InvestMacro

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.20%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.33%.

The US stocks closed slightly higher on Monday as investors weighed President Trump’s new tariff threats against optimism about upcoming earnings and inflation data. Trump announced plans to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU and Mexico starting August 1, but hopes for continued negotiations helped ease investor concerns. Markets are also preparing for a wave of second-quarter earnings reports, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo set to report on Tuesday. At the same time, investors are awaiting the June Consumer Price Index report, which may show how previously imposed tariffs are affecting inflation and shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.

On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) jumped more than 2% and exceeded the $122,000 mark, setting a new all-time high and strengthening its position among the largest assets by market capitalization, which is now estimated at $2.4 trillion. The latest rally is fueled by growing institutional demand, especially through spot exchange-traded funds, as well as favorable US political prospects and favorable global macroeconomic conditions. The bullish momentum is reinforced by expectations of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, as markets increasingly lean toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Trump continues to exert political pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding lower borrowing costs in an attempt to stimulate growth.

European stock markets traded without a clear trend yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.39%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.27%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.19% (up +0.33% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.64%. The Frankfurt DAX Index continued to decline after President Donald Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on goods from the EU, which will take effect on August 1. Nevertheless, markets remained hopeful that the measures would be softened as part of ongoing trade discussions. At today’s meeting, EU ministers agreed to prioritize negotiations with Washington in an attempt to avoid tariffs. If the negotiations fail, the EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs worth €72 billion. The European automotive sector was hit hard: VW, BMW, and Mercedes lost up to 2.5%, while Volvo fell by 5% after warning of profitability issues related to tariffs on electric vehicles. On a brighter note, shares in defense companies such as Thales rose after Macron approved a €6.5 billion military spending plan.

WTI oil prices fell by 2.1% to below $67 per barrel on Monday after President Trump failed to announce new sanctions against Russian oil, disappointing markets that had expected tougher action. Although Trump warned of the possible imposition of 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if a truce was not reached within 50 days, the lack of immediate action put pressure on prices. Hedge funds responded by reducing their bullish positions at the fastest pace since February. However, Chinese trade data provided some support: crude oil imports rose and purchases of Iranian oil increased in June, indicating steady demand in the near term.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) in the US rose to a weekly high, exceeding $3.4 per million barrels, thanks to growth in LNG exports and expectations of hotter-than-usual weather, which is expected to increase demand for gas at the end of July. Gas flows at the eight major LNG export plants in the US averaged 15.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in July, as several facilities resumed operations after maintenance and downtime.

Asian markets were mostly higher on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.28%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.26%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.11%.

Hong Kong stocks fell at the opening of the trading session, interrupting a three-session winning streak. Traders reacted to China’s second-quarter GDP data, which showed economic growth of 5.2% y/y, the slowest pace in three quarters, although slightly above the expectations of 5.1%. Meanwhile, China’s statistics agency noted continuing external uncertainty and warned that domestic demand remains weak.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.654 on Tuesday after a notable decline in the previous session. Domestically, sentiment improved thanks to positive economic data: the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index rose 0.6% month-on-month to 93.1 in July 2025. This was the third consecutive monthly increase, signaling a modest but encouraging improvement in consumer sentiment.

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.63% (-0.96% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.33% (+0.01% for the week). The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed down 0.21% (+0.12% for the week). The US stocks closed lower on Friday after President Trump announced 35% tariffs on Canadian imports and warned of broader tariff increases around the world. Trump’s letter to Canada raised concerns and warned of further action in the event of retaliatory measures, while also hinting that similar measures against the EU were expected soon. Most sectors were down, with healthcare and financial companies suffering the biggest losses, while energy and consumer goods rose.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.37 per US dollar after President Trump announced at the end of the week that he would impose 35% tariffs on all non-US Canadian goods, effective August 1, reigniting concerns about Canada’s access to exports and heightening uncertainty over trade policy. Trump increased pressure on Canada to conclude a new agreement before the deadline, adding to existing 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, where Canada remains America’s main supplier. However, Canada’s domestic economy offered a counterargument: The June employment report delivered a significant surprise, with 83,100 jobs created and the unemployment rate falling to 6.9%, tempering market expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut at its July 30 meeting and providing support for the CAD.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.7 per dollar, retreating from its August 2024 highs. The Bank of Mexico’s June minutes showed that despite a 325 bps rate cut since the beginning of 2024, policymakers are now leaning toward modest quarter-point cuts as core inflation remains high at 4.32%, well above the 3% target and undermining expectations for more accommodative monetary policy.

