InvestMacro

The US stocks closed mostly higher on Monday as trade talks between the US and China began in London, reviving hopes for a tariff truce. At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.03%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.09%. The Nasdaq technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.31%. The prospect of a breakthrough contributed to improved market sentiment: consumer, commodity, and technology stocks rose, while financial companies lagged behind.

The US consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell to 3.2% in May 2025 from 3.6% in April, the lowest level in the last three months. At the same time, inflation expectations for the three-year horizon fell by 0.2% to 3.0%, and inflation expectations for the five-year horizon fell by 0.1% to 2.6%.

The Mexican peso rose to 19.10 per US dollar, its strongest level in the last nine months, thanks to the Bank of Mexico’s hawkish expectations and a softer US dollar. In May, core inflation rose to 4.42%, the highest level in six months, while headline inflation accelerated to 4.06%, an 11-year high, limiting the possibility of a rate cut in the near future.

European stock markets were mostly lower yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.54%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.17%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.03%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.06%. In Europe, markets are preparing for a tense week, with the release of US inflation data and final CPI data for Germany, France, Spain, and Italy, which could influence expectations regarding Central Bank actions. In May 2025, UK retail sales rose by only 0.6% in comparable prices, significantly below market expectations of 2.7% growth, compared to April’s 6.8% increase. This is the slowest pace of growth in the last six months, as rising prices and higher monthly bills continue to put pressure on household budgets.

On Monday, WTI crude oil prices rose to $65 per barrel, the highest in two months, thanks to optimism about trade talks between the US and China and seasonal demand growth. The peak summer travel season is approaching, which typically increases fuel consumption and supports prices. Geopolitical tensions added pressure to prices as Russia launched major drone and missile strikes on Kyiv after Ukraine struck Russian air bases, increasing the risk of expanded sanctions on Russian energy exports.

Asian markets traded without a single trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.92%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.63%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.27%.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to 0.603 US dollars, reversing the previous session’s gains, as the US dollar regained strength on optimism about trade negotiations between the US and China. It is widely expected that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will slow the pace of rate cuts despite the deterioration in economic expectations. The policy decision in May signaled that the easing cycle may be coming to an end, and markets now expect the RBNZ to keep rates on hold in July and possibly make a final cut in August.

The NAB Business Confidence Index in Australia rose to 2 in May 2025 from negative 1 in April, turning positive for the first time since January and reaching its highest level in four months. Sentiment improved in most sectors, except for manufacturing, mining, and wholesale trade. However, business conditions deteriorated again (0 vs. 2 in April). The Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.5% month-on-month to 92.6 in June 2025, slowing sharply from 2.2% growth in May amid ongoing uncertainty over global trade. Nevertheless, this is the fourth increase this year, driven by the Reserve Bank’s May rate cut and signs of easing inflation.

The US stocks rose on Friday. This was helped by a stronger-than-expected employment report and renewed optimism about trade negotiations between the US and China. At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.05% (+1.30% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 1.30% (+1.76% for the week). The Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed higher by 0.99% (+2.31% for the week). The labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding forecasts and easing concerns about an imminent slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, Trump offered a glimmer of optimism on the trade front, announcing that US-China talks would resume next week in London. Nevertheless, President Donald Trump called on Fed Chairman Powell to cut interest rates by a full percentage point, calling it “rocket fuel” for the economy.

In May, only 8,800 jobs were added to the Canadian labor market, and the unemployment rate rose to 7%, the highest since late 2021, indicating that manufacturers are beginning to feel the impact of US tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automobiles. This tension in the labor market contrasts sharply with earlier signs of resilience, such as 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter and a steady increase in retail sales, which prompted the Bank of Canada to keep its benchmark rate at 2.75% with no signs of an imminent cut.

European stock markets were mostly up on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.08% (+1.84% for the week), while the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.19% (+1.17% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.31% (+0.97% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.30% (+0.75% for the week). In Europe, the ECB cut rates as expected, but President Christine Lagarde signaled that the easing cycle may be nearing its end. Meanwhile, disappointing data on exports and industrial production from Germany weighed on sentiment.

