Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 35

25 Apr

Week Ahead: US500 braces for massive week of risk events

By ForexTime 

  • US500 rebounds 15% from 2025 low
  • Meta, Microsoft, Amazon & Apple make almost 20% of US500 weight
  • US GDP, PCE & NFP report could impact Fed cut bets 
  • NFP sparked moves of ↑ 1.2% & ↓ 3.2% over past year
  • Technical levels: 50-day SMA, 5500 & 5300

US-China trade developments, major economic data and big tech earnings will dominate the week ahead:

 

Sunday, 27th April 

  • CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 28th April

  • SG20: Singapore unemployment
  • CAD: Canadians head to the polls in a snap vote

Tuesday, 29th April 

  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • SPN35: Spain GDP, CPI
  • UK100: HSBC earnings
  • RUS2000: Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, 30th April    

  • AUD: Australia CPI
  • CN50: China official PMIs, Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone GDP
  • GER40: Germany CPI, GDP, unemployment
  • JP225: Japan industrial production, retail sales
  • TWN: Taiwan GDP
  • US500: US GDP, PCE price index, ADP employment, Meta, Microsoft earnings

Thursday, 1st May

  • May Day – European markets closed except UK
  • AUD: Australia trade
  • JPY: BoJ rate decision
  • UK100: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • US500: US ISM manufacturing, initial jobless claims, Amazon, Apple earnings

Friday, 2nd May

  • AUD: Australia retail sales
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI
  • JP225: Japan unemployment
  • US500: US April jobs report 

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s US500 which has rebounded 15% from its 2025 low. 

US500 W1

Note: FXTM’s US500 tracks the underlying S&P 500 index

Recently, US equities have been empowered by bets around the Fed cutting interest rates sooner than expected to prevent a recession. However, uncertainty around trade talks may impact upside gains.

Still, the US500 is over 4% this week, lingering around key resistance at 5500.

 

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant price swings:  

1) US-China trade saga

China denied having any trade talks with the United States despite Trump’s claims of progress earlier in the week. However, Trump has pushed back against China’s denial, stating that negotiations were happening.

On a brighter note, there are reports of China’s government weighing the suspension of its 125% tariffs on some US imports.

  • If this eases tensions and paves the path to actual negotiations, the US500 may jump as risk appetite improves.
  • Any signs of escalating tensions or growing uncertainty around trade developments may weigh on the US500.

 

2) Big tech earnings

Four of the so-called “Magnificent” 7 tech giants with a combined market cap of over $9 trillion are set to publish their results in the week ahead.

Quarterly results from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple could provide fresh insight into how the industry fared last quarter in the face of Trump’s tariffs. Google-parent Alphabet has already set the bar high by reporting solid earnings.

Considering that the combined weight of Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple makes up roughly 19% of the US500, the incoming earnings could spark significant price swings.

  • A solid set of results and optimistic forward guidance from tech titans may propel the US500 higher.
  • Should results disappoint and concerns expressed about the earnings outlook, the US500 could sink. 

 

3) US data dump: Q1 GDP, PCE inflation, ISM & NFP

Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut if tariffs start weighing on the US jobs market and economic growth.  

This puts extra attention on the US data dump in the week ahead, featuring Q1 GDP, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the latest NFP jobs report.

  • Wednesday 30th April – Q1 GDP, US PCE price index 

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US GDP report has triggered upside moves on the US500 of as much as 0.7% or declines of 1.7% in a 6-hour window post-release.

  • Thursday 1st April – US ISM Manufacturing 

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US ISM Manufacturing report has triggered upside moves on the US500 of as much as 1.0% or declines of 2.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

  • Friday 2nd April – US April NFP report

Note: Over the past 12 months, the US NFP report has triggered upside moves on the US500 of as much as 1.2% or declines of 3.2% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Traders are currently pricing three Fed rate cuts in 2025 with the odds of a fourth cut by December at 35%. Any major shifts to these bets may influence the US500.

  • A set of figures that support the case around the Fed cutting interest rates sooner than expected may push the US500 higher. But gains may be capped by recession fears.
  • While stronger-than-expected data may cool Fed cut bets, the US500 may rise if sentiment improves over the US economic outlook. 

