The oil market may remain in a state of severe supply shortage until autumn

On Wednesday, the US stock indices mostly rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 updating historical highs amid the ongoing rally in the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.14%. The S&P 500 (US500) rose by 0.58%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.04%. The main driver of growth once again was shares of processor and memory‑chip manufacturers, which remain key beneficiaries of the global boom surrounding artificial intelligence and investments in AI infrastructure.

Shares of Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple strengthened significantly, supporting the rise of the so‑called “Magnificent Seven.” Additional optimism came from US President Donald Trump’s visit to China, joined by the heads of major American technology companies. Markets expect that the upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may lead to new trade agreements, especially in the strategically important semiconductor sector, which could ease tensions in the technological standoff between the US and China.

European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.35%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.46%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.58%. The market was supported by strong corporate earnings and investor optimism ahead of US President Donald Trump’s visit to China, which helped offset persistent concerns about the conflict with Iran and high energy prices.

On Wednesday, WTI oil prices held near 102 dollars per barrel, trimming part of their intraday losses after a rapid increase of more than 7% over the previous three sessions, as tensions in the Middle East and the rapid decline in global inventories continued to support the market. According to the IEA, global oil stocks fell by about 4 million barrels per day in March and April, while Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its production had dropped to the lowest level since 1990. The agency warned that the market may remain in a state of severe supply shortage at least until October, even if the conflict between the US and Iran ends in the coming months. Additional support for prices came from US data showing a 4.3‑million‑barrel decline in crude inventories last week – almost twice as strong as market expectations.

The US natural gas prices rose to 2.87 dollars per MMBtu, once again approaching their highest levels in more than six weeks amid ongoing production cuts and improved demand expectations. The market is supported by declining US gas output, as several energy companies, including EQT, have reduced production due to a prolonged period of low spot prices, aiming to ease oversupply pressure.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.84%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.15%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.46%. In Australia, investor sentiment was pressured by warnings in the federal budget for 2026, where authorities pointed to serious risks associated with the ongoing fuel crisis and high energy prices. The market fears that the proposed support measures may be insufficient to fully protect the economy from the effects of the external inflation shock.

Investors expect a reduction in geopolitical tensions and hope for possible stabilization of bilateral relations ahead of the Donald Trump–Xi Jinping summit in Beijing. Additional support for the market came from the overall rise in Asian exchanges, where technology companies once again led the gains.