The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.01.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2109
• Prev Close: 1.2121
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10%.

EUR/USD is still keeping the first resistance level from falling. However, the pair is clearly in no hurry to start growing. The US GDP data turned out rather positive overall. As a result, the Treasury yields rose slightly against German Bonds. Medium-term indicators remain on the bearish side.

• Support levels: 1.2077, 1.2059
• Resistance levels: 1.2189, 1.2222, 1.2283

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. In case of a breakthrough of the important 1.2059 level, the wave of sales can significantly gain momentum. The MACD is fixed in the negative area on the H1 time frame. The ADX is declining, showing a significant increase in potential. As long as the price stays below the moving averages, short positions will be relevant.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above the level of 1.2144, the pair may increase to 1.2222.

• – The GDP of Germany (q/q) (4q) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – German Unemployment Change (Jan) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3683
• Prev Close: 1.3716
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

The growth of the dollar puts slight pressure on the pound. Yesterday, at the first southern pullback of the greenback, sterling reached the highs of the year. It indicates the strength of the bulls, which can continue the upward trend at the earliest opportunity. Though traders still lack drivers for growth. They may appear next week after the Bank of England meeting.

• Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3744, 1.4386

The main scenario for trading GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3622 and 1.3701. The pair is trading strictly from support to resistance and runs the risk of being stuck in this range until the end of next week, as a strong news background is not expected shortly. All technical indicators are gradually reduced to zero.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3701, it is likely to return to 1.3744. A breakthrough of 1.3622 could trigger a further fall towards 1.3517.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 104.08
• Prev Close: 104.24
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

The growth of the dollar-yen currency pair continues to gain momentum. Despite a slight decline in the dollar index on Thursday, the pair was able to close in positive territory amid rising Treasury yields. The instrument continues to ignore the stock market. On the daily chart, a breakthrough of the SMA100 moving average signals the start of a deep correction.

• Support levels: 103.56, 103.32
• Resistance levels: 104.76, 105.68

The main scenario is buying on a decline. The ADX shows a slight decrease in the upside potential, and at the same time, the pair is ready to move further northward. As long as the price is above the moving averages, all specifications will indicate growth.

Alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing below 103.95. In this case, the pair may return to the previous trading range.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2799
• Prev Close: 1.2825
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

The Canadian dollar shows the greatest weakness against the US dollar among the G10 currencies. One of the growth drivers is the correction in the oil market. Brent lost just over $50 per barrel on Thursday. The daily chart showed the likelihood of a deep correction.

• Support levels: 1.2786, 1.2624
• Resistance levels: 1.2875, 1.2932

The main scenario is buying on a decline. All technical indicators are set for strong growth. The moving averages are directed sharply upward. A stop near the 1.2875 resistance and formation of a double top pattern could signal a short-term stop or a southern pullback. A stop near the 1.2875 resistance level and formation of a double top pattern could signal a short-term stop or a southern pullback.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2786, the pair may return to 1.2686.

• – Canadian GDP (m/m) (Nov) 15:30 (GMT+2).