European stock markets were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.82% (+1.72% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.92% (+1.62% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) Index fell by 0.94% (+0.33% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.38% (+1.34% for the week). European stocks closed lower on Friday amid expectations of a decline in global trade flows. The EU Commission is expected to receive an official letter from US President Trump with tariffs on the bloc’s products, which will deprive European corporate giants of demand from key foreign customers. This came after Trump announced the introduction of 35% tariffs on Canadian imports from August 1 and announced plans to impose general tariffs of 15% to 20% on most other trading partners.

WTI oil prices rose 2.8% to $68.40 per barrel on Friday, recovering from a 2.5% drop in the previous session. Although the IEA expects a potential surplus at the end of this year, high demand for oil during the summer and high refinery utilization rates are supporting current prices. Russia’s promise to compensate for overproduction and expectations of record Saudi oil deliveries to China in August have reinforced short-term bullish sentiment. However, the IEA’s upward revision of its supply growth projections and downward revision of its demand expected point to a softer balance at the end of the year.

On Friday, silver prices (XAG/USD) rose above $38 per ounce, reaching their highest level in 13 years, as heightened global trade tensions fueled demand for safe-haven assets. The rally came after US President Donald Trump announced 35% tariffs on Canadian imports from August 1 and plans to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 20% on most other trading partners.

Asian markets traded without a single trend last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.30%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.27%. Goldman Sachs upgraded Hong Kong stocks to market weight, citing stronger earnings growth amid improving capital markets and a revival in real estate activity. In addition, hopes rose for Beijing’s response to combat deflationary risks.

On Monday, the offshore yuan traded around 7.17 per dollar, supported by better-than-expected trade data. China’s trade surplus in June 2025 increased to $114.77 billion, exceeding expectations, as exports rose 5.8% year-on-year, driven by advance shipments ahead of the August tariff deadlines. Imports also rose 1.1%, which was below expectations but marked the first annual increase this year, indicating a moderate recovery in domestic demand.

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.43%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.27%. The Nasdaq (US100) tech Index closed up 0.09%. On Thursday, the US stocks closed higher as investors ignored President Trump’s latest threats to impose tariffs and focused on strong corporate results and record profits. Despite Trump announcing a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil and confirming similar tariffs on copper and other goods, markets remained optimistic. Weekly jobless claims fell to 227,000, indicating a stable but cooling labor market.

Bitcoin surpassed the $118,000 mark, setting a new all-time high, driven by high institutional demand and supportive policies from the Trump administration. Since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency has risen in price by almost 22%. In March, President Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve and appointed several prominent figures in the cryptocurrency industry. In this regard, Trump Media & Technology Group has applied with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a cryptocurrency ETF that will invest in a basket of digital assets, further boosting confidence in institutional adoption. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming “crypto week,” which begins on July 14, when lawmakers are expected to consider several key bills related to digital asset regulation.

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) weakened to 18.65 per US dollar, down from its August 2024 high, as new US threats to impose tariffs threatened key Mexican exports and strengthened the dollar. President Trump’s confirmation of a 50% tariff on copper — a sector in which Mexico is one of the world’s leading suppliers — along with veiled warnings of similar tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, has jeopardized the export revenues of the country’s mining and manufacturing industries.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.37 per US dollar on Friday, hitting a two-week low after US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of steep 35% tariffs on Canadian imports, which will take effect on August 1. Trump cited Canada’s retaliatory tariffs and unwillingness to cooperate with Washington as justification, increasing pressure on Ottawa to reach a trade agreement before the deadline. The latest measures complement existing 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum — Canada is the largest supplier of both metals to the US. Economic data further affected sentiment: Canada’s trade deficit widened in June, and private sector activity declined for the seventh consecutive month, indicating weak growth momentum and clouding the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook.

European stock markets traded without a clear trend on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.38%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.30%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) fell 0.79%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.23% yesterday. The FTSE 100 index reached a new record high, rising thanks to strong growth in mining company shares. AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline shares rose more than 2% each, benefiting from investor relief as the healthcare sector was not directly affected by the latest tariff announcements.

