InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.06%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.71%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.76% yesterday. On Tuesday, stock indices posted strong gains as investors welcomed positive quarterly results from a number of major corporations, including Wall Street banks. At the same time, weaker-than-expected US retail sales data raised the stakes for weakening inflation in the country, which in turn should prompt the Federal Reserve to take a less hawkish stance in the coming months. There is a high probability that the US Fed will end its tightening cycle as early as its July meeting.

Morgan Stanley (MS) jumped by 6% after second-quarter results beat both top and bottom lines forecasts. Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) topped the growth leaderboard, up more than 12% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Quarterly results from companies like Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX) are expected today. Tesla’s quarterly results will likely focus on margins following the electric carmaker’s recent price cuts, while Netflix’s quarterly results will focus investor attention on subscriber growth.

Canada’s inflation rate fell to 2.8% from 3.4% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) fell from 3.7% to 3.2% y/y. The sharp decline in inflationary pressures precludes further policy tightening by the Bank of Canada.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) increased by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.38% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed positive by 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.64%.

ECB officials are becoming less hawkish in their statements. If earlier almost all officials in one voice said about at least two rate hikes of 0.25% at each of them, now the tone of speech has changed, and now some politicians expect one rate hike of 0.25%, and the September decision will depend on incoming data. Apparently, the decline in global inflation, along with weak Eurozone GDP reports, made the officials reconsider their plans for further policy tightening.

Gold rose sharply yesterday after US retail sales rose less than expected in June, putting pressure on US Treasury yields and the US dollar. The US dollar’s overreaction to lower inflation and retail sales suggests that the market is in no mood to buy the dollar amid a growing view that the Fed is close to ending its tightening cycle. The market expects rate cuts from around mid-2024, with nearly five rate cuts by the end of next year. For gold and silver, this is a fundamental strengthening factor for the coming months.

Crude oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday after Chinese officials said the government would soon implement more pro-consumption policies, as data this week showed the country’s economy barely grew in the second quarter.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 1.16% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.21%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Tuesday positive by 0.42%.

New Zealand’s inflation rate fell from 6.7% to 6% on an annualized basis. Over the last quarter, the consumer price index posted a 1.1% increase, the lowest since the first quarter of 2021. The RBNZ said in its monetary policy review last week that it expects core inflation to fall, although it did not comment on when this might happen. Nevertheless, there will be additional inflationary pressures in the next quarter as the government’s fuel tax and public transport subsidy exemptions expire on July 1.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,554.98 +32.19 (+0.71%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,951.93 +366.58 (+1.06%)

DAX (DE40)  16,125.49 +56.84 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,453.69 +47.27 (+0.64%)

USD Index  100.04 +0.10 (+0.10%)

• – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By RoboForex.com

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.39%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.93%.

The Business Activity Index of New York State companies fell slightly in July, despite rising orders and easing inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s General Business Conditions Index fell by 1.1 to 5.5 points. A value above zero indicates growth. The median forecast in a survey of economists suggested a drop of 3.5.

Investors are awaiting quarterly results from Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) today. Sentiment toward the biggest banks strengthened last week after JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported better-than-expected quarterly results, though Citi was among those whose earnings fell short of analysts’ expectations. Tesla (TSLA ) is up more than 3% after starting production of its Cybertruck in Texas, with the electric vehicle maker expected to ship about 2,000 units this year. Tesla’s quarterly report is expected this Wednesday. Ford Motor (F) shares, meanwhile, fell more than -5% after the F-150 Lightning suffered a $10,000 price cut amid increased competition from Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) and Tesla Cybertruck. Shares of telecom giant AT&T (T) fell by -6% after banks Citi and JPMorgan downgraded them to “neutral” from “buy” amid concerns that the company and others will have to incur significant costs to remove old copper cables used for telephony and other related purposes, which some say could pose an environmental hazard.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.12% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed at its opening price, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.38%. Sentiment in Europe was affected by data indicating a significant slowdown in economic growth in China, which is the main export market for major European companies. A number of speeches by ECB officials are expected this week. The comments will show what the central bank is thinking ahead of its next policy-setting meeting later this month.

