealand, the RBNZ is expected to keep the interest rate at 5.5% at its meeting later this month. This stance aligns with the OECD’s recent call for the central bank to maintain a restrictive policy until there are clearer signs that inflation is moving towards the target. In addition, the country’s manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of recovery in April despite the protracted economic downturn.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,214.08 +26.41 (+0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,387.76 +331.37 (+0.85%)

DAX (DE40) 18,686.60 +188.22 (+1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,381.35 +27.30 (+0.33%)

USD Index 105.23 -0.32 (-0.30%)

Important events today:
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 May

Strong data on China’s trade balance fuels Asian indices

By JustMarkets

US stock indices showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials Index hitting a 1-month high. The Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was virtually unchanged for the day. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.18% yesterday. Hawkish comments from the Fed and a rise in bond yields on Wednesday pressured stocks. On Wednesday, Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins emphasized the need to cool the US economy to meet the central bank’s 2% inflation target. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 10% for the June 12 FOMC meeting, 34% for the next meeting on July 31, and 66% for the September meeting.

Lyft shares are up more than 6% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter gross orders and forecast second-quarter gross orders above consensus. On the negative side, Uber Technologies fell more than 5% after reporting Q1 gross orders below consensus and forecasting weaker-than-expected gross orders in Q2.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.69% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.49%.

The Bank of England (BoE) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate at 5.25%, keeping the forward guidance unchanged and leaving options open regarding the timing of a rate cut. This will cause traders and investors to shift their attention to Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech at the press conference. If the press conference does not clarify the timing of the first rate cut, the UK index will likely come under pressure. However, if Bailey hints that the first rate cut will take place in late summer, presumably at the August meeting, it could hurt to give the index an additional boost.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $79 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session. Official data showed a decline in US crude inventories, suggesting a tightening of supply. EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 1.361 million barrels last week, a reversal from a 7.265 million barrel jump in the previous period, as refinery activity picked up. The outlook for OPEC+ production policy also remains highly uncertain ahead of the group’s June 1 meeting.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed negative 1.63% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.61% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.90% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.14%. But mainland Chinese stocks hit new multi-month highs as investors reacted to China’s trade data for April. The data showed that Chinese imports jumped 8.4% in April from a year earlier, beating predictions of 5.4%. Exports also rose 1.5%, above the 1% increase expected by analysts. The latest data was a pleasant surprise amid growing concerns that the US may impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Hong Kong stocks were up 0.75% in early trading on Thursday, rising for the first time in three sessions. The city is reportedly working to attract a new set of investors from Saudi Arabia to replace investors from the US and Europe at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. The move comes after China said last month it would support companies holding IPOs in Hong Kong.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,187.67 −0.03 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,056.39 +172.13 (+0.44%)

DAX (DE40) 18,498.38 +68.33 (+0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,354.05 +40.38 (+0.49%)

USD Index 105.51 +0.10 (+0.09%)

Important events today:
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BOE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 May

How does the brain think?

By Jennifer Robinson, Auburn University

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to [email protected].

How does the brain think? – Tom, age 16, San Diego, California

Have you ever wondered how your brain creates thoughts or why something randomly popped into your head? It may seem like magic – but actually the brain is like a supercomputer inside your head that helps you think, learn and make decisions.

Imagine your brain as a busy city with lots of streets and buildings. Each part of the brain has a specific job to do, just like certain areas of a city or certain buildings serve different purposes. When you have a thought, it’s like a message traveling through the city, passing from one area to another.

As a professor of psychology and neuroscience, I have studied the brain for almost 20 years. Neurologists, neuroscientists and neurosurgeons work every day to understand the brain better. And there’s still a lot to learn.

Your brain has four major compartments, and each compartment has lots of “buildings.”

Practice and repetition create skills

The neuron is a key player in the brain – these are tiny cells that send and receive signals and messages so they can communicate with each other.

Your brain has somewhere between 80 billion and 100 billion neurons. Neurons tend to group together to form neural tracts, which would be like the streets and highways in the city analogy. When you have a thought, neurons in your brain fire up and create electrical impulses. These impulses tend to travel along similar pathways and release tiny chemicals called neurotransmitters along the way.

