InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.49%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.65% and set a new all-time high. A negative factor for the indices was the strengthening of the US dollar amid hawkish comments from FOMC representatives. San Francisco Fed President Daly, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said they favor maintaining the Fed’s current restrictive policy until inflation falls to 2%.

On Wednesday, markets will wait for the minutes from the May 1 FOMC meeting to see how close the Fed is to cutting interest rates. Also, on this day, earnings results from Nvidia and Analog Devices will be examined to gauge demand for semiconductor chips.

Canada’s April inflation data will be released today. Overall, price pressures in Canada are easing. The downward trend in various CPI measures has stabilized in the second half of 2023. The core measures — core, median, and overall CPI — declined for the third consecutive month in March. The headline rate rose slightly to 2.8%, but this is not a concern, as wage growth has also slowed since the beginning of the year. The Bank of Canada meets on June 5, and there is a 40% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. A softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index report for April could bring that probability closer to 50-60%. However, even if there is significant downward progress in inflation, a rate cut is more likely in July.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.35% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.05%.

It is almost 100% likely that the ECB will reduce borrowing costs as early as June, but even after that, there is uncertainty, and many policymakers favor a cautious approach. After the June meeting, ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks cautioned against a rush to cut ECB interest rates.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $79 a barrel on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East following the death of Iran’s president in a helicopter crash and emerging health concerns for Saudi Arabia’s king. However, markets are not too worried about oil supplies from the region as there are no signs of oil supply disruptions. Investors are also cautiously anticipating the upcoming OPEC meeting on June 1 for a possible postponement of production cuts. Meanwhile, recent events such as Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries and a Houthi missile attack on a China-bound oil tanker in the Red Sea continued to pose risks to global supply.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.42%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.63%.

Australia’s inflation is declining at a slower-than-expected pace, with recent data suggesting that risks to inflation have risen slightly, minutes from the Reserve Bank’s May meeting showed. The situation prompted the Central Bank to reopen discussions on raising the interest rate, but it ultimately decided that the case for holding the rate was stronger. Policymakers reiterated that bringing inflation back to the target range of 2–3% remains their top priority. They added that the target could be reached in the second half of 2025 and the median in 2026. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to be at a level consistent with the Committee’s full employment mandate by mid-2025.

The New Zealand dollar has weakened slightly recently as traders await Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision. The Central Bank is expected to leave the official money rate at 5.5% for the 7th consecutive meeting. Market attention will thus be focused on whether it will signal that interest rate cuts could begin sooner than the mid-2025 cut indicated in February’s prognoses. Last week, data showed that the country’s two-year inflation expectations fell to the lowest level in almost three years in the second quarter, fueling speculation that the RBNZ may consider cutting rates later this year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,308.13 +4.86 (+0.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,806.77 −196.82 (−0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 18,768.96 +64.54 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,424.20 +3.94 (+0.05%)

USD Index 104.50 +0.05 (+0.05%)

• – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Trade Balance at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:05 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 16:10 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 18:45 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.34% (+1.04% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.12% (+1.34% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.07% (for the week +1.74%). The US stock indices were mixed on Friday, consolidating just below the week’s highs. Stocks received some support thanks to dovish comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said that if the outlook develops as he expects, citing a slow downshift in inflation and continued economic momentum, “then it would be appropriate for us to cut rates by the end of the year.”

Reddit (RDDT) surged over 13% after it partnered with OpenAI to bring its content to chatbot ChatGPT. According to analysts, the deal will boost Reddit’s data licensing business. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rose more than 2% on Friday after Wolfe Research added it to its alpha list, replacing Nvidia (NVDA).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.18% (for the week -0.37%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.26% (for the week -0.53%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.25% (for the week +2.01%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22% (for the week -0.16%).

Comments from Fed officials suggesting a prolonged continuation of high interest rates and ECB member Schnabel’s cautious stance on rate cuts after June contributed to the prevailing caution in European markets. The FTSE 100 Index declined on Friday as global markets also showed weakness, fueled by concerns about a prolonged continuation of high interest rates. UK money markets expect a potential 60 bps cut in interest rates by the Bank of England in 2024, with the first cut expected in August.

Gold rose to a record $2,430 an ounce on Monday after recent US economic data reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve may go for at least two rate cuts this year. Silver surpassed $30 an ounce, hitting its highest level since January 2013, thanks to higher gold prices and robust investment and industrial demand. While ETF funds have shown little interest in silver, physical buying has increased.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $80 a barrel on Monday, extending gains from last week after Iran’s state media reported the death of a leader at the crash site of a helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi, adding to political uncertainty in one of the largest oil-producing countries. The foreign minister was in the helicopter with him.