According to the EU Trade Commissioner, significant progress has been made in negotiations with the United States on a framework agreement, and a deal could be announced in the coming days. Negotiators are discussing measures to protect the EU automotive industry, including tariff reductions and the introduction of import quotas. He further heightened uncertainty by sending seven additional letters to trading partners, following 14 letters sent earlier this week, all of which indicate that additional tariffs may be imposed shortly.

WTI oil prices fell 2% to below $67 per barrel on Thursday as traders digested news that OPEC+ may suspend its planned production increase starting in October. Although discussions are still in the early stages, this move reflects concerns about a possible oversupply in the market once the peak summer demand period has passed.

Asian markets were mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.44%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.59% yesterday.

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.49%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index rose by 0.61%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed higher by 0.94%. US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as investors assessed the impact of tariff expansion on corporate earnings and future Federal Reserve policy. Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed that officials view the recently announced tariffs as inflationary, prompting them to delay resuming interest rate cuts that were previously planned for earlier this year. The announcement came shortly after President Trump expanded the list of countries subject to US tariffs, effective August 1, to include the Philippines, Iraq, and possibly Brazil.

Nvidia (NVDA) became the first company to reach a market value of $4 trillion. Shares of the leading chipmaker rose about 2.4% to $164, thanks to continued growth in demand for artificial intelligence technology. Nvidia’s chips and related software are considered global leaders in the creation of artificial intelligence products.

The Mexican peso strengthened above 18.6 per US dollar, reaching an 11-month high, as investors assessed the ongoing price pressure against a strong external balance. The unexpected rise in core inflation in June to 4.24%, the highest level since April 2024, caused the market to maintain expectations of cautious rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico, which allowed it to maintain a significant margin of real yield even after the June 26 decision to cut the benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 8%. In the external market, a slight recovery in the US dollar against the backdrop of renewed threats of tariffs was offset in the local market by Mexico’s progress in negotiations to delay or soften retaliatory duties.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) reached a new record high of $112,000, as investors shifted to riskier assets amid a broad rally in the stock market. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has risen by more than 18% due to sustained institutional demand, as traditional financial players increasingly embrace the world’s largest cryptocurrency. The Trump administration’s pro-cryptocurrency stance has also bolstered the digital asset market, driving fresh capital into the sector.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.42%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.44%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 1.24%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.15%. On Wednesday, the DAX index continued to rise, climbing more than 1% and surpassing the 24,500-point mark, reaching a new all-time high with the support of defensive stocks, as traders await news on the progress of trade negotiations. President Trump said he would likely notify the EU of the proposed export duty rate in the coming days, adding that negotiations with the EU were progressing well. The European Commission recently reiterated its goal of reaching a framework agreement with the US on the trade dispute by the end of this week.

WTI oil prices rose slightly on Wednesday and closed at $68.4 per barrel as traders assessed an unexpected increase in US oil inventories amid renewed tensions in the Red Sea and forecasts of a decline in US production. The EIA reported a 7.1 million barrel increase in US oil inventories for the week ending July 4, contrary to expectations of a 2.1 million barrel decline. Prices were supported by renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, including an attack that sank a cargo ship and killed at least four crew members.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell 5% to below $3.2 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Wednesday, the lowest in six weeks, due to rising supply and high inventory levels. In July, production in the 48 contiguous US states averaged 106.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), surpassing June’s record high of 106.4 bcfd. Gas inventories remain about 6% above the five-year average, and analysts expect another above-average weekly increase — the 11th in 12 weeks. Despite this surplus, demand remains high due to forecasts of hotter-than-usual weather through the end of July, leading to increased electricity consumption for air conditioning.

Asian markets traded without a single trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.33%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.61% yesterday.

The Central Bank of Malaysia lowered its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% at its monetary policy meeting in July 2025, in line with market expectations. This was the first rate cut in five years, underscoring the central bank’s desire to support domestic economic momentum amid weakening growth prospects and rising uncertainty in global trade. In the first five months of the year, headline and core inflation averaged 1.4% and 1.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s GDP grew by 4.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, in line with early estimates but below the revised growth rate of 4.9% in the previous quarter.

