Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 27

Precious metal prices are falling amid declining demand for safe-haven assets. The US and Thailand are close to signing a trade agreement

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) edged up by 0.02%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.36%. The US stocks were mostly flat as investors digested the new trade agreement between the US and the EU and prepared for a busy week filled with earnings reports and key economic data.

President Trump announced a tariff agreement with the EU, setting a baseline rate of 15% (lower than the previously threatened 30%) amid growing hopes for an extension of the US-China trade truce. Despite easing trade tensions, market sentiment remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainty about the broader economic impact of tariffs. Attention is now shifting to earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, as well as the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where investors will closely watch for any hints of a potential rate cut in September.

European stock markets mostly declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.43%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.43%. Major European equity markets fell after an early rally driven by the US-EU trade deal. The framework agreement includes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, as well as an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of energy and additional military equipment from the US. The deal also provides selective access to key segments of the European market. While considered a better outcome than the previously threatened 30–50% tariffs proposed by Trump, lingering uncertainty over the final terms sparked concern among European leaders.

WTI crude oil prices jumped more than 2% to $66.70 per barrel on Monday amid renewed geopolitical fears after US President Donald Trump accelerated the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump warned that Russia has 10–12 days to comply or face 100% “secondary tariffs,” raising concerns over potential disruptions in oil supplies. This follows new EU sanctions, including a lower price cap on Russian oil and a ban on importing petroleum products from third countries, set to take effect in January. If fully implemented, such measures could reduce global oil supply, especially given OPEC’s limited spare capacity.

The US natural gas prices dropped to $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest level since April 22, as weaker-than-expected summer heat and high production levels kept downward pressure on prices throughout July. Meanwhile, production remained high, averaging 107.2 billion cubic feet per day across the lower 48 US states in July, exceeding June’s record of 106.4 billion cubic feet per day. Inventories were about 6% above seasonal norms, reinforcing the view of an oversupplied market.

On Monday, silver prices remained under pressure, staying below $38.50 per ounce after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as recent trade deals between the US and key partners reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, markets are watching for further developments in US-China trade talks, which begin today in Stockholm, with expectations that discussions will go beyond tariffs and include broader geopolitical and economic issues.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 1.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed by 0.68%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.36%.

Thailand aims to finalize trade negotiations with the US by the August 1 deadline, and US tariffs are unlikely to reach 36%, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said on Tuesday. Bangkok expects a “very favorable” trade deal from the Trump administration following a peace initiative that resolved the border conflict with Cambodia. In 2024, the US was Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for 18.3% of total exports, or $54.96 billion, while the US trade deficit with Thailand stood at $45.6 billion.

Hong Kong’s trade deficit widened to $58.9 billion in June 2025 from $55.7 billion in the same month last year. Exports rose by 11.9% year-over-year to $417.8 billion. Meanwhile, imports increased by 11.1% to $476.7 billion. Imports from most major suppliers showed strong growth, particularly from Vietnam (+50.6%), the United Kingdom (+44.7%), and the US (+3.9%).

S&P 500 (US500) 6,389.77 +1.13 (+0.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,837.56 −64.36 (−0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 23,970.36 −247.14 (−1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,081.44 −38.87 (−0.43%)

USD Index 98.65 +1.00 (+1.03%)

News feed for: 2025.07.29

  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

S&P 500 hits an all-time high for five consecutive days. RBNZ plans rate cut at August meeting

By JustMarkets

As of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47% (up +1.20% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.40% (weekly +1.33%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up 0.23% (weekly +0.64%). On Friday, the S&P 500 reached its fifth consecutive record close, the longest streak in over a year. Trade negotiations fueled market optimism, as President Trump planned to meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday amid hopes of a US-EU trade deal. Agreements were also reached with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, though talks with Canada have stalled. Strong financial results from Alphabet and Verizon boosted sentiment, while Intel weighed on the tech sector after issuing a profit warning and announcing layoffs.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 0.32% (weekly -0.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) edged up 0.21% (weekly +0.11%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.13% (weekly +1.75%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended down 0.20% (weekly +1.43%). European stocks closed mostly lower as markets continued to assess recent corporate earnings reports. Schneider Electric and Airbus both fell more than 1% ahead of next week’s earnings releases, setting a negative tone for industrials. ASML and Nokia each dropped around 1.5%, with the latter continuing to slide after a pessimistic earnings report earlier in the week. On the positive side, LVMH jumped 4% after releasing its results, while Volkswagen also rose by 4% despite a negative outlook in its report, lifting the luxury goods and automotive sectors overall.

Over the weekend, the US, and EU reached a trade agreement. The deal introduces a 15% tariff on most European goods, significantly lower than the initially threatened 30% from Washington, easing concerns about a broader trade conflict. The announcement was made jointly by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, key details, such as the specific industries covered and the scope of possible exemptions. remain unclear.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.3% on Friday, closing at $65.2 per barrel (the lowest since June 30) as concerns over weakening economic signals from the US and China pressured prices. For the week, WTI declined by about 3%, driven by signs of rising global supply and slowing business investment. The US is preparing to allow Chevron and other companies to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially boosting oil exports by over 200,000 barrels per day and easing shortages of heavier crude grades. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to raise production at its Monday meeting, aiming to regain market share as summer demand absorbs the additional barrels.

Asian markets mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged 3.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.59%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a decline of 1.03%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.602 but remained on track for a weekly gain, supported by improved investor sentiment amid prospects of new US trade deals. Domestically, markets are pricing in a roughly 75% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its benchmark rate from 3.25% by 25 basis points at its August meeting, though investors suspect this may be near the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said Thursday the Central Bank is prepared to cut rates further if price pressures continue to ease, as expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,388.64 +25.29 (+0.40%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,901.92 +208.01 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 24,217.50 −78.43 (−0.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,120.31 −18.06 (−0.20%)

USD Index 97.67 +0.30 (+0.31%)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Strong Alphabet report pushes indices to new highs; US-Canada tariff talks stall

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, the US stocks traded mixed: the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.70%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.07%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.25%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both ended Thursday at record highs, supported by strong earnings from Alphabet, which boosted investor confidence in AI-related investments.