 

4) Technical forces

The US500 is testing key resistance at 5500, but prices remain below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 5500 may inspire a move toward the 50-day SMA at 5637 and the 200-day SMA at 5764.
  • Sustained weakness below 5500, may drag prices back toward 5300 and 5150.
US500 3

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
25 Apr

Tourists are cancelling trips to the US – here’s how this could affect its economy

By Ross Bennett-Cook, Leeds Beckett University 

The United States is one of the top three most visited countries in the world. The big draw cards – cities such as San Francisco, New York and Chicago and national parks such as Yosemite – have attracted international tourists for decades. This combined with its role as a global business powerhouse meant it had 66.5 million visitors in 2023 – and the 2024 figure is expected to be higher still.

But a lot has changed in recent months, and 2025’s figures may not be as strong. The 2024 reelection of Donald Trump as the president of the United States and the consequential changes in foreign diplomacy and relations, alongside internal cultural shifts, are starting to change global attitudes towards the US – attitudes that appear to be affecting tourists’ desire to visit the US.

In a recent report by research firm Tourism Economics, inbound travel to the US is now projected to decline by 5.5% this year, instead of growing by nearly 9% as had previously been forecast. A further escalation in tariff and trade wars could result in further reductions in international tourism, which could amount to a US$18 billion (£13.8 billion) annual reduction in tourist spending in 2025.

There is already some evidence of travel cancellations. Since Trump announced 25% tariffs on many Canadian goods, the number of Canadians driving across the border at some crossings has fallen by up to 45%, on some days, when compared to last year. Canada is the biggest source of international tourists to the US. Air Canada has announced it is reducing flights to some US holiday destinations, including Las Vegas, from March, as demand reduces.

According to a March poll by Canadian market researcher Leger, 36% of Canadians who had planned trips to the United States had already cancelled them. According to data from the aviation analytics company OAG, passenger bookings on Canada to US routes are down by over 70% compared to the same period last year. This comes after the U.S. Travel Association warned that even a 10% reduction in Canadian inbound travel could result in a US$2.1 billion (£1.6 billion) loss in spending, putting 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk.

An unwelcoming environment?

Some would-be visitors have cited an unwelcoming political climate as part of a concern about visiting the US – including angry rhetoric about foreigners, migrants and the LGBTQ+ community. The Tourism Economics report also cited “polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric” as a factor in travel cancellations.

There are other factors that may influence travellers from, for instance, western Europe, which represented 37% of overseas travel to the US last year. These include US tariffs pushing prices up at home and the US administration’s perceived alignment with Russia in the war in Ukraine.

Canadian trips to the US are going down.

Research by YouGov in March found that western European attitudes towards the US have become more negative since Trump’s reelection last November. More than half of people in Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%) and Denmark (74%) now have an unfavourable opinion of the US. In five of the seven countries polled, figures for US favourability are at the lowest since polling began in November 2016.

Border issues

Some high-profile cases at the US border could also be putting off tourists. In March, a British woman was handcuffed and detained for more than ten days by US Customs Enforcement after a visa problem. In the same month, a Canadian tourist was detained after attempting to renew her visa at the US-Mexico border. During the 12-day detention, she was held in crowded jail cells and even put in chains.

Mexico is the US’s second largest inbound travel market. Tourism Economics suggests that issues around new border enforcement rules will raise concerns with potential Mexican tourists. During Trump’s first term in office, Mexican visits to the US fell by 3%. In February this year, air travel from Mexico had already fallen 6% when compared to 2024.

Many countries including Canada have been updating their travel advice for the US. For instance, on March 15 the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office updated its advice for the US, warning visitors that “you may be liable to arrest or detention if you break the rules”. The previous version of advice, from February, had no mention of arrest or detention. Germany has made similar updates to its travel advisory, after several Germans were recently detained for weeks by US border officials.

Multiple European countries, including France, Germany, Denmark and Norway have also issued specific travel warnings to transgender and non-binary citizens, as US authorities demand tourists declare their biological sex at birth on visa applications. This comes as the US has stopped issuing of passports with a X marker – commonly used by those identifying as non-binary – for its own citizens.

Alternative destinations

As thousands of travellers cancel their trips to the US, other destinations are seeing a spike in interest. Hotels in Bermuda have reported a surge in enquiries as Canadians relocate business and leisure trips away from the US, with some predicting a 20% increase in revenue from Canadian visits.

Europe too has reported increased bookings from Canada, with rental properties experiencing a 32% jump in summer reservations when compared to last year, according to some reports.

