InvestMacro

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 0.15%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.26%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.48% higher. The US stocks closed up on Monday, driven by gains in technology and AI company stocks like Nvidia (+2.1%), AMD (+1.2%), and Micron Technology (+4.2%). Shares of the video game company Electronic Arts (EA) jumped 4.5% following the announcement of a $55 billion stock buyback deal by a Saudi Arabian company. Market participants are closely monitoring the risk of a US government shutdown, which could delay the release of key economic data, including Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, increasing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut decisions.

The Canadian dollar recovered to the 1.39 level against the US dollar as a weaker USD following the August PCE data release and stronger domestic economic activity reduced both external and internal pressure on the Canadian currency. Statistics Canada revised July GDP up to 0.2% month-over-month and reported that economic activity was virtually flat in August, easing concerns about a Canadian economic recession and shifting market focus back to growth data. The Bank of Canada’s 25-basis-point rate cut to 2.5% on September 17 was widely anticipated. Therefore, it did not trigger unexpected capital outflows.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.13%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.16% higher.

WTI oil prices fell by more than 3% to $63.4 a barrel after Iraq’s Kurdish region resumed oil exports on Saturday following a two-and-a-half-year hiatus, and as OPEC+ plans another output increase this week, compounding oversupply fears. The agreement between Iraq’s federal government, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil companies operating in the region will initially allow 180,000-190,000 barrels per day to flow to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. This follows pressure from the US to get Kurdish oil back on international markets, with volumes eventually expected to rise to approximately 230,000 barrels per day. The return of Kurdish oil coincides with efforts by OPEC+ to increase output to further win market share. The group is reportedly likely to approve an increase in production of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November at its meeting this week.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) held firm around $3.20/MMBtu, a ten-week high, driven by lower production. Output in the US 48 states declined to 107.4 billion cubic feet per day in September from a record 108.3 billion cubic feet per day in August. Earlier supply surges led to a significant increase in inventories, which are 6% above the five-year average and 1% higher than last year.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.69%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.89%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 0.85%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, in line with market expectations. The Board noted that headline and trimmed mean inflation remained in the 2-3% range in the second quarter of 2025, though partial and volatile data suggest third-quarter inflation may be higher than anticipated. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains around domestic economic activity and inflation amid elevated global risks. The status of US tariffs and the retaliatory actions by other countries is becoming clearer, reducing the probability of extreme outcomes, but the expected evolution of trade is still anticipated to weigh on global growth.

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in September 2025, surpassing both the August reading of 50.5 and the market consensus expectations of 50.3. This was the highest reading since March. Production grew at the fastest pace in three months, and new export orders rose for the first time in six months.

The US stocks closed higher on Friday as investors reacted positively to a PCE inflation report that met expectations, yet factored in President Trump’s new wave of tariffs and softening consumer sentiment. The Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.65% (+0.09% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.59% (-0.16% for the week), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.44% higher (-0.34% for the week). The August PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed core inflation at 2.9% year-over-year, supporting expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at upcoming meetings. However, new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, heavy trucks, and furniture announced by President Trump added uncertainty, alongside fears of a potential government shutdown.

Last week, the Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% for the first time since March, citing a weak labor market. The Central Bank stated it would be prepared for another cut if the economy continues to face risks in the coming months. However, economists believe this month’s rate cut is not enough to eliminate the “slack” in Canada’s labor market. Many are confident the next cut should occur in October and should bring the rate to the lower end of the two percent target range to address Canada’s persistent economic weakness and low business investment, which have been exacerbated by the trade conflict.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.87% (+0.73% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.97% (+0.29% for the week), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) advanced 1.30% (+0.82% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.77% higher (+0.74% for the week).

The UK faces 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical products imported into the US. Late last week, Trump announced the 100% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, which will apply to companies unless they establish a manufacturing presence in the US. The EU and Japan are exempt from this new tariff threat as both countries have secured trade deals capping pharmaceutical duties at 15%. According to US trade data, pharmaceutical imports from the UK represented about 3.3% of total US drug imports in 2024.

WTI crude oil gained 1.1% on Friday to settle at $65.70 a barrel, marking its largest weekly gain in three months, up over 4%. The rally was fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure prompted Moscow to restrict diesel and gasoline exports, leading to supply deficits in several regions. Further support came from increasing pressure from the US and NATO, including threats of sanctions and calls for allies to cut Russian oil purchases.