Alphabet shares rose by 1% after the company beat Q2 expectations and raised its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 by $10 billion, lifting other tech giants like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon. Tesla fell by 7.9% after CEO Elon Musk warned of challenging quarters ahead. Markets also focused on an unexpected visit by President Trump to the Federal Reserve, where he increased pressure on Chairman Powell regarding interest rates. Meanwhile, trade negotiations remained a key topic: progress was reported in talks with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, although Trump stated that tariffs would not fall below 15%.

The Canadian dollar traded near 1.36 per US dollar, rebounding sharply from the July 17 low of 1.374, aided by a weakening US dollar as optimism returned around US trade deals with Japan and the EU, possibly preventing tariff escalation. Rising crude oil prices also supported Canada’s export revenues and lent further strength to the loonie. However, the rally paused as markets shifted focus to the looming August 1 tariff deadline, with US-Canada talks deadlocked. At the same time, stronger June retail sales likely support domestic growth expectations and increase pressure on the Bank of Canada to extend its easing cycle.

European stock markets traded higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.41%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.34%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the day 0.85% higher. On Thursday, European stocks closed higher as markets evaluated the outlook for EU trade and monetary policy. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged and noted that disinflation is progressing in line with its previous forecasts. The central bank also stated that more information on economic developments is needed for further policy clarity. Nevertheless, markets trimmed expectations for rate cuts this year after ECB President Christine Lagarde said that cuts might be unjustified. Meanwhile, reports emerged that the US is likely to agree to reduce tariffs on the EU to 15%, the lowest level applied to other countries, amid a trade deal that EU diplomats are close to finalizing.

The UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell to 19 in July 2025 from 18 in June, pulling back from a six-month high as households became more cautious amid growing concerns about taxes and inflation. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to raise taxes for the second consecutive year in her upcoming budget, after Prime Minister Keir Starmer scrapped previous plans to cut billions in welfare spending. Amid uncertainty, households boosted savings, with GfK’s savings index jumping 7 points to 34, its highest since November 2007, reflecting a shift toward financial prudence.

Hopes that easing trade tensions will support global economic growth helped ease concerns over future oil demand. WTI crude prices rose 1.2% to $66 per barrel on Thursday, breaking a four-day losing streak. On the supply side, US crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week, more than double analysts’ expectations, signaling strong demand.

Asian markets mostly advanced yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.59%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.51%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.32%.

In New Zealand, markets are pricing in a roughly 75% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points from 3.25% at its August meeting, though investors suspect it may be near the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said Thursday that the central bank is prepared to lower rates further if price pressures continue to ease as expected, warning that US tariffs could weigh on economic growth and inflation. This week, the New Zealand dollar rose by 1%, ending a two-week losing streak.

The Australian dollar fell to around 0.658 USD on Friday, extending losses from the previous session as investors remained cautious ahead of next week’s key inflation data releases. Both monthly and quarterly inflation figures are expected, which could play a pivotal role in shaping the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy outlook. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently emphasized that the central bank is not ready to cut interest rates until stronger evidence emerges that inflation is sustainably returning to its 2.5% target, defending the RBA’s slow and steady approach.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,363.35 +4.44 (+0.07%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,693.91 −316.38 (−0.70%)

DAX (DE40) 24,295.93 +55.11 (+0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,138.37 +76.88 (+0.85%)

USD index 97.52 +0.31 (+0.32%)

News feed for: 2025.07.25

  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

European indices under pressure amid tariff concerns. Japan and the Philippines signed a tariff deal with the US

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday, the US stocks closed mixed: the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.40%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.06%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.39%. Semiconductor stocks weighed on the Nasdaq, with Nvidia down 2.4% and Broadcom falling 3.3% after reports that a major AI initiative involving SoftBank and OpenAI had stalled. Lockheed Martin (-10.8%) and Philip Morris (-8.2%) saw sharp declines following disappointing results. General Motors (-8%) also warned of a deeper profit decline due to tariffs, following a 32% drop in Q2, which amplified investor concerns about the impact of trade policy.

On the trade front, President Trump announced a deal with the Philippines, involving a 19% tariff rate, though confirmation from Manila is still pending. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the US will likely extend tariffs on China and plans to meet with Chinese officials next week in Stockholm.

The Mexican peso stabilized at 18.68 per US dollar, close to its yearly high of 18.60 reached on July 10, supported by a weaker dollar globally, continued duty-free access under USMCA, and attractive domestic interest rate differentials. Mexico has so far avoided retaliatory tariffs due to President Trump’s temporary suspension of new duties, which has boosted export competitiveness and eased current account pressures.

European stock markets traded mixed yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.69% lower, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) also ended 0.07% higher. European stocks closed lower for the third straight day amid ongoing concerns about potential US tariffs. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that White House officials prioritize favorable trade deals rather than rushing to meet the August 1 deadline, potentially paving the way for 30% tariffs on EU goods before negotiations conclude.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $66 per barrel on Wednesday after three days of declines, supported by progress in US trade talks that improved sentiment on demand prospects. Another bullish signal came from the US Energy Secretary, who stated that the government may consider sanctions on Russian oil to help end the war in Ukraine. Further support came from US crude inventories, which fell by 0.6 million barrels last week, ending a three-week streak of increases and indicating stronger demand. However, distillate inventories increased. Traders now await the release of official inventory data due later today.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) edged down 0.11%, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.10%.

