Week Ahead: Bitcoin to break records on Trump’s inauguration?

• Bitcoin ↑ almost 10% YTD, adding to 120% gain in 2024
  

• Trump expected to sign pro-crypto executive order
  

• US data could influence Fed cut bets – impacting Bitcoin

• Prices bullish on weekly channel but RSI overbought
  

• Technical levels: $103,000 & $91,500

Bitcoin is up almost 10% this year after securing triple-digit gains in 2024.

Soft US inflation figures sent the “OG” crypto surging this week as Fed cut bets jumped.

With prices back above the psychological $100,000 level, the all-time high at $108,372.55 is the next key checkpoint.

Bitcoin could hit fresh records with the right catalyst. This may come in the form of Trump’s inauguration.

Beyond this major event, watch out for top-tier data releases and corporate earnings:

Monday, 20th January

• CN50: China loan prime rates
• JP225: Japan tertiary index, machinery orders, industrial production
• Bitcoin: Donald Trump’s Inauguration
• US markets closed: Martin Luther King Jr. federal holiday
• Annual World Economic Forum in Davos

Tuesday, 21st January

• CAD: Canada CPI
• GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
• TWN: Taiwan export orders
• GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
• NAS100: Netflix earnings.

Wednesday, 22nd January

• NZD: New Zealand CPI
• EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech – Davos
• ZAR: South Africa retail sales, CPI
• TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
• USDInd: US Conference Board leading index

Thursday, 23rd January

• CAD: Canada retail sales
• EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
• JPY: Japan trade
• TWN: Taiwan industrial production
• US500: US jobless claims

Friday, 24th January

• GER40: Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI
• JPY: BoJ rate decision, Japan CPI
• SG20: Singapore industrial production
• TWN: Taiwan GDP
• GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI
• US30: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, existing home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI

Bitcoin remains in a wide range on the weekly charts with support at $91,500 and resistance at $103,000.

Prices are trading well above the 21, 50 and 100 week SMA but the Relative Strength (RSI) Index signals that prices are heavily overbought.

At the current price of around $102,000, Bitcoin is trading roughly 6% away from its all-time high.

Here are 3 reasons to trade Bitcoin next week:

  1) Donald Trump’s inauguration

Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th U.S. President on January 20th.

On his first day, he expected to issue a series of executive orders, some of which are positive for cryptocurrencies.

These orders will make crypto a national priority, target debanking and could also include the creation of a national Bitcoin stockpile.

Market optimism around more industry regulations under Trump has propelled Bitcoin roughly 50% since Trump’s victory on November 5th.

The “OG” crypto could be set for another boost if the crypto community welcomes Trump’s executive orders.

  2) Key US data

The latest US inflation figures have revived hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2025.

Investors will keep a keen eye on the US jobless claims, consumer sentiment and PMI’s among other releases to gauge the strength of the US economy.

Traders are currently pricing in a Fed rate cut by July 2025, with the odds of another cut by December at 70%.

If the incoming US data influences Fed rate cut bets, it could move Bitcoin which has shown sensitivity to interest rates.

  3) Technical forces

Bitcoin is on breakout watch with resistance at $103,000 and support at $91,500.

• A solid breakout and daily close above $103,000 could open a path back toward $108,372.5 and fresh all-time highs at $110,000 – a psychological level.

• Should $103,000 prove reliable resistance, Bitcoin could slip back towards $100,000 and $91,500.