WTI oil prices rose 1.9% to $64.60 per barrel on Friday, rising more than 6.5% for the first time in three weeks. The rally was fueled by renewed optimism after the resumption of trade talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which raised hopes for stronger global demand. Sentiment also improved after news that Canada had also entered into direct trade talks with the US.

Asian markets rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 3.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.96% over the past week.

China’s trade surplus rose sharply to US$103.22 billion in May 2025, compared to US$81.74 billion in the same period a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of US$101.3 billion, as exports rose and imports fell more than expected. Exports rose 4.8% year-on-year to US$316.1 billion, slightly below market expectations of 5.0%, and down sharply from the 8. Meanwhile, imports fell to 3.4% y/y to US$212.9 billion, which was stronger than the expected decline of 0.9%, following a decline in April. Meanwhile, imports fell 3.4% y/y to US$212.9 billion, which was stronger than the expected decline of 0.9%, following a 0.2% decline in April.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.651 on Monday, continuing its rise from the previous week amid optimism about trade talks between the US and China. The talks come at a critical time for both economies, as China struggles with deflation and ongoing trade uncertainty continues to dampen business and consumer confidence in the US. In Australia, a leading economist called on the central bank to make a bold 35 basis point interest rate cut at its July meeting, exceeding the standard 25 basis point cut made in February and May. This recommendation came amid sluggish economic growth and low consumer spending, which are hindering a more robust recovery in the private sector.

Japan’s service sector business activity index rose to 44.4 in May 2025 from 42.6 in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of 43.9. Despite the increase, the overall decline has continued for the fifth consecutive month. The corporate trends index also declined, driven by weakness in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the economic outlook index rose to 44.8 in May from 42.7 in April, supported by expectations of summer bonuses and wage increases.

Wall Street closed lower on Thursday as investors grappled with the public feud between President Trump and Elon Musk, renewed trade uncertainty between the US and China, and growing signs of weakness in the labor market. At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) index fell by 0.25%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.53%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology index closed down 0.80%. Tesla shares fell by 14.3% after Trump criticized Musk for his disagreement with a major tax and spending bill, suggesting that he could revoke government contracts and subsidies for Musk’s companies. Meanwhile, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 247,000 last week, the highest in eight months, heightening concerns about a slowdown in labor market growth. Economists expect the May employment report to show an increase of 125,000 jobs, which is lower than the previous month and will keep the three-month average at 162,000.

Stock markets in Europe traded without a single trend yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.19%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.18%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.73%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.11% on Thursday. European stocks rose on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year. The ECB lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points and revised its inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downward. Although the rate cut was largely anticipated, the sharper-than-expected downward revision of the inflation forecast for 2026 took some market participants by surprise. ECB President Lagarde acknowledged that the inflation outlook remains more uncertain than usual.

WTI crude oil prices traded around $63 per barrel on Friday, targeting a weekly gain of 4% — the first in three years — thanks to optimism about peak seasonal demand despite lingering concerns about oversupply. However, the bullish momentum weakened after Saudi Arabia signaled the need for a significant increase in production, calling on OPEC+ to raise output by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly in September to meet summer demand.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) held steady at around $36 per ounce on Friday, trading at their highest levels since February 2012, as weak US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s “dovish” outlook continued to stimulate demand for safe-haven assets. Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have intensified after a series of disappointing indicators. The latest data showed an increase in jobless claims, a decline in private sector employment, and an unexpected slowdown in service sector activity, all pointing to signs of a softening labor market. Investors will now turn their attention to the upcoming non-farm payrolls report for further clarity on the economic outlook.

