By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Heating Oil
COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.
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Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (17,221 contracts) with Heating Oil (3,668 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (176 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gasoline (-4,974 contracts) with Natural Gas (-3,007 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-2,068 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Oct-11-2022 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,499,498 | 3 | 259,220 | 13 | -283,626 | 88 | 24,406 | 41 |
| Gold | 431,395 | 0 | 94,420 | 14 | -103,728 | 87 | 9,308 | 3 |
| Silver | 125,623 | 0 | 7,389 | 22 | -15,603 | 80 | 8,214 | 10 |
| Copper | 167,449 | 8 | -15,899 | 24 | 16,903 | 80 | -1,004 | 19 |
| Palladium | 6,890 | 5 | -754 | 19 | 810 | 79 | -56 | 41 |
| Platinum | 52,435 | 9 | 5,928 | 17 | -8,690 | 85 | 2,762 | 5 |
| Natural Gas | 974,468 | 5 | -162,103 | 30 | 130,099 | 72 | 32,004 | 56 |
| Brent | 163,113 | 11 | -41,888 | 41 | 38,882 | 58 | 3,006 | 50 |
| Heating Oil | 275,262 | 25 | 19,423 | 71 | -38,448 | 30 | 19,025 | 64 |
| Soybeans | 694,960 | 26 | 55,769 | 30 | -30,614 | 77 | -25,155 | 29 |
| Corn | 1,408,939 | 20 | 325,121 | 72 | -258,225 | 35 | -66,896 | 5 |
| Coffee | 188,198 | 3 | 40,534 | 73 | -43,359 | 30 | 2,825 | 29 |
| Sugar | 687,209 | 0 | 101,115 | 57 | -135,145 | 43 | 34,030 | 50 |
| Wheat | 307,901 | 9 | -1,990 | 16 | 8,705 | 72 | -6,715 | 76 |
Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Commodity Index & Heating Oil
Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) and Heating Oil (71.0 percent) lead the energy markets with scores above 50 percent.
On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (12.8 percent) and Gasoline (15.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and both are in extreme bearish levels (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.4 percent)
Natural Gas (29.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (30.8 percent)
Gasoline (15.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (20.3 percent)
Heating Oil (71.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (65.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (77.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index leads the 6-Week Strength Trends
Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (18.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.9 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.
Natural Gas (-10.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Heating Oil (-8.5 percent) followed by Gasoline (-6.4 percent).
Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.7 percent)
Natural Gas (-10.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-9.2 percent)
Gasoline (-6.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-4.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-8.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (18.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (18.6 percent)
Individual COT Energy Market Charts:
WTI Crude Oil Futures:
The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 259,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241,999 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.0 | 39.0 | 5.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 5.7 | 57.9 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 259,220 | -283,626 | 24,406 |
| – Gross Longs: | 345,258 | 584,609 | 76,359 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 86,038 | 868,235 | 51,953 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 12.8 | 87.7 | 40.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.9 | -7.4 | -4.4 |
Brent Crude Oil Futures:
The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,820 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.5 | 51.4 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.2 | 27.6 | 3.1 |
| – Net Position: | -41,888 | 38,882 | 3,006 |
| – Gross Longs: | 28,606 | 83,836 | 7,999 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 70,494 | 44,954 | 4,993 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.9 | 57.9 | 49.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.2 | 3.8 | -5.7 |
Natural Gas Futures:
The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -162,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,096 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.5 | 44.4 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.1 | 31.0 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | -162,103 | 130,099 | 32,004 |
| – Gross Longs: | 140,917 | 432,665 | 65,929 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 303,020 | 302,566 | 33,925 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.9 | 71.9 | 56.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.0 | 11.9 | -10.1 |
Gasoline Blendstock Futures:
The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,256 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.6 | 53.0 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 71.9 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | 43,282 | -48,643 | 5,361 |
| – Gross Longs: | 73,663 | 136,457 | 19,739 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 30,381 | 185,100 | 14,378 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.3 | 84.7 | 48.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.4 | 4.6 | 10.8 |
#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:
The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,755 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.1 | 48.4 | 16.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.1 | 62.4 | 9.6 |
| – Net Position: | 19,423 | -38,448 | 19,025 |
| – Gross Longs: | 41,620 | 133,301 | 45,373 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 22,197 | 171,749 | 26,348 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.0 | 30.3 | 64.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.5 | 5.7 | 1.6 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:
The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,799 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.6 | 76.4 | 0.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.5 | 63.8 | 0.2 |
| – Net Position: | -7,623 | 7,468 | 155 |
| – Gross Longs: | 11,559 | 45,105 | 253 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,182 | 37,637 | 98 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 2.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 78.3 | 22.0 | 15.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 18.9 | -18.4 | -6.8 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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