Asian markets were mostly rising last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 4.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.84%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left key lending rates unchanged during its May meeting, matching market expectations. The 1-year prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was kept at 3.45%. Meanwhile, the 5-year rate, the benchmark for real estate mortgages, was maintained at 3.95% after a record 25 bps decline in February. Both rates are at record lows amid Beijing’s attempts to stimulate economic recovery after mixed activity data in April, marked by solid industrial production growth, the lowest unemployment rate in five months, and weak retail sales.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.67, hitting four-month highs. New stimulus measures in China and bets on lower interest rates in the US boosted commodity prices, boosting sentiment in Australian markets. Later last week, China announced a broad package of measures to support the struggling real estate market, including easing mortgage lending rules and urging local governments to buy unsold homes. Domestically, investors are eagerly awaiting the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting for clues on the future path of rates.

Investors in New Zealand look forward to Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. The Central Bank is expected to leave the official money rate at 5.5% for the 7th consecutive meeting, with policymakers likely to reiterate the need to maintain restrictive policies for an extended period to bring inflation back into the 1–3% target range.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,303.27 +6.17 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,003.59 +134.21 (+0.34%)

DAX (DE40) 18,704.42 −34.39 (−0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,420.26 −18.39 (−0.22%)

USD Index 104.50 +0.05 (+0.05%)

• – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.10%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.21%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.26%. Stock indices initially set new record highs on speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates this year. But by the end of the trading day, stock indices gave up early gains. They closed lower as comments from Fed President Cleveland Mester and Richmond Fed President Barkin pushed bond yields higher when they said interest rates should remain at higher levels for a long time. In addition, signs of continued price pressures pressured stocks after the Import Price Index, excluding oil for April, rose the most in 16 months.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) closed down more than 2%, topping the Dow Jones Industrials’ list of losers, after the company projected fourth-quarter revenue of $13.40–13.60 billion, below the average consensus estimate of $13.54 billion. Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than 1% after the European Union announced an audit of the company over concerns that its algorithms illegally exploit the weakness of children to addict them to Facebook and Instagram. Walmart (WMT) closed higher by nearly 7% after reporting a 3.90% increase in US comparable sales for the first quarter, beating the consensus prognosis of 3.42%. Shares of 3M Co (MMM) closed higher by more than 3% after Vertical Research upgraded the stock to a “buy” from a “hold” rating with a $140 price target.

Overall, positive first-quarter earnings results are supporting the stock. First-quarter earnings are expected to grow 7.1% YoY, well above the pre-reporting season guidance of 3.8%.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) lost 0.82%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.63%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.56%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.09%.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $79 per barrel on Friday, helped by a recent decline in US crude inventories and growing optimism that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. EIA data showed that US crude inventories fell by 2.508 million barrels last week, declining in the second week and beating estimates for a 1.362 million barrel decline. The April data also pointed to a slowdown in the US consumer inflation, reinforcing expectations of a Fed rate cut that could support economic growth and energy demand.

The US natural gas futures rose more than 3% to $2.5/MMBtu, the highest in four months after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected increase in storage inventories. The US utilities added 70 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, below market expectations of a 76 billion cubic feet increase. However, the report also showed that the US gas inventories are 30.8% above the 5-year average. Weather prognoses point to a shift to warmer-than-normal temperatures through May 31, which will increase gas consumption by power generators to meet electricity demand for air conditioning.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.77% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.59% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.65%.

The offshore yuan slid to around 7.23 per dollar as traders reacted to mixed economic data from China. The latest data showed that industrial production rose more than expected in April, while retail sales rose less. While government incentives aimed at boosting production have shown to be effective, initiatives aimed at consumer spending, such as trade-in programs and tax cuts, have lagged behind. Further worrying is that data shows a further decline in real estate investment between January and April, raising concerns about the effectiveness of China’s real estate bailout plan. Meanwhile, China’s finance ministry auctioned its first batch of special treasury bonds on Friday, marking the start of a long-awaited economic stimulus program.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, compared to initial and market estimates of 3.9%, and accelerated from the downwardly revised growth of 2.9% in the previous three-month period. This was the fastest economic growth in exactly one year, mainly due to positive contributions from almost all sectors.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,297.10 −11.05 (−0.21%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,869.38 −38.62 (−0.10%)

DAX (DE40) 18,738.81 −130.55 (−0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,438.65 −7.15 (−0.09%)

USD Index 104.51 +0.16 (+0.16%)

• – New Zealand Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
• – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index increased by 0.88%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up 1.17%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.41%. All three indices hit all-time highs yesterday. Stocks rose on lower bond yields after US consumer prices declined as expected. In addition, reports on the US retail sales, the Empire Manufacturing Index, and the NAHB Housing Index were weaker than expected, raising the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates this year.

