Oil prices surged again amid rumors of a freeze in diplomacy between the United States and Iran

The main US stock indices started the summer with confident gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.26%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.09%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.60%. Powerful fuel for buying came from new geopolitical statements by the White House and a loud technological announcement in the artificial intelligence sector. The main locomotive of the market rally was the technology sector, where Nvidia produced a real sensation. Its shares jumped 6.3% after the official presentation of the new RTX Spark superchip, which marks the corporation’s aggressive entry into the mass personal computer market. Nvidia’s success instantly triggered a chain reaction across the entire IT complex.

On Monday, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.40%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.45%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.97%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session lower by 0.68%. The main trigger for the market reversal into the red zone was alarming reports from the Middle East that the Iranian delegation had unilaterally halted indirect negotiations with the United States. Tehran responded with this demarche to Israel’s large‑scale expansion of its military operation in Lebanon. The situation worsened after official statements from Iran, in which it not only threatened a total military blockade of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz but also promised to extend its countermeasures to the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait near the Horn of Africa in response to alleged violations of the ceasefire.

Oil prices ended the first trading day of June with a powerful rally: US WTI crude jumped by 6%, settling above $92 per barrel. During the session, the market nearly entered panic mode when WTI quotes spiked more than 8% intraday. The catalyst for the price shock was publications in Iranian state media claiming that Tehran was fully freezing any contacts with Washington in response to new military strikes in Lebanon and was beginning preparations for a total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of an immediate loss of one‑fifth of global hydrocarbon supplies pushed geopolitical risk premiums to the maximum. The unprecedented intraday overheating of prices was cooled only by US President Donald Trump personally. In his special statement, he said that Israel and Hezbollah had reached an agreement on a mutual ceasefire in Lebanon, and that diplomatic dialogue with Iran, contrary to rumors, was continuing.

The US natural gas prices showed a notable correction, dropping more than 3% and falling below $3.2 per MMBtu (million British thermal units). Thus, “blue fuel” retreated from the local high of $3.29 reached in the previous session amid profit‑taking and traders reassessing the supply‑demand balance. Despite the daily decline, May turned out to be extremely successful for the US gas market: by the end of the month, prices surged 18.9%, fully offsetting April’s 4.1% drop.
In Asia on Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.86%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.03%.

The offshore yuan showed confident strengthening, reaching around 6.76 yuan per dollar. The Chinese currency approached its highest levels since February 2023. Against the backdrop of a sharp escalation of the geopolitical crisis around Iran, international investors increasingly began redirecting capital into Chinese assets, viewing them as a relatively safe haven. China’s leadership traditionally strives for strict exchange‑rate stability to prevent excessive appreciation of national exports amid a stagnating industrial PMI. This defensive stance of the monetary authorities is clearly reflected in the regulator’s actions: the People’s Bank of China continues to set daily reference fixings at levels noticeably weaker than market expectations.