InvestMacro

The Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 1.10% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up by 1.33%. Major Wall Street indices rallied on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs, after July inflation data largely met expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, easing fears of rising prices amid ongoing trade tensions. This bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Traders are pricing in an approximately 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Investor sentiment was further boosted by the largest inflow into US stocks in two years and optimism ahead of the Jackson Hole Fed meeting later this month.

European stock markets traded with mixed performance yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.23%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.71%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.02%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.20%. The ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator for Germany declined for the first time in four months to 34.7 in August 2025, down from 52.7 in July, which was its highest reading since 2022, and below expectations of 40. The significant drop in the August 2025 ZEW indicator was partly due to the poor performance of the German economy in the second quarter of 2025.

WTI oil prices fell to $63.5 a barrel on Tuesday, close to the two-month low of $62.77 reached the previous week, as President Trump extended the US-China tariff truce for 90 days and investors awaited US-Russia talks on Ukraine. Trump downplayed hopes of a breakthrough, calling the meeting a chance to “test the waters” for peace, while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected any talks of ceding territory. Separately, OPEC projected a tighter oil market for 2026, citing higher demand and slowing non-OPEC production growth. Attention will turn to the monthly reports from the US Department of Energy and the IEA for market insights.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $2.9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since November 2024, pressured by near-record output, high storage levels, and expectations for milder weather. August production in the lower 48 states averaged 108.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), up from the record July output of 107.9 Bcf/d. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, the high supply has allowed for above-average injections into storage, and stockpiles are about 6% above the seasonal norm and are expected to continue rising.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.41%.

The Australian dollar weakened to $0.652 against the US dollar on Wednesday, giving up the previous session’s gains after a dovish rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to weigh on the currency. On Tuesday, the central bank cut its official cash rate as expected and signaled that further easing may be needed to meet its inflation and employment goals amid a loss of economic momentum. It also lowered its 2025 GDP expectations to 1.7% from 2.1%, citing weak household demand at the start of the year that is unlikely to recover. Markets are now implying a slim 34% chance of another rate cut in September.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47% on Friday (weekly gain +1.03%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.78% (weekly gain of +1.88%), while the Nasdaq (US100) finished the day 0.95% higher (weekly gain of +2.72%). Tech stocks led the rally, with Apple rising by 4.2% after announcing a $600 billion investment plan, which boosted the Nasdaq. Investor optimism was fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following President Trump’s nomination of Steven Mnuchin to the Fed Board, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy despite ongoing concerns about new tariffs on imports from several countries. Tesla shares rose by 2.3% despite the dissolution of its Dojo team, and Intel was up 0.9% after its CEO received board support following calls for his resignation from Trump.

Nvidia and AMD have agreed to a deal with the US government to share 15% of the revenue from certain chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips. This unprecedented agreement reflects the White House’s strategic use of trade exceptions amid ongoing tariff pressure. President Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports unless companies “build in the United States” adds urgency to such agreements.

The Canadian dollar fell below $1.37 against the US dollar as weaker domestic employment data and looming trade factors undermined previous gains. A Statistics Canada report showing the country lost 41,000 jobs in July, far worse than the 13,500 gain analysts predicted, and a static unemployment rate of 6.9% heightened concerns about domestic demand and fueled expectations for a more dovish Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, President Trump’s decision to implement 35% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and impending duties on auto parts have added to the pressure on the trade-exposed Canadian economy.

European stock markets were mixed on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.12% (weekly gain +2.72%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.44% (weekly gain +2.11%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.91% (weekly gain +4.55%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.06% (weekly gain +0.30%). European stocks ended the week with a strong rally, posting a sharp rise in the first week of August as markets continued to assess the outlook for the European economy amid uncertainty over US tariff levels and the ECB’s response. Banks continued to rise sharply, with BBVA, BNP Paribas, and UniCredit all gaining more than 2%. Siemens was up 2.2% after a volatile week, and Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis each added more than 2%, setting the pace for automakers. On the other hand, Rheinmetall lost 1.5% on reports that the US and Russia might agree on a ceasefire in Ukraine.

WTI crude oil prices were flat on Friday at $63.9 per barrel, holding near a two-month low and showing a weekly drop of more than 5% amid growing fears of higher US tariffs and a possible meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. The recently implemented US tariffs, which took effect on Thursday, have intensified concerns about slowing economic growth and a potential decline in demand for crude oil. Meanwhile, news of a possible Trump-Putin summit raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, which could ease sanctions on Russia. However, analysts remain cautious, stressing that a breakthrough is unlikely as Putin is expected to demand territorial concessions while the US pushes for a ceasefire.

