by JustForex
On Tuesday, EUR/USD came under pressure from bears again. Against the background of the closure of the borders with the UK and the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations, the German Bonds continued to lose yield and reached -0.60%. The spread has decreased by 100 basis points over the past month against benchmark US Treasuries. The foreign exchange market started giving more signals for a mid-term correction.
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling on growth. Technical indicators have changed to the south. On yesterday’s decline, the ADX demonstrated greater bearish potential than on Monday. The MACD has consolidated in the negative zone. The moving averages have also reorganized and are in the south direction. The price movement has formed a “contracting triangle” pattern, the borders of which will lie at 1.2250 above and 1.2163 below. Withdrawal from the triangle will give a clearer signal for actions.
Alternative scenario: if the price can fix above the level of 1.2250, it is possible that the price will move further to 1.2273, and the break-through of the last point will indicate further growth.
At the end of Tuesday, the sterling had the biggest intraday losses in December. Lack of progress in negotiations between the EU and Britain does not give the bulls the opportunity to push the pair higher. Taking into account the factor of positive expectations, on which the sterling was growing, it’s likely that the instrument was in the area of overvaluation. Against this background, the southern correction may be more significant.
The main trading scenario for GBP/USD is trading in a wide sideways range between 1.3553 and 1.3287. Today’s technical indicators were stronger than those of the euro. The ADX showed a very low downtrend potential, which causes doubts concerning bears’ strength. In this case, the upward movement in the Asian session is indicated on the oscillator as the true one. The price has fixed between the moving averages SMA 50 and SMA 100. The MACD is in the neutral zone. For a total, a neutral signal is obtained.
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Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above 1.3553, the pair is likely to resume its growth. A break-through of 1.3287 will give a signal for further decline.
There have been some little changes in the currency pair since yesterday. The amplitude of oscillations decreased and the price range remained the same. Due to the lack of drivers for the growth of risky assets, it is difficult to hope for the development of corrective growth. At the same time, the main majors began to show signs of a correction, which strengthens the dollar index and pair.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range. If yesterday there was a small priority to purchases, today it has decreased. The ADX has rebuilt and indicates the growth of bears’ strength. The MACD remains near zero. The price is likely to continue fluctuating in the area of 103.26 – 103.70.
An alternative scenario assumes a break-through of 103.26 and the development of a further fall. In case of breaking 103.93, it’s likely that there will be further growth.
USD/CAD continued its northern correction on Tuesday. Oil quotes remain under pressure from the worsening situation with the coronavirus pandemic, which puts pressure on the Canadian currency. The growth of the dollar index supports the northern direction of the currency pair.
The main scenario is buying on a decline. The support and resistance levels have remained the same, as new and more distinct extremes have not been formed. The pair is still in the first upward impulse. The ADX has weakened somewhat, which indicates the likelihood of a pullback or consolidation near current levels. The price remains above the moving averages, which additionally indicates the strength of the bulls.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to return below 1.2787, the southern trend may resume.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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