There are already growing concerns that visa and entry restrictions will disrupt fans and athletes from enjoying 2026 men’s Fifa World Cup, held on sites in the US, Canada and Mexico. Visitors from some countries, such as Brazil, Turkey and Colombia, could wait up to 700 days to obtain visas. The International Olympic Committee has also raised concerns over the 2028 Olympics Games in Los Angeles, although US officials have insisted that “America will be open”.

With mounting visa delays, stricter border enforcement and growing concerns over human rights and anti-minority rhetoric, the United States risks losing its appeal as a top holiday destination. The long-term impact on its tourism industry may prove difficult to reverse.The Conversation

About the Author:

Ross Bennett-Cook, PhD Researcher, Carnegie School of Sport, Leeds Beckett University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
24 Apr

IMF World Economic Outlook: economic uncertainty is now higher than it ever was during COVID

By Sergi Basco, Universitat de Barcelona 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just published its World Economic Outlook, and it does not take an expert to deduce that, even among some of the world’s top economic minds, confident predictions are currently hard to come by.

Every spring the IMF and World Bank hold their Spring Meetings in Washington DC: a week of seminars, briefings and press conferences focusing on the global economy, international development and world financial markets. At both the Spring Meetings and the Annual Meeting, held each autumn, the IMF publishes its global economic growth forecasts.

For its 2025 Spring Meeting the IMF has published a baseline forecast, as well as an addendum analysing the tariff events that took place between 9 and 14 April. According to the Fund’s report, world GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. For the euro area, growth will be 0.8% and 1.2% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

These forecasts represent a substantial downward revision from IMF figures published just three months ago. Globally, growth in 2025 is down by 0.5% compared to the Fund’s January update, with a reduction of 0.2% for the euro area.

One major shift is key to understanding the most recent IMF report and its pessimistic predictions: we live in a much more uncertain world than we did three months ago.

Trump, tariffs and uncertainty

If one had to sum up the new US tariff policy in a word, “unpredictable” would suffice, as the so-called “Liberation Day” of 2 April 2025 represented the largest tariff increase in modern history.

Just one week later, the US president then made two further announcements. First, a 90-day freeze on tariff hikes, apparently in search of bilateral agreements with the countries to which he had applied tariffs above 10%. Second, that China would be excluded from this exception, with tariffs on its products being raised to 145%.

This freeze means that until July EU goods being sold to the US will have a 10% tariff instead of the 20% that was announced on 2 April. However, the 10% applied by the new US administration is still much higher than the average tariff of 1.34% that was in force before 5 April.

But what will the tariff be after these 90 days? What about in December? What about in 2 years’ time? What goods will be exempted? How far will the trade war between China and the US go? The answer to all of these questions is: nobody knows. This uncertainty is evident in of the IMF’s spring forecast.

Uncertainty is off the charts

The IMF’s world trade uncertainty index is currently 7 times higher than it was in October 2024, much higher than in the pandemic.

As far as the economy is concerned, this uncertainty is far worse than a high but definitive tariff. With a tariff, companies can at least reorganise their production chain, and consumers can look for alternative products. There is a cost, but at least businesses and consumers can plan for it.

However, nobody can calculate these costs today because nobody knows how tariffs will evolve. An American company may decide today to buy a particular product from the EU thinking that the tariff will be 10%, but upon the product’s arrival in the US it turns out the tariff has risen to 100% because a presidential advisor said it would be good for the US economy to raise tariffs on that product.

Unbelievable though it may sound, this appears to be how the tariffs are being decided and enacted. According to one account, the US Treasury and Commerce Secretaries were only able to persuade Trump to freeze recent tariff hikes because Peter Navarro – the president’s economic advisor and tariff ideologue – was in another room at the time.

The end result of this unpredictability is that the best course of action, for consumers and businesses alike, is inaction.

Fear and volatility

It is no surprise that these constant changes of plans are causing great instability in financial markets. Although Trump may have triumphantly celebrated rising stock prices immediately after the tariff freeze was announced, financial markets are now subject to levels of uncertainty and fear similar to those seen during COVID-19.

Five years ago, volatility was associated with increased demand for US government debt due to the “flight to safety” effect: investors selling higher risk investments and buying safer assets, such as gold and government bonds, in times of uncertainty.

Now we are seeing the exact opposite. The price of US bonds has fallen since “Liberation Day”, and this means that investors are selling them. In other words, markets no longer believe that US government debt is a safe asset. Given the role of the dollar and US debt in international markets, this paradigm shift may generate even more financial instability down the line.