Silver fell to $38 per ounce on Monday, partially reversing last week’s gains, as investors took profits ahead of key US inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Markets are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut in September amid signs of a weakening labor market, with a possible subsequent move in December also being priced in. Fed official Michelle Bowman stated on Saturday that the latest weak jobs report reinforces her concerns about labor market volatility and strengthens her view that three rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.

Asian markets were mostly higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 4.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.75%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.68%.

In July 2025, consumer prices in China were unchanged year-on-year, defying market expectations for a 0.1% decline and following a 0.1% increase in the prior month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose to 0.8% y/y, the highest level in 17 months, after a 0.7% increase in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4% in July, slightly above the 0.3% expectations and reversing a 0.1% decrease in June. This was the highest monthly inflation figure since January, partly attributed to recent extreme weather conditions, including heavy rainfall.

On Monday, the Australian dollar paused near the $0.652 mark as investors cautiously awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision due on Tuesday. Markets broadly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.60% at the August meeting, following lower-than-expected second-quarter inflation and a rise in unemployment to a three-and-a-half-year high. This comes after the RBA’s unexpected decision in July to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, citing a more balanced assessment of inflation risks and persistent labor market resilience.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.51%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.08%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index (US100) closed higher by 0.35%. The US indices came under pressure on Thursday, as early gains faded amid renewed trade tensions. The Nasdaq 100 posted a modest gain, initially supported by semiconductor stocks after Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported microchips, excluding US manufacturers. However, sentiment quickly deteriorated due to broader trade concerns. Investors also reacted to reports that Fed Governor Christopher Waller may be Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve, fueling expectations of a rate cut in September.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.6 per US dollar after Banxico cut the overnight rate to 7.75%, reducing some of the carry appeal that had recently supported the currency. The move followed a drop in annual inflation from 4.51% to 3.51% and somewhat stronger economic growth in Q2. However, the Central Bank maintained a cautious tone, citing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks as potential inflation triggers via peso depreciation, or as threats to growth momentum. Meanwhile, Washington imposed new tariffs (25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from Mexico, with additional tariffs on auto parts set to take effect next week),  posing further risks to export revenue and industrial output.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 1.12%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.97%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.06%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) declined by 0.69%.

On Thursday, WTI crude oil prices fell to $63.90 per barrel, marking a sixth consecutive day of losses, as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the war in Ukraine weighed on prices. The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet US President Donald Trump in the coming days, their first summit since 2021, raising hopes for de-escalation. Meanwhile, Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on Indian goods over continued imports of Russian oil and signaled the possibility of further tariffs against China. Saudi Arabia also raised prices for September oil deliveries to Asian buyers for the second month in a row, citing tight supply and strong demand.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.65%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.31%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.69%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down 0.14%.

Japan’s services PMI rose to 45.2 in July 2025 from 45.0 in June, the highest reading since February and the third consecutive monthly increase, though it came in slightly below the market expectation of 45.5. Meanwhile, the Economic Outlook Index climbed to a six-month high of 47.3 from 45.9 in June, supported by signs of an economic rebound, including expectations of stronger consumer demand, despite ongoing concerns about cost pressures and US trade policy uncertainty.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar held steady at USD 0.596, near a one-week high, supported by weakness in the US dollar. The greenback remained under pressure amid rising odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and concerns about the impact of new tariffs on the US economy. The kiwi also drew support from still-strong trade data out of China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, which showed July export growth exceeded expectations, offering some relief amid the fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington. However, domestic sentiment was dampened by recent labor market data indicating ongoing weakness, reinforcing expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may lower interest rates at its meeting later this month.

As of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.18%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.73%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up by 1.21%. The US stocks rose as investors reacted to strong corporate earnings and a major announcement from Apple, which pledged to invest an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing. Despite positive earnings reports from companies like Disney and Uber, some stocks, such as AMD, Snap, and Super Micro Computer, plunged due to disappointing results. Investor sentiment was supported by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, with odds climbing to over 93% following soft labor market data. However, trade tensions flared again after President Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods due to continued imports of Russian oil, adding uncertainty.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended 0.24% higher. The Frankfurt DAX closed higher at 23,924, marking its third consecutive session of gains as traders weighed corporate earnings and looming US tariffs. President Trump is expected to impose broad tariffs on August 7 against countries that have not concluded trade deals. While the EU and US are finalizing their agreement, 15% tariffs on EU goods will take effect tomorrow, with Trump warning of a possible increase to 35% if the promised European investments are not fulfilled. He also confirmed plans to introduce tariffs on pharmaceutical imports “within the next week or so.”