Asian markets were mostly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.09% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was not trading yesterday due to Typhoon Talim, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Monday negative 0.06%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell sharply on Tuesday, catching up with the losses of its Asian peers after data showed a significant slowdown in China’s economic growth in the second quarter. Shares of major technology companies also suffered losses after strong gains last week. Baidu Inc (BIDU), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA), and Tencent Holdings Ltd – China’s BAT trio – lost between 1.8% and 3% drop. The weak economic data also raised the likelihood of additional stimulus measures from Beijing. There is information that the People’s Bank of China (RBA) may cut interest rates further and reduce its bank reserve requirements in the third quarter in an attempt to boost growth.

The RBA’s June monetary policy report showed that Australia’s central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged because the policy was clearly restrictive, and there was a risk that a contraction in household finances could lead to a sharp downturn and higher unemployment. However, the bank maintained a warning that some tightening may be needed to contain inflation. The board considered raising the money rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% but then decided to pause

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,522.79 +17.37 (+0.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,585.35 +76.32 (+0.22%)

DAX (DE40)  16,068.65 −36.42 (−0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,406.42 −28.15 (−0.38%)

USD Index  99.89 −0.02 (−0.02%)

• – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By JustMarkets

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.33% (+2.38% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.10% (+2.53% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.18% (+3.43% for the week) on Friday.

Rising interest rates, which surprised many US banks, proved to be a boon for the nation’s largest banks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted record profits, and some of its major competitors reported better-than-expected loan income. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose by 0.6%, while Wells Fargo (WFC) fell by 0.3%. Both major banks reported higher quarterly earnings but said they set aside more funds to cover expected losses on commercial real estate loans. Friday’s quarterly reports unofficially opened the second quarter in the US. According to Refintiiv, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings for the quarter to be down by 8.1% compared with a year ago result, but most companies are expected to beat expectations.

The US consumer sentiment jumped to a near two-year high. The University of Michigan’s preliminary index rose by 8.2 points to 72.6, the highest level since September 2021. The index beat all forecasts. The surge in sentiment was largely attributed to a continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in the labor market. Friday’s report also showed that consumers expect low unemployment over the next year, and most believe their incomes will rise by at least as much as inflation rises. While longer-term inflation expectations appear reasonable, minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed that some officials remain concerned that these expectations may become unreasonable, especially in light of stronger-than-expected consumer demand and a robust labor market.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday, but all closed in positive territory at the end of the week. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.22% (+3.33% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.06% on Friday (+4.12% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 0.43% (+2.47% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.08% (+2.45% for the week).

US Treasury bond yields have fallen sharply over the past week as traders raised bets that the US Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening program is coming to an end. Rate-sensitive UST 2 yields are down 50 basis points since last Thursday, while UST 10 yields are down about 30 basis points, and UST 30 yields are down about 18 basis points over the same time period. Since gold and silver have an inverse correlation to US government bond yields, there is a high probability of continued uptrends in the precious metals.

Despite a slight decline in oil prices on Friday, oil prices posted their third consecutive weekly gain last week, and the potential for further gains remains as weakening inflation, plans to replenish the US strategic reserve, supply cuts, and production disruptions in some OPEC countries support black gold prices.

Asian markets were mostly on the rise last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was little changed for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.20%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 3.55%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 3.70%.

Chinese indices fell sharply on Monday after data showed a significant slowdown in the country’s economic growth in the second quarter. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in the second quarter. The figure was above expectations of 0.5% growth but significantly weaker than the 2.2% jump recorded in the first quarter. The annualized GDP figure fell short of expectations, showing growth of 6.5% vs. the expected 7.3%. China’s manufacturing sector also came under pressure due to sluggish overseas demand for Chinese exports amid deteriorating economic conditions globally. The data suggest that the economic recovery in Asia’s largest country is decreasing and that the government will likely have to consider additional stimulus measures in the coming months.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,505.42 −4.62 (−0.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,509.03 +113.89 (+0.33%)

DAX (DE40)  16,105.07 −35.96 (−0.22%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,434.57 −5.64 (−0.076%)

USD Index  99.96 +0.19 (−0.19%)

• – China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:15 (GMT+3);
• – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.14%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.85%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.58% on Thursday.

Factory inflation (PPI) in the US declined over the past month, another sign that overall inflationary pressures are cooling. But the labor market remains resilient, and this could be a trigger for the US Fed to raise rates even higher. The US jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 237,000 over the past week.

