COT Week 22 Charts: Energy Speculator Positions Mixed led by Heating Oil, Gasoline

June 4, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets also had lower contracts. Leading the gains for energy were Heating Oil (6,319 contracts), Gasoline (1,265 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,202 contracts). Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-1,785 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-1,583 contracts) with Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,048 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is above its midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level.

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Strength score trends (or move index, that show 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that heating oil, natural gas and WTI crude have had rising scores over the past six weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-31-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,787,928	9	332,976	10	-373,761	91	40,785	72
Gold	513,722	18	172,589	5	-200,056	95	27,467	32
Silver	147,301	14	13,997	15	-23,861	99	9,864	6
Copper	189,923	19	-18,025	29	15,425	70	2,600	40
Palladium	6,538	1	-3,133	4	3,221	95	-88	39
Platinum	67,964	35	2,363	7	-6,501	96	4,138	20
Natural Gas	1,115,815	7	-110,368	45	59,679	50	50,689	100
Brent	181,699	25	-40,872	43	38,941	58	1,931	35
Heating Oil	248,966	15	121	43	-17,967	52	17,846	60
Soybeans	753,373	34	186,078	71	-158,757	34	-27,321	25
Corn	1,564,217	32	404,200	82	-353,348	22	-50,852	14
Coffee	214,170	8	43,015	76	-45,757	28	2,742	17
Sugar	848,463	11	201,680	78	-240,752	23	39,072	56
Wheat	331,136	11	22,309	48	-18,647	33	-3,662	91

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 332,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	34.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.0	55.7	2.7
– Net Position:	332,976	-373,761	40,785
– Gross Longs:	421,683	622,867	89,200
– Gross Shorts:	88,707	996,628	48,415
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	91.0	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-8.7	-3.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	54.0	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	32.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-40,872	38,941	1,931
– Gross Longs:	26,712	98,147	7,700
– Gross Shorts:	67,584	59,206	5,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.0	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.1	-6.9

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -110,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	37.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	32.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-110,368	59,679	50,689
– Gross Longs:	228,487	417,276	75,815
– Gross Shorts:	338,855	357,597	25,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	49.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-7.1	6.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	53.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	68.9	3.7
– Net Position:	33,690	-46,032	12,342
– Gross Longs:	76,089	165,784	23,735
– Gross Shorts:	42,399	211,816	11,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	91.0	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	4.9	26.7

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	49.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	56.9	9.5
– Net Position:	121	-17,967	17,846
– Gross Longs:	43,360	123,782	41,618
– Gross Shorts:	43,239	141,749	23,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	52.1	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-7.4	-7.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.6	28.5	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	93.7	0.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-10,561	10,027	534
– Gross Longs:	22,382	10,027	679
– Gross Shorts:	32,943	0	145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	inf to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	31.9	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	7.7	-7.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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