by JustForex
EUR/USD on Monday managed to regain its losses and close the day with a slight plus thanks to the statements of Boris Johnson. There was a pullback with the opening of the Asian session. The bear trend did not manage to reverse the upward trend. The yield of German Bonds remains under pressure amid the closure of borders with the UK, and against this background, the pair’s further growth looks difficult.
The main trading scenario for EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range with little buying priority. Technical indicators give weak signals for growth. ADX shows low reaction to moves in both directions. MACD is back in the positive area but is holding close to zero for now. The price quickly broke through the moving averages from above, then from below, and consolidated around them. A rebound from the price range of the first half of December suggests that the bulls are still holding the pair.
Alternative scenario: if the price can consolidate below the level of 1.2177, the price may move further to 1.2124 – 1.2106. A breakdown of 1.2273 could send the pair towards 1.2414.
On Monday sterling showed high volatility (just over 300 points). The bullish engulfing candlestick was formed, which usually indicates a continuation of the upward trend on the daily chart. But caution should be exercised since sterling is susceptible to changing moods in the political arena. The Brexit talks are still in the “hard decisions” phase.
The main trading scenario for GBP/USD is trading in a wide sideways range between 1.3553 and 1.3287. The technical indicators of the sterling are slightly weaker than the euro. ADX showed a significant increase in the trend potential on a price decline. But it hardly reacted to the reverse upward movement, which may indicate growth as a false movement. The price remained fixed below the moving averages. MACD is near zero. There is a weak southern signal, the pair may take a position of waiting for drivers in one direction or another.
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Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates above 1.3553, it is likely to resume its growth. A breakdown of 1.3287 will give a signal for further decline.
On Monday, USD/JPY from the first resistance level and formed a “bearish engulfing” on the daily candle. In fact, the pair was simply correlating with the major majors, moving in the wake of the dollar index. The reaction to the falling stock indices was minimal, and the volatility still remains low.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range with little priority to buying. Within the day, a “double bottom” pattern has formed on the chart, which gives a signal to buy. But it is the only one. The rest of the technical indicators are mixed. The ADX reacts quickly to growth and decline, indicating equal strength of bulls and bears. MACD is near zero and the price is stuck near the moving averages.
An alternative scenario assumes a breakdown of 103.26 and the development of a further fall. In the case of overcoming 103.93, further growth is possible.
USD/CAD is the only monitored pair that did not retrace its trend intraday on Monday. The northerly movement remains in effect, although the long shadow above is alarming. Since the opening of the week, oil quotes have lost about $ 1.5 (-3%), which supports the bullish trend in the instrument.
The main scenario is buying. ADX confirms the growing strength of the northward movement. There was no reaction to the rollback. The moving averages SMA 50 and SMA 100 have completely rebuilt in the upward direction.
Alternative scenario: if the price can return below 1.2787, the southern trend will regain its strength.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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