Asian markets traded without a clear trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.07%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.03% on Thursday.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar held onto its recent gains, reaching $0.604 and remaining close to an eight-month high, thanks to renewed optimism about easing trade tensions, which reduced risks for the export-dependent currency. A telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which the two leaders agreed to resume trade talks, contributed to the positive sentiment. Domestically, markets expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady in July, while the probability of a rate cut in August is around 70%, potentially the last cut in this easing cycle.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.24% in May 2025, a four-month high, from 3.12% in April. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose to 3.33% from 3.14%, the highest since October 2023.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut its key repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.50% at its May meeting — more than the market had expected, which was anticipating a 25-basis-point cut — and shifted its policy stance from accommodative to neutral. As a result of Friday’s meeting, the total rate cut since February amounted to 100 basis points, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since August 2022. This decision was driven by lower inflation and ongoing uncertainty regarding global trade tensions.

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.22%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.01%. The Nasdaq (US100) Tech Index closed up 0.32%. Investors digested a sharp slowdown in private sector employment growth, as the ADP report showed only 37,000 new jobs in May, significantly below expectations and the lowest figure in two years. This data cast a shadow over the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report, raising concerns that trade policy uncertainty is putting pressure on the labor market. Activity in the services sector also declined in May, further heightening concerns about the broader economic outlook. Meanwhile, President Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% and lashed out at Fed Chairman Powell, renewing pressure for interest rate cuts. Hopes for a resolution to trade relations between the US and China dimmed as Trump called Xi Jinping “extremely difficult to work with.”

The Bank of Canada unexpectedly left its base interest rate unchanged at 2.75% in its June 2025 decision (more than 60% of correspondents expected a 0.25% rate cut), which was the second rate hold after a 2.25% point cut in seven consecutive decisions. The Governing Council noted that the ongoing increase and decrease in various US tariffs, combined with the highly uncertain outcome of bilateral trade negotiations and tariff rates remaining significantly above early 2025 levels, create risks of slower growth and raise inflation expectations, which requires caution regarding the continuation of monetary policy easing. The Canadian dollar strengthened to $1.37 per US dollar, its highest level in nearly eight months.

European stock markets traded without a single trend yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.77%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.53%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) lost 0.19%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.16%. European stocks rose on Wednesday, thanks to new tax stimulus measures and progress in trade negotiations between the EU and the US. The German DAX Index rose to a new record high after the government approved a €46 billion tax relief package for the period 2025–2029, aimed at supporting businesses and reviving economic growth. In corporate news, Airbus shares soared more than 4% after reports that Chinese airlines are considering ordering up to 300 aircraft, with a potential deal likely to be concluded as early as next month during a planned visit by European leaders to Beijing.

Silver prices held steady at around $34.50 per ounce on Thursday, reaching their highest level in seven months, as a wave of disappointing economic data from the US put pressure on the dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

WTI oil prices fell more than 1% to below $63 per barrel as Saudi Arabia said it may demand a significant increase in production, heightening concerns about oversupply in the global oil market. The kingdom is reportedly seeking for OPEC+ to increase production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September, seeking to capture market share during peak summer demand. This comes after an increase in production for July was announced over the weekend.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.80%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0. 60%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.89%.

Nominal wages in Japan rose 2.3% year-on-year in April 2025, in line with the pace seen in March but below market expectations of 2.6% growth. Meanwhile, real wages, adjusted for inflation and a key indicator of consumer purchasing power, fell by 1.8%, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The weak real wage data underscores the ongoing problem of persistent inflation, which continues to outpace wage growth.

Australia’s trade surplus narrowed to 5.41 billion Australian dollars compared to a slightly revised figure of 6.89 billion Australian dollars in the previous month and below market expectations of 5.90 billion Australian dollars, as exports declined and imports rose. Exports fell 2.4% from the previous month to 44.08 billion Australian dollars. Meanwhile, imports rose by 1.1% to 38.66 billion Australian dollars, recovering from a revised 2.4% decline in the previous month.