Silver climbed over 1% on Monday to top $46.5 per ounce, hitting a new 14-year high amid a weakening dollar due to mounting risks of a US government shutdown. Friday’s PCE report showed stable inflationary pressures, strengthening expectations that the Fed has room for further rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in about a 90% chance of a rate cut next month and about 65% in December. Supply-demand imbalances added support, with the Silver Institute expecting a fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025 as demand outpaces supply by over 100 million ounces, leading to further stock depletion.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.61%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 1.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week down 0.13%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold its meeting tomorrow. Investors largely expect the RBA to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.60%, while a 25 basis point cut is widely anticipated at the November meeting. The RBA has already cut the rate three times in 2025. Despite the easing, Governor Michele Bullock continues to emphasize a cautious, data-dependent approach, reaffirming the bank’s commitment to the 2-3% inflation target. Second-quarter CPI data confirmed that inflation continues to ease, with headline inflation slowing from 2.4% to 2.1% and trimmed mean CPI falling from 2.9% to 2.7%. However, the August monthly CPI surprised some by rising slightly from 2.8% to 3.0%.

The New Zealand dollar remains pressured by expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets are mostly pricing in a quarter-point rate cut to 2.75% next week, with some even suggesting a slight possibility of a larger half-percent reduction. These expectations have been reinforced by a series of weak economic data, including a Q2 GDP contraction, though comments from new RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr, who stressed a commitment to low and stable inflation, have added uncertainty to the policy outlook.

The US indices fell for a third consecutive session on Thursday as investors weighed strong economic data against expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Dow Jones (US30) dropped by 0.38%, the S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.50%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.50% lower. Data showed the labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims falling to 218,000 for the week ending September 20. Furthermore, Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to an annual rate of 3.8%, supported by robust consumer spending and business investment. Market participants are now repricing the Fed’s next moves, with investor bets on an additional 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in October falling sharply. Technology stocks were hit the hardest, with Oracle tumbling 5% and Tesla dropping 4%. Meanwhile, Intel jumped 9% on news it approached Apple with an investment proposal. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index, for clues on the Central Bank’s path.

Mexico’s Central Bank, Banxico, cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.5% on Thursday. In its statement, the Central Bank noted that global economic activity expanded at a slower pace in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter. The bank pointed to persistent trade tensions, which are expected to cause an economic slowdown both globally and in the United States this year and in 2026. The Central Bank still projects headline inflation to reach its 3% target by the third quarter of 2026.

European equity markets declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.41%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.39% lower. The GfK Consumer Climate Index in Germany surprisingly improved slightly for October, though it remained in negative territory. Shares of German company Siemens Healthineers fell approximately 3.5% after the US Administration announced a new national security investigation into imports of robotics, medical devices, and industrial machinery. The European Commission plans to impose tariffs of 25% to 50% on Chinese steel and related products in the coming weeks to protect domestic producers, as the global overcapacity continues to pressure profits and constrain investment in the decarbonization of the European steel industry. Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach a record high this year, increasing by 4-9% to an estimated 115-120 million tonnes.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) surged over 3% to $2.94 per million British thermal units (mmBTU), reaching a one-week high and continuing a three-session rally. The EIA reported a storage build of 75 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending September 19, which matched expectations. Meanwhile, projections point to warmer-than-normal weather in early October. Feedgas flows to LNG facilities averaged 15.7 bcf/d in September, a slight reduction from August.

Silver (XAG/USD) climbed above $45 per ounce on Thursday, hitting a new 14-year high. Increased industrial demand and tight physical supply outweighed stronger-than-expected US macroeconomic data, which typically pushes up yields and the dollar. On the demand side, greater shipments of photovoltaic panels and electronics, where silver is difficult to substitute, are supporting near-term consumption. Regarding supply, most silver is produced as a byproduct of base metal mining and cannot be quickly ramped up; recent disruptions at smelting and processing facilities in key refining hubs have reduced refining availability, lowered delivery promptness, and increased near-term metal premiums.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by .27%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.59%, while the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) finished 0.09% higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.13%. Weak economic data in New Zealand prompted traders to price in greater policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 bp rate cut to 2.75% in October, with a 30% probability of a larger 50 bp cut. The ANZ-Roy Morgan survey, meanwhile, showed that New Zealand consumer confidence improved in September, suggesting that earlier rate cuts are starting to take effect. The New Zealand dollar lost over 1% for the week, marking its second consecutive weekly decline.

The offshore Yuan stabilized at 7.14 per dollar on Friday but still showed a significant weekly drop amid a strengthening US dollar. The dollar continued to gain as traders revised expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts following a series of better-than-expected economic releases. Adding further pressure on the Yuan was President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new round of punitive tariffs. Effective October 1, a 100% tariff will be placed on branded and proprietary pharmaceutical imports, except for companies that establish manufacturing capacity in the US.

