by JustForex
The EUR/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.1717
- Prev Close: 1.1730
- % chg. over the last day: +0.11%
The euro continues to show negative dynamics, looking the weakest among the major currencies. The ADP data only had a short-term impact on intraday fluctuations. In the American and Asian sessions, the price returned to the lows of the week. The yield spread of German Bonds to T-Note continues to decline, indicating increasing interest from major players in the US dollar.
- Support levels: 1.1688, 1.1601
- Resistance levels: 1.1889, 1.1990
The main scenario for EUR/USD is selling. Technical indicators show strong southward pressure in the medium and long term. The northern pullback on Wednesday did not affect the technical picture. Moreover, a minor correction allows expecting updates of lows set in the Asian session on Wednesday.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1754, the pair may start to rise to 1.1889.
- – Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.3737
- Prev Close: 1.3778
- % chg. over the last day: +0.30%
The sterling continues to trade in a narrow range, showing no signs of exit. Considering that by the end of the week, there will be no important data that could increase volatility in this pair, and the commodity market is preparing for an early closing on Friday, the price may remain near current levels.
- Support levels: 1.3705, 1.3680
- Resistance levels: 1.3812, 1.3846
The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3812 and 1.3705. Technical indicators point to declining bearish pressure. The ADX is gradually decreasing on all timeframes. On the H1, the MACD is near zero, and the price is near the moving averages. These are all signs of lateral dynamics.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3812, the pound may resume growth to 1.3846 or higher. A breakdown of 1.3705 could trigger a further decline.
- – UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The USD/JPY currency pair
- Prev Open: 110.34
- Prev Close: 110.71
- % chg. over the last day: +0.33%
The dollar-yen pair continues to move northward, as the stock market and government bond yields show solid consolidation near annual highs. According to Tankan, business sentiment indices for the first time since December 2019 have shown values above zero, which positively affects the Asia-Pacific region’s risky assets.
- Support levels: 109.38, 108.35
- Resistance levels: 111.71, 112.24
The main scenario is buying. The ADX on the H1, the H4, and the D1 timeframes shows the growth of bullish pressure. After the southern pullback on Wednesday, the movement’s potential has slightly decreased, but there are no signs for a reversal or correction so far. As long as the price is above the moving averages, growth remains the main direction.
An alternative scenario implies price fixing below 110.10. In this case, the pair could drop to 109.38.
- – The Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (1 q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
The USD/CAD currency pair
- Prev Open: 1.2627
- Prev Close: 1.2558
- % chg. over the last day: -0.55%
The Canadian dollar shows strong fluctuations ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which will take place today in the European session. Market participants expect oil production to be reduced, allowing oil prices to continue the northern rally.
- Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2446
- Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2745
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2546 and 1.2629. The ADX shows an increase in the northern movement’s potential, which gives a small probability of a breakout of the first resistance level. The rest of the indicators point to calm intraday trading.
Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2546, the pair may resume its southern movement to 1.2466. A breakout at 1.2629 could trigger further gains.
- – OPEC+ Meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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