Supply chains are breaking (again)

COVID-19, the last major global economic crisis, has one thing in common with the current situation: disruption of global supply chains. During the pandemic it was confinement that forced production to stop. Today, it is the imposition of tariffs.

However, there is another major difference. During COVID people knew it was a matter of time before vaccines became available and normality returned. Today, instability in financial markets comes not from any virus, but from President Trump’s own advisors selling him all manner of plans to protect US economic interests.The Conversation

About the Author:

Sergi Basco, Profesor Agregado de Economia, Universitat de Barcelona

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
24 Apr

The focus of investors’ attention remains on the US tariff policy

By JustMarkets 

As of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.07%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.67%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 2.28%. Easing trade tensions between the US and China and President Trump’s assurances that he will not remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell continue to boost sentiment.

The first-quarter earnings reporting season is in full swing. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, market consensus expects first-quarter annualized first-quarter earnings growth of 6.7% for S&P 500 stocks, down from expectations of 11.1% in early November. Boeing (BA) rose more than 6% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting first-quarter revenue of $19.50 billion, better than the consensus expectations of $19.37 billion. Intel (INTC) closed higher by more than 6% after Bloomberg reported that the company plans to cut more than 20% of its workforce to streamline operations. Tesla (TSLA) shares rose by 5.4% after CEO Elon Musk announced that he will significantly reduce his involvement in the government to focus on running his companies.

The Canadian dollar weakened to US$1.39, down from a six-month high of US$1.38 on April 22, as it came under pressure from a recovering US dollar. Meanwhile, the IMF’s downgrade of Canada’s 2025 GDP expectations to 1.4% has renewed concerns about domestic demand, limiting Lonnie’s upside potential. And the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep the benchmark rate at 2.75% reflects caution amid the unclear outlook for US tariffs, which could either support sustainable growth with inflation around 2% or, if tariffs intensify, create the risk of recession and higher inflation.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 3.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 2.13% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.52%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.90%. European stocks closed sharply higher on Wednesday, following strong momentum in stock markets around the world after the US presidential administration signaled that tariffs against China are likely to be reduced or eliminated soon.

WTI crude prices fell below $62.6 a barrel on Wednesday, down 9% since early April, amid the likelihood that OPEC+ will continue to increase supply in the coming months. Key OPEC+ member Kazakhstan has said it will put national interests ahead of OPEC+ rules, signaling increased production for a key pool of consumers and raising tensions between cartel members as many countries fight to keep production below their quotas. That prompted individual cartel members to call for another production increase in June, adding to surprise plans to raise output three times faster than expected in May.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.89% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 1.33%.

Consumer sentiment in New Zealand rose to a 4-month high. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose by 5 points to 98.3 in April, the highest reading since December, reinforcing a recovery that had begun to falter. The rise in the index was broad-based, with the current Conditions Index and future Conditions Index rising by 6 and 4 points, respectively.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,375.86 +88.10 (+1.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,606.57 +419.59 (+1.07%)

DAX (DE40) 21,961.97 +668.44 (+3.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,403.18 +74.58 (+0.90%)

USD Index 98.87 +0.95 (+0.96%)

News feed for: 2025.04.24

  • German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
23 Apr

IMF warns that US tariffs portend a slowdown in global economic growth

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 2.66% at Tuesday’s close. The S&P500 Index (US500) added 2.51%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.63%. US stocks rose on Tuesday as hopes of an easing trade war between the US and China lifted investor sentiment after a sharp drop the previous day. Meanwhile, concerns over President Trump’s attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell persisted, contributing to recent market volatility.

Technology stocks led the rise, with Tesla shares up 4.6% ahead of its earnings release, although the company has fallen 40% in the period since. On the earnings side, General Electric shares jumped 6.1% after the release of results, while Verizon shares added 0.6% after the earnings release.

Producer prices for manufactured goods (a leading indicator of consumer inflation) in Canada rose by 0.5% month-over-month in March 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in February and above market forecasts expecting a 0.3% increase. This marked the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Excluding energy and petroleum products, CPI rose by 1%. On an annualized basis, producer prices rose by 4.7%.