The US Consumer Price Index for April declined to 3.4% y/y from 3.5% y/y in March, which was in line with expectations. The Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy (core) for April declined to 3.6% y/y from 3.8% y/y in March, matching expectations and the lowest in 3 years. The US retail sales for April were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m. However, retail sales excluding autos rose by 0.2% m/m in April, which was in line with expectations. The Empire’s Index of overall business conditions in the US manufacturing sector for May unexpectedly declined by 1.3 to 15.6, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to 10.0.

Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 10% at the June 11–12 FOMC meeting and 38% at the next meeting on July 30–31.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.82%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.17%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.21%.

Yesterday’s bullish factor for the European indices was the dovish comments of ECB Governing Council representative Villeroy de Galhau, who said that Eurozone inflation data for April gives the ECB confidence that it will start cutting interest rates in June. The Eurozone industrial production for March rose by 0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.4% m/m. The European Commission predicts the Eurozone GDP growth of 0.8% in 2024, unchanged from the February estimate, and downgrades the Eurozone inflation projection for 2024 to 2.5% from the February prognosis of 2.7%.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $79 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, as a larger-than-expected decline in weekly US crude inventories supported oil prices. EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.508 million barrels last week, declining for the second week and beating prognoses for a decline of 1.362 million barrels. In addition, weak US inflation data for April bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, boosting the demand outlook. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency cut its prognosis for global demand growth this year by 140,000 barrels daily to 1.1 million.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.08%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was not trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.35%.

The flash data showed that Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.5% QoQ in Q1 2024, compared with market estimates of a 0.4% drop following a downwardly revised stagnation in the previous quarter. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, contracted for the fourth consecutive quarter (-0.7% vs. -0.4% in Q4), worse than prognoses for a 0.2% decline and the sharpest drop in three quarters, as consumers continue to cut back amid high cost of living and low wages and in the aftermath of the Noto Peninsula earthquake earlier this year.

Australia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in April 2024, compared to market prognoses and an upwardly revised 3.9% in the previous month. New data that the country’s wage growth unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter supported the RBA’s dovish outlook.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,308.15 +61.47 (+1.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,908.00 +349.89 (+0.88%)

DAX (DE40) 18,869.36 +152.94 (+0.82%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,445.80 +17.67 (+0.21%)

USD Index 104.32 −0.69 (−0.66%)

• – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 22:50 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime 

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.32%, while the Samp;P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.48%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.75%. The S&P 500 (US500) hit a 5-week high and the NASDAQ (US100) hit a 1-month high. Stocks rose on lower bond yields due to dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who said he did not think it was likely that the Fed’s next move would be a rate hike but likely the rate would be at current levels for longer.

US producer prices rose by 0.5% m/m in April 2024 after a downwardly revised 0.1% decline in March and well above estimates of 0.3%. Services prices rose by 0.6%, the highest since July, after a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in March.

The US will release its April inflation report today. Economists expect consumer inflation to increase by 0.4% monthly, while on an annualized basis, it is expected to decline slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%. Investors will assess the inflation report that price pressures are finally easing after months of sustained inflation. In addition, the year-over-year increase in oil prices has stalled, reinforcing the likelihood of a critical rate cut. Typically, rising oil prices can lead to a new bout of rising inflation; these indicators are directly correlated. Thus, if the data shows that the latest consumer price momentum was temporary and inflation has started to fall again, this could harm Treasury yields and the US dollar, giving risk assets (euro, pound, stock indices) room to rise. But any surprise in the form of increasing inflationary pressures or even higher-than-forecast figures could trigger a rise in the US dollar, hurting indices and precious metals.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.20%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose 0.78%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.16%.

Wunsch, an ECB Governing Council member, said the ECB should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates further after a likely first cut in June as “wage pressures persist, keeping service sector inflation at high levels.”

Sweden’s annual inflation rate in April 2024 fell to 3.9% from 4.1% in the previous month, below market predictions of 4.0%. This is the lowest rate since January 2022.

WTI crude prices rose to $79 a barrel on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses as wildfires in Canada threatened the country’s oil sands industry, capable of producing 3.3 million barrels daily. Oil prices were also supported by industry data that showed US crude inventories fell by 3.104 million barrels last week, beating prognoses for a 1.35 million barrel decline. Official data from the US EIA will be released later today. Meanwhile, the latest OPEC report showed that OPEC+ members exceeded the agreed limit, pumping 568,000 barrels per day last month. Despite this, OPEC remains optimistic about global oil demand, predicting growth of 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.85 million in 2025.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.32% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was 0.22% cheaper, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.30%.

