InvestMacro

The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.17% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.05%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.31%. Data released on Tuesday showed a modest increase in US job openings for October, while layoffs declined, indicating workers’ confidence in the labor market. US October JOLTS job openings rose 372,000 to 7.744 million, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 7.519 million. Traders are now focused on Wednesday’s ADP private sector jobs report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls data to gain further insight into labor market trends. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak in New York on Wednesday afternoon. Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 75% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.42%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.26%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.18%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.56%. France’s political crisis is intensifying. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party is expected to join forces with a left-wing coalition in a no-confidence vote on Wednesday to topple Prime Minister Barnier’s administration. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the Dec. 12 meeting to 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting to 14%.

WTI crude oil prices held near $70 per barrel on Wednesday after rising 2.7% in the previous session, helped by signals that OPEC+ will further delay production recovery, as well as new US sanctions on Iranian oil. The producer group is reportedly close to an agreement to delay the plan to increase production for another three months, with a final decision expected at Thursday’s meeting, easing market fears of oversupply. Meanwhile, the US has imposed sanctions on 35 companies and ships it believes are involved in the transportation of Iranian crude.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.00%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.56%. On Wednesday, Chinese stocks failed to build on recent gains as caution prevailed in the region following political turmoil in South Korea. Adding further uncertainty was the fact that China’s Politburo opted not to release a report on its regular November meeting, which sparked speculation that additional stimulus measures may be forthcoming.

The Bank of Korea announced today that it will temporarily take measures to boost short-term liquidity in response to market volatility caused by the country’s brief declaration of martial law. The Central Bank said in a statement that it has begun purchasing additional repurchase agreements from more financial institutions to boost market liquidity. The move is in line with Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok’s earlier pledge to provide unlimited liquidity support if needed following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s surprise declaration of martial law on Tuesday night.

The Australian dollar fell below $0.645 on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in four months, as weak GDP data reinforced expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The data showed Australia’s economy grew just 0.3% in the three months through September in quarterly terms, missing market expectations of 0.4%. On an annualized basis, the economy grew by 0.8%, well below the projected 1.1%, a growth rate typically seen during recessions. Despite the disappointing data, the RBA is expected to leave rates unchanged at its December meeting, citing persistent inflation.

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.24%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 1.12%. Better-than-expected US economic news on the ISM Manufacturing Index for November and construction spending for October bolstered the outlook for a soft landing and boosted stocks. The US Manufacturing PMI for November rose 1.9 to a 5-month high of 48.4, beating expectations of 47.5. US construction spending for October rose 0.4% mom, stronger than expectations of 0.2% mom.

Tesla (TSLA) shares are up more than 4% after Roth Capital Partners upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral.” Shares of Cloudflare (NET) are up more than 5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a $130 price target.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.57%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.02%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.81%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.31%. The S&P German Manufacturing PMI for November from S&P was revised down 0.2 to 43.0 from the previously reported 43.2. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks said that the ECB is likely to cut interest rates at next week’s meeting and that a larger move is currently under discussion. Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a 25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its December 12 policy meeting and at 18% for a 50 bp rate cut at the same meeting.

Political unrest in France has heightened concerns about Eurozone stability. France’s far-right party threatened to topple the fragile government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier in a no-confidence vote, escalating the standoff over the national budget.

WTI crude prices stabilized near $68 a barrel on Tuesday as traders await Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting for further guidance on global supply. The group is expected to postpone a small production increase for the third time amid concerns that the market will be oversupplied next year. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter, is expected to cut crude prices for Asian buyers to the lowest level in four years.

Asian markets were mostly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.80%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.36%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.14%. Hong Kong stocks fell by 0.6% to 19,437 in Tuesday morning session, reversing gains in the previous two sessions after the US imposed restrictions on the sale of 24 types of manufacturing equipment and three software tools, and blacklisted another 140 Chinese entities. In response, Beijing said on Monday that Washington was abusing export controls and exerting unilateral pressure, adding that it would take necessary actions to protect its interests.

The offshore yuan fell to 7.31 per dollar, hitting a one-year low, as the dollar strengthened on expectations of strong US economic performance and weak Chinese growth. The dollar gained further support after Trump warned of potential 100% tariffs on BRICS countries that support an alternative to the US dollar. Meanwhile, persistent tariff risks and weakness in the Chinese economy put additional pressure on the yuan. On Monday, the PBOC chief signaled rate cuts later in the year and plans to strengthen countercyclical measures next year.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar continued its recent decline to US$0.587. It was pressured by continued weakness in the yuan, which has been weakened by threats of US tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty in China. The NZD is often seen as a liquid proxy for the yuan due to China’s significant role as New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.42% on Friday (+2.37% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.56% (for the week +1.48%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.90% (for the week +0.93%). Stocks rose moderately on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials hitting new all-time highs. The gains were driven by lower inflation expectations in the US.