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.37%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.07%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology index closed higher by 0.03%. On Tuesday, US stocks were virtually unchanged as investors tried to make sense of President Trump’s mixed signals on tariffs. Trump initially postponed the return of comprehensive “Liberation Day” tariffs until August 1, but then changed course and said there would be no further extensions, further exacerbating trade instability. Markets reacted sharply to Trump’s announcement of high 50% tariffs on copper imports, causing copper futures to jump more than 10% and shares in producers such as Freeport-McMoran and Southern Copper to rise. Meanwhile, pharmaceutical stocks pared gains after Trump hinted at imposing a 200% tariff on foreign-made drugs but offered a one-year grace period.

US consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell to 3% in June 2025 from 3.2% in May, the lowest level in five months. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the three-year and five-year horizons remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively.

European stock markets were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.55%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.56%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.03%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) added 0.54%. The US imposed tariffs on major Asian trading partners in addition to sectoral tariffs. Still, we excluded the EU, noting statements by EU officials that the US minimum tariff of 10% could be reached. Car manufacturers benefited from the negative impact of tariffs on Asian competitors, with BMW and Stellantis adding 2% and 3%, respectively. In addition, UniCredit added 1.9% as the EU is expected to reject the Italian government’s conditions for the acquisition of Banco BPM, increasing the likelihood of the deal going through.

WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.6% to close at $68.3 per barrel on Tuesday, hovering near a two-week high, as investors assessed the impact of new US tariffs and a larger-than-expected increase in OPEC+ production in August. President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on 14 countries raised concerns about global economic growth and oil demand. On Saturday, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase and exceeding analysts’ expectations. The move will restore nearly 80% of the 2.2 million barrels per day that eight OPEC members voluntarily cut. Meanwhile, API and EIA data on oil inventories are expected to show a decline of 2.6 million barrels for the week ending July 4, marking the sixth consecutive decline in seven weeks.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.02%.

In China, consumer prices rose slightly in June after four months of decline, indicating continued high deflationary pressure. Meanwhile, producer prices experienced their sharpest decline in nearly two years amid fierce competition among Chinese companies, persistently weak domestic demand, and growing risks of tariffs.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.598 on Wednesday, its lowest level in two weeks, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) paused its cycle of interest rate cuts but signaled that further easing was likely if price pressures eased. The central bank kept its official refinancing rate at 3.25%, as expected, after six consecutive cuts since August 2024, when it first lowered the rate since March 2020. Policymakers expect rates to continue falling, in line with May forecasts, provided that medium-term inflation continues to decline. Markets also expect that the ongoing economic weakness will allow the RBNZ to make at least one more rate cut at the end of this year.

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones index (US30) fell by 0.94%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.79%. The Nasdaq (US100) tech index closed down 0.92%. The US stocks fell sharply on Monday as President Trump reignited trade tensions by announcing new tariffs and extending the deadline for their implementation to August 1. Trump posted letters on social media announcing the introduction of 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea, as well as additional duties of up to 40% on goods from countries such as Malaysia, Myanmar, and South Africa. He also warned of additional 10% tariffs for countries joining the “anti-American BRICS policy” as the bloc holds a summit in Brazil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that new trade announcements are expected within 48 hours. Shares in trade-sensitive companies, such as Toyota (-3.9%), Honda (-3.8%), Apple (-1.7%), and AMD (-2.2%), fell. In comparison, Tesla fell 6.8% after Elon Musk’s announcement of a new political party sparked a negative reaction from investors

European stock markets were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.35%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.73%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.19% yesterday. Notable leaders included Allianz, Münchener Rück, Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, Airbus, and Siemens Energy, which gained between 0.8% and 1.1%. German industrial production rose by 1.2% month-on-month in May, exceeding expectations of no change and recovering from a revised 1.6% decline in April.

Annual inflation in Sweden rose to 0.8% in June 2025, accelerating from 0.2% in May and exceeding expectations of a rise to 0.4%. This is the highest figure since February, but still well below the Riksbank’s target of 2%. Every month, consumer prices rose 0.5% — the most in four months — after rising 0.1% in May. Meanwhile, the fixed interest rate CPI (CPIF), the Riksbank’s target, rose to 2.9% year-on-year in June, the sharpest increase since February, compared with 2.3% in May and above forecasts of 2.5%.