The US stocks rose on Monday, starting June with growth, despite heightened tensions in global trade. At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.08%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.41%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher at 0.67%. Tensions between the US and China have risen again after Beijing responded to US accusations of violating the tariff truce by accusing Washington of doing so. Markets are watching for a possible conversation this week between President Trump and Chinese President Xi, which could be decisive in clarifying the trade situation.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 19.2 per US dollar, its highest level in eight months, largely reflecting the weakening of the US dollar amid renewed trade restrictions and dovish shifts in US monetary expectations. Domestically, moderate growth in unemployment to 2.5% in April and stable core inflation support the Bank of Mexico’s decision to keep rates unchanged, underscoring the peso’s resilience amid global headwinds.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above the 1.37 threshold against the US dollar, reaching its highest level in almost eight months, supported by strong domestic economic indicators and rising commodity prices. In the first quarter, Canada’s economy grew by 2.2% year-on-year, exceeding the consensus expectations of 1.7%, thanks to significant growth in exports and accumulation of inventories, as companies began active deliveries ahead of expected steel tariffs in the US, while retail sales also showed notable growth in the second month, indicating broad demand.

European stock markets traded without a single trend yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.28%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down 0.19%, and the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.36%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.02%. Negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow ended without a ceasefire, with only an agreement on the exchange of prisoners. Investors have now shifted their attention to the upcoming ECB meeting, where another rate cut is expected.

WTI oil prices rose to around $62.9 per barrel on Tuesday, continuing their rise for the second session in a row, as ongoing geopolitical tensions heighten concerns about a reduction in global supply. On Monday, Russia and Ukraine held a second round of direct peace talks after a sharp escalation of hostilities the day before, but the discussions did not yield significant progress in resolving the conflict. Iran is ready to reject the US proposal to end the decades-long nuclear dispute, arguing that it does not serve Tehran’s interests and does not soften Washington’s position on uranium enrichment.

On Monday, silver prices rose more than 5% to $34.60 per ounce, reaching two-month highs, as escalating tensions in global trade increased demand for safe assets. Amid growing uncertainty surrounding global trade policy and its potential economic implications, investors have turned to precious metals as a hedge, causing silver prices to rise alongside gold prices.

Asian markets mostly fell yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1. 30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.24%.

The Australian dollar weakened to 0.647 US dollars on Tuesday, reversing the sharp rise of the previous session, after the Australian Central Bank said it had considered an excessive rate cut last month. During its May meeting, the Central Bank said that policymakers had considered a bold 50 basis point rate cut as “insurance” against growing global trade risks, but ultimately opted for a more cautious 25 basis point cut. Nevertheless, markets now estimate the probability of another rate cut at the next RBA meeting at around 70%, although many analysts expect the Central Bank to wait for second-quarter inflation data before taking further action.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to around US$0.60, cutting its gains by 1% from the previous session and retreating from its highest level since November last year, as the US dollar regained strength. Investors continued to weigh the risks associated with ongoing global trade tensions, with friction between China and the US intensifying after Beijing rejected Trump’s claim of trade rule violations and vowed to retaliate. Additional pressure on bears came from private data from China showing a sharp decline in factory activity in May, raising concerns about kiwi exports given China’s role as a key trading partner.

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.28%. The S&P 500 (US500) added 0.40%. The Nasdaq (US100) closed higher at 0.21%. Market growth was held back by ongoing legal battles over President Donald Trump’s tariffs. A federal court initially blocked most of the tariffs, ruling that they were imposed illegally, but on Thursday afternoon, a US appeals court reinstated them, creating uncertainty about trade policy. Weak data reinforced expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts this year. In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.2% on an annualized basis, which was slightly better than the initial estimate of a 0.3% decline, but still marked the first quarterly contraction in GDP in three years.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.44%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.11%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.11%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed lower at 0.11%. Initial optimism following the US Court of International Trade’s ruling that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing retaliatory tariffs and ordering the administration to stop collecting them faded as investors weighed the possibility that the administration would use alternative legal avenues to maintain its trade policy.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $60.7 per barrel on Thursday under pressure from weak US economic data and concerns about rising global supply. A report from the US showed that the economy contracted in early 2025, raising concerns about slowing fuel demand. At the same time, Kazakhstan said that OPEC+ is likely to increase production at its meeting on Saturday, although the size of the increase has not yet been determined. The head of the International Energy Agency said that oil consumption in China remains weak, exacerbating concerns about demand. On the supply side, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 2.8 million barrels last week.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1. 88%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 1.35%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.15%. The Hang Seng Index is showing steady monthly growth of around 5%, recovering from sharp losses in the previous period. The recovery was aided by strong GDP data for the first quarter, a 90-day tariff pause between the US and China, high IPO activity, and a resurgence in tourism.

