Week Ahead: USDInd braces for slew of risk events

• FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 1.7% YTD
• Iran conflict + Inflation combo = fresh volatility?
• Over past year CPI decision triggered moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 1.0%
• Technical levels: 100.70, 100.00 and 99.0

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East and top-tier economic data could present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

The OPEC+ meeting, President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and key US inflation data will be in focus:

Monday, 6th April

• Easter Monday – Major financial markets are closed across Europe.
• Deadline set by Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• USDInd: ISM Services PMI (March)

Tuesday, 7th April

• EUR: Eurozone S&P Global services PMI
• SEK: Sweden CPI
• USDInd: Fed Goolsbee Speech, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

Wednesday, 8th April

• CHF: Unemployment Rate (March)
• GBP: S&P Global Construction PMI (March)
• EUR: Retail Sales MoM (Feb), PPI
• OIL: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
• USDInd: FOMC Minutes

Thursday, 9th April

• JPY: Consumer Confidence (March)
• GER40: German Industrial Production MoM (Feb)
• US500: US February PCE report, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP

Friday, 10th April

• CNY: China Inflation Rates YoY (March)
• USDInd: US CPI (March), Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The spotlight is on FXTM’s USDInd, which is currently trading around 100.00.

1.     Ongoing Iran conflict (Week 6)

President Donald Trump has issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure in a bid to pressure Tehran in talks.

These developments come ahead of the Monday, 6th April, deadline set for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Given how Iran and Israel continue to trade strikes, it feels like we are back at square one with an extended conflict sending shockwaves across the globe.

Note: The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since 2nd March 2026.

• If the conflict deepens with both sides attacking key energy infrastructure, the USDInd may rally as surging oil prices fuel rate hike bets.
• Any signs of easing tensions and re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz to the US may weaken the USDInd as inflation concerns cool.

2.     US February PCE report – Thursday 9th April

The February US personal income and spending report including the PCE index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — will offer key insight into the direction of price pressures.

Markets are forecasting PCE deflator YoY to remain unchanged in February with the core figure cooling to 2.9% from 3.1%.

Ultimately, any signs of rising price pressure may reinforce bets around higher US interest rates.

Traders are currently pricing in a 23% probability of a 25-baisis point cut by December.

Beyond the PCE report, it will be wise to keep an eye on speeches by a host of Fed officials and other US data, including PMI’s which may influence the USDInd.

• The USDInd may jump on signs of rising price pressures in the United States.
• A cooler-than-expected PCE report could drag the USDInd lower.

3.     US March CPI – Friday 10th April

The incoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will offer a key read on inflation amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Markets are forecasting:

• CPI year-on-year (March 2026 vs. March 2025) to rise 3.4% from 2.4%
• CPI month-on-month to rise 1.0 from 0.3%
• Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.7% from 2.5%
• Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.2%

Signs of conflict-induced inflation may boost expectations of the Fed hiking rates.

4.     Technical forces

FXTM’s USDInd is respecting a bullish channel on the daily charts.

• A solid breakout and daily close above 100.00 could signal a move back toward 100.70 and 101.00.
• Sustained weakness below 100.00 could see prices decline back toward 99.00 and 98.00.