WTI crude oil prices reversed earlier gains on Wednesday and fell by 1.2% to $64.30 per barrel, marking the fifth consecutive decline and hitting a new six-week low. Prices initially rose on supply concerns following President Trump’s decree imposing 25% tariffs on Indian goods due to Russian oil imports. Temporary support also came from a larger-than-expected US crude inventory draw of 3 million barrels. However, gains were dampened after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that an announcement regarding potential sanctions against Russia could come later in the day, adding uncertainty to the market.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) climbed by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dipped by 0.07%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) edged up 0.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed with a solid 0.84% gain.

The Australian dollar strengthened to USD 0.648 on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, as rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, with little data expected this week, the Aussie may face headwinds as markets fully price in a 25 bp RBA rate cut to 3.60% on August 12.

The New Zealand dollar rose to USD 0.592 on Wednesday, rebounding from multi-week lows. However, the Kiwi’s upside may be limited by weaker-than-expected local employment data. New Zealand’s unemployment rate in Q2 rose to nearly a five-year high of 5.2%, slightly below expectations of 5.3%. This strengthened expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut rates at its upcoming August meeting. Markets currently price in a 90% chance of a 25 bp cut, with further easing to 2.75% expected by year-end or early next year. Additional concern comes from the Trump administration’s imposition of 15% tariffs on New Zealand exports starting August 7, which could place further pressure on the export-driven economy.

The offshore yuan remained stable around 7.18 per dollar on Thursday as investors digested the latest trade data. China’s trade surplus in July 2025 rose to $98.24 billion from $85.27 billion a year earlier. Export growth reached a three-month high of 7.2% year-over-year, significantly beating market expectations of 5.4%, mainly due to a temporary easing in tariff pressures ahead of the looming August deadline. Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly rose to an annual high, increasing 4.1% year-over-year, defying expectations for a 1.0% decline. In light of recent developments tied to a trade truce, President Donald Trump stated that the US and China are “very close” to extending the agreement set to expire on August 12.

As of Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.49%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) ended lower by 0.65%. The US stocks closed lower on Tuesday as investors grappled with disappointing economic data, escalating trade tensions, and mixed corporate earnings. Stagflation concerns resurfaced after the ISM Services Index showed activity stalled in July. Meanwhile, President Trump’s threats to impose steep tariffs of up to 250% on pharmaceutical imports, along with potential tariffs on semiconductors, heightened market anxiety amid ongoing trade uncertainty with India, Switzerland, and China. On the earnings front, Palantir rose by 7.8% after raising its revenue expectations, while Pfizer gained 5.2% following a strong quarterly report.

In June 2025, Canada’s trade deficit widened to CAD 5.9 billion (seasonally adjusted), up from the revised figure of CAD 5.5 billion in the previous month. Imports increased by 1.4% from a six-month low to CAD 67.6 billion, marking the first increase in four months. Exports to the US, subject to sectoral and country-specific tariffs, rose 3.1% from the previous month but remained 12.5% lower year-over-year.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.14%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.16%. The DAX in Frankfurt gave up early gains and closed 0.4% higher on Tuesday as investors continued to monitor earnings season and trade developments, with US tariffs set to take effect on August 7. Under the US-EU deal, most EU exporters will face a unified 15% US tariff — half the 30% Trump had previously threatened. In return, the EU pledged to lower its own tariffs on certain goods and boost energy imports from the US by $750 billion over the remaining three and a half years of Trump’s presidency. However, Trump warned he could impose 35% tariffs on the EU if Brussels fails to meet its $600 billion investment commitment in US infrastructure.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $65 per barrel on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak and rebounding from a five-week low amid supply disruption concerns. Investors assessed potential supply interruptions, as India may reduce imports of Russian oil in response to President Trump’s tariff threats over continued purchases. Trump warned of raising tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Additional support for bulls came from API data showing a 4.2 million barrel drop in US crude inventories last week, exceeding market expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decline and signaling stronger-than-expected demand.

