The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0441
• Prev Close: 1.0483
• % chg. over the last day: -0.40%

The latest economic data showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone was 6.6%, down from 6.7%. Inflation in France climbed to a record high of 6.5% in June, with consumer price growth of 0.7% last month. Against this data, the euro rose sharply against the dollar yesterday, increasing the probability that the ECB will act more aggressively in terms of tightening monetary policy. Today in Europe, the preliminary total inflation figure for the Eurozone will be released, and analysts are leaning that consumer prices will rise from 8.1% to 8.5% annually.

• Support levels: 1.0425, 1.0379
• Resistance levels: 1.0504, 1.0564, 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages, but the MACD indicator has become positive. There is a new initiative from the buyers. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0504, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0425, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2122
• Prev Close: 1.2178
• % chg. over the last day: -0.46%

The British pound rose yesterday as the dollar index fell after negative US spending data. The UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2022. But the outlook for the British pound now depends more on the future direction of inflation in the US and the current instability in the UK. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index stalled at 0.3% month-over-month in May, pushing the annual core PCE inflation rate down to 4.7% from 4.9%. At the same time, the Bank of England remains most concerned about the risk of higher commodity prices, which will cause wages and other prices in the economy to rise faster than usual.

• Support levels: 1.2115, 1.1974
• Resistance levels: 1.2172, 1.2238, 1.2324, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and there is a new buying initiative on the intraday time frames. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2172, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2115, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2422 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 136.58
• Prev Close: 135.70
• % chg. over the last day: -0.64%

Japan’s main Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined from 53.3 in May to 52.7 in June. According to the PMI report, Japanese companies noted that rising costs and persistent material shortages contributed to the slowdown in production, and new orders increased only fractionally. Continued supply chain disruptions and delays led to further rapid cost increases, leading to a sharp rise in factory prices, the fastest in the survey’s history. That said, companies are increasingly confident that these problems will dissipate next year as business confidence rose to its highest level since March. Lower economic indicators are prompting investors to buy the Japanese yen amid a possible rejection of monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan.

• Support levels: 134.83, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
• Resistance levels: 135.56, 136.24

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But sellers’ pressure has been growing during the last few days. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 134.83, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.56 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 133.35, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Large Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2886
• Prev Close: 1.2873
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10%

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.3% in April, following a 0.7% increase in March. Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas production sectors showed the largest gains. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the dynamics of the dollar index but also on oil prices. Both the dollar index and oil quotes went down yesterday. As a result, the price of USD/CAD continues to form a wide price corridor. It should be noted that both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve are on track to raise interest rates, while the oil market is still in deficit with rising summer demand. All of this suggests that no medium-term trends should be expected on the USD/CAD currency pair, as market conditions favor strengthening the dollar index and the Canadian dollar.

• Support levels: 1.2885, 1.2831, 1.2781, 1.2701, 1.2616
• Resistance levels: 1.2932, 1.2957, 1.3045

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading in a wide corridor, a slight pressure from buyers prevails, and the MACD indicator does not show activity. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2885, but with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2957, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2831 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.