The IMF has warned that rising tariffs in the US mark the start of a new global era of slowing growth. President Trump has imposed massive import duties since January, triggering retaliatory tariffs and raising trade barriers to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF has cut its global growth forecast 2024 to 2.8% from 3.3% and expects further weakening through 2026. The US will be hit hardest, with growth in 2025 falling to 1.8 % from 2.7 %. Mexico, China, and the Eurozone will also feel the effects. Although Trump claims the tariffs will revive US manufacturing, the IMF believes the real cause of job losses is automation, not trade. It warns that tariffs will hurt innovation and competitiveness in the long term.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.56% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.64% higher yesterday. On Tuesday, European stocks reversed early losses. They closed higher, benefiting from a rebound in US stocks as markets continued to assess how the risks of reduced trade relations with the US could affect European corporate giants. Automakers were among the session’s top gainers, with Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volkswagen adding more than 2%. Banks, meanwhile, rose steadily, with BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo, and ING adding around 1.5%. However, UniCredit fell nearly -3% after the Italian government placed restrictions on the lender’s bid to acquire Banco BPM. On the earnings side, L’Oreal shares rose more than 6% after posting strong results.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) are down nearly 1% to $32.30 an ounce on Tuesday as investors lock in profits after the precious metal’s strong rally. The pullback came after recent gains driven by safe-haven demand amid growing concerns about the impact of escalating trade tensions on the global economy. Market sentiment worsened due to stalled trade talks between the US and China, with Beijing accusing Washington of abusing tariffs and warning other countries against unilateral deals.

WTI crude prices rose above $64 a barrel on Wednesday, extending gains of more than 2% from the previous session, helped by new US sanctions and a sharp decline in crude inventories. The US has imposed new restrictions on a key Iranian figure supplying liquefied natural gas and crude oil. Meanwhile, industry data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, which could be the largest decline since November.

Asian markets traded flat. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.17% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.78%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.03%.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.4% in March 2025 from 1.5% in the previous month, the lowest since February 2021 and below market forecasts of 1.6%. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative expenses, rose to 1.9% y/y, holding steady for the second month and remaining at the lowest level in six months.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 was 0.9%, unchanged from the previous month but slightly below market expectations of 1%. The rate remained at its lowest level since February 2021.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,287.76 +129.56 (+2.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,186.98 +1,016.57 (+2.66%)

DAX (DE40) 21,293.53 +87.67 (+0.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,328.60 +52.94 (+0.64%)

USD index 98.99 +0.71 (+0.72%)

News feed for: 2025.04.23

  • Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
22 Apr

Trump lashed out at the US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell with criticism. Energy prices are falling

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 2.48% on Monday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 2.36%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell 2.46%. The US stocks fell sharply on Monday after President Trump stepped up criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, heightening concerns about the Central Bank’s independence and undermining investor confidence. All 11 sectors ended trading in the negative, with technology, consumer discretionary, and energy stocks the hardest hit. In his Truth social media post, Trump called Powell “Mr. Too Late, a major lose” and demanded an immediate rate cut, just days after he said his team might consider removing Powell from his post. Uncertainty over global trade, especially with China, further weighed on sentiment as talks made little progress.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to $1.38 in April, hitting a six-month high, as investors digested the Bank of Canada’s recent decision, coupled with a weaker US dollar. The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75%, citing the unclear outlook for tariffs in the US, which could either support solid growth with inflation around 2% or, if tariffs intensify, trigger a recession and higher inflation. In addition, China’s 90% cut in US oil imports has caused more than a quarter of its demand for offshore crude to shift to Canadian barrels.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 19.6 per dollar, a near six-month high, helped by general weakness in the US dollar, exacerbated by relatively high Banxico interest rates. The peso was bolstered by a “very productive” conversation between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum, which allayed fears of new tariffs on steel, cars, and tomatoes, as well as steady oil export revenues that continue to boost Mexico’s trade receipts.

Equity markets in Europe were not trading on Friday and Monday.

WTI crude prices fell by 2.5% to $63.1 a barrel on Monday as easing tensions between the US and Iran raised the likelihood that more Iranian oil would return to the market. Talks between the two sides have made “very good progress”, and a framework for a potential nuclear deal is planned.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 5% to $3.0/MMBtu, the lowest level since late January, as record production and projections for milder weather lowered demand expectations. At the same time, uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policy change has raised concerns about a slowing global economy and lower energy demand.

