18 Nov

European Double-Dip Recession Inevitable

November 18, 2020

By Orbex

How Much Lower Can the Buck Go?

The US index fell further towards the 92 handle on Tuesday, as it closed 0.11% down.

October’s retail sales fell short of market forecasts, coming in at a disappointing 0.3% which was a world away from the 1.6% surge in September.

Attentions now turn to the next possible Covid-19 vaccine, with China’s Sinovac vaccine being the next to hit the headlines.

The Trump campaign hit another hurdle as the Pennsylvania Supreme Court declared there were no wrongdoings in the Philadelphia vote count.

In addition, the president sacked his cybersecurity boss for telling him that the election was not rigged.

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Euro Flirts With 1.19

The euro edged 0.10% higher yesterday as it achieved a fourth consecutive day of gains, on the back of weak US retail sales.

This is despite the eurozone being on track for its first double-dip recession in nearly a decade, as the second wave tightens its grip over the continent.

As downside risks continue to materialize and the health situation keeps worsening, it now looks evident the recovery the economy has experienced since May has ended.

With a weakened greenback in place, is this helping the sustainability of the euro?

Sterling at the Mercy of Brexit Headlines

The pound rose by 0.46% on Tuesday as the GBPUSD currency pair embraced the 1.32 handle.

Brexit talks continue to dominate as negotiations reach a breaking point. Talks are ongoing in Brussels, with the UK’s chief negotiator stating that there has been progress. However, a deal is not likely to happen this week.

Investors will be watching with a keen eye to see if a deal can be agreed upon before the end-of-year deadline. Additional tariffs on goods going back and forth from the UK and EU would push up costs for consumers.

Indices Down After Record Close

The S&P and Dow both ended yesterday’s session 0.55% and 0.47% lower after closing at record highs.

With the weakest retail sales in six months, stocks remained under pressure.

Shares of Tesla were up 9% on Tuesday afternoon, as the electric-auto maker finally got word that it would be included in the S&P 500 index as of December 21.

Gold Hangs in the Balance

The yellow metal closed 0.63% lower on Tuesday as additional headlines regarding a covid vaccination took hold.

Gold now looks to be slipping away from its $1900 target as trader and investor risk appetite waned.

API and US-Iran Tensions Halts WTI

Oil fell slightly lower yesterday as the API reported a build in crude inventories.

The black gold remained above the $41 handle despite recent US-Iran tensions, after President Trump had threatened military strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites.

A global nuclear watchdog said Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was 12 times what was permitted under a 2015 nuclear deal.

We now look to today’s EIA report for further possible support for oil.

By Orbex


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