11 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Palladium, Steel, WTI Crude & Sugar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

January 11, 2026

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 6th 2026.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Extreme Bullish Speculator Table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most extreme bullish standing  of the week. The Palladium speculator level sits at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

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The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise by 7 percentage points while the speculator position registered 579 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 1,150 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Steel

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Steel speculator position comes in as the second most bullish extreme standing this week with the Steel speculator level currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 21 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 9,477 net contracts this week with a dip by -584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The EUR speculator level currently resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 26 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 162,812 net contracts this week with a boost by 5,347 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

Extreme Bullish Leader
The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 6 percentage points while the overall speculator position was 11,483 net contracts this week with a weekly drop of -4,757 contracts in the speculator bets.

Copper

Extreme Bullish Leader
The Copper speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Copper speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range with the six-week trend for the speculator strength score gaining by 13 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was 57,858 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,981 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Extreme Bearish Speculator Table

WTI Crude Oil

Extreme Bearish Leader
The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at just a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 1 percentage point this week. The overall speculator position totaled 57,352 net contracts this week with a change of -7,239 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Cocoa speculator level sitting at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 10 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 3,230 net contracts this week with a small gain of 72 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level also resides at an approximate 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 8 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -154,098 net contracts this week with a drop of -16,276 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the speculator standing leveled at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21 percentage points this week. The speculator position totaled -165,559 net contracts this week with a decline of -10,665 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

Extreme Bearish Leader
The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -28 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -51,163 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,277 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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