These neurotransmitters are like the construction crew that builds the roads, making it easier for the messages to be delivered. You can imagine it as a dirt road, but as more traffic – that is, neuron signals – travel the dirt road, the road gets upgraded to a paved street. If the traffic continues, it gets upgraded to a highway.

As you learn new things and experience the world around you, these connections grow stronger. For example, when you are learning to ride a bike, you may be unsteady and find it hard to coordinate all of the different muscles along with your ability to balance. But the more you practice, the more the neurons controlling your muscles and your ability to balance fire together, which makes it much easier as you practice. Neurons are wiring together and forming neural networks.

That’s why practice and repetition are important for improving your skills, whether playing the piano or learning a language. Neural networks are created and then strengthened the more times they communicate together. Scientists have a saying in this field: “Neurons that fire together wire together.” Certain thinking or behavior patterns can be chalked up to this kind of repeated synchronized activity.

Developing creativity

You are conscious of only a very small portion of the information your brain takes in. It is constantly receiving input from your senses – sights, sounds, tastes, smells and touch. When you see a cute puppy or hear your favorite song, your senses send signals to the brain, triggering a chain reaction of thoughts and emotions.

The brain also stores memories, which are like files in a computer that you can access whenever you need them. Memories help shape your thoughts and influence how you see the world.

If you remember a fun day at the beach, it might make you feel happy and relaxed. If you smell an apple pie, it may remind you of your grandma’s baking. These thoughts are triggered because these pleasant associations have been formed in your brain, and through repetition, strengthened over time.

Creativity is another superpower of the brain. When you let your imagination run wild, your brain can come up with new ideas, stories and inventions. Artists, writers and scientists all use their creative brains to explore new possibilities and solve problems.

Have you ever experienced a “eureka” moment when a brilliant idea pops into your head out of nowhere? That’s your brain’s way of connecting the dots and coming up with a solution.

Walnuts, leafy greens, chickpeas and berries are on the list of brain foods.

Keeping your brain healthy

Most scientists agree that sleep is really important for your brain to process information from the day and to allow it to rest and form new connections. A lot of people find that they have new ideas or thoughts after a good night’s sleep. The opposite is true, too – without enough sleep, you may feel like you can’t think straight.

Along with enough sleep, eat healthy foods and exercise. Just like a car needs fuel to run smoothly, your brain needs nutrients and oxygen to function at its best and to boost your thinking power.

Activities that challenge you are also great: reading, doing puzzles, playing music, making art, doing math, writing essays and book reports and journaling. Positive thinking also helps. Keep in mind that whatever you are consuming – what you’re eating or what you’re watching, listening to or reading – has the power to influence your brain.

Conversely, smoking cigarettes, vaping, drinking alcohol and using drugs kills brain cells. So might head injuries that can occur when playing sports such as football, soccer and bicycling – but wearing a helmet can make a big difference.

The brain is a fascinating organ that works tirelessly to create thoughts, memories and ideas. As technology continues to improve, scientists will learn more and more about how biological processes give rise to our conscious experiences. The challenges of learning about the brain are like a neuroscientific moonshot – we have a long way to go before we completely understand how it works.

Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to [email protected]. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.The Conversation

Jennifer Robinson, Professor of Psychology, Auburn University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 May

Target Thursdays: UK100, Wheat & EURUSD hit targets!

By ForexTime

  • UK100 bulls bag 770 points
  • Wheat “throwback” rewards bears
  • EURUSD secures all bearish targets

Here are how these discussed instruments performed this week:

 

    1) UK100 touches fresh record high

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our week ahead article published on Friday, 3rd May:

We were bullish on the UK100 and suggested that a solid “close above 8200 may encourage a move toward the next psychological level at 8300”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

After hitting a fresh all-time high last Friday, the index extended gains on Tuesday after the bank holiday at the start of the week.

A weaker pound and optimism around the Bank of England (BoE) cutting interest rates down the road have turbocharged FTSE100 bulls.

Note: UK100 could see more volatility this week due to the upcoming BoE meeting and Q1 GDP figures

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Those who took advantage of a move above 8223 would have been rewarded 770 points.

 

    2) Wheat ready to resume upside?

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

Earlier in the week, we discussed how FXTM’S new commodity Wheat could push higher due to fundamental forces.

However, we cautioned that “prices may experience a technical throwback” with “sustained weakness below 629 opening a path towards 615….”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Wheat prices slipped on Wednesday, tumbling towards the 615 level before prices rebounded back towards 629.

