This week’s focus is on the EU leaders’ summit, the oil market situation, and geopolitics

March 21, 2022

Last week, investors’ attention was focused on the US, UK, and Japanese central bank meetings and inflation rates in Europe and Canada. This week will not be full of economic events, so the investors’ attention will be focused on the situation in Ukraine. Also, this week there will be a virtual summit organized by the Bank for International Settlements, which will be addressed by many US officials, including Jerome Powell. On Wednesday, the UK will update its inflation data. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.4-0.5%, although the Bank of England has already raised interest rates three times. On Thursday, data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in many countries and durable goods order data in the US will be released. A summit of EU leaders on security issues will also take place on Thursday. Investors should closely monitor the oil market. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions could exacerbate supply shortages unless Western countries agree to increase supplies from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Monday, March 21

On Monday, investors should focus on the next round of talks between Ukraine and Russia and speeches by the head of the ECB and the Fed. Any hints from Christine Lagarde about tightening monetary policy could add to the euro’s confidence. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.

Main events of the day:

– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2).

Monday, March 22

No important economic data is expected on Tuesday. Still, investors should pay attention to the Fed, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Switzerland national bank officials’ speeches.

Main events of the day:

– Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 03:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 17:15 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:35 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Daly’s Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Mesters’s Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+2).

Monday, March 23

On Wednesday, investors’ attention will be focused on the consumer price index data in the United Kingdom. Analysts expect inflation to rise by 0.4-0.5% due to the surge in energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. Volatility in pairs with the British pound could increase. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which have a large impact on oil prices, should also be the focus of traders.

Main events of the day:

– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Annual Budget Release at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Daly’s Speaks at 17:45 (GMT+2).

Monday, March 24

Various Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI statistics for many countries will be presented on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank will publish its interest rate decision and monetary policy protocol. No surprises are expected, but volatility in currency pairs with the Swiss franc will increase. Also, on Thursday, the summit of EU leaders on the war in Ukraine and security in Europe will begin, with the planned participation of US President Joe Biden.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Economic Bulletin at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone EU Leaders Summit at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Waller’s Speaks at 15:10 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic’s Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2).

Monday, March 25

The most important Friday’s release is the Germany Business Climate data from the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. Markets ignored the decline in the ZEW index last week, focusing instead on central banks’ efforts to curb inflation. But as rising energy prices cut household spending, pessimistic business climate indices could be a wake-up call for the euro.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone EU Leaders Summit at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Waller’s Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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This week’s focus is on the EU leaders’ summit, the oil market situation, and geopolitics