The Australian dollar rose to 0.656 USD on Wednesday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains, supported by improving global trade sentiment. Domestically, recent data showed the Westpac Leading Index slowed to 0.03% in June, reflecting weaker momentum due to falling commodity prices and reduced work hours. Markets also digested the cautious tone of the Reserve Bank, as meeting minutes showed policymakers favor gradual policy easing and prefer to wait for clearer signs of inflation cooling. Attention now turns to PMI data due later today for insights into July’s business conditions.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan rose to 7.16 per dollar, its highest level in more than two weeks, as investors closely monitored developments in US-China trade relations. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that American and Chinese officials will meet next week in Stockholm for a third round of high-level talks. The ongoing negotiations aim to reach a temporary trade truce to ease tensions in the escalating tariff dispute, which has already led both countries to impose triple-digit tariffs, raising fears of a major disruption in bilateral trade.

President Donald Trump also announced the signing of a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. He also stated that Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets to key American products.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,309.62 +4.02 (+0.06%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,502.44 +179.37 (+0.40%)

DAX (DE40) 24,041.90 −265.90 (−1.09%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,023.81 +10.82 (+0.12%)

USD Index 97.37 −0.48 (−0.49%)

News feed for: 2025.07.23

  • Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Stock indices are once again hitting all-time highs. Natural gas prices fell by more than 6%

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.14%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.50%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes closed at record highs on Monday as optimism over strong corporate earnings outweighed lingering trade tensions. Growth in mega-large tech companies, such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, fueled the rally. Alphabet rose by 2.7% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report. Verizon shares also rose by 4% after the release of a strong quarterly report, fueling hopes for continued earnings growth. So far, more than 85% of companies reporting on the S&P 500 have beaten expectations, with the large technology industry expected to provide most of the projected 6–7% earnings growth this quarter. Investor sentiment remained upbeat despite uncertainty over tariffs. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick again called August 1 a “hard deadline” for compliance, although negotiations could continue beyond that.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.31%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.30%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.23%. European stocks posted modest losses on Monday as markets continued to assess the outlook for EU trade. The US authorities maintained their threat to impose 30% tariffs on EU exports, while the EU Commission continued to negotiate lower duty rates until August 1. At the same time, the EU also signaled that aggressive retaliatory measures would follow in the absence of an agreement, risking escalation of tensions and price hikes in the bloc. Luxury giants led the session’s losses, with Hermes, LVMH, and Ferrari falling 0.5–1.6%. Meanwhile, Stellantis lost 1.5% despite reporting a loss of more than €2.3 billion in the first half of the year due to restructuring costs and US tariffs. In addition, Ryanair jumped 5.7% after reporting that its first-quarter net profit more than doubled.

WTI crude oil prices held near the 67.1 dollar per barrel mark on Monday. The focus remained on US-EU trade talks ahead of potential US tariffs on EU imports from August 1, while the EU stepped up pressure on Russia with its 18th package of sanctions. The new measures include lower price caps on Russian crude, restrictions on the supply of oil products, and a ban on a major Indian refinery using Russian crude. China has responded to EU sanctions targeting its banks and firms by vowing to protect its interests. Meanwhile, Iran will hold nuclear talks with EU countries this Friday amid threats of renewed international sanctions.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell more than 6% to $3.34/MMBtu on Monday, reversing part of the 7% gain made last week as prices were pressured by high supply and lower demand expectations. Production reached a new record in July, averaging 107.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day), surpassing the previous June high of 106.4 bcf/day. This surge in production allowed energy companies to pump 46 bcf into storage during the week ended July 11, well above both the 18 bcf added during the same week last year and the five-year average of 41 bcf. As a result, total gas inventories are now 6.2% above the seasonal norm.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose to $38.9 an ounce, the highest level since August 2011, as the US dollar and Treasury yields declined amid concerns about ongoing trade talks and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Fed spokesman Christopher Waller reiterated his support for easing rates in July, citing a weakening labor market and lower inflation risks. He also downplayed the inflationary impact of rates, calling it temporary, and stated that there are no signs of rising inflation expectations, giving the Fed room to act. Further support for silver came from China, where the Ministry of Industry pledged to stabilize growth in key sectors such as machinery, automobiles, and electrical equipment. This initiative is aimed at modernizing production and is expected to boost demand for metals.

Asian markets traded yesterday without any single dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.21%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.33%, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.68%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) yesterday showed a negative result of 1.02%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considered a third rate cut in four meetings, but ultimately stayed on hold, deeming such a move inconsistent with a strategy of cautious and gradual easing, minutes of the July meeting showed. A minority of the Council’s representatives supported a rate cut, citing downside risks to global economic growth and weak domestic GDP, which could lead to a faster decline in inflation than previously expected.

Hong Kong’s annualized inflation rate fell to 1.4% in June 2025 from 1.9% in the previous month, the slowest pace in three months. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices were unchanged in June after falling 0.3% in May.

Malaysia’s annualized inflation rate for June 2025 was 1.1%, slightly below the market consensus and May’s 1.2%. This is the lowest rate since February 2021. Core inflation, which excludes volatile fresh food and administrative prices, held at 1.8% y/y for the second month, remaining at the highest level since November 2023.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,305.60 +8.81 (+0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,323.07 −19.12 (−0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 24,307.80 +18.29 (+0.075%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,012.99 +20.87 (+0.23%)

USD Index 97.86 −0.62 (−0.63%)

News feed for: 2025.07.22

  • Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 12:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Richmond Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

India’s Economic Surge: A New Era of Trade and Growth

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/18/25)

Could the next major powerhouse in world trading be India? Experts talk about the Asian country and its similarities to China before its economy exploded.

The federal debt relative to the U.S. economy has reached heights unseen since World War II, according to a report by Wendy Edelberg, Ben Harris, and Louise Sheiner for Brookings in February.