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it was too early for policymakers to say they had done enough to bring US inflation back to target levels. The policymaker added that although the consumer price data released on Wednesday was “very positive,” she would take a “wait-and-see stance” as the Fed remains firmly committed to bringing inflation down to 2%.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard, an influential US Fed official who called for aggressive interest rate hikes to combat the recent spike in inflation, has stepped down after 15 years in office. Bullard, 62, will step down completely on August 14 to become dean of the School of Business.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) increased by 0.74%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.33%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.32%.

The ECB’s monetary policy report from its June meeting confirmed that the ECB still believes policy tightening is necessary. As a result, another 25bp rate hike in July is a done deal. For the ECB to stop after that, it needs to see a further improvement in inflation dynamics, a transmission of monetary tightening to the real economy, including the labor market, and a downward revision of inflation forecasts. Committee officials do not consider a decline in inflation to be a sufficient condition for ending the tightening cycle if a robust labor market and strong wage growth prevail at the same time.

Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Friday and traded near 10-week highs on prospects of supply cuts amid disruptions in Libya and Nigeria. Oil markets rose sharply this week, following a decline in the dollar, as softer-than-expected US inflation data spurred bets that the Federal Reserve is close to peaking interest rates. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) highlighted rising global oil demand in 2023 in its monthly report released on Thursday.

Asian markets traded higher on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 1.00% for the day yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 2.81%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive by 1.08%. On Friday, most Asian stocks continued to rise, ending a positive week amid signs of slowing inflation in the US. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index had its best weekly performance, rising nearly 6% as big tech stocks benefited from bets that the Chinese government will loosen its grip on the country’s largest internet companies.

Singapore’s economy grew slightly more than expected in the second quarter. GDP grew by 0.3% in the latest quarter, with Singapore avoiding a technical recession after GDP contracted by 0.4% last quarter. Singapore’s export sector is suffering badly due to slowing demand in China, a major trading partner.

Philip Lowe will not be reappointed as governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Michelle Bullock will take over as RBA governor in September. Ms. Bullock has been deputy governor of the bank since April 2022, having served since 1985.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,510.04 +37.88 (+0.85%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,395.14 +47.71 (+0.14%)

DAX (DE40)  16,141.03 +118.03 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,440.21 +24.10 (+0.32%)

USD Index  99.43 −0.85 (−0.85%)

• – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 01:45 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

Stock indices closed higher on Wednesday due to cooling inflation in the United States. The consumer price level fell from 4% to 3% (3.1% expected) on an annualized basis. Core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) fell from 5.3% to 4.8% (5.0% expected). The sharp drop in inflation caused the dollar to fall to a 15-month low. Dollar weakness led most risk currencies, gold, and stock indices to rally. At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up by 0.25%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.15% on Wednesday.

The US Treasury yields also declined following a weak inflation reading, as the data combined with signs of a cooling labor market spurred bets that the Fed is likely to soften its hawkish stance in the coming months. The probability of a rate hike at the July West meeting is 92%, while the probability of a hike at the September and November meetings is 14% and 26%, respectively.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00% and also extended its projected timetable for lowering Canada’s inflation rate to its 2% target by mid-2025. The Bank of Canada left little guidance on the way forward. At the press conference, the Bank of Canada Governor indicated that the improvement in overall momentum was largely due to lower energy prices rather than underlying pressures, hinting that restrictive policies will be in place for longer.

Equity markets in Europe were predominantly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) jumped by 1.47%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.57%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.37%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 1.83%.

UK GDP showed no growth for the second quarter of 2023. On an annualized basis, the economy contracted by 0.4%. Manufacturing fell by 0.6% in May 2023 after falling by 0.2% in April 2023. The construction sector fell by 0.2% in May 2023 after falling by 0.9% in April 2023. Services output showed no growth in May 2023 after rising by 0.3% in April 2023. Overall, economic conditions continue to deteriorate, which could pose a challenge for the Bank of England to further fight inflation.

Gold rose sharply yesterday amid a falling dollar and government bond yields. There are good growth prospects for gold as the US Fed is at the end of its tightening cycle. At the same time, silver shows better performance among precious metals.

Asian markets mostly traded higher on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.04% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up by 0.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.14%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 0.81% for the day.

In Japan, conditions for rising inflation are emerging, which puts pressure on the Bank of Japan to abandon its multi-year soft monetary policy. Markets are already betting on the Bank of Japan’s policy adjustment, which is reflected in the strengthening of the Japanese yen.

