COT Currency Charts: US Dollar Index Speculators boost bullish bets to 103-Week high

October 8, 2021

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 5th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the currency COT data this week is the US Dollar Index positioning. Speculators increased their bullish bets this week by +5,565 contracts which marked the largest one-week gain in three months. The bullish speculator position has now risen for seven straight weeks and for fifteen out of the past sixteen weeks. This bullishness has brought the current bullish standing for US Dollar Index speculators to the highest level in the past 103 weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2019.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-05-2021OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index57,1948332,02681-38,817106,791100
EUR693,59182-22,33428-8,4877330,82129
GBP182,33827-20,0186025,67645-5,65844
JPY226,37995-63,6942984,46379-20,7698
CHF55,97036-15,6794329,58664-13,90722
CAD120,16810-26,8663315,4556111,41164
AUD188,69174-89,9790108,693100-18,71410
NZD35,861168,05685-7,88618-17051
MXN168,11933-35,579033,6931001,88651
RUB52,9135820,40962-22,491342,082100
BRL22,97620-2,290661,269351,02179
Bitcoin8,88651-1,51861554096421

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,461 net contracts.


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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.23.314.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.271.23.1
– Net Position:32,026-38,8176,791
– Gross Longs:44,7151,8798,543
– Gross Shorts:12,68940,6961,752
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.0 to 14.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.010.1100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.1-21.716.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -23,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.457.213.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.658.48.6
– Net Position:-22,334-8,48730,821
– Gross Longs:196,819396,53490,564
– Gross Shorts:219,153405,02159,743
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.173.328.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.413.8-3.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,982 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.458.114.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.444.017.2
– Net Position:-20,01825,676-5,658
– Gross Longs:48,137105,89925,681
– Gross Shorts:68,15580,22331,339
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.644.943.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.43.8-6.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.977.48.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.140.117.3
– Net Position:-63,69484,463-20,769
– Gross Longs:31,569175,16018,406
– Gross Shorts:95,26390,69739,175
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.779.07.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.91.2-11.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.179.716.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.126.941.0
– Net Position:-15,67929,586-13,907
– Gross Longs:2,27444,6339,051
– Gross Shorts:17,95315,04722,958
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.0 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.664.222.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.629.7-19.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,866 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.554.428.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.841.519.3
– Net Position:-26,86615,45511,411
– Gross Longs:18,58065,33834,639
– Gross Shorts:45,44649,88323,228
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.661.364.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.318.93.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -89,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.380.37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.922.717.6
– Net Position:-89,979108,693-18,714
– Gross Longs:17,471151,50114,474
– Gross Shorts:107,45042,80833,188
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.010.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.423.35.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.937.910.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.459.910.8
– Net Position:8,056-7,886-170
– Gross Longs:17,88713,5883,702
– Gross Shorts:9,83121,4743,872
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.818.251.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.1-15.014.4

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.849.93.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.029.92.2
– Net Position:-35,57933,6931,886
– Gross Longs:77,07483,9265,540
– Gross Shorts:112,65350,2333,654
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.051.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.75.8-1.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.342.013.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.236.58.9
– Net Position:-2,2901,2691,021
– Gross Longs:10,1709,6463,064
– Gross Shorts:12,4608,3772,043
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.635.179.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.920.9-0.5

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.039.05.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.481.51.9
– Net Position:20,409-22,4912,082
– Gross Longs:29,10720,6343,092
– Gross Shorts:8,69843,1251,010
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.5 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.734.0100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.6-19.531.6

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,518 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.86.719.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.90.58.9
– Net Position:-1,518554964
– Gross Longs:5,5815991,758
– Gross Shorts:7,09945794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 113.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.292.221.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.461.4-5.9

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).