Airbnb (ABNB) shares closed down more than 1% on signs of insider selling after CEO Chesky sold more than $15 million worth of stock on Monday. Boeing (BA) closed up nearly 2% after BOA Aviation agreed to buy 14 Boeing 737-8 airplanes.

On Saturday, US President-elect Donald Trump threatened a bloc of nine countries with 100% tariffs if they acted to the detriment of the US dollar. His threat was aimed at countries in the so-called BRICS alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia have applied to join, and several other countries have expressed interest in joining. According to the IMF, the dollar accounts for about 58% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves, and basic commodities such as oil are still bought and sold mostly in dollars. But the dollar’s dominance is threatened by the BRICS countries’ growing share of GDP and the alliance’s intention to trade in non-dollar currencies, a process known as de-dollarization.

Canada’s third-quarter GDP grew at a 1% annualized rate after an upwardly revised 2.2% in the second quarter, which was in line with market expectations but short of the Central Bank’s estimate of 1.5%. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates further next month, although the likelihood of a 50bp cut was reduced after core inflation rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September. The Canadian dollar fell above 1.4 per US dollar after the report.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.03% (for the week +0.84%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.78% (for the week -1.29%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.26% (for the week -0.73%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.07% (for the week +0.31%). Eurozone CPI came in at 2.3% y/y in November, matching expectations. Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) for November came in at 2.7% yoy, weaker than expectations of 2.8% yoy. ECB expectations for 1-year inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5% in October from 2.4% in September, stronger than expectations for a decline to 2.3% y/y. Expectations for 3-year inflation for October were unchanged from September at 2.1%, in line with expectations. German retail sales for October fell by 1.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m and the largest decline in 2 years. German unemployment rose by 7,000 in November, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of 20,000. The unemployment rate in November was unchanged at 6.1%, matching expectations.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Stournaras said the ECB is likely to pursue a more aggressive interest rate cut policy if evidence emerges that US tariffs will lead Europe into recession.

In Switzerland, markets currently give a 72% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 28% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the SNB’s next monetary policy meeting on December 12. The rate cut comes amid slowing inflation, which has been within the SNB’s 0–2% target range for almost 18 months. Switzerland’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.6% in October, the lowest level in more than three years.

Oil prices fell about 3% last week amid easing concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of more supply in 2025, even as OPEC+ is expected to extend production cuts.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.60%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.51%.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.55% in November 2024 from 1.71% in the previous month, the lowest since July 2021, but slightly above market projections of 1.5%. The latest result remains within the Central Bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. The core inflation rate hit a 16-month high of 2.26%, above estimates of 2.20%.

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.28%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.57%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.57%.

Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism that inflation is falling and the labor market remains robust, supporting the possibility of further interest rate cuts, albeit at a moderate pace, minutes from the November 6–7 meeting showed. Officials noted that monetary policy decisions depend on economic trends and cautioned against premature rate cuts. The volatility of recent data and uncertainty about the impact of a neutral interest rate on economic activity make the policymaking process particularly challenging. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the December 17–18 FOMC meeting at 67%.

Intel (INTC) shares are down more than 3% after Bloomberg reported that Qualcomm’s interest in acquiring Intel has waned. General Motors (GM) stock is down more than 8%, and Ford Motor (F) is down more than 2% after President-elect Trump promised to impose additional 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada. Both automakers import cars from China into the US and have plants in Canada and Mexico.

The Mexican peso fell more than 2% to above 20.7 per US dollar on Tuesday, the weakest since March 2022, after Donald Trump doubled down on his threats to raise tariffs. In his Truth social media posts, Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Mexico is the US’s largest trading partner, and the auto sector would be one of the hardest hit. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico could respond by imposing its own tariffs. The peso has weakened about 20% this year.

Equity markets in Europe were declining yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.80%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.40%.

WTI crude oil prices held below $69 per barrel on Wednesday as traders weighed signs of another OPEC+ production delay and easing geopolitical risks following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Markets are anticipating the December 1 OPEC+ meeting. It is reported that the group will postpone its planned January production increase by several months due to signs of oversupply. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East eased after Israel and Hezbollah reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement in US-brokered talks. However, shortly after President Biden’s announcement, both sides resumed attacks, underscoring the difficulty in reaching a long-term agreement.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose to $3.48/MMBtu, the highest level in more than a year, as estimates of colder weather and lower production prompted utilities to accelerate the start of the season for drawing gas from storage. EIA data showed that gas inventories in storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 15 instead of the expected 5 billion cubic feet. It was the first accelerated decline this season, as relatively low prices in the previous week prompted producers to cut production.

