20 Nov

COT Metals Speculators boost their Gold bullish bets to 13-week high

November 20, 2022

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week.

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Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (43,931 contracts) with Copper (6,908 contracts), Silver (4,604 contracts), Platinum (3,095 contracts) and Palladium (1,338 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rebound of the Gold speculator bets. The large speculator position for Gold jumped by over +40,000 contracts this week following a gain by over +17,000 contracts. This week’s rise marked the highest weekly gain in 143-weeks and the renewed speculator sentiment has pushed the overall Gold net position back above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since early September. The Gold speculator net standing is now at the highest level since August 16th when the net contracts was +141,164 contracts.

Gold prices have had a bit of an upswing since November 4th as well as the futures price has risen from the (Nov. 4th) opening level of $1,631.00 to close out this week at the $1,754.40 threshold. Gold, also this week, touched its highest level since the middle of August just below $1,792.00 before retreating lower.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-15-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,469,4373278,26718-307,3958129,12848
Gold495,17117126,26925-134,308788,0390
Silver141,6231417,60734-29,4246711,81727
Copper168,96299,82144-13,583563,76247
Palladium8,79314-1,072171,23181-15932
Platinum63,3912722,54439-27,037624,49328
Natural Gas978,4256-152,11433120,8306931,28454
Brent139,0804-25,1946920,782284,41269
Heating Oil275,2542625,66080-46,9332121,27372
Soybeans616,094976,80437-49,04672-27,75824
Corn1,421,55522252,90862-211,86242-41,04619
Coffee191,7436-14,154011,8401002,31432
Sugar832,52226156,19459-201,7793945,58564
Wheat350,09127-22,481029,310100-6,82975

 

Copper & Platinum lead Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (44.1 percent) and Platinum (39.4 percent) lead the metals category. Silver (33.5 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (17.5 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position with a score under 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (24.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (33.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.4 percent)
Copper (44.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (38.6 percent)
Platinum (39.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.2 percent)
Palladium (17.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)

Platinum tops the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Platinum (25.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (22.3 percent), Gold (12.6 percent) and Silver (9.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-2.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (22.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.4 percent)
Platinum (25.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (25.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 43,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.927.37.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.454.45.8
– Net Position:126,269-134,3088,039
– Gross Longs:227,282135,03536,973
– Gross Shorts:101,013269,34328,934
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.677.70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.6-11.7-0.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.234.217.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.854.98.9
– Net Position:17,607-29,42411,817
– Gross Longs:52,69248,39324,386
– Gross Shorts:35,08577,81712,569
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.567.427.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.8-11.214.0

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.936.510.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.144.68.0
– Net Position:9,821-13,5833,762
– Gross Longs:60,73061,69317,332
– Gross Shorts:50,90975,27613,570
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.156.547.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.3-24.520.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.227.411.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.670.14.8
– Net Position:22,544-27,0374,493
– Gross Longs:33,07917,3747,567
– Gross Shorts:10,53544,4113,074
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.461.928.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.9-25.18.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.751.313.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.937.315.0
– Net Position:-1,0721,231-159
– Gross Longs:1,9974,5121,161
– Gross Shorts:3,0693,2811,320
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.581.132.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.85.0-23.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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