Without adjustments to tax and spending policies, it is expected to rise continuously. The existing tax structure is insufficient to meet the escalating costs associated with retirement and health benefits for an aging demographic, according to the report. To date, the U.S. has managed to borrow trillions annually. However, analysts caution that the mounting national debt is bound to precipitate a financial crisis.

In an interview with Lisa Abramowicz at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles that was posted June 11 on YouTube, DoubleLine Group Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach said one of the “most-bankable” long-term themes to look at is investing in India, now the world’s most populous country with 1.46 billion people in 2025. As much as 40% of that population is under 25, giving the country a young demographic profile, as well.

“Because India has a similar profile today to where China was 35 years ago, when they had tremendous population, labor force, visibility of labor force growth, tremendous problems, a gummed-up legal system, (and) corruption all over the place,” Gundlach said. “But those are things that can be fixed. And you see, China went from 1/12th of the U. S. GDP to 70-80% of U. S. GDP.”

He continued, “India has the same demographic outlook as China did then,” and has the benefit of being “very technological.”

A Trade Agreement Enhancing Exports?

A substantial trade agreement between New Delhi and Washington could significantly enhance India’s exports and manufacturing sector, leading to prolonged economic growth, as per Bloomberg Economics, reported Ruchi Bhatia for Bloomberg on July 5.

Such a deal could potentially double India’s exports of goods to the U.S. — its largest international market, which constitutes 19.3% of its total exports — over the next decade, and boost its gross domestic product by 0.6%, according to a report by economists Abhishek Gupta and Eleonora Mavroeidi, Bhatia reported.

Including services, total exports to the U.S. are projected to increase by 64%, the report added.

The majority of these export gains are expected to come from textiles and light manufacturing goods, such as furniture, toys, and other consumer products. The economists noted that the trade agreement would represent a significant turning point for India’s domestic manufacturing sector.

Nikita Yadav reported for the BBC on July 17 that “Washington and Delhi are ‘very close’ to finalizing a trade deal” as high-level talks between the sides continue.

“We’re very close to a deal with India where they open it [the market] up,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday, Yadav reported.

With the Trump administration imposing substantial tariffs on China and Vietnam, a trade deal that sets tariffs at 10% for India could position the country as an attractive option for businesses looking to relocate or diversify their supply chains, the economists explained.

Should the trade deal not materialize and India faces higher reciprocal tariffs of 26%, the country could lose more than a third of its direct exports to the U.S., and its GDP could suffer a 0.7% decline, according to the report.

India was one of the first countries to start trade negotiations with the U.S. this year, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi making significant concessions to satisfy the White House. However, in recent weeks, both parties have adopted firmer positions on sectors such as agriculture.

India Starting to Look Safer, Researcher Says

According to Investing.com, Indian stocks closed higher on July 16, with gains in the Real Estate, Technology, and Public Sector Undertakings sectors driving the shares upward. At the close on the NSE, the Nifty 50 was up by 0.06%, while the BSE Sensex 30 index increased by 0.08%.

India’s stock market is poised to reach new heights by the end of 2025 and is expected to continue its ascent into the following year, according to a Reuters survey of equity analysts. Despite some concerns about high valuations and the potential for a correction in the next three months, the outlook remains optimistic. After a period of selling, foreign investors became net purchasers in April for the first time in four months. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Nifty 50 index has surged nearly 15% from a 10-month low in early April, although it remains below its all-time peak of 26,277.35 reached in late September, Vivek Mishra reported for Reuters.

The BSE Sensex is projected to rise to 86,100 by the end of 2025, reaching 89,000 by mid-2026 and 95,000 by the end of 2026, according to the poll.

“India is starting to look like a safer bet since there aren’t many growth alternatives,” Yogesh Kalinge, associate director of research at A.K. Capital Services, told Reuters. “Trump’s policy is not leading to the usual outflows toward the U.S. safe haven and is in fact making emerging markets look better . . .  (But) if you look at valuations, they do look stretched.”

With an average price-to-earnings ratio of 23.52, the Indian stock market is among the most expensive globally, trailing only the U.S. at 25.41 and significantly above China’s 12.00. Of the analysts who responded to an additional question, 15 out of 28 indicated that a correction — typically defined as a decline of 10% or more — was very likely or likely. The remaining 13 viewed it as unlikely or very unlikely.

“I expect a correction in the short term . . .  because of the inability of large caps to grow as expected. Large-cap index revenue growth is below India’s nominal economic growth, which is worrisome,” stated Sreeram Ramdas, vice president at Green Portfolio PMS.

A substantial majority, 23 out of 29 analysts, anticipate that corporate earnings growth in 2025 will be marginally higher, with four predicting significantly higher growth, the Reuters piece reported. Six analysts expect earnings to be marginally or significantly lower.

Profit growth for Nifty 50 companies remained subdued in the December quarter, with most companies missing estimates. However, this was an improvement after three notably weaker quarters.

“Earnings growth moderated due to a slower recovery in private sector investment. While some of these pressures have started to ease, the recovery has been insufficient to offset the overall slowdown in corporate performance,” explained Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking.

Seeking Alpha ranked Indian stocks according to its “quantamental” analysis, which grades stocks based on collective value, growth, profitability, earnings per share revisions, and price momentum metrics.

The site said William Blair & Co. analysts attribute India’s superior performance to robust economic fundamentals, advantageous demographics, and an expanding middle class. In their Emerging Markets 2025 report, the analysts noted, “The current valuation premium…should prompt investors to adopt a cautious, quality-focused approach in the present climate.”

They further added, “As India progresses along its growth path, it has the capacity to mirror China’s swift economic rise that began in the early 1990s, though potentially with a more balanced and sustainable approach to growth.”

Here are three stocks listed by the site as offering exposure to markets in this this emerging trade powerhouse.

MakeMyTrip Ltd.

MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT:NASDAQ), based in Gurugram, scored 3.18 out of 5 on Sthat scale. It manages prominent online travel brands such as MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus. Through the company’s main websites, www.makemytrip.com, www.goibibo.com, www.redbus.in, and mobile applications, travelers can explore, plan, and book a broad array of travel services and products both within India and internationally, the company said on its site.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

MakeMyTrip Ltd. (MMYT:NASDAQ)

Institutions: 75%
Strategic Corporate Entities: 15%
Retail: 7%
Insiders and Management: 3%
75%
15%
7%
3%
*Share Structure as of 7/16/2025

 

Offerings include air ticketing, bookings for hotels and alternative accommodations, vacation planning and packages, bus and rail ticketing, car rentals, and other travel necessities like third-party travel insurance, foreign exchange services, and visa processing.

MakeMyTrip said it offers customers comprehensive access to all major domestic full-service and budget airlines in India, as well as major international airlines flying to and from India. Additionally, the company said it provides a vast selection of domestic lodging options in India and numerous accommodation choices abroad, connections to Indian Railways, and all principal bus operators in India.

According to Seeking Alpha, in the last 90 days, seven Wall Street analysts have rated the stock a Strong Buy and three have rated it a Buy.

MakeMyTrip closed the Tuesday trading session at US$93.01, marking a +2.25% increase from the previous day’s close, according to a report by Zacks Equity Research published by Yahoo! Finance. This performance outpaced the S&P 500, which saw a decline of 0.4% on the same day. Conversely, the Dow fell by 0.98%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq saw a modest rise of 0.18%.

Over the past month, shares of the online travel company have declined by 9.83%, underperforming the Computer and Technology sector, which gained 6.34%, and the S&P 500, which rose by 4.97%.

Investors are keenly anticipating MakeMyTrip’s performance in its forthcoming earnings announcement, the Zacks report noted. The company is scheduled to release its earnings report on July 22, 2025. It is expected to post earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45, reflecting a 15.38% increase from the same quarter last year. Additionally, the latest consensus estimate projects the company’s revenue to hit US$277.12 million, up 8.88% from the same quarter of the previous year.

MakeMyTrip recently launched a significant primary offering that included 14 million shares, with an additional 2.1 million shares available through a greenshoe option; and a 0% convertible senior note valued at US$1.25 billion due in 2030, with a greenshoe option of US$187.5 million, Manik Taneja of Axis Capital wrote in an updated research note on June 17. The analyst set a rating of ADD with a target price of US$120 per share.

This move aims to purchase a substantial portion of Class B shares from its majority shareholder, Trip.com, reducing their stake from approximately 45% to around 20% following the transaction. Our preliminary estimates (see Exhibit 1 below) indicate that the earnings impact should be minimal, as the change in the number of shares is relatively slight compared to our forecasts. The recent market correction presents an opportunity to invest in a consistent performer, especially considering the positive demand trends in the Indian Travel tech sector.

According to a July 14 research note by Ambit Institutional Equities Analyst Ashwin Mehta, some keys to look for from the company include “growth outlook, especially recovery in domestic air ticketing, outbound air and hotel momentum, and any impact of macro uncertainties (that) led pullback on travel spends.

Mehta rated the stock a Buy with a US$117 per share target price.

Refinitiv notes that about 3% of the company is owned by insiders, about 15% by strategic corporate entities, and 75% by institutions. The rest is retail.

Top shareholders include Trip.com Group Ltd. with 11.99%, GIC Private Ltd. with 7.64%, Baillie Gifford & Co. with 5.74%, Fidelity Management & Research Co. with 4.35%, and Travogue Electronic Travel Private Ltd. with 2.62%.

Its market cap is US$8.85 billion 95.15 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$76.95 and $123.

Infosys Ltd.

Infosys Ltd. (INFY:NYSE), headquartered in Bengaluru, provides next-generation digital services and consulting. With a workforce of over 320,000, the company said it strives to enhance human potential and forge new opportunities for individuals, businesses, and communities worldwide.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Infosys Ltd. (INFY:NYSE)

Retail: 86%
Institutions: 14%
86%
14%
*Share Structure as of 7/16/2025

 

Infosys, which scored 3.09 on Seeking Alpha’s scale, said it assists clients across more than 59 countries on their journey through digital transformation, powered by cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.

On Wednesday, the company unveiled the Infosys Enterprise Innovation Lab for SAP Solutions at its Düsseldorf, Germany location. This initiative, emerging from a collaboration between Infosys and SAP, is crafted to empower enterprises to delve into the expansive potential of AI and data, develop bespoke solutions for their unique business challenges, and expedite the adoption of advanced Infosys and SAP technologies.

The lab is designed to facilitate the creation of solutions that boost financial performance, enhance operational efficiency, improve risk management, and support decision-making through real-time data insights, while also elevating compliance and security standards. Innovations developed in the Düsseldorf lab will be accessible globally through Infosys’ network of over 12 Living Labs.

“Enterprises looking to adopt new SAP solutions will find that the Infosys Enterprise Innovation Lab for SAP Solutions significantly smoothens their transformation journey,” said Infosys Executive Vice President and Chief Delivery Officer Dines Rao. “Located in our Düsseldorf office, this collaborative space is designed to develop customized solutions. Leveraging Infosys Topaz and Infosys Cobalt, we aim to enable businesses to fully utilize cloud, data, and AI technologies, achieving substantial business benefits such as improved efficiency, better decision-making, cost reductions, and preparedness for the future.”

A June 11 research note by Daniel Alvarez and Scott White for Yaru Investments titled “India’s Artificial Intelligence Supercycle” noted that Infosys was one of India’s “IT leaders.”

Infosys is renowned for its comprehensive approach to integrating enterprise AI. The Topaz platform consolidates generative AI, machine learning, and automation into industry-specific modules applicable to sectors like banking, manufacturing, and healthcare. Through significant partnerships with major platforms such as Microsoft Azure and AWS, Infosys collaborates to create customized LLM-based solutions for its global clientele.