The offshore yuan rose to 7.22 per dollar, rebounding from two-week lows. As expected, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its one-year medium-term lending rate at 2.5% during its May meeting. The move is part of the Central Bank’s ongoing efforts to stabilize the yuan.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.664, hitting its highest level in two months, as the dollar weakened ahead of the release of crucial US inflation data and markets bet on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year. At the same time, investors reacted to data showing an unexpected slowdown in Australian wage growth in the first quarter, which supported a dovish view of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy. Elsewhere, the annual budget was released this week, with the Australian government aiming to reduce core inflation and ease cost-of-living pressures by spending billions to cut energy bills and rents and reducing income taxes.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,246.68 +25.26 (+0.48%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,558.11 +126.60 (+0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 18,716.42 −25.80 (−0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,428.13 +13.14 (+0.16%)

USD Index 105.01 −0.20 (-0.19%)

• – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 22:20 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.21%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.29%. Rising inflation expectations weighed on stocks after the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectation rose by 26 bps to a 5-month high of 3.26% from 3.00% in March. Stocks were also impacted by hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson when he said it was appropriate for the Fed to keep interest rates in a restrictive range.

Apple (AAPL) closed higher by more than 2% after it was reported that the company is close to an agreement to use OpenAI technology in Apple’s upcoming iOS 18 mobile operating system.

Intel (INTC) shares rose more than 2% and led the Dow Jones Industrials Index after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company is negotiating a deal that would see Apollo Global Management provide more than $11 billion to build a chip factory in Ireland.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index rose by 0.42%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22%.

The CAC 40 Index (FR40) closed at 8,209 on Monday, breaking its 6-day winning streak and retreating from a record high of 8,219. On the corporate front, Airbus saw the biggest drop in shares, with its stock down 1.4%.

WTI crude oil prices held above $79 a barrel on Tuesday after rising more than 1% in the previous session, helped by concerns over possible supply disruptions in Canada. Markets feared that Canada’s wildfire season could affect the country’s 3.3 million barrels per day production capacity. In the Middle East, Iraq’s oil minister said over the weekend that the country would abide by OPEC+ policy on production cuts due at the upcoming June 1 meeting, reversing his previous statement that Iraq would not agree to any new production cuts.

Asian markets experienced both ups and downs yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.80%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.01%.

Australia will release its budget today. The government is expected to announce another annual budget surplus thanks to strong employment figures. At the same time, traders will focus on the details of the planned cost of living cuts that are said to reduce consumer inflation temporarily. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he expects the current core inflation rate of 3.6% to return to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target of 2–3% by the end of the year. If this scenario works out, the Central Bank will likely cut interest rates sooner than markets expect.

Ahead of the PBOC’s upcoming medium-term interest rate decision, the offshore yuan exchange rate is holding at 7.24 per dollar, the lowest in two weeks. Expectations are leaning towards the PBOC keeping the medium-term interest rate unchanged at 2.5% at tomorrow’s meeting — the rate has been unchanged since August 2023, when 15 basis points cut it.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,221.42 −1.26 (−0.024%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,431.51 −81.33 (−0.21%)

DAX (DE40) 18,742.22 −30.63 (−0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,414.99 −18.77 (−0.22%)

USD Index 105.22 −0.09 (-0.09%)

• – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
• – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.85%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.51%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.27%. Stock index prices found support on Thursday as bond yields fell after US weekly jobless claims rose more than expected to an 8-month high, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates earlier.

US weekly jobless claims rose 22,000 to an 8.5-month high of 231,000, indicating a weak labor market compared to expectations of 212,000. On Thursday, hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly had a slightly negative impact on equities towards the end of the day when she stated that interest rates are currently holding back the economy. Still, inflation may take “more time” to return to the Fed’s target level.

Equinix (EQIX) climbed more than 11% and topped the list of top gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting adjusted first-quarter earnings of $992 million, above the consensus forecast of $976.9 million. Airbnb (ABNB) was down more than 6% and topped the list of Nasdaq 100 losers after reporting second-quarter revenue of $2.68, weaker than the consensus forecast of $2.74 billion.

First-quarter earnings results were mostly better than expected, which is favorable for the stock. First-quarter earnings are expected to grow 6.5% YoY, well above the 3.8% forecast.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.92%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.33%.

