Crude oil prices surged sharply by 7% in reaction to the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East

On Wednesday, US stock indices showed mixed dynamics amid geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.09%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.28%. The technology‑heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher yesterday by 0.27%. The S&P 500 and the industrial Dow Jones declined, reflecting investor concerns over rising energy prices following President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 received support from the semiconductor sector, which began recovering after recent sell‑offs.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging: Treasury yields rose, and the minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the regulator’s readiness to raise rates further if inflation remains persistent. This put pressure on sectors sensitive to credit conditions: JPMorgan shares fell by 2.5%, and Visa by 1.3%. Shares of major tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft also declined due to investor doubts about the profitability of large‑scale spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its global growth expectations for the current year at 3%, only 0.1 percentage points below the April estimate. Such resilience of the global economy is attributed to successful adaptation to the consequences of the conflict with Iran, as well as significant inflows of investment into artificial intelligence technologies. The outlook for 2027 was revised upward – from 3.2% to 3.4%.

European indices closed mixed on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.23%. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 2.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 2.73%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 1.66%. The yield on 10‑year German government bonds (Bunds) rose to 3.1%, the highest level since May 21, marking the longest upward streak since the beginning of the year. The main driver of the sell‑off in the bond market was concern about accelerating inflation amid a sharp rise in oil prices caused by the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. This means the European Central Bank will have to keep interest rates high for a longer period. Markets are currently pricing in more than 30 basis points of additional tightening by the ECB this year, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike as early as September.

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 7%, reaching 75.6 dollars per barrel. This jump was a reaction to the rapid escalation of the conflict in the Middle East: after President Trump’s statements about ending the ceasefire with Iran and threats of new military strikes, Tehran reported attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The situation worsened after Washington revoked exemptions for Iranian oil exports, raising concerns about a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global energy supplies passes.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 2.99%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower by 0.21%.

On Thursday, Australian stocks declined again, marking the fourth consecutive session of losses. The main pressure on the market came from the non‑energy mining sector, healthcare, processing industries, and financials, while investors remained cautious ahead of important inflation and producer price data in China. Negative sentiment was reinforced by a statement from the deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Sarah Hunter, who warned that the country may need a period of slower economic growth and rising unemployment to combat inflation expectations.