WTI oil prices rose by 1.4% to $67.90 per barrel on Monday, rebounding from previous lows despite a larger-than-expected increase in OPEC+ production and concerns about possible US tariffs. In a sign of confidence in demand, Saudi Arabia raised its August Arab Light oil price to a four-month high for Asia. Meanwhile, markets are closely watching US trade policy, as Trump’s tariffs on certain countries are set to take effect on August 1. Although oil remains supported by supply shortages, tariff uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook for the second half of 2025.

On Monday, silver prices fell about 1% to $36.50 an ounce, retreating from 13-year highs, as President Donald Trump effectively extended the deadline for retaliatory tariffs, weakening demand for safe-haven currencies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said tariffs would return to April 2 levels for countries that had not reached a deal with the US by that date, allowing more time for trade negotiations to proceed. So far, only China, the UK, and Vietnam have reached partial agreements with Washington.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.56%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.12%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.16%.

At its July meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 3.85%, contradicting market forecasts of a 25-basis-point rate cut. The central bank cited a more balanced outlook for inflation risks and strong labor market conditions as the main reasons for maintaining its current policy. Nevertheless, the board remains cautious about the outlook amid uncertainty about aggregate demand and supply. Policymakers noted that they would wait for additional data to confirm that inflation is on track to return to the 2% target in a sustained manner.

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, pausing its aggressive cuts for the first time since August last year. Markets currently expect at least one more 25-basis-point cut at the end of this year due to the risks of slower growth linked to the economic impact of US tariffs.

The US stock indices did not trade on Friday due to the US Independence Day holiday.

The dispute between Republican President Donald Trump and his campaign’s chief financier, Elon Musk, took a new turn on Saturday when the billionaire space and car industry magnate announced the creation of a new political party, saying that Trump’s “big and beautiful” tax bill would bankrupt America. Earlier last week, Trump threatened to strip Musk’s companies of the billions of dollars in federal subsidies they receive. Despite Musk’s deep pockets, breaking the Republican-Democratic duopoly will not be easy, given that it has dominated American political life for more than 160 years, and Trump’s approval rating in polls during his second term has generally remained above 40%.

BRICS leaders are expected to sign a joint statement condemning the “rise of unjustified unilateral protectionist measures” and “disorderly increases” in tariffs. The final wording is unlikely to mention the US directly. But the group is sending an unambiguous signal to the Trump administration ahead of July 9, when his tariffs are set to take effect. US President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that any country that joins the BRICS bloc’s “anti-American policy” will face additional 10% tariffs.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 18.65 per US dollar, its strongest level since mid-August 2024. In the external market, the unexpectedly large US budget package in June and the approaching deadline for Trump’s tariffs weakened the dollar, while Mexico’s trade surplus in May was US$1.03 billion, and record remittances of US$5.5 billion ensured an inflow of hard currency into the country. In the domestic market, Banxico’s decision on June 26 to cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 8%, while confirming that further cuts would occur in anticipation of sustained disinflation, maintained an attractive real interest rate that supported the yield differential between the peso and the dollar.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.61% (-1.33% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.75% (-0.24% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) Index lost 1.48% (-0.40% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.01% (+0.27% for the week). On Friday, European stocks closed lower amid ongoing tensions in trade relations with the United States. The EU Commission said it was close to developing a framework trade agreement with the US to avoid the reintroduction of aggressive tariffs by the July 9 deadline. In turn, ECB officials noted that they may not reach their 2% inflation target if the euro remains at $1.20 for an extended period.

OPEC+ countries agreed to a larger-than-expected increase in oil production in August. The eight countries that comprise the OPEC+ oil-producing alliance agreed to increase oil production in August by 548,000 barrels per day, exceeding expectations. The group includes the largest oil producers — Russia and Saudi Arabia — as well as Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. These countries are winding down their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day. The increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day, coupled with the winding down of voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, means a significant increase in supply. If demand does not grow proportionally, this will lead to an oversupply in the market, which could potentially lower oil prices. On the other hand, seasonal growth in demand in the summer may partially offset the effect of increased supply.