Note: The soft commodity could see more volatility this week due to the WASDE report on Friday.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakdown below 629 and exited at 615 would have caught a roughly 2% move to the downside.

 

    3) EURUSD hits all bearish targets

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (EURUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are released once a day, before the opening of the U.S. trading session.

These signals are designed around a trading instrument’s most influential factor – PRICE – making them a powerful asset to your trading strategy.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The EURUSD fell as the dollar appreciated across the board.

Market caution and hawkish comments from a Fed official seem to be supporting the greenback.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

EURUSD has hit all its profit targets.

Traders who entered at 1.07418 and exited at the final target level of 1.07271 would have gained roughly 15 pips.

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
08 May

US-Africa trade deal turns 25 next year: Agoa’s winners, losers and what should come next

By Bedassa Tadesse, University of Minnesota Duluth 

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is a landmark piece of trade legislation enacted by the United States in 2000. Its goal is to promote economic growth, development and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa by providing qualifying countries with duty-free access to the US market for over 6,500 products. By eliminating import tariffs and quotas, Agoa aims to stimulate trade, attract foreign investment and foster economic integration between the US and African nations.

Agoa has made strides in boosting exports from eligible African countries to the US. Between 2001 and 2021, the annual value of US imports from Agoa-eligible countries nearly tripled, from US$8.15 billion to US$21.8 billion. The trade preferences have particularly benefited sectors like apparel, textiles, agriculture and light manufacturing. However, Agoa’s impact has been uneven across the region. Some countries have used the opportunities more effectively than others.

As Agoa approaches its 25th anniversary next year, policymakers are considering extending it for a further 16 years. I recently conducted a comprehensive review of scholarly articles and policy reports that analyse the impact of Agoa on the economic performance of sub-Saharan Africa. Below are the four key observations.

1. Some countries have benefited more than others

Agoa’s benefits can’t be measured in just one metric. They reflect in various terms for various countries. But available research indicates that the countries that benefited most from Agoa include South Africa, Kenya, Lesotho, Mauritius, Madagascar, Ethiopia and Ghana.

These nations have used Agoa preferences to substantially increase their exports to the US, particularly in sectors like apparel, textiles and light manufacturing.

Kenya, where apparel-dominated exports to the US have grown from US$55 million in 2001 to US$603 million in 2022, is a shining example of growth in exports. Mauritius exported chocolate and basket-weaving materials. Mali exported buckwheat, travel goods and musical instruments until its 2022 suspension. Mozambique exported sugar, nuts and tobacco. Togo exported wheat, legumes and fruit juices.

Lesotho’s success story is equally inspiring. It has had rapid export growth and job creation in its apparel sector, and this has contributed to new manufacturing jobs.

These success stories underscore the potential of Agoa to drive economic growth and job creation.

2. Some countries have not benefited much

Central and west African countries have not extensively used Agoa’s benefits. They have been held back by weakness in infrastructure, governance and global market integration.

Burundi, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Mali have seen little export growth and foreign direct investment, or no benefits.

3. Reason for the uneven benefits

The variation in Agoa’s impact across sub-Saharan Africa is down to several factors. First, countries with better infrastructure, stable governance and conducive business environments are better positioned to attract foreign investment and increase exports.

Second, the level of economic diversification and export capabilities matters. Countries with more diversified export baskets and established manufacturing sectors have managed to make the most of Agoa’s opportunities.

Third, national policies and strategies to complement Agoa are essential. Countries that put in place policies to improve productivity, integrate value chains and ease supply-side constraints appear to have had success under Agoa. Cultural (historical) connections with the US market may have also provided an advantage for some countries, like Kenya and Lesotho.

4. What the future holds

The US Senate is considering extending Agoa for another 16 years. It is vital to consider the lessons learned from the past 25 years.

Diversify the economy and add value: Many countries still rely heavily on primary commodity exports. This leaves them vulnerable to global price movements and limits their economic development prospects.

Invest in infrastructure: Transport, energy and communication are critical to enhance competitiveness and attract more foreign direct investment. Public-private partnerships and multilateral development financing could help to fill infrastructure gaps.