Asian markets traded without a single dynamic. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) and the ASX 200 (AU200) were not trading on Friday and Monday.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is encouraging state-owned enterprises to use the yuan for payments and settlements in overseas transactions, seeking to expand the currency’s use globally amid ongoing trade tensions. The PBoC said it will strengthen the cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS), promote the implementation of blockchain to ensure the security and efficiency of global settlement services, and support the Shanghai Gold Exchange in cooperation with overseas exchanges to expand the use of yuan reference prices in major global markets.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.64 on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in four months, as renewed criticism of the Federal Reserve from President Trump undermined investor confidence in US assets. Frustration over stalled global trade talks also weighed on sentiment, as China strongly opposes Trump’s tariff demands. On the domestic front, traders are increasingly betting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates at its May meeting. While a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected, some are pricing in a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut amid growing fears of a global economic slowdown caused by trade tensions.

Markets still expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut its 3.5% monetary rate by 25 bps in May, with a further cut to 2.75% by the end of the year. In terms of economic news, trade data for March showed New Zealand exports up 19% year-on-year, while imports rose 12%. These trends contributed to a double trade surplus of $970 million, the largest since the pandemic in 2020.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,158.20 −124.50 (−2.36%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,170.41 −971.82 (−2.48%)

DAX (DE40) 21,205.86 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.66 0 (0%)

USD Index 98.32 −1.06 (−1.06%)

News feed for: 2025.04.22

  • New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Apr

Today is Good Friday — most financial markets will be closed

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.33%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.13%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed at opening levels. The US stocks closed mixed ahead of the Good Friday holiday as investors weighed trade talks and interest rate uncertainty. A decline in weekly jobless claims indicates a resilient labor market, although attention remains focused on trade talks and monetary policy signals. The US initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 from the previous week to 215,000 in the second week of April, contrary to market expectations of a 1,000 increase to 225,000, the lowest in two months.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.60%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.01%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index remained in negative territory after the ECB cut rates in an expected move to cushion the economy from tariff-related tensions.

The ECB cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the main refinancing rate to 2.40%, the deposit rate to 2.25%, and the marginal lending facility to 2.65%, as expected. The decision reflects growing confidence that inflation is on track for a sustained return to the 2% target. The ECB acknowledged that growth prospects have weakened and emphasized that further action will depend on the data. European markets will be closed for Easter through Monday and will reopen on Tuesday, April 22.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.5% on Thursday to settle at $64.70 a barrel, marking the second straight session of gains. The rise followed new US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, adding to fears of a tightening global supply. The sanctions hit Iran’s oil sector and a refinery in China, increasing pressure on Tehran amid nuclear tensions. Supply concerns were further heightened after OPEC+ said it had received updated plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries for additional production cuts.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.35%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.61%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.78%. The recovery in Asian indices followed a rise in US futures after President Trump claimed “great progress” in talks aimed at helping Japan avoid a tariff hike. Investor sentiment was also boosted after Chinese President Xi Jinping called for regional unity and the creation of an “Asian family” during his tour of Southeast Asia.

The New Zealand dollar fell to US$0.593 on Friday, retreating from a five-month high and snapping a seven-day winning streak, as expectations of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand dampened momentum. This came despite stronger-than-expected first-quarter consumer inflation data, while core inflation figures declined. With price pressures contained and remaining within the RBNZ’s target range, markets still expect a rate cut in May and a reduction in the cash rate to 2.75% by the end of the year.

The Australian dollar slid to US$0.637 on Friday, breaking a seven-day winning streak in thin trading as local markets were closed due to the Good Friday holiday. The decline followed weaker-than-expected domestic employment data earlier in the week, which reinforced expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to growth of 5% in the previous quarter. This is the slowest growth rate in a year, driven by weaker growth in services (5.2% vs. 5.4% in Q4), construction (14.5% vs. 20.7%), and manufacturing (4.2% vs. 4.4%). In quarterly terms, the economy contracted by 3.7% after growing by 2.7% in Q4.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,282.64 +6.94 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,142.11 −527.28 (−1.33%)

DAX (DE40) 21,205.86 −105.16 (−0.49%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.66 +0.061 (+0.01%)

USD Index 99.39 +0.01 (+0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.04.18

  • Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
17 Apr

The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate unchanged. In New Zealand, there is an increase in inflation

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.73%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 2.24%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 3.04%. Wall Street faced a broad sell-off on Wednesday, led by a sharp drop in technology stocks amid escalating trade tensions and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Nvidia fell by 6.9% after the chipmaker said it will have to pay $5.5 billion because of new restrictions on US exports of artificial intelligence chips destined for China. Other chipmakers followed: AMD (-7.3%) and Micron Technology (-2.4%) fell amid cost warnings and weak demand. Powell’s speech in Chicago added to market worries, warning that tariffs could push up inflation and slow growth, creating a dilemma for the Fed’s dual mandate. Investors were frustrated by the lack of a clear signal of future rate cuts, causing major indexes to fall to session lows.