In Australia, retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.1% month-on-month in April, reversing the 0.3% growth in March, which was also in line with the consensus expectations. In addition, building permit data was also unexpectedly low, heightening concerns about a weakening economic outlook. The data reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain its easing bias after cutting rates by 25 basis points last week.

According to Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Karen Silk, interest rates in New Zealand are now in a neutral range of 2.5-3.5%, and further changes will depend on economic developments, as past rate cuts have not yet fully taken effect. She also noted that uncertainty in global trade remains high, but expects the economy to recover, supported by previously adopted easing measures that may offset some risks. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25% at its May meeting, signaling that the easing cycle may be coming to an end after cutting rates by 225 basis points since August.

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.56%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.58%. The Nasdaq technology Index (US100) closed down 0.51%. Stocks fell amid President Trump’s expansion of restrictions on chip software supplies to China.

According to the Fed, the announced tariff increase was much more significant and extensive than expected, and they noted considerable uncertainty regarding the direction of trade policy, as well as the magnitude, scale, timing, and duration of its economic consequences, according to the minutes of the May FOMC meeting. Policymakers viewed this uncertainty as unusually high and believed that the risks of a decline in employment and economic activity, as well as the risks of higher inflation, had increased. In May 2025, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50% for the third consecutive meeting, in line with expectations.

The US Court of International Trade ruled that the tariffs were illegal and ordered them to be repealed and permanently blocked, dealing a significant blow to the president’s economic agenda. The White House is expected to appeal the decision.

Nvidia reported better-than-expected first-quarter results on Wednesday, but the chipmaker warned of an $8 billion negative impact on its second-quarter expectations due to the US ban on chip sales to China. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose more than 2% after the close of trading on the back of the report.

The Mexican peso (MXN) fell to 19.4 per US dollar from an eight-month high of 19.2 reached on May 23, under pressure from some strengthening of the dollar and the Bank of Mexico’s dovish expectations. At the same time, expectations that the Bank of Mexico will extend its cycle of rate cuts this year prevailed after the latest core inflation figures matched expectations. The Bank of Mexico has made three consecutive 50 bps rate cuts in the current cycle, lowering its benchmark rate to 8.5%.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.78%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.49%, and Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) lost 0. 98%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.59%. Median inflation expectations in the Eurozone rose for the second month in a row to 3.1% in April 2025, the highest since February 2024, compared to 2.9% in March. Uncertainty about inflation expectations for the next 12 months also increased, reaching the same level as in June 2024. At the same time, inflation expectations for the next three years remained unchanged at 2.5%.

WTI crude oil futures rose to around $62.6 per barrel, marking the second consecutive session of growth, helped by lower tariff risks and prospects for reduced supply. On Wednesday, the US Court of International Trade ruled that President Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing global tariffs, declaring them illegal and ordering them to be rescinded. Although the administration is expected to appeal, the ruling helped reduce trade uncertainty and improved the outlook for global oil demand.

The US natural gas prices rose to $3.40/MMBtu, the highest level in a week, thanks to lower production, rising demand, and expectations for hotter weather. Looking ahead, LNG supplies are expected to remain below April’s peak.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0. 53%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.13%. Hong Kong stocks rose to 23,360 at the start of trading on Thursday, recovering from the previous session’s decline. The growth was almost universal, led by technology, consumer, and financial companies. Sentiment improved after a strong rally in US futures after a federal court blocked President Donald Trump’s tariffs imposed on “Liberation Day”.

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index fell sharply to 36.6 in May 2025 from 49.3 the previous month, reaching its lowest level since July 2024. The decline is the third consecutive month amid growing concerns about the impact of rising US tariffs.