The US stocks declined for a second consecutive day on Wednesday. The Dow Jones (US30) dropped 0.37%, the S&P 500 (US500) was down 0.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) fell by 0.31%. Individual stocks also saw mixed results. Nvidia dropped almost 1% despite announcing a $100 billion partnership with OpenAI. Oracle fell by 1.7%, and Micron Technology was down 2.9% even after reporting better-than-expected earnings. Conversely, Alibaba’s pledge to increase AI spending beyond its initial $50 billion commitment lifted its US-listed shares by 8.2%. Broader market sentiment was weighed down by overvaluation concerns after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation and labor market risks persist and warned that stock prices remain overvalued. On the economic front, new home sales unexpectedly rose in August, a bright spot amid fears of slowing growth and seasonal market weakness.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) fell to a four-month low, breaking the 1.39 mark against the US dollar. This was driven by weaker domestic data and a strengthening US dollar. Markets are repricing a more aggressive easing path for the Bank of Canada (BoC) after the Central Bank cut its policy rate and signaled the possibility of further easing, which reduced the appeal of CAD fixed-income assets. At the same time, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August was 1.9%, with core measures largely holding steady, giving the BoC room to ease and lowering the incentive for foreign capital to remain in the country.

European stock markets were mixed yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.57%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.24%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.04%. The DAX in Frankfurt saw a slight gain for the second day, primarily supported by defense stocks following comments from Donald Trump about Ukraine. Trump signaled a major policy shift on Tuesday, suggesting that Ukraine could retake all its territory from Russia. In other news, German business sentiment in September unexpectedly dropped sharply from August, according to IFO data. On the corporate front, defense companies like Renk (+7%), Hensoldt (+6.7%), and Rheinmetall (+3.5%) were notable standouts. Other top performers included Commerzbank (+4.4%), Zalando (+2.7%), and Siemens Energy (+2.3%).

WTI crude oil prices rose over 2% to the $65 per barrel mark on Wednesday, extending a 1.8% gain from the previous session. This was fueled by a drop in US crude inventories, which intensified supply concerns. Data from the EIA showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 0.607 million barrels, defying market expectations for a build. This came after talks to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan stalled as two major producers demanded debt repayment guarantees, keeping pipeline flows to Turkey halted. Geopolitical risks also continued to support prices, as NATO pledged a “resolute” response to Russia’s airspace incursions and Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and pipelines.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.47%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.37%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) finished the day down 0.92%.

Sentiment improved after reports that China is developing new regulations to boost competition in the food delivery sector, including capping service fees for restaurants, increasing subsidy transparency, and limiting platform fees. Alibaba rose nearly 10% after pledging over $53 billion in AI investments, surpassing its previous target, and releasing a new model. However, further gains were capped by concerns over Typhoon Ragasa, the world’s most powerful cyclone this year. Cathay Pacific announced it would cancel more than 500 regional flights, reposition aircraft, and gradually resume operations from Thursday into Friday.

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose to $0.659 on Thursday, recovering some of its losses from the previous session, as reduced bets on domestic policy easing outweighed a strengthening US dollar. Investors scaled back expectations for a near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after recent data showed Australia’s monthly CPI grew by 3.0% in August, the fastest pace in a year and slightly above expectations of 2.9%. Markets are now pricing in just a 6.5% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the RBA’s meeting next week, and a 38.2% chance of a cut at the following meeting in November.

Wall Street extended its record-breaking streak on Monday, fueled by optimism in megacap companies. The Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.14%, the S&P 500 (US500) rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq (US100) was up 0.55%. Nvidia shares surged 4% after announcing an investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, while Oracle jumped 6.3% following a leadership change and continued enthusiasm for AI. Apple shares increased by 4.3% on strong demand for the iPhone 17, and Tesla climbed 1.9%, reaching its 2025 high as investors anticipated new product launches and enhancements to its self-driving system.

The US President Donald Trump is set to announce this week that the deal to sell TikTok’s US operations to its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, complies with the 2024 law. Under the plan, ByteDance will hold less than a 20% stake, and TikTok US will be controlled by a group of existing American and international companies, as well as new investors not affiliated with ByteDance. Key investors include Oracle and Silver Lake, with Trump specifically highlighting US backers like Lachlan Murdoch, Larry Ellison, and Michael Dell. Trump will sign an executive order confirming the legality of the deal, which mandates storing US user data in Oracle’s cloud infrastructure.