Promote good governance, political stability and institutional reforms: These create an enabling environment for businesses and investors. It means strengthening legal frameworks, combating corruption and ensuring the rule of law.

Build capacity and develop skills: It should be a priority to enhance human capital and create a skilled workforce that can support the other steps outlined above.

Recognise the diverse economic, political and social contexts in sub-Saharan Africa: Tailored strategies and targeted assistance could work better for individual countries.

As Agoa approaches its 25th anniversary, the potential extension through 2041 presents a strategic opportunity. The sub-Saharan African countries should refine and broaden Agoa’s impact to better serve the diverse needs of the region. By tackling the uneven impacts and focusing on sustainable development goals, Agoa can continue to play a part in the region’s economic transformation. The US and beneficiary countries must work together closely to ensure the benefits are widespread and inclusive.The Conversation

About the Author:

Bedassa Tadesse, Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota Duluth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
08 May

What’s in a VIN? How to decode the vehicle identification number, your car’s unique fingerprint

By Jordan Frith, Clemson University 

Every vehicle built after 1981 has a unique vehicle identification number, or VIN. The location of this string of letters and numbers varies, but it’s located somewhere on every car, SUV, motorcycle and truck – typically on a small metal plate or a sticker.

VINs serve many purposes. They help consumers learn about a used car’s history, including whether it was stolen, or determine whether rebates for a particular electric vehicle are available. This code appears in the paperwork necessary to do everything from insuring your car to selling it.

I research data standards and became interested in VINs while doing research for my book about the cultural history of barcodes.

Like barcode numbers, a VIN’s characters are standardized. They can tell a story if you know what to look for.

A string of numbers and letters with the heading 'Decoding the VIN'
A lot of information is packed into these 17 characters.
The Conversation U.S., CC BY-SA

What VINs can tell you

VINs can convey at least seven pieces of information.

  1. Origin
    If a VIN begins with a 1, 4 or 5, that means it’s a vehicle assembled in the U.S. Many other countries have their own unique identifier. A 2, for example, means the vehicle was made in Canada; a J stands for Japan.
  2. Manufacturer
    The second and third characters indicate the manufacturer. In some cases, the code corresponds with a line of vehicles that now belongs to a larger corporation. Dodge and Jeep, now part of Stellantis, each has its own. So does Lincoln, which became a division of Ford Motor Co. in 1922.
  3. Description
    The fourth through eighth characters provide several details, such as body type and engine type.
  4. Security
    The ninth character is a “check digit” determined by a complex mathematical equation based on the rest of the VIN’s numbers and letters. This digit, either a number or the letter X, is used to authenticate that the VIN is not a forgery.
  5. Year
    The 10th character indicates the model year. There’s only one slot for this, and not all letters and numbers are used, resulting in repetition. An R could signal either 2024 or 1994, for example.
  6. Factory
    The 11th character indicates the specific plant where the vehicle was assembled.
  7. Serial number
    The VIN’s final six characters compose a serial number that differentiates the vehicle from all others made in the same factory that are the identical type and model year.
A drawing of a car with the heading 'Where's my VIN?'
Vehicle identification number locations vary but are generally found in one of four places.
The Conversation U.S., CC BY-SA

Finding more information

Only experts can tell where a vehicle was assembled or what type of engine it has by looking at its VIN. But help is available.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration provides a handy VIN decoder. When I plugged my vehicle’s VIN into the decoder, the site correctly determined that my SUV is a 2011 Subaru Forester with an automatic transmission.

Of course, I already knew all that.

What I didn’t realize was that it weighs between 4,000 and 5,000 pounds, has a 2.5-liter engine and features side curtain airbags to protect the driver and passengers in the front and back seats. I also learned that this Subaru Forester was assembled in Gunma, Japan.

Those details had been invisible to me as a consumer, but they had been within easy reach ever since I bought my Forester in 2018. I had somehow driven that car well over 100,000 miles without realizing the number on the side of my driver’s seat contained some history.

Before buying the Forester, even though I didn’t know that my VIN could say so much, I did run it through a free online system to make sure it hadn’t been stolen.

To be sure, VINs won’t tell you everything you might want to know about a vehicle, such as what color it was when it rolled off the line. But if you can do a little decoding and make use of widely available online tools, they do harbor important information.The Conversation

Where’s your VIN and what’s it for?

