On Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) edged up by 0.02%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.36%. The US stocks were mostly flat as investors digested the new trade agreement between the US and the EU and prepared for a busy week filled with earnings reports and key economic data.

President Trump announced a tariff agreement with the EU, setting a baseline rate of 15% (lower than the previously threatened 30%) amid growing hopes for an extension of the US-China trade truce. Despite easing trade tensions, market sentiment remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainty about the broader economic impact of tariffs. Attention is now shifting to earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, as well as the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where investors will closely watch for any hints of a potential rate cut in September.

European stock markets mostly declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.43%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.43%. Major European equity markets fell after an early rally driven by the US-EU trade deal. The framework agreement includes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, as well as an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of energy and additional military equipment from the US. The deal also provides selective access to key segments of the European market. While considered a better outcome than the previously threatened 30–50% tariffs proposed by Trump, lingering uncertainty over the final terms sparked concern among European leaders.

WTI crude oil prices jumped more than 2% to $66.70 per barrel on Monday amid renewed geopolitical fears after US President Donald Trump accelerated the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump warned that Russia has 10–12 days to comply or face 100% “secondary tariffs,” raising concerns over potential disruptions in oil supplies. This follows new EU sanctions, including a lower price cap on Russian oil and a ban on importing petroleum products from third countries, set to take effect in January. If fully implemented, such measures could reduce global oil supply, especially given OPEC’s limited spare capacity.

The US natural gas prices dropped to $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest level since April 22, as weaker-than-expected summer heat and high production levels kept downward pressure on prices throughout July. Meanwhile, production remained high, averaging 107.2 billion cubic feet per day across the lower 48 US states in July, exceeding June’s record of 106.4 billion cubic feet per day. Inventories were about 6% above seasonal norms, reinforcing the view of an oversupplied market.

On Monday, silver prices remained under pressure, staying below $38.50 per ounce after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as recent trade deals between the US and key partners reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, markets are watching for further developments in US-China trade talks, which begin today in Stockholm, with expectations that discussions will go beyond tariffs and include broader geopolitical and economic issues.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 1.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed by 0.68%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.36%.

Thailand aims to finalize trade negotiations with the US by the August 1 deadline, and US tariffs are unlikely to reach 36%, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said on Tuesday. Bangkok expects a “very favorable” trade deal from the Trump administration following a peace initiative that resolved the border conflict with Cambodia. In 2024, the US was Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for 18.3% of total exports, or $54.96 billion, while the US trade deficit with Thailand stood at $45.6 billion.

Hong Kong’s trade deficit widened to $58.9 billion in June 2025 from $55.7 billion in the same month last year. Exports rose by 11.9% year-over-year to $417.8 billion. Meanwhile, imports increased by 11.1% to $476.7 billion. Imports from most major suppliers showed strong growth, particularly from Vietnam (+50.6%), the United Kingdom (+44.7%), and the US (+3.9%).