European stock markets were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.48%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.30% lower, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) declined 1.17%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) had closed 0.11% higher. Carmakers faced losses after Porsche lowered its profit outlook for the year and delayed an EV launch due to weak demand, causing its shares to fall 7.2%. Volkswagen shares, a major Porsche shareholder, dropped 7.1%, and Stellantis fell more than 2%. Meanwhile, BBVA underperformed tech stocks, dropping 2.7% after raising its offer to acquire Banco Sabadell by 10% to €17 billion.

WTI crude oil prices were trading around $62 a barrel as traders weighed geopolitical risks against concerns over tariffs and slowing demand. Over the weekend, reports of Russian airstrikes on western Ukraine near the Polish border, airspace violations in Estonia, and a Russian military plane entering neutral Baltic airspace heightened fears of further regional escalation. Adding to the tension, the EU introduced its 19th package of sanctions against Russia on Friday, including a ban on LNG imports and restrictions on 118 additional shadow vessels. In the Middle East, geopolitical uncertainty also remained a focus as several countries officially recognized the state of Palestine ahead of a UN summit.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.99%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.43% higher.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar weakened to above the $0.658 level, giving up gains from the previous session as investors digested disappointing PMI data. Preliminary estimates showed the composite PMI fell to 52.1 in September from 55.5 in August. Market attention is now focused on the monthly CPI Index, due on Wednesday, which will clarify whether the inflation spike in July was caused by the end of electricity subsidies or broader price pressures. If inflation remains high or accelerates, expectations for an RBA rate cut could be pushed into next year.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.3% in August 2025 from 1.2% in the previous month, its highest reading since April and in line with market expectations. Food prices increased 2.0% year-over-year, slightly above the ten-month low of 1.9% in July. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1%, matching the gain from the previous four months.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate eased to 0.5% in August 2025, below market expectations and the 0.6% recorded in the previous month. The latest figure marked the lowest inflation level since January 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5% in August. Meanwhile, annual core inflation declined to 0.3% in August, the lowest since February 2021, compared to market prognoses of 0.4% and the July figure of 0.5%.

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.27%. The S&P500 Index (US500) gained 0.48%. The Nasdaq (US100) technology Index closed higher by 0.94%. All three major Wall Street indices closed at record highs on Thursday. Investors welcomed the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut and the prospect of two additional reductions, interpreting the move as a shift toward supporting growth rather than strictly controlling inflation. Technology stocks led the rally, with Intel shares soaring more than 22% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in a joint chip development, and Nvidia shares gained 3.5%. Economically, initial jobless claims fell sharply to 231,000 from a four-year high, easing some concerns about labor market weakness.

The Mexican peso fell to 18.35 per US dollar, retreating from its strongest level since July 2024 at 18.29. In Mexico, headline inflation in August was 3.57% and core inflation was around 4.23%, which is relatively subdued but still keeps Banxico cautious, limiting aggressive rate cuts. Meanwhile, growth forecasts have softened, industrial production has shown a contraction, and the outlook for private spending has cooled, which reduces demand for peso-denominated assets.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.35%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up 0.87%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.32%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively on Thursday at 0.21%. The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4%, with two members voting for a 25-basis-point cut to 3.75%. The MPC also voted 7-2 to slow quantitative tightening, reducing gold holdings by £70 billion over the next year to £488 billion. Policymakers noted progress in disinflation after past shocks, supported by a restrictive policy, although inflation remains above the target. The CPI was 3.8% in August, and is expected to rise slightly in September before returning to the 2% level. Looking ahead, the committee emphasized the need for a gradual, data-driven approach without a predetermined path for rate cuts, maintaining flexibility to respond to future developments.

In September 2025, Norges Bank reduced its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated that it would continue to lower rates next year if the economy develops as anticipated. This was the second rate cut in the last five years, following a brief pause in August. The bank’s committee noted that the current policy is restrictive, helping to cool the economy and reduce inflation.

US natural gas prices fell by more than 3% to below $2.99/MMBtu after the EIA reported a larger-than-expected increase in storage inventories. In the week leading up to September 12, companies injected 90 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, exceeding forecasts of 81 billion cubic feet, compared to 56 billion cubic feet a year earlier and a five-year average of 74 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.15%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.44%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.35%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.83% yesterday.

