Archive for Stock Market Ideas

5 Medium Cap Companies that made our Quarterly Watchlist

By InvestMacro Research

The fourth quarter of 2024 is more than two-thirds through and most companies have released their third-quarter results. Today, we wanted to highlight some of the top Medium Cap companies that have been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Disclaimer: The US stock markets continue to reach new all-time highs and this should always factor into the decision-making of buying any asset. Many major studies are consistently showing overvalued markets at the current time.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Medium Cap Stocks scored in Q3 2024:


Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT): Financial Services

Technically, Virtu is trading at its highest level since 2022 and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Technically, Virtu is trading at its highest level since 2022 and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Virtu Financial, Inc. (Symbol: VIRT) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. VIRT scored a 60 in our fundamental rating system on October 25th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 36 system points from our last update. VIRT is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for VIRT is Financial – Capital Markets.

Virtu has beat earnings expectations three quarters in a row, has a dividend of approximately 2.55 percent