by JustForex
The European currency fell sharply after Jerome Powell’s comments on Treasury yields. The pair dropped to the lows of February. The spread in credit markets rose sharply in favor of the dollar, indicating an increased likelihood of a continuation of the southern trend.
The main scenario for EUR/USD is selling. The ADX showed a significant reaction to the decline. However, the oscillator did not reach the oversold zone. This indicates a likely continuation of the fall.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.2043, the pair may return to growth to 1.2113.
For the sterling, the situation does not look as bearish as for the euro. The pair is far from the February lows, and the price has remained in the weekly range. This indicates the presence of bulls in GBP/USD. However, the yield spread fundamentals indicate medium-term downward pressure on the pair.
The main scenario for GBP/USD is cautious selling. The ADX showed a weak reaction to Thursday’s bearish momentum. But since the price is fixed below the moving averages, and the MACD is below zero, selling becomes relevant. A stronger signal to sell will be received if the price fixes below 1.3857.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume its growth.
Despite the fall in risky assets, the dollar-yen pair showed a sharp rise following the dollar index. At the same time, a significant acceleration is observed on the graph. All technical and fundamental data indicates a reversal of the pair in the long term.
The main scenario is buying. In the short term, the pair may roll back as the ADX has entered the short-term overbought area on the H1 and H4 timeframes. The daily chart shows only the beginning of the northerly movement. In this light, selling on expectations of a correction is dangerous.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 107.37. In this case, the pair may return to a decline to 105.50.
The Canadian dollar is the only currency in the G10 group that shows the minimum decline against the dollar. Initially, the pair declined amid a sharp rise in oil prices. But the comments of the Fed chairman brought the price back to the opening of the day, and a bullish engulfing candlestick formed on the daily timeframe.
The main scenario is trading in the sideways range 1.2673 – 1.2592. The ADX stopped reacting after quick movements in both directions. The MACD is near zero and the price is at the crossover of the moving averages. The overall result is more neutral with a slight northern priority.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2673, the pair may resume growth to 1.2745. A breakdown of 1.2592 will strengthen the southern movement.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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