 

About the Author:

Jordan Frith, Pearce Professor of Professional Communication, Clemson University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
08 May

Oil prices are rising amid rumors of increased production by OPEC countries. European indices are growing amid the “dovish” position of the ECB

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices traded mixed on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.10% yesterday. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s comments on Tuesday were hawkish when he said that given the latest inflation data, he doubts that Fed policy is restrictive enough to bring price growth back to the Fed’s 2% target. He added that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged “for an extended period” until it is satisfied that inflation will align with the target. Investors await further comments from the central bank and Friday’s Michigan consumer sentiment index to better understand how rates will move.

First-quarter earnings results were mostly better than expected, which is favorable for the stock. First-quarter earnings are expected to be up 6.5% YoY, well above the 3.8% forecast before the reporting season.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.40%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.99% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 1.22%.

ECB Governing Council representative De Cos said that the ECB may cut interest rates in June if inflation persists. On the back of positive economic news from the Eurozone, European indices were supported on Tuesday. Eurozone retail sales for March rose by 0.8% m/m, which exceeded expectations of 0.7% m/m and was the largest increase in a year and a half. German factory orders for March unexpectedly fell by 0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m. German trade news was better than expected: exports for March added 0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m. In addition, imports for March unexpectedly rose by 0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of 1.0% m/m.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $78 per barrel on Wednesday, back to their lowest levels in nearly two months after reports that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said OPEC+ may consider increasing oil production. The group of major producers will meet on June 1 to decide on production policy for the year’s second half. The current supply agreement, which takes about 2.2 million barrels a day off the market, expires at the end of June.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed up 1.57% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.25% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.53% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.44%.

The Hang Seng (HK50) attempted to near its highest level in eight months as traders focused on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Europe this week and how trade relations will develop despite ongoing inspections of various sectors. On the fiscal front, Beijing will allocate billions of yuan to upgrade infrastructure in China’s cities over the next three years. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserves in China fell more than expected to US$3.20 trillion in April, and Hong Kong’s fell to the lowest level in six months, US $416.4 billion.

Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki repeated a warning that authorities are ready to respond to excessive currency volatility. At the same time, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said they will study the impact of yen movements on inflation to guide policy decisions. Analysts say the intervention will only give the authorities some time, given the sharp interest rate differential between Japan and the US.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,187.70 +6.96 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,884.26 +31.99 (+0.082%)

DAX (DE40) 18,430.05 +254.84 (+1.40%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,313.67 +100.18 (+1.22%)

USD Index 105.37 +0.32 (+0.32%)

Important events today:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
07 May

The RBA kept all monetary policy settings. Oil rises amid the breakdown of negotiations between Israel and Hamas

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index added 0.46%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up 1.46%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.19% yesterday.

The Dollar Index stabilized above 105 on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook in light of the central bank’s recent comments. New York Fed Chairman John Williams said decisions on interest rate cuts will be made based on incoming data. At the same time, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Chairman Thomas Barkin expressed confidence that inflation will fall to 2% as the full effect of a rate hike materializes. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 10% at the June 12 FOMC meeting and 34% at the July 31 meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.96%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.49% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.58%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading yesterday.

ECB Chief Economist Lane said the latest Eurozone data gives him confidence that inflation is returning to the ECB’s 2% target, raising the likelihood of a first interest rate cut in June. ECB Governing Council spokesman Simkus said he expects the ECB to cut interest rates three times this year, starting with a planned move in June. These are strengthening factors for European indices.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $79 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, as ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas appeared to have stalled. Hamas agreed to the mediators’ ceasefire proposal on Monday, but Israel said the terms did not meet its demands. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has supported oil prices amid concerns it could disrupt crude supplies from the region. On the demand side, Saudi Arabia raised official selling prices for its crude oil sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June amid forecasts of strong oil demand this summer.

Asian markets were mostly rising on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.50% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.55% for the day and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.70%.

Hong Kong stocks fell to 18,480 in morning deals on Thursday, falling for the first time in 11 sessions due to losses in most sectors, particularly technology, consumer discretionary, and financials. Traders profited after the Hang Seng Index hit its highest level in 8 months. Vigilance was also heightened ahead of several key data releases from China this week, including April trade and inflation data.