In September 2025, the Bank of Japan left its key short-term rate unchanged at 0.5%, keeping borrowing costs at their highest level since 2008 and meeting market expectations. The decision, made by a 7-2 vote, came amid uncertainty about Japan’s political outlook and the impact of US tariffs. It followed the US Fed’s rate cut earlier this week: the first since December. During Friday’s meeting, the Bank of Japan announced that it would begin selling its holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs). The board noted that the Japanese economy has recovered at a moderate pace despite some weaknesses. Private consumption remained robust due to improved employment and income conditions. Inflation expectations rose moderately, with the core CPI projected to increase gradually.

The New Zealand dollar fluctuated around $0.598 on Friday after falling more than 1% in the previous session to a nearly two-week low. The drop was fueled by a sharper-than-expected economic downturn, which increased bets on further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter, which was worse than the forecasted 0.3% decline. This followed a revised growth of 0.9% in the previous quarter. The contraction was primarily due to weakness in the construction and manufacturing sectors, as well as a decline in exports. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with the probability of a more significant 50-basis-point reduction estimated at around 25%. They also anticipate an additional 71 basis points of easing, up from 50 basis points previously. Additionally, data released today indicated that New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed to NZ$1.2 billion in August, compared to NZ$2.3 billion in the same month last year. However, it still exceeded market expectations of NZ$0.7 billion.

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.57%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.10%. The Nasdaq (US100) Technology Index closed lower by 0.33%. US stocks closed mixed as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s outlook following an expected 25-basis-point rate cut. The median FOMC prognosis suggests two more rate cuts this year, but strong growth, a low unemployment rate, and an upward revision of core inflation have raised doubts about the pace of easing in 2026. Chairman Powell also showed caution, refraining from expressing confidence in further rate cuts. The Fed expects to cut rates by another 50 basis points by the end of 2025 and by a quarter-point in 2026, which is slightly more than anticipated in June. GDP growth expectations were revised upward for 2025 (1.6% vs 1.4% in the Jun prognosis), 2026 (1.8% vs 1.6%), and 2027 (1.9% vs 1.8%). PCE inflation this year is projected at 3%, the same as in June, but expectations for 2026 were revised upward (2.6% vs 2.4%). The core PCE inflation expectations also remained at 3.1% for 2025 but were revised upward for 2026 to 2.6% from 2.4%. The unemployment rate is still expected to be 4.5% for 2025, but the projections for next year were revised downward to 4.4% from 4.5%. Meanwhile, technology stocks were under pressure, with shares of Avidia and Broadcom falling by 2.5% and 3.5% amid reports of Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chip purchases.

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.375 per US dollar after the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% and signaled that the easing campaign would continue. The move reflected a sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity, including a 1.6% contraction in Q2 GDP and a 27% drop in exports. The deteriorating labor market situation strengthened the case for policy easing: in August, net job losses and the unemployment rate rose to 7.1%, which reduced wage pressures and took the edge off inflation.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.40%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) declined by 0.24%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively at 0.14%. The Eurozone’s consumer price inflation for August 2025 was revised downward to 2.0% from a preliminary 2.1%, which is in line with the ECB’s target. Top gainers included Continental (+1.9%), Adidas (+1.7%), Bayer (+1.6%), and Infineon Technologies (+1.3%). In contrast, Commerzbank and Siemens Energy suffered the biggest losses, falling by 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $64 per barrel on Wednesday. European officials reported plans to accelerate the reduction of Russian fossil fuel imports and called for more decisive measures to increase economic pressure on Moscow. Additionally, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 9.3 million barrels last week, the largest drop in three months.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.25%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.63%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.78%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.67%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, following the US Fed, lowered borrowing costs to 4.5%, the lowest since November 2022. Chief Executive Eddie Yue stated that the move should support the real estate market and the broader economy.

The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% at its September 2025 policy meeting. Since last September, the Central Bank has lowered rates by 150 basis points, bringing the key rate to its lowest level since October 2022. Recent data showed that in Q2, GDP grew by 5.12% y/y, the fastest pace in two years, and annual inflation in August fell to 2.31%. Earlier this week, the government unveiled a stimulus package worth around $1 billion for Q4 to accelerate GDP growth.

The Australian dollar traded around $0.665 on Thursday. Data showed that net employment in August fell by 5,400 against projections of a 21,500 increase, driven by a sharp reduction of 40,900 full-time jobs. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Despite the weak data, markets imply only a 20% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its September 30 meeting, with expectations for November rising to 70% as inflation remains above target and policymakers show caution.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.592 after weaker-than-expected GDP data spurred bets on interest rate cuts. New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9%, worse than the expected contraction of 0.3%. Markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut to 2.75% at the Reserve Bank’s October meeting, with a 24% chance of a more significant half-percent cut.