Last month, China’s exports contracted at the fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Exports contracted by 12.4% year-on-year in June after falling by 7.5% in May. Imports fell by 6.8%, which was stronger than the 4.0% decline expected and the 4.5% drop in the previous month. The data indicate that China’s economic recovery has slowed after a strong first quarter, and analysts are now downgrading their forecasts for the economy for the rest of the year as factory output slows amid continued weak global demand.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,472.16 +32.90 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,347.43 +86.01 (+0.25%)

DAX (DE40)  16,023.00 +232.66 (+1.47%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,416.11 +133.59 (+1.83%)

USD Index  100.28 −1.08 (−1.07%)

• – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By George Prior

The US Federal Reserve won’t be swayed and will raise interest rates this month despite inflation coming in cooler than expected, says the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group’s warning comes as the latest US CPI comes in lighter than economists predicted.

He says: “Despite the data showing that the battle against inflation in the world’s largest economy is being won, we expect the Federal Reserve will resume its interest rate hiking agenda this month.

“The central banks’ officials will argue that there is still work to be done to tame inflation and they are unlikely to be dissuaded from their course of action for the time being.

“While we believe that the Fed will raise rates in July, there is now less justification for further hikes later this year.”

The deVere CEO is urging the US central bank not to raise interest rates past July.

“Investors are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve could with further hikes overtighten and that would steer the US economy into a major recession.

“The central bank must also ensure the broader picture is maintained and not be too cautious by overdoing the hikes, which would trigger the US recession deeper and longer.

“As the world’s largest economy, this would clearly have a serious, negative impact on the global economy.

“The most aggressive tightening campaign in decades is not quite finished – but the tide could be turning.

“Against this backdrop, a good fund manager will help you pick out the winners and losers to help you sidestep the risks to your wealth and seize the opportunities to build it for the long-term.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, stock indices closed higher, helped by growth in the energy and technology sectors. At yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.93%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.55%.

Today, the US will release inflation data for June. Inflation is expected to fall from 5.3% to 5.0% year-over-year. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is also expected to fall from 4% to 3.1% year-over-year. Although the issue of a rate hike at the July meeting is almost settled, traders are expecting a softer stance from the US Fed after the data release. Several Fed officials said yesterday that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, which sparked a rally in risk assets this week while also sending the dollar lower.

Shares of 3M (MMM) jumped nearly 5% after Bank of America raised its rating on the industrial and consumer products maker to “neutral” from “downgrade.” Wall Street’s major banks will kick off the second-quarter reporting season on Friday. Banks are expected to report higher profits in the second quarter as higher interest payments offset a downturn in deal-making. That said, JPMorgan (JPM) could lead the sector’s growth. Jefferies upgraded JPM to “buy” from “hold,” noting the strength of its balance sheet and earnings potential.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) rose by 0.75%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.81%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.12%.

German inflation continues to rise. The consumer price level rose by 0.3% over the last month. In annualized terms, inflation rose from 6.1% to 6.4%. The ECB is likely to continue to hike until September, and then it will depend on new inflation and labor market data.

There are growing expectations that the oil market may tighten in the second half of the year, supported by signs of oil production cuts and Saudi Arabia’s recent pledge to cut production by 1 million barrels per day in July. These have contributed to the rise in oil prices in recent days. The US will also release crude oil inventories data for last week today, where a decline of 2.2 million barrels is expected.

Asian markets were trading higher on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 0.04% for the day yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.97% for the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) close positive by 1.50%.

The Chinese Communist Party-backed China Securities Journal reported on Wednesday that Beijing is likely to increase stimulus spending after a series of weak economic indicators in the country. Increased stimulus spending in China is expected to boost economic growth in the country, which in turn could boost oil demand amid rising domestic fuel consumption.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left rates unchanged at 5.5% at its monetary policy meeting (MPC) today. Overall, the statement and minutes showed a dovish tone, raising the possibility that the RBNZ has ended the current tightening cycle, especially given the fact that the New Zealand economy is already in recession. The Reserve Bank said it expects core inflation to fall further from its peak and for core inflation to fall as capacity constraints ease. The Central Bank’s next monetary policy statement will be released on August 16.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,409.53 +10.58 (+0.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,944.40 +209.52 (+0.62%)

DAX (DE40)  15,673.16 +69.76 +(0.45%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,273.79 +16.85 (+0.23%)

USD Index  101.75 −0.22 (−0.21%)

• – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
• – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 06:10 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Financial Stability Report at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Press Conference at 18:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.