“Infosys stands out for its end-to-end approach to enterprise AI integration,” the analysts noted. “Its Topaz platform brings together generative AI, machine learning, and automation into deployable modules tailored for industries such as banking, manufacturing, and healthcare. With major partnerships (including with Microsoft Azure and AWS), Infosys co-develops customized LLM-based solutions for global clients.”

The company’s commitment to reskilling its workforce, particularly in areas like prompt engineering and AI ethics, establishes Infosys as a preferred partner for organizations looking to implement GenAI on a large scale, they wrote. Crucially, Infosys has successfully transitioned AI from experimental phases to a source of revenue generation, with discussions with clients increasingly focused on the productivity improvements and cost efficiencies driven by AI.

According to Refinitiv, about 14% of the company is owned by institutions, and the rest is retail.

Top shareholders include First Trust Advisors LP with 0.97%, Robeco Institutional Asset Management with 0.66%, Acadian Asset Management LLC with 0.64%, State Street Global Advisors (US) with 0.41%, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management LP with 0.4%

Its market cap is US$77.52 billion with 4.14 billion shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$15.82 and US$23.63.

ICICI Bank Ltd.

ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN:NYSE) scored the highest on Seeking Alpha’s rankings with 4.86 out of 5 points. The company continues to stand out as a structural compounder, boasting an industry-leading return profile and consistently outperforming its major peers in terms of growth, according to a research note by Axis Capital’s Jayant Kharote on June 18.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

ICICI Bank Ltd. (IBN:NYSE)

Retail: 80%
Institutions: 19%
Strategic Corporate Entities: 1%
80%
19%
*Share Structure as of 7/17/2025

 

Its robust foothold in the mortgage and unsecured segments, along with an expanding SME/BB franchise, is expected to propel credit growth recovery to around 15%, the analyst noted. While the impact on Net Interest Margin (NIM) might be slightly more pronounced compared to its peers, a recovery is anticipated by Q4FY26/Q1FY27E.

The bank’s dominant retail franchise provides an additional lever for fee growth, helping to mitigate near-term pressures on earnings per share (EPS). Over the medium term, ICICI Bank is poised to maintain its leadership in growth and return ratios among the large private banks.

However, its rich valuation suggests limited upside potential, leading the firm to maintain its ADD rating on the stock.

Should there be a delay in systemic recovery, ICICI Bank is better positioned compared to its peers, offering a more secure investment option in the context of a credit growth revival, Kharote wrote.

“ICICI Bank continues to exhibit best-in-class asset quality metrics,” the analyst wrote.

On April 19, the company released a performance review for the quarter ending March 31.

It noted that profit before tax, excluding treasury activities, increased by 13.2% year-on-year to 16,534 crore (US$1.9 billion), and core operating profit rose by 13.7% year-on-year to 17,425 crore (US$2.0 billion). Profit after tax saw an 18% year-on-year increase to 12,630 crore (US$1.5 billion) in that quarter.

For the fiscal year ending March 31, profit before tax, excluding treasury, grew by 11.4% year-on-year to 60,713 crore (US$7.1 billion), and core operating profit for FY2025 increased by 12.5% year-on-year to 65,396 crore (US$7.6 billion), ICICI said in a release.

“The Board has recommended a dividend of 11 rupees per share for FY2025,” the company said. “The declaration and payment of dividend is subject to requisite approvals.”

Refinitiv noted that less than 1% of the company is owned by strategic corporate entities and about 19% by institutions. The rest is retail.

Top shareholders include GQG Partners LLC with 2.17%, WCM Investment Management with 1.5%, Morgan Stanley Investment Management with 0.99%, Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. with 0.76%, and Capital International Investors with 0.56%.

Its market cap is US$117.85 billion with 3.6 billion shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$27.26 and US$34.50.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Inflationary pressure is increasing in New Zealand. The People’s Bank of China kept interest rates unchanged

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.32% (-0.01% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.01% (+0.67% for the week). The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed down 0.07% (+1.25% for the week). The US stocks closed nearly flat on Friday as investors weighed President Trump’s demand for higher tariffs against the European Union amid strong economic data and corporate earnings. According to reports, Trump is demanding minimum tariffs of 15–20% in any deal with the EU, which is working to conclude an agreement by August 1. On the corporate front, Netflix shares fell by 5.1% despite exceeding revenue and profit estimates, while Charles Schwab shares rose 3% thanks to strong results.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US rose to 61.8 in July 2025, its highest level in five months. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for the second month in a row to 4.4% from 5% in June. Long-term inflation expectations fell for the third consecutive month, dropping to 3.6% from 4%. Both inflation indicators are the lowest since February, indicating that consumers believe inflation will continue to decline further.

European stock markets were mostly down on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.33% (+1.05% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.01% (+0.63% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.04% (+0.67% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.22% (+0.57% for the week). European stocks closed in the red on Friday as investors monitored corporate events and signs of progress in trade negotiations between the US and the European Union. Technology companies continued their volatile movement as tariffs and broader economic uncertainty continued to cloud their outlook, with ASML shares falling 2.6%. Heavyweight luxury brands and automakers also closed in the red: Hermes, LVMH, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis lost between 1% and 3%.

WTI oil price reached $67.3 per barrel on Friday, posting a weekly decline of 1%, as mixed economic data from the US offset concerns about new EU sanctions on Russian energy exports. Weak US housing data points to a decline in housing investment, but improved consumer sentiment and lower inflation have raised hopes for future rate cuts and increased demand for energy. Meanwhile, the EU approved an 18th package of sanctions targeting the Russian oil industry, including a new floating price cap and a ban on petroleum products made from Russian oil.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.12%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 3.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 2.06%.

