The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.03.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2088
• Prev Close: 1.2062
• % chg. over the last day: -0.22%

Tuesday’s bullish momentum did not continue on Wednesday. The controversy surrounding the Brexit deal has put pressure on the European currency. But at the same time, negative data from ISM and ADP lowered Friday’s expectations regarding the labor market, and the dollar also came under pressure. Accordingly, EUR/USD turned up in a narrow range, where the strengths of the bulls and bears were approximately equal.

• Support levels: 1.2023, 1.1952
• Resistance levels: 1.2113, 1.2179

The main scenario for EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range between 1.2113 and 1.2023. As a result of rapid movements in both directions within the day, the ADX fell to its lows, which indicated a lack of direction in the short term. However, selling is the priority in the medium term.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.2113, the pair may return to growth to 1.2179. A breakdown of 1.2023 will signal an increase in bearish pressure.

• – The US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3950
• Prev Close: 1.3947
• % chg. over the last day: -0.02%

The sterling situation is identical to the euro. Brexit issues and the extension of the economic aid program, which turned out to be insufficient, put pressure on the British currency. At the same time, the pressure on the US dollar allowed the pair to close near the opening price.

• Support levels: 1.3857, 1.3775
• Resistance levels: 1.3997, 1.4224

The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3857 and 1.3997. The ADX continues to decline, which indicates a halt in movement in the short term. The absence of changes on the H4 indicates a possible long-term sideways movement of the pair.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume its growth. A breakdown of 1.3857 could trigger a further decline.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 106.66
• Prev Close: 107.00
• % chg. over the last day: +0.32%

The dollar-yen renewed the weekly highs but failed to show significant growth. The bullish rally stopped after disappointing data from the US services sector. The stock market declined, and only the rise in the dollar index allowed the pair to close near 107.00.

• Support levels: 105.50, 104.92
• Resistance levels: 107.16, 107.50

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 107.16 – 106.66. In the short term, the pair may stop or go for a correction, as divergence is more and more clearly observed on the MACD. The ADX is still reacting to growth, which indicates the north direction as a priority. However, the bullish potential is fading and the overall signal is neutral.

The alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 106.66. In this case, the pair may return to a decline to 105.50. A breakout of 107.16 could indicate further growth.

• – The US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2632
• Prev Close: 1.2651
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

On Wednesday, the pair traded in a narrow sideways range, despite the strong fundamental background. Negative data in the US and the growth of oil could not significantly change the quotes. It looks like traders are waiting for the outcome of the OPEC + meeting, which will be held today in the midst of the European session.

• Support levels: 1.2592, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2763

The main scenario is trading in the sideways range between 1.2673 and 1.2592. The ADX is reacting to any northern spike, indicating the likelihood of a breakout of the upper range level. However, the MACD is near zero and the price is at the crossover of the moving averages. The overall picture is rather neutral with a slight northern priority.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2673, the pair may resume growth up to 1.2745. A breakdown of 1.2592 would strengthen the southern movement.

• – The OPEC + meeting.