On Friday, silver prices (XAG/USD) remained above $36.80 per ounce, approaching 13-year highs, as renewed tensions in global trade boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Investors remained on edge after President Donald Trump announced plans to begin sending letters describing new trade tariffs or potential extensions as early as Friday, adding to uncertainty in global markets. Further market anxiety was caused by the US House of Representatives passing Trump’s tax and spending bill, which is now headed to the White House for signing. The bill is expected to increase the federal budget deficit by more than $3 trillion, raising long-term fiscal concerns.

Asian markets traded without any clear trend last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.82%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.60%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.19%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.04% over the past week.

Vietnam’s annual GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 was 7.96% year-over-year (y/y), accelerating from 6.93% in the first quarter and marking the highest rate since the third quarter of 2022. The latest result reflects significant progress toward Hanoi’s target of at least 8% economic growth. Washington and Hanoi have signed a trade agreement under which Vietnamese goods will be subject to a 20% tariff, and transshipment of goods from third countries through Vietnam will be subject to a 40% tax. In return, Vietnam can import American goods without tariffs. Vietnam’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.57% in June 2025, from 3.24% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose to 3.46%, the highest since September 2023.

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.02%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.47% and reached a new all-time high. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.73%. Markets were buoyed by strong gains in technology stocks and news of a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam. President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the US would impose 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam under a new trade deal struck in last-minute negotiations. Previously, Vietnamese goods were to be subject to 46% duties starting next week as part of the “reciprocal” tariff policy introduced by Trump in April. Meanwhile, other major economies, such as the EU and Japan, are still trying to conclude their own agreements with the US.

The latest ADP data showed that private sector employment unexpectedly declined in June, the first decline in more than two years, raising new concerns about the strength of the labor market and supporting the case for monetary policy easing.

Today, important data on the US labor market will be released in the US, namely the Non-Farm Payrolls report. The publication date has been moved up a day due to the US holiday on Friday, July 4 (Independence Day). If the data is in line with analysts’ expectations, such a report will indicate a continuing slowdown in the labor market, but without a sharp deterioration. Higher wage growth rates may alarm the Fed in the context of inflationary pressure, reducing the likelihood of an early easing of monetary policy. The market reaction is neutral for both the US dollar and gold and stocks. A weak labor market report may reinforce expectations of a Fed rate cut in the coming months. We can expect a negative reaction from the US dollar, growth in risk assets (EUR, GBP, AUD), growth in stock indices and gold.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.49%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.99%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.41%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.12%. The Frankfurt DAX Index rose by about 0.5%, interrupting two days of losses, amid growing expectations of a positive outcome to trade negotiations. The US is reportedly insisting on introducing 10% tariffs, while the EU is seeking exemptions for sectors such as alcohol, aircraft manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Meanwhile, ECB officials at the Sintra summit expressed growing concern that the strengthening of the euro could affect inflation.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $67 a barrel on Thursday, cutting gains from the previous session, as an increase in US crude oil inventories heightened concerns about weak demand from the main consumer. Official data showed that crude oil inventories rose by 3.85 million barrels last week, defying expectations of a 2 million barrel decline and marking the largest increase in three months. Adding further pressure is the fact that OPEC+ appears set to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total increase through 2025 to 1.78 million barrels per day, equivalent to more than 1.5% of global demand.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.56%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.62%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.66%.

The Bank of Japan should resume raising rates after a temporary pause to assess the impact of US tariffs on the Japanese economy, a BoJ board member said on Thursday. According to Takata, Japan is approaching its 2% inflation target, helped by strong corporate earnings, labor shortages, and wage growth. He also warned that if the Fed resumes cutting rates, it could reduce the Bank of Japan’s policy flexibility. However, Takata sees no signs of a recession in the US.

The Australian dollar fell to $0.657 on Thursday, ending a three-session winning streak amid weak trade data. Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to 2.24 billion Australian dollars in May, well below expectations of 5.09 billion Australian dollars and the revised figure of 4.86 billion Australian dollars in April. This was the smallest surplus in nearly five years, with exports falling to a three-month low due to weaker shipments from the US, which were affected by tariffs. Additional pressure came from data on the PMI index in the services sector of China, Australia’s main trading partner, which fell to a nine-month low and failed to meet expectations.