The offshore yuan exchange rate remained virtually unchanged on Monday at around 7.17 per dollar as markets digested the latest decision by the People’s Bank of China. As expected, the Central Bank kept its benchmark lending rates at historic lows during its July rate-setting meeting. The 1-year prime rate, which is a key benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was kept at 3%, while the 5-year LPR, which determines mortgage rates, remained at 3.5%. This comes amid continuing signs of weak consumer sentiment and uneven economic growth.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.594 on Monday, reversing the previous session’s gains and ending up near a four-week low as investors reacted to softer-than-expected inflation data. In the second quarter, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5%, below the expectations of 0.6% compared to 0.9% in the first quarter. On an annualized basis, inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.5%, but fell short of the expectations of 2.8%. Although inflation is approaching the upper end of the RBNZ’s target range of 1–3%, weak underlying pressures and a significant economic downturn have kept expectations of a rate cut in August intact.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,296.79 −0.57 (−0.01%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,342.19 −142.30 (−0.32%)

DAX (DE40) 24,289.51 −81.42 (−0.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,992.12 +19.48 (+0.22%)

USD Index 98.46 −0.27 (−0.27%)

News feed for: 2025.07.21

  • New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:00 (GMT+3);
  • Canada BOC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The US has passed a law on stablecoins. Escalating tensions in the Middle East are once again supporting oil prices

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.52%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index rose by 0.54%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed higher by 0.75%. The US stocks rose on Thursday as strong earnings and economic data helped major indices reach new record highs. The US retail sales rose by 0.6% in June, exceeding expectations and underscoring the resilience of consumer spending despite ongoing tariff issues. Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, bolstering confidence in the strength of the labor market. Shares of United Airlines and PepsiCo rose by 3.1% and 7.4%, respectively. TSMC shares added 3.9% on record profits, boosting chipmakers including Nvidia (+0.9%) and Marvell (+1.6%) and lifting sentiment across the chip sector ahead of Netflix’s quarterly results, due to be released after the close.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.37 per US dollar, its lowest level since early June. The broad-based recovery of the US dollar, driven by rising US retail sales, unexpectedly low weekly jobless claims, and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates longer, put pressure on the CAD.

On Friday, Bitcoin rose above $120,000, just shy of the record high reached earlier in the week, as markets reacted to the passage of the first major digital assets law in the US. The House of Representatives approved the bill on Thursday after the Senate voted in favor of it earlier, and President Donald Trump is expected to sign it later in the day. The legislation establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins — digital tokens backed by assets such as the US dollar — marking a key milestone after years of lobbying by the industry. Over the past year, Bitcoin has risen nearly 30% thanks to optimism about regulatory progress and growing institutional demand through ETFs.

European stock markets were mostly higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.51%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.29%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.78%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.52%.

European stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, erasing the losses of the last three sessions, as markets assessed a number of key corporate indicators and revised their outlook for European trade. Consumer price inflation in the Eurozone in June 2025 was confirmed at 2% year-on-year, up from May’s eight-month low of 1.9% and in line with the European Central Bank’s official target. Inflation in the services sector accelerated to 3.3% from May’s three-year low of 3.2%. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, remained at 2.3%, the lowest since January 2022.

WTI oil prices rose by 1.7% to $67.5 per barrel on Thursday, ending a three-day losing streak as low inventories and renewed tensions in the Middle East supported the market. According to the latest data, US crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week, significantly exceeding previous expectations and signaling a reduction in supply. Meanwhile, drone attacks on oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan led to a shutdown and reduction in production of 150,000 barrels per day. Ongoing instability in the region, including recent Israeli strikes in Syria, also heightened market concerns.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) in the US are holding at $3.56/MMBtu, the highest in three weeks, due to increased demand for cooling in hotter-than-usual weather. Power generators are burning more gas to meet air conditioning needs. In addition, projections show that high temperatures will continue in the lower 48 states until early August, with the peak of the summer heat expected next week.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.08%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.90%.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, slightly higher than the 4.4% growth in the previous period. The growth was driven by an acceleration in agricultural activity, which grew by 2% compared to 0.6% growth. Growth in the services sector also accelerated to 5.3% from 5%, supported by positive performance across all subsectors.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,297.36 +33.66 (+0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,484.49 +229.71 (+0.52%)

DAX (DE40) 24,370.93 +361.55 (+1.51%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,972.64 +46.09 (+0.52%)

USD Index 98.65 +0.26 (+0.26%)

News feed for: 2025.07.18

  • Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Trump wants to fire Jerome Powell again. The RBA is likely to cut rates at its next meeting

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.53%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index rose by 0.32%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed higher by 0.25%. The US stocks rebounded from session lows and closed higher on Wednesday after President Trump said he had no plans to fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, easing concerns sparked by earlier reports that he was considering taking action. Markets initially fell on reports that Trump was considering Powell’s resignation, exacerbating investor concerns about persistent inflation and ongoing trade tensions. The June Producer Price Index, which remained unchanged, brought some relief after Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index came in higher than expected and showed the fastest annual inflation since February. On the corporate front, Bank of America fell by 0.3% after earnings came in below expectations, while Morgan Stanley declined by 1.3% despite solid profits. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs added 1% after beating earnings expectations, and Johnson & Johnson jumped 6.2% after strong results and an upgrade to its full-year expectations.

On Thursday, Bitcoin hovered around $118,000, moving sideways after retreating from record highs earlier in the week as investors assessed developments on key digital assets regulation bills. The House of Representatives approved rules for debating cryptocurrency legislation late Wednesday, the result of intense negotiations and direct intervention by President Trump. While the procedural breakthrough signaled progress, new opposition from moderate Republicans and key committee members over the changes raised doubts about the bill’s ultimate passage. The continuing uncertainty affected sentiment as markets await a clearer direction for regulation.