The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at 2.75%, its first pause after a cumulative 2.25 percentage point cut over seven meetings, citing the unclear outlook for tariffs in the US, which could either support solid growth with inflation near 2% or, if tariffs intensify, trigger a recession and higher inflation. This cautious stance has reinforced expectations of stable monetary policy in Canada, which has supported the Canadian dollar, while the US dollar is weakening under the weight of potential new tariffs on critical minerals, adding further uncertainty to the US growth outlook.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that global trade could contract by 1.5% in 2025 if Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies cause widespread trade uncertainty, in sharp contrast to the previous expectations of 2.7% growth.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.07% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.49%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.32%.

WTI crude oil prices hit $63 per barrel as new US sanctions against Chinese importers of Iranian oil renewed supply concerns. The sanctions are aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports as nuclear talks resume, fueling fears of dwindling global supplies. Prices were further supported by an OPEC report that Iraq, Kazakhstan, and other countries are planning additional production cuts to offset previous overproduction.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.48%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.91%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.04%.

New Zealand’s annualized inflation rate rose to 2.5% in the first quarter, slightly above market expectations of 2.3%, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Despite the rise, the rate was within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range of 1-3% for the third consecutive quarter, reinforcing the view that this will not prevent further rate cuts. Markets still expect another 25bp rate cut at the next RBNZ meeting in May, with rates likely to reach the 2.75% level by the end of the year.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar slipped to USD 0.635, breaking a six-day winning streak, as weaker-than-expected employment data fueled expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. While the unemployment rate remained at a low 4.1%, employment growth in March came in below expectations. This boosted bets that the RBA would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, with some even speculating a possible 50 basis point hike amid growing fears of a tariff-induced slowdown in the global economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,275.70 −120.93 (−2.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,669.39 −699.57 (−1.73%)

DAX (DE40) 21,311.02 +57.32 (+0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,275.60 +26.48 (+0.32%)

USD Index 99.31 −0.91 (−0.90%)

News feed for: 2025.04.17

  • New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Rate Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Report at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
16 Apr

China data beat expectations. Inflationary pressures in Canada continue to ease

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.38%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.17%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.18%. The three major US stock indices ended mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed a fresh batch of corporate earnings and lingering concerns over tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. President Trump said China should return to the negotiating table to ease tariffs, emphasizing the importance of US consumer demand. Markets rose on Monday on hopes of a pause in tariffs on automobiles and exemptions for some technology goods. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department has begun inspecting imports of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, signaling that new tariffs may be imposed.

Canada’s annualized inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 2.3% from an eight-month high of 2.6% in the previous month, below market expectations, which had expected inflation to remain at 2.6%, and below the Central Bank’s projections of 2.5%. The decline marked the beginning of a normalization of the Bank of England’s inflation prognoses for this year, after the end of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Harmonized Tax (HST) exemptions in the middle of last month caused core inflation to rise 0.6 percentage points. Gasoline prices declined (-1.6% vs. 5.1% in February) amid an aggressive fall in crude oil prices after OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase production, leading to a slowdown in transportation inflation (1.2% vs. 3%).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.43%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.86% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.41%. European equities closed solidly higher on Tuesday, extending last session’s sharp gains, after the prospect that the US may suspend the imposition of tariffs on cars and parts supported key sectors of the European economy.

WTI crude oil prices slipped toward $61 a barrel amid signs of weakening demand and a potential supply glut. The International Energy Agency sharply lowered its demand expectations for 2025, warning that the global glut could persist until 2026. OPEC and EIA also lowered their estimates due to slowing growth, trade tensions, and lower fuel consumption. Trump’s tariff war has raised concerns about slowing global growth, especially in the US and China, major oil consumers.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.84% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.17%.

The Reuters Tankan Sentiment Index for manufacturers in Japan jumped to positive 9 in April 2025 from negative 1 in March, the highest reading since August last year. Despite favorable current sentiment, the outlook for the next three months has deteriorated due to growing concerns over US trade policy. The index is expected to fall to zero as Japan prepares to impose 10% tariffs on US exports and 25% tariffs on automobiles. Export-oriented industries, especially automobile and machinery, are bracing for falling orders and rising customer caution.