Asian markets traded flat on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 0.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.69%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the discount rate by 50bps to 4.25%, which is in line with market expectations. The RBNZ said the rate cut strikes a balance between supporting growth and employment while keeping inflation under control and ensuring market stability. This is the third rate cut by the Central Bank this year, bringing the total easing to 125bps this cycle. In addition, Governor Adrian Orr has suggested that another significant interest rate cut will occur early next year if economic conditions develop as expected. In the external market, the kiwi remains under pressure from recent tariff threats by US President-elect Donald Trump, particularly those targeting China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

In Australia, the annual CPI reading came in at 2.1%, which is in line with the growth seen in September but below analysts’ estimate of 2.3%. This is the lowest inflation rate since July 2021. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) believes that monetary policy should remain restrictive until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily towards target.

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.99%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.30%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrials set a new all-time high, and the Nasdaq 100 set a weekly high. Stocks rose on Monday amid optimism that President-elect Trump has picked Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, to be US Treasury Secretary to bring a Wall Street mentality to the role and ease concerns about Trump’s inflationary agenda of tax cuts and tariff hikes. Bessent said he would support Trump’s policies, but his experience as a fiscal hawk indicates he will prioritize economic and market stability and deficit reduction.

Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 4% and topped the list of losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 markets after Amazon.com said it was developing its own artificial intelligence chips. Moderna (MRNA) closed up more than 6% after Jefferies said Robert F. Kennedy’s appointment to the Department of Health and Human Services is unlikely to mean an end to vaccines.

The Dollar Index climbed back above 107 on Tuesday as President-elect Donald Trump stepped up his threats to raise tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, among others, sparking renewed demand for the dollar. Trump said he would impose additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US, as well as 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

Equity markets in Europe rallied yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.43%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.03% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.36%. The German IFO Business Climate Index for November fell by 0.8 to 85.7, weaker than expectations of 86.0. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks said yesterday that given the European economy at the moment, another interest rate cut in December should follow. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting by 100% and a 50 bp rate cut at the same meeting by 35%.

Platinum (XPTUSD) prices fell to $950 per ounce, not far from the two-month low of $930 reached on November 13, and followed a general decline in precious metals-related assets as markets reduced their demand for safe-haven assets.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 3% on Monday to settle at $68.90 a barrel following reports that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement. Iran announced plans to expand nuclear fuel production after criticism from the UN atomic watchdog, preparing for potential sanctions under a possible second Trump administration. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister said OPEC+ may maintain its current oil production cuts from January 1 as the group continues to delay planned production increases due to demand concerns. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for December 1 and will be held online.

Asian markets traded flat on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 1.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.28%.

Trump confirmed his plans to impose an additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods, adding to fears of global trade tensions. Against this backdrop, the offshore yuan fell to around 7.26 per dollar, nearing its lowest level since late July. Earlier this week, the PBoC kept the MLF rate at 2.0%, injecting 900 billion yuan and withdrawing 550 billion yuan. Last week, the Central Bank also kept the one-year lending rate at 3.1% and the five-year lending rate at 3.6%, indicating a cautious stance on supporting economic growth.

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.97% (week-to-date +1.99%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.35% (week-to-date +1.62%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.17% (week-to-date +1.59%). Investor rotation from technology sectors to economically sensitive sectors such as financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary contributed to the broader market’s gains. On the economic front, S&P’s US PMI for November rose to 55.3, showing the fastest private sector growth since April 2022.

Mexico’s Q3 2024 GDP grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, the fastest pace since Q1 2022, beating estimates of 1%. Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 4.56% in mid-November, an eight-month low, down from 4.69% in October and below projections. Despite strong growth supporting gradual rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico, the peso (MXN) is under pressure from the US dollar rally driven by a strong labor market, sustained Fed policy expectations, and speculation about President-elect Trump’s inflationary policies. Reports of the appointment of trade hawk Robert Lighthizer as US Trade Representative and the potential appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State with his hardline stance on Latin America further add to concerns.

Investors who bet on “buying a digital asset and the dollar” after Trump’s victory are still in profit. Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark and is up about 50% since early October, when markets were leaning toward Trump’s election victory. The Dollar Index is up 3.6%. The Mexican peso has lost over 4%, and European stocks are down about 3%. However, resistance to Trump-related trades could increase if equity valuation concerns intensify or geopolitical risks challenge the rally in risk assets.