European stock markets were mostly lower yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.21%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.57%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.08%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.13%. The Frankfurt DAX Index has been falling for five consecutive trading sessions. The index is affected by ongoing trade uncertainty and weak corporate earnings of European companies. While investors were hoping for a more favorable tariff agreement than previously planned, President Trump again threatened to extend tariffs to pharmaceutical products and semiconductors, possibly as early as August 1, when his “retaliatory” tax policy expires. Volkswagen fell by 3.7%, Porsche AG lost 3%, and Mercedes-Benz Group fell by 1.9%.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $66.3 per barrel on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive day of decline. The decline was driven by renewed concerns about potential oversupply and the impact of US trade tariffs on global economic growth and fuel demand. The EIA’s weekly report showed a decline in total US crude oil inventories of 3.86 million barrels, but inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub rose to their highest level since June. Traders remain concerned about the risk of oversupply as OPEC+ accelerates the return of previously cut production volumes and production in North and South America continues to grow.

On Wednesday, silver prices rose to $38 per ounce, recovering from a two-day decline as the US dollar and Treasury yields retreated from recent highs. The pullback came as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and monitored changes in trade dynamics. On Tuesday, silver came under pressure after US consumer inflation data caused traders to abandon expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut.

Asian markets were mostly down on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.04%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.79%.

The Bank of Indonesia lowered its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% at its July 2025 policy meeting, in line with market expectations. This move reflects the inflation projections for 2025–2026, which remains within the target range of 2.5±1%. Annual inflation rose to 1.87% in June from 1.60% in May, slightly above expectations but still within the target range. Meanwhile, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar rose by 0.34% in June and remains stable in mid-July, mainly due to stabilization measures by the Bank of Indonesia. Economic growth in 2025 is expected at between 4.6% and 5.4%.

The Australian dollar weakened to below $0.650 on Thursday, reversing the previous session’s gains, as weaker-than-expected employment data reinforced expectations of an RBA rate cut in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose to a more than three-year high of 4.3% in June, ending a five-month hold and exceeding projections of 4.1%, while employment increased by only 2,000 people, significantly below the expected increase of 20,000. Weak labor market data added to evidence of an economic slowdown, strengthening the case for policy easing. Markets now see an 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Central Bank’s August meeting.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,263.70 +19.94 (+0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,254.78 +231.49 (+0.53%)

DAX (DE40) 24,009.38 −50.91 (−0.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,926.55 −11.77 (−0.13%)

USD Index 98.28 −0.33 (−0.34%)

News feed for: 2025.07.17

  • Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Trump’s tariff policy creates new inflationary threats. The Bank of Canada is likely to maintain its hawkish stance at the next meeting

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 0.98%. The S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.40%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed lower by 0.13%. Investors digested June inflation data, the latest earnings reports from major banks, and news that Nvidia may resume chip sales to China. The Consumer Price Index for June rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, heightening concerns that President Trump’s planned 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico could push inflation higher. The CPI report raised concerns that tariff-driven price pressures are beginning to emerge. Shares of Wells Fargo (-5.5%) and JPMorgan (-0.9%) fell after mixed results, while Citigroup bucked the trend, rising 3.8% on strong results and a share buyback plan. As earnings season gathers momentum, Wall Street remains cautious as S&P 500 earnings growth expectations remain low and uncertainty about future Fed policy grows amid trade and inflation risks.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.37 per US dollar as investors balanced rising domestic inflation with the recent softness of the US currency. Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index, the preferred measure of underlying inflation, remained unchanged at 3% in June, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain its hawkish stance and keep its overnight rate at 2.75% rather than prematurely easing.

European stock markets were mostly down yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.42%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.54%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 1.15%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.66%. On Tuesday, European stock indices lost their early gains and closed mostly lower as markets continued to assess how potential US tariffs could affect European businesses. US President Trump had earlier announced the introduction of 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union from August 1, prompting the bloc to continue its search for a trade agreement. EU officials recently said that negotiations on an agreement to avoid tariffs are continuing, but in any case, a retaliatory package is being prepared that could impose tariffs on US goods worth up to €72 billion.

WTI oil prices fell below $67 a barrel on Tuesday after dropping 2.2% in the previous session, as traders became skeptical that President Trump’s new campaign to pressure Russia would significantly disrupt its oil exports. Trump increased military aid to Ukraine and warned of imposing 100% tariffs if a peace agreement was not reached within 50 days, which was perceived as a threat to impose secondary sanctions on major buyers of Russian oil, such as India and China. However, markets viewed the 50-day delay as a reduction in the risk of immediate supply disruptions. Nevertheless, China provided some support, with refinery activity reaching 15.2 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since September 2023.

Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.55%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.40%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.60%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.70%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar traded around $0.594, close to its lowest level in more than three weeks, due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened after consumer inflation in the US rose in June, prompting traders to reduce bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts in the coming months. The kiwi also reacted to better-than-expected second-quarter GDP data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

The Australian dollar strengthened to $0.653 on Wednesday, ending a three-day losing streak, as investors turned their attention to Thursday’s labor market data, which could provide new insight into the near-term policy outlook. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has recently taken a cautious stance, focusing on data, citing a more balanced inflation outlook and continued labor market strength. A strong jobs report could cast doubt on the 80% probability of a rate cut at next month’s meeting, as predicted by the market. Markets currently expect an increase of 20,000 jobs in June and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the conclusion of a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes key procurement commitments that will help the country avoid tougher tariffs. Indonesian goods will now be subject to tariffs of 19%, compared to the 32% he had previously threatened.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,243.76 −24.80 (−0.40%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,023.29 −436.36 (−0.98%)

DAX (DE40) 24,060.29 −100.35 (−0.42%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,938.32 −59.74 (−0.66%)

USD Index 98.64 +0.55 (+0.56%)

News feed for: 2025.07.16

  • UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.