by JustForex
EUR/USD is trading under slight pressure amid negative news from the Brexit talks and expectations from the ECB meeting. A significant increase in volatility is expected towards the end of the European session. Technically, the pair returned to the southern scenario. Fixation below the two moving averages SMA 100 and SMA 50 indicates the dominance of bears. Stochastic is demonstrating the continuation of the downward movement to the American session. The MACD has confirmed a downtrend.
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling on rise. Appearingly, the pair has formed a downtrend channel, but with increasing volatility, the upper and lower boundaries may be broken. It is best to look for points for selling from the upper border on the level of 1.2135, resistance – 1.2175, as well as after the breakdown of the lower border of the channel on the level of 1.2050.
Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above the level of 1.2175 on the H1 timeframe, the currency pair is likely to return to growth to 1.2270.
During the Asian session, sterling decreased amid the lack of progress in the Brexit negotiations. The price has fixed below two moving averages and signals a continuation of the decrease towards support levels. This is also demonstrated by the position of the Stochastic indicator. The MACD is in the neutral zone. Apparently, the pound will trade in a narrow sideways trend and may continue to decline later at the beginning of the European session.
The main scenario: selling on rise. Since the fundamental background and technical indicators demonstrate a predominance of bears, buying is the most dangerous. We expect both support levels to be worked out and, possibly, further downward movement.
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Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above 1.3477, we can consider selling the currency pair.
On Wednesday, the direction of the pair is expected to be northern. News from the European side pushed the dollar index to growth, and due to the positive dynamics in the credit market, the yen yielded to the dollar. A slight decline on the stock markets could not bring down the northern mood of the сcurency pair. On Wednesday, the pair confidently fixed above two moving averages.
The main scenario: buying the pair to the level of the main resistance 104.74. It is too early to talk about going beyond the limits, but the fundamental background is tuned for such a scenario in the long-term. The MACD confirms acceleration of growth. Stochastic is near the overbought area, therefore, there may be a rollback downward within the day.
An alternative scenario assumes a breakdown to 104.15 and a fall to 103.84.
On Wednesday, the pair did not manage to choose a direction. Neither the Bank of Canada meeting, nor the news about the US oil reserves could move the Canadian currency against the US dollar. There was only a slight excess of the previous day’s highs, which indirectly indicates the pair attempts to develop a correction in the future. All technical indicators are neutral.
As long as the pair remains above the historical support level, the likelihood of a northern correction remains. The safest purchases are from 1.2770 with a short stop-loss and after the breakdown of the level of 1.2835, as in this case a signal to leave the consolidation will be received.
Alternative scenario: if the price is able to break through the support of 1.2770, it is likely to continue falling down to 1.2527.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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