Equity markets in Europe were rising on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92% (week-to-date +0.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.58% (week-to-date -0.27%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39% (week-to-date +0.16%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.38% (week-to-date +2.46%). According to the ECB representatives, the European Central Bank’s policy will evolve regardless of what happens in the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg estimates that the Fed will cut rates in December, but policymakers will keep borrowing costs unchanged in January. Meanwhile, the ECB has cut rates three times since June and is expected to continue at its next four meetings.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Friday he would reintroduce negative interest rates if necessary, which has weakened the Swiss franc against the dollar and euro. Schlegel said the Central Bank doesn’t like negative rates but could use them if necessary to reduce investor appetite for the safe-haven franc. The SNB has cut the benchmark rate to 1% three times during 2024 and expects further cuts. There is currently a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 28% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the Central Bank’s next meeting in December.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.6% to $71.2 a barrel on Friday, ending the week up more than 5%, helped by the escalating conflict in Ukraine, which added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. China unveiled new policies aimed at boosting trade, including support for energy imports, amid concerns over Trump’s potential tariffs.

The US natural gas prices fell to $3.1 per mmbbl after hitting a one-year high of $3.35 in November 21 amid expectations of higher production next year. The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to increase production next year for the first time since the pandemic amid increased export capacity and global demand for US LNG. Nevertheless, prices rose nearly 20% in November as estimates of the colder weather accelerated expectations for the start of the storage withdrawal season.

Asian markets were flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.83%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.87%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.31%.

Japan’s Coincident Economic Index, which includes data such as output, employment, and retail sales, came in at 115.3 for September 2024, slightly below the prognoses of 115.7. Nevertheless, this result has improved compared to the six-month low of 114.0 recorded in August, reflecting a moderate economic recovery.

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was up 1.06%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed positive 0.53%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.36%.

The Dollar Index remained above 107, holding near two-year highs, as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Data released on Thursday showed that weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a seven-month low, further evidence of a strong labor market. Investors await business activity data today and inflation data next week for more economic information.

Alphabet (GOOG) fell more than 6% after antitrust regulators said in court Wednesday that Google must get rid of Chrome, citing that the browser “reinforced” the company’s dominant position. Salesforce (CRM) is up more than 4% and tops the leaderboard in the Dow Jones Industrials after Stifel raised its price target on the company’s shares to $390 from $350. PDD Holdings (PDD) is down more than 9% and tops the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reporting third-quarter revenue of ¥99.35 billion, weaker than the consensus estimate of ¥102.83 billion.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose more than 2%, hitting a new record high above $99,000 on optimism that President-elect Trump’s support for digital assets will boost the industry as the US moves toward friendly regulation of digital assets. Trump’s team has begun discussing creating a position in the White House dedicated to digital asset policy.

Inflationary pressures intensified in Canada, with producer prices rising 1.2% month-on-month in October, the strongest increase since April. Earlier data showed consumer inflation exceeded estimates on key indicators, with the average core inflation rate rising to 2.6% in October from a three-year low of 2.4% in September.

Equity markets in Europe ended trading yesterday on a strong note. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.74%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.21% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.79%. The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for November unexpectedly fell by 1.2 to a 5-month low of 13.7, weaker than expectations for a rise to 12.4.

The US natural gas prices rose by 7% to 4.3 million barrels per ton, extending yesterday’s 6% gain to the highest level in a year, as estimates of colder weather boosted heating demand and accelerated expectations for the start of the storage withdrawal season. EIA data showed that gas inventories in storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 15 instead of the 5 billion cubic feet expected. This was the first accelerated decline this season, as relatively low prices in the previous week forced producers to cut production.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.85%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.53% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.04%.

Malaysia’s annualized inflation rate for October 2024 was 1.9%, slightly above market estimates, and September’s 1.8%, the lowest in five months. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative costs, rose to 1.8% y/y, holding steady for the second month and remaining at the lowest level in six months.

Australian manufacturing activity continued to contract for the 10th consecutive month in November, although the rate of decline slowed to its lowest level in six months. At the same time, service sector activity moved into contraction for the first time in ten months.

Japan’s core Consumer Price Index, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose to an annualized rate of 2.3% in October 2024. However, the increase was slightly above the market projections of 2.2%. Despite this, Japan’s core inflation has remained at or above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than two years, which has contributed to the Central Bank’s more hawkish stance.