China’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, maintaining the same pace as in the fourth quarter and exceeding market expectations of 5.1%. This was the highest annualized growth rate in the past 1.5 years amid Beijing’s continued economic stimulus. China’s industrial production in March 2025 grew 7.7% y/y, exceeding market expectations of 5.6% and accelerating from the 5.9% growth recorded in January-February. This was the strongest growth in industrial production since June 2021. In addition, retail sales posted the fastest growth since December 2023 and beat market projections. On the labor side, the unemployment rate declined in March 2025 from the two-year high recorded in the previous month. These positive results were largely underpinned by ongoing stimulus policies aimed at strengthening the Chinese economy. Despite the positive data, escalating trade tensions between the US and China are clouding the outlook. Recently, US President Trump launched an investigation into new tariffs on imports of key minerals that are largely sourced from China, raising fresh concerns.

India’s annual inflation rate for March 2025 fell to 3.34% from 3.61% in the previous month, well below market expectations for an unchanged rate, and marked the fifth consecutive slowdown in inflation to its lowest level since August 2019. The decline pushed inflation further below the Reserve Bank of India’s average target of 4%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,396.63 −9.34 (−0.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,368.96 −155.83 (−0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 21,253.70 +298.87 (+1.43%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,249.12 +114.78 (+1.41%)

USD Index 100.15 +0.51 (+0.51%)

News feed for: 2025.04.16

  • China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • Canada BoC Rate Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • Canada BOC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
15 Apr

Investors welcome tariff reliefs. Demand for safe assets is decreasing

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.78%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.79%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.57%. The US stocks rose on Monday after a volatile week as investors welcomed temporary tariff relief. Apple and Dell shares rose by 2.2% and 4%, respectively. Automakers also rose after Trump signaled a potential easing of 25% tariffs on cars, noting that companies need more time to move production to the US. Shares of Ford, GM, Stellantis, and Rivian jumped 3–6%, Tesla rose, and Toyota and Honda added more than 1%. Goldman Sachs added 1.9% after reporting strong quarterly earnings.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.85%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed 2.37% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 2.14% higher. European stocks rose sharply on Monday after US President Trump announced a temporary pause in imposing retaliatory tariffs on a range of computers and consumer electronics products. Banks and insurance companies rose as Eurozone bonds rose and yield spreads between its members narrowed, with BNP Paribas, UniCredit, Santander, and Munich Re up 6.5–4%.

Swiss producer and import prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, the same pace as the previous month. This marked the 23rd consecutive period of producer price deflation and the softest pace in the sequence.

WTI crude oil prices hovered near $61.5 a barrel on Tuesday amid news of a possible easing of restrictions on Iranian oil and a temporary postponement of tariffs imposed by the US Nuclear talks between the US and Iran, which have been described as “constructive,” have raised hopes of increased Iranian oil exports, putting downward pressure on prices. However, OPEC revised its 2025–26 demand growth projections downward by 100,000 bpd to reflect lower consumption due to US tariffs, although it still expects growth of 1.3 million bpd a year.

Silver prices fell to around $32 an ounce on Monday, breaking a three-day rally, as easing trade tensions reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Market attention is now focused on upcoming trade talks between the US and key partners, including Japan, India, and South Korea. Silver has gained over 8% in the previous three sessions as heightened trade tensions and concerns over the US economic outlook have caused investors to turn to alternative assets.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 1.34%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar climbed as high as USD 0.635, posting a fifth consecutive session of gains as improving global risk appetite fueled the rally. On the domestic front, minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) April meeting failed to provide clarity on the timing of the next interest rate change. Policymakers pointed to heightened uncertainty both at home and abroad, making future policy decisions data-driven.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around 0.590 of the US dollar on Tuesday, rising for a sixth straight session and hitting its highest level since early December 2024, as risk sentiment continued to improve. Investors await the release of key economic data this week, including the first-quarter consumer inflation report and the March trade balance, to gain a better understanding of price pressures and overall economic conditions. Following the RBNZ’s recent rate cut to 3.5%, investors are expecting further signs of a slowing economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,405.97 +42.61 (+0.79%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,524.79 +312.08 (+0.78%)

DAX (DE40) 20,954.83 +580.73 (+2.85%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,134.34 +170.16 (+2.14%)

USD Index 99.71 −0.40 (−0.40%)

News feed for: 2025.04.15

  • Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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