The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.01.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1311
• Prev Close: 1.1343
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28%

The Eurozone is to release the Manufacturing and Services PMI data today, which will show how economic activity developed in December when the Omicron strain was prevailing in the region. Analysts are expecting a decline in the figures.

• Support levels: 1.1317, 1.1288
• Resistance levels: 1.1356, 1.1384, 1.1414

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair on the hour time frame is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell trades from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades can be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.1317, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a buyer’s initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1384 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will be renewed.

• – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3597
• Prev Close: 1.3554
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

The emergence of the Omicron strain has caused a more cautious mood among buyers and led to a 3.7% drop in retail sales in the UK in December. The UK will release its PMI data today. Business activity data is expected to show a decline. Currently, the Bank of England is on the way to another rate hike in February.

• Support levels: 1.3551, 1.3495, 1.3471
• Resistance levels: 1.3583, 1.3611, 1.3638

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, sell deals are best to look at from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3495 or 1.3471, but only with an additional confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3638 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario will be broken.

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 114.07
• Prev Close: 113.66
• % chg. over the last day: -0.36%

In January, business activity in Japan’s manufacturing sector increased to a four-year high, indicating that output growth accelerated despite chip shortages and rising input prices. However, in the service sector, business activity dropped from 52.1 to 46.6. A drop below 50 signals a slowdown in activity.

• Support levels: 113.64, 113.25, 112.87
• Resistance levels: 113.99, 114.63, 115.04, 115.35, 115.64

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Buy deals are best to look at the lower time frames from the nearest support levels. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 113.99, but only with confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative, as the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan is now aimed at decreasing the Japanese yen.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above 114.63, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2503
• Prev Close: 1.2581
• % chg. over the last day: +0.62%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the oil prices and the dollar index. On Friday, Oil quotes fell sharply amid the sell-off on the US stock market. While analytics consider the dollar index growth, the USD/CAD quotes show the upward local trend. The central bank of Canada will hold its meeting this week, where there may be surprises in the form of an interest rate hike.

• Support levels: 1.2476, 1.2427
• Resistance levels: 1.2575, 1.2642, 1.2715

From a technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the price has reached the priority change level, and sellers’ reaction is very weak at the moment. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the buyers’ pressure is increasing. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals after the breakout of the priority change level. It is best to look for sell deals from the priority change level, but only after a new initiative of the sellers.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2575 resistance level and fixes above, the downtrend is likely to be broken.