On Tuesday, the US stock market declined. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.05%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) dropped by 0.49%. The Tech Index Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.01%. The main blow to the artificial‑intelligence sector came from The Wall Street Journal’s reports about slowing growth at OpenAI. The company’s revenue and user inflows came in below expectations, raising doubts about the payback of massive spending on computing power. This news triggered a sell‑off in the semiconductor sector: Broadcom plunged more than 4%, AMD lost 3%, and market leader Nvidia fell by 1.5%. Oracle and Intel also closed in the red, losing 3% and 1% respectively. Tech giants Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet traded in negative territory amid nervousness ahead of their earnings releases.

Tuesday marked the seventh consecutive day of decline for European markets. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.46%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.11%. The main fear for investors remains the threat of stagflation: a combination of a stalling economy and sky‑high prices for imported energy, which continue to rise despite the sensational exit of the UAE from OPEC and OPEC+.

WTI oil prices have consolidated at 100 dollars per barrel, rising for the seventh consecutive session. The market reached April highs despite the headline event – the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+. This move by Abu Dhabi, aimed at gaining production freedom, has not cooled prices because any additional oil volumes cannot be delivered to consumers due to paralyzed logistics. The ninth week of the conflict has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a “dead zone”: whereas it previously carried 20% of global oil traffic, vessel movement is now nearly zero. The mutual naval blockade by the US and Iran has created an unprecedented supply deficit that outweighs any news about OPEC disunity. As Washington and Tehran exchange ultimatums, the global economy continues to balance on the edge of a stagflationary shock.

Silver prices (XAG) collapsed by more than 3%, falling to 73 dollars per ounce – the lowest level in a month. The sharp drop was triggered by the failure of another diplomatic attempt: US officials confirmed that Donald Trump rejected Iran’s “Pakistan proposal.” This decision shattered hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and stabilization of the energy market. The situation creates a paradox for precious metals. On one hand, 100‑dollar oil fuels inflation, which investors traditionally hedge with silver and gold. On the other hand, the same inflation forces central banks to prepare for a new tightening cycle. Since silver does not generate interest income, the prospect of “high rates for longer” makes it less attractive compared to government bonds.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) slipped by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.95%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.64%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) corrected below 0.72 USD but remains near four‑year highs. The main support factor is record inflation, which reached 4.6% in March due to a sharp rise in fuel prices amid the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Markets have almost fully priced in a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. The slight decline in the currency was caused by inflation data coming in slightly below the most pessimistic projections, as well as general risk aversion among investors. While major G7 central banks prepare to pause, the Australian regulator is forced to act aggressively to contain the price shock.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) lost recent gains on Tuesday, falling to 0.588 USD. After the release of high Q1 inflation data, the probability of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) at the May meeting is estimated by the market at more than 60%. Inflationary pressure is expected to intensify further in Q2, as current extremely high fuel costs begin to be fully reflected in the statistics.