Silver held near $37.8 per ounce on Wednesday after rising for three straight sessions, supported by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The latest ISM Services PMI for July pointed to sluggish growth, a decline in employment, and persistent price pressures, reinforcing signs of labor market cooling after last week’s weaker-than-expected payroll report. Markets are now pricing in two Fed rate cuts by year-end, with the first potentially in September.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.64%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.94%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.68%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a strong performance, up 1.23%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), at its August meeting, held the key repo rate steady at 5.50%, maintaining a neutral stance after cutting the rate by 50 basis points in June, more than usual and in line with expectations. The rate remains at its lowest level since August 2022. The decision came amid easing inflation and the recent US announcement of 25% tariffs on Indian imports. On the economic outlook, the RBI maintained its GDP growth expectations at 6.5% for the 2025/26 fiscal year and 6.6% for the following year. Meanwhile, inflation expectations were revised downward to 3.1% from 3.7%, remaining within the RBI’s target range of 2-6%.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.19% in July 2025 from 3.57% in June, marking the lowest level in three months. Meanwhile, core inflation, excluding volatile items, slowed to 3.30% in July from 3.46% in June, also a three-month low. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.11%, down from a 0.48% increase in the previous period.

In June 2025, the unemployment rate in New Zealand rose to 5.2%, which is slightly higher than the previous figure of 5.1% and in line with market expectations. The number of unemployed increased to 158,000 people compared to 156,000 in March, representing an annual increase of 16,000 people, or 11.1%. This data indicates growing slack in the labor market, putting pressure on policymakers as economic dynamics continue to weaken.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.34% by the end of Monday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.47%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 1.95% higher. The indexes’ growth was fueled by renewed hopes for a September Fed rate cut following a weak July employment report and a downward revision of data from previous months. In response, President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and stated he would name a replacement this week. Meanwhile, updated tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% added additional pressure, although Switzerland and the EU signaled an openness to negotiations. Mega-cap tech stocks led the gains as traders focused on strong earnings, with 82% of S&P 500 companies reporting better-than-expected results so far. Palantir jumped 4.2% ahead of its post-market earnings release, Nvidia was up 3.5%, and Amazon gained 1.5%.

European stock markets were mostly higher yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 1.42%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.14%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.84%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.66% higher on Monday. The FTSE 100’s Monday gains were driven by a sharp rise in British bank stocks after a favorable Supreme Court ruling on a motor finance case. Shares of Lloyds Banking Group surged over 8% to their highest level since 2015, while Barclays climbed 1.5%. HSBC and Standard Chartered also saw gains. The ruling overturned a lower court decision, easing fears of massive compensation payouts related to mis-selling car loans. The Financial Conduct Authority is now estimating a potential redress amount of £9 billion, significantly lower than earlier market fears of up to £30 billion. The ratings agency RBC upgraded Lloyds, the largest player in the UK car finance market, calling the court decision an “event that removes significant pressure on the stock.” BP shares also rose nearly 2% ahead of its earnings report as investors anticipate new insights into the company’s return to traditional energy sources.

The Swiss franc weakened to 0.81 against the US dollar as concerns about newly announced US tariffs overshadowed modest Swiss inflation growth. On August 1st, the Trump administration announced 39% tariffs on Swiss exports, higher than the 31% tariffs announced in April, with the measures taking effect on August 7th. If the tariffs remain in place, they are expected to intensify disinflationary pressure in Switzerland. Meanwhile, inflation in July grew slightly to 0.2% year-over-year, which was higher than the 0.1% expectation but still near zero. The subdued price growth, combined with rising external risks, suggests that the Swiss National Bank may resort to further negative interest rate cuts. The Swiss Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.8 in July from 49.6 in June, signaling a deeper downturn in the sector.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $66.3 per barrel on Monday as traders digested the OPEC+ decision to increase production and growing geopolitical uncertainty. The group confirmed a widely anticipated production increase of 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, completing the phased unwinding of voluntary cuts enacted in 2023. While the move was expected, it heightened expectations that global oil supply could outpace demand this year, potentially leading to a buildup in inventories. Traders are also monitoring potential US actions on Russian oil flows. President Trump has threatened to impose additional sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, specifically targeting India, with possible measures taking effect as early as August 8th.

The US natural gas prices fell below the $3/ 3/MMBtu mark, nearing a low not seen since November 2024, as production outpaces demand. According to LSEG, average output in the Lower 48 states reached 107.5 billion cubic feet per day in July, surpassing June’s record of 106.4 billion cubic feet per day. As a result, the latest EIA data showed a larger-than-expected injection into storage of 48 billion cubic feet for the week ending July 25th, exceeding forecasts of 38 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.25%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.52%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.92%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) had a positive result of 0.02% yesterday.

