Natural Gas and Gasoline lead the COT Energy Speculator bets lower

September 17, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Natural Gas and Gasoline

The COT energy market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

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Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil with a total gain on the week of 12,579 contracts.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-7,077 contracts), Gasoline (-3,574 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-2,635 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,796 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (-14 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,498,059	3	227,057	4	-244,007	98	16,950	28
Gold	463,674	3	97,344	2	-110,938	99	13,594	9
Silver	135,530	3	-4,640	9	-2,551	93	7,191	4
Copper	157,900	0	-18,986	23	20,512	80	-1,526	16
Palladium	6,085	1	-1,273	16	1,455	83	-182	33
Platinum	68,574	36	-1,879	7	-2,051	93	3,930	17
Natural Gas	977,116	4	-145,715	35	110,794	66	34,921	63
Brent	164,415	12	-39,023	46	34,919	51	4,104	65
Heating Oil	290,916	31	16,064	66	-31,353	38	15,289	51
Soybeans	643,018	15	92,110	42	-61,424	68	-30,686	19
Corn	1,310,411	6	294,569	68	-234,179	39	-60,390	8
Coffee	197,657	10	42,267	75	-44,360	29	2,093	19
Sugar	751,873	9	68,330	51	-79,426	53	11,096	22
Wheat	287,046	0	-8,128	8	12,977	78	-4,849	85

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) and Heating Oil (66.1 percent) lead the energy markets. These two markets are the only ones in energy that are above the 3-year midpoint at the current time (above 50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level followed by Gasoline (17.6 percent) and both are in bearish extreme readings (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (1.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (50.1 percent)
Natural Gas (34.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.0 percent)
Gasoline (17.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.2 percent)
Heating Oil (66.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (68.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is followed by Heating Oil (-8.8 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent), Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) and Gasoline (-5.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.1 percent)
Gasoline (-5.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.8 percent)
Heating Oil (-8.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (20.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 227,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 214,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	40.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	56.4	3.9
– Net Position:	227,057	-244,007	16,950
– Gross Longs:	340,716	600,618	75,790
– Gross Shorts:	113,659	844,625	58,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	98.4	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	7.8	-3.6

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -39,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	53.7	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	32.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-39,023	34,919	4,104
– Gross Longs:	27,455	88,321	9,542
– Gross Shorts:	66,478	53,402	5,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	51.3	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	5.1	42.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -145,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	42.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	31.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-145,715	110,794	34,921
– Gross Longs:	155,945	418,580	67,120
– Gross Shorts:	301,660	307,786	32,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	65.8	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	7.3	-5.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	48.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	67.0	7.1
– Net Position:	45,592	-45,909	317
– Gross Longs:	76,103	121,491	18,029
– Gross Shorts:	30,511	167,400	17,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	87.3	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	10.9	-41.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	55.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	65.8	9.0
– Net Position:	16,064	-31,353	15,289
– Gross Longs:	41,005	160,000	41,349
– Gross Shorts:	24,941	191,353	26,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.1	37.9	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	4.3	6.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	70.4	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	55.6	0.2
– Net Position:	-10,434	10,122	312
– Gross Longs:	18,402	48,090	447
– Gross Shorts:	28,836	37,968	135
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	32.2	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-8.7	3.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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