The US and Iran have reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire and gradually unblock the Strait of Hormuz

On Thursday, US stock indices closed at new all‑time highs. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.05%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.58%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.91%. The main drivers of the rally were the breakthrough developments in the Middle East: negotiators from the US and Iran finally reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire and gradually unblock oil and LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf, which ultimately deflated speculative pressure in the commodity market and stabilized government bond yields.

In Europe, by the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.34%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed lower 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended in the red at 0.64%. The published minutes of the ECB’s April meeting confirmed a deep split within the regulator and strengthened the market’s “hawkish” expectations. It turned out that keeping rates unchanged in April was a compromise and “highly contentious” decision: some officials were ready to vote for immediate tightening. The minutes also show that even the two rounds of monetary tightening planned for this year may not return inflation to the 2% target. Against this backdrop, markets have become more confident that on June 11, the ECB will almost certainly raise key rates by 25 basis points, and are pricing in at least one more similar move before year‑end.

WTI crude oil prices showed high volatility, fluctuating around $89 per barrel. Early in the session, prices jumped by about 2% due to another escalation: the US destroyed several attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz, Kuwait intercepted a missile fired in its direction, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened a harsh response to attempts by foreign vessels to enter the Persian Gulf. However, prices later erased all gains after an Axios report that the US and Iran had agreed on a preliminary 60‑day memorandum. The document, which still needs approval from President Donald Trump, guarantees unimpeded navigation and obliges Iran to fully clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, sharply reducing the geopolitical risk premium.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) jumped more than 4%, holding above $3.2 per MMBtu and approaching February highs. A powerful trigger for buyers was fresh EIA data. For the week ending May 22, US utilities injected 92 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, noticeably below the expected 95-96 bcf and far below last year’s 104 bcf. As a result, total inventories reached 2.483 trillion cubic feet. Although this level still exceeds last year’s by 0.9% and the five‑year seasonal average by 6.2%, the market surplus continues to shrink.

In Asia on Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.88%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.73%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose by 0.11%.

The offshore yuan stabilized around 6.76 per dollar, holding near its strongest levels since February 2023. The main support factor for China’s currency was the news of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. An additional powerful driver for the yuan is the global artificial intelligence boom, which has sharply increased demand for Chinese tech exports. This inflow of foreign currency has significantly eased Beijing’s concerns about excessive yuan appreciation, allowing it to finish May with a second consecutive month of gains despite regular attempts by the People’s Bank of China to restrain the momentum through lower‑than‑expected daily fixings.

The Australian dollar stabilized around 0.71 USD, ending May with a moderate decline of about 0.5%. The main pressure on the “aussie” came from a sharp drop in investor expectations for further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia. April inflation came in below predictions, consumer spending weakened, and the labor market showed the first signs of stabilization. As a result, traders reduced the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting to just 5%, although they still estimate the chances of a final move to 4.6% in Q4 2026 at around 70%.

The Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Anna Breman, reaffirmed the regulator’s “hawkish” stance in her speech, stating that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) may rise faster and more aggressively than previously expected. Breman emphasized that due to the escalation of the Middle East conflict, New Zealand and its key trading partners face a classic stagflation scenario: slowing economic growth alongside a short‑term spike in inflation caused by supply chain disruptions and rising production costs.