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the money rate unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting. The central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, acknowledging that the return of inflation to target is unlikely to be smooth. The Council added that it needs to make sure prices move towards the 2-3% range while remaining vigilant on upside risks and reiterated that it would neither rule in nor rule out anything as it would rely on data and risk assessment. In doing so, the RBA will keep an eye on the global economy, domestic demand trends, and the inflation and labor market outlook. The ASX 200 (AU200) hit a one-month high on the back of the decision.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,180.74 +52.95 (+1.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,852.27 +176.59 (+0.46%)

DAX (DE40) 18,175.21 +173.61 (+0.96%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,213.49  +41.34 (+0.51%)

USD Index 105.11 +0.08 (+0.07%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Report at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
06 May

Investors expect a hawkish stance from the RBA. Natural gas prices returned to growth

By JustMarkets 

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 1.18% (for the week +1.03%), while the S&P 500 (US500) was up 1.26% (for the week +0.27%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.99% (for the week +0.93%). The US stocks rose thanks to a weaker-than-expected April employment report, which increased expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

The US jobs report recorded a 175,000 increase in Non-farm payroll employment for April, compared to the consensus forecast of 240,000, while March data was revised slightly upward to 315,000 from 303,000. In the household survey, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, with a slight increase in employment. Average hourly earnings rose 0/2% for the month, slightly below expectations of 0.3%, with year-over-year growth slowing to 3.9% from 4.1%. The data suggests the labor market is cooling, and wage pressures are slowing. According to economists, given the current situation, the US Fed will likely start cutting rates in September.

Canada’s services PMI for April 2024 came in at 49.3, up from March’s 46.4. This is the highest reading since June but is still indicative of contraction. The slower decline in activity is partly due to a stabilization in new orders. The latest data showed no change in new work, ending eight months of contraction.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.59% (for the week +0.45%), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed Friday up 0.54% (for the week -1.42%), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.16% (for the week -1.72%), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.51% (for the week +0.90%).

The S&P Global UK Services PMI for April 2024 jumped to 55 from 53.1 the previous month, indicating a sixth consecutive period of growth at the sharpest pace in over a year. Service providers saw a sharp increase in new orders amid changing economic conditions for clients. Combined with a decline in work backlogs, business activity also increased significantly. Based on signs of recovering customer demand, upcoming marketing initiatives, and long-term expansion plans, companies remained optimistic about the outlook for business activity in the coming year.

The Eurozone unemployment rate for March 2024 was a record low of 6.5%, in line with market expectations and the previous three months. The unemployed fell by 94 thousand from the previous month to 11.087 million. Among the major Eurozone countries, Spain recorded the highest unemployment rate at 11.7%, followed by France at 7.3% and Italy at 7.2%. In contrast, Germany recorded the lowest rate of 3.2%. A year earlier, the unemployment rate was slightly higher at 6.6%.

Norges Bank (NB) kept its key interest rate unchanged at 4.5% in May 2024 for the third consecutive time, in line with market expectations, and said the rate will remain at the current level “for some time.” Norway’s central bank said monetary policy is tight enough to have a tightening effect on the economy, keeping growth low and enough to bring inflation back to target within a “reasonable time horizon.” However, policymakers noted they would be willing to hold another rate hike if monetary conditions were insufficient to bring inflation back to the bank’s target level.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose more than 5% to above $2.1 per mmbbl on Friday, nearing a three-month high thanks to rising exports and production cuts. Major energy giants like EQT and Chesapeake Energy have cut drilling and production, leading to a 9% decline in US gas output this year. Gas production fell to 98.1 Bcf/d in April from a record 105.5 Bcf/d in December 2023 and continued to decline in May.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.25% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 6.57% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.55%.

The Australian dollar holds above $0.66, which is near its strongest level in two months, as investors await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision this week. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but markets are betting it will take a more hawkish stance due to recent strong domestic inflation figures. Australia’s inflation rate fell to 3.6% in the first quarter from 4.1% in the previous quarter, slowing for the fifth consecutive quarter but beating forecasts of 3.4%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,127.79 +63.59 (+1.26%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,675.68 +450.02 (+1.18%)

DAX (DE40) 18,001.60 +105.10 (+0.59%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,213.49 +41.34 (+0.51%)

USD Index 105.08 -0.22 (-0.21%)

Important events today:
  • – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks at 15:25 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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