Hong Kong stocks dropped to 24,711 on Tuesday morning, reversing the previous session’s gains. Investors cautiously awaited China’s July trade data and upcoming inflation figures amid concerns over rising trade barriers and weak domestic demand. Consumer stocks fell while real estate, financial, and tech stocks saw modest gains. Further losses were contained by an overnight rally on Wall Street amid some bargain hunting after Friday’s decline and increased bets on a September rate cut. Meanwhile, according to a private survey, China’s services activity grew at its fastest pace in 14 months in July.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 1.23% (-3.02% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 1.60% (-2.50% for the week), and the Nasdaq Tech Index (US100) closed down by 1.96% (-2.48% for the week). The US stocks fell on Friday as investors reacted to weak July employment data and a new round of tariffs announced by President Trump. Non-farm payrolls increased by just 73,000 in July, well below expectations, and sharp downward revisions to previous months’ data pointed to deeper labor market weakness. Treasury yields fell, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September rose above 80%. Sentiment also soured after the US imposed new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from key partners, including Canada, India, and Taiwan. On the corporate front, Amazon dropped nearly 8% due to disappointing cloud forecasts, dragging the broader market, while Apple fell 2.9% despite strong results. Exxon (-1.8%) and Chevron (-0.1%) beat expectations, Eli Lilly rose by 3% on hopes of drug coverage, while Moderna plunged 6.6% amid renewed vaccine concerns.

The Mexican peso fell to a one-month low, breaking through 18.80 per USD, despite broad dollar weakness, primarily reflecting domestic factors and tariff concerns weighing on the currency. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July remained at 49.1 for the thirteenth consecutive month, while the business confidence index stayed below the 49.4 threshold, indicating falling export demand and reduced capital expenditures.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.38 per USD, rebounding from a two-month low as the dollar weakened following the weak US non-farm payroll report showing just 73,000 new jobs vs. 110,000 expected, and a net downward revision of 258,000 positions. This boosted bets on a Fed rate cut in September. At the same time, Canada’s economy showed surprising resilience: after a 0.1% GDP contraction in May, a 0.1% increase is expected in June, with manufacturing output rising by 0.7%. This supports the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold rates steady at 2.75%, standing in sharp contrast to the Fed’s more dovish stance. Although President Trump’s surprise announcement of 35% tariffs briefly shook markets, Canadian exemptions under USMCA effectively cap export taxes at around 5%, softening any major impact on cross-border trade flows.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 2.66% (weekly: -4.09%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.91% (weekly: -4.77%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 1.88% (weekly: -1.68%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Friday 0.70% (weekly: -0.57%). European equities closed sharply lower on Friday, following a steep global market sell-off as the US government expanded the range of imports subject to tariffs. While the base tariff remained at 10%, rates were sharply increased for India (25%), Canada (35%), and Switzerland (39%). Overall, the average US tariff rate will rise to 15%, compared to roughly 2% in 2024. Additionally, banks and industrial giants fell sharply following the pessimistic US labor report: Siemens, Intesa Sanpaolo, ING, BNP Paribas, and Schneider dropped more than 4%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.7% to $67.3 per barrel on Friday amid reports that OPEC and its allies may soon agree to raise output. Market sentiment also deteriorated following newly signed tariffs by President Trump on imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan, which will take effect on August 7.

Silver hovered around $37 per ounce on Monday after rising nearly 1% in the previous session, supported by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut following the weak July jobs report. A falling dollar and lower Treasury yields further boosted silver’s appeal.

Asian markets mostly declined last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 1.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 3.74%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a slight weekly loss of 0.06%.

On Monday, the offshore yuan held its recent gains at 7.19 per USD after the People’s Bank of China announced the formation of a new committee on macroprudential and financial stability. The central bank reaffirmed its accommodative stance, pledging to manage key financial risks and maintain ample liquidity in H2 with an “appropriately loose” monetary policy. Lending to strategic sectors such as technology and green development has surged, reflecting policy priorities. Meanwhile, investors are watching the key October policy plenum, where officials are expected to present countermeasures to persistent deflationary pressure, excess industrial capacity, and the ongoing real estate downturn. Recent signals from the Politburo point to more stimulus through bond issuance and demand-boosting measures.