As expected, the Bank of England (BOE) kept its key rate unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting and said the risks of continued inflation are diminishing. BOE Governor Bailey said, “It’s likely that we will need to cut the bank rate over the coming quarters and make monetary policy less restrictive over the forecast period, possibly more so than currently priced into market rates.” He added that a change in the bank rate in June “is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli.”

Precious metals prices closed higher on Thursday, with gold hitting a 1-week high and silver hitting a 2-week high. Silver prices rose on Thursday, which was a sign of stronger demand for industrial metals in China. The Chinese trade news showed that China’s exports and imports rose more than expected.

WTI crude futures climbed to $80 a barrel on Friday, rising for the third consecutive session and posting a strong weekly gain amid an improving global demand outlook and ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, which helped boost oil prices. On Thursday, data showed that China’s crude oil imports rose in April, with strong trade figures in the world’s largest crude importer signaling improving demand.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose more than 5% on Thursday to surpass $2.3 MMBtu, the highest in nearly four months. The rise was helped by a smaller-than-expected increase in gas in storage, reinforcing expectations of strong demand over the next two weeks and production cuts. The US inventories added 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, while the market had expected an increase of 87 bcf.

Asian markets were mixed on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed negative 0.34% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.30% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.22% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.06%.

Malaysia’s unemployment rate fell to 3.3% in March 2024 from 3.5% in the corresponding month last year, returning to pre-pandemic levels for the fifth consecutive month. The number of unemployed fell 3.8% year-on-year to 566.6k, while employment rose 1.9% to a record high of 16.53 million.

In New Zealand, the RBNZ is expected to keep the interest rate at 5.5% at its meeting later this month. This stance aligns with the OECD’s recent call for the central bank to maintain a restrictive policy until there are clearer signs that inflation is moving towards the target. In addition, the country’s manufacturing sector showed tentative signs of recovery in April despite the protracted economic downturn.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,214.08 +26.41 (+0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,387.76 +331.37 (+0.85%)

DAX (DE40) 18,686.60 +188.22 (+1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,381.35 +27.30 (+0.33%)

USD Index 105.23 -0.32 (-0.30%)

• – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

US stock indices showed mixed performance on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials Index hitting a 1-month high. The Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.44%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was virtually unchanged for the day. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.18% yesterday. Hawkish comments from the Fed and a rise in bond yields on Wednesday pressured stocks. On Wednesday, Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins emphasized the need to cool the US economy to meet the central bank’s 2% inflation target. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 10% for the June 12 FOMC meeting, 34% for the next meeting on July 31, and 66% for the September meeting.

Lyft shares are up more than 6% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter gross orders and forecast second-quarter gross orders above consensus. On the negative side, Uber Technologies fell more than 5% after reporting Q1 gross orders below consensus and forecasting weaker-than-expected gross orders in Q2.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.69% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.49%.

The Bank of England (BoE) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate at 5.25%, keeping the forward guidance unchanged and leaving options open regarding the timing of a rate cut. This will cause traders and investors to shift their attention to Bank of England Governor Bailey’s speech at the press conference. If the press conference does not clarify the timing of the first rate cut, the UK index will likely come under pressure. However, if Bailey hints that the first rate cut will take place in late summer, presumably at the August meeting, it could hurt to give the index an additional boost.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $79 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session. Official data showed a decline in US crude inventories, suggesting a tightening of supply. EIA data showed US crude inventories fell by 1.361 million barrels last week, a reversal from a 7.265 million barrel jump in the previous period, as refinery activity picked up. The outlook for OPEC+ production policy also remains highly uncertain ahead of the group’s June 1 meeting.

Asian markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) closed negative 1.63% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.61% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.90% for the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.14%. But mainland Chinese stocks hit new multi-month highs as investors reacted to China’s trade data for April. The data showed that Chinese imports jumped 8.4% in April from a year earlier, beating predictions of 5.4%. Exports also rose 1.5%, above the 1% increase expected by analysts. The latest data was a pleasant surprise amid growing concerns that the US may impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

Hong Kong stocks were up 0.75% in early trading on Thursday, rising for the first time in three sessions. The city is reportedly working to attract a new set of investors from Saudi Arabia to replace investors from the US and Europe at a time of rising geopolitical tensions. The move comes after China said last month it would support companies holding IPOs in Hong Kong.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,187.67 −0.03 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,056.39 +172.13 (+0.44%)

DAX (DE40) 18,498.38 +68.33 (+0.37%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,354.05 +40.38 (+0.49%)

USD Index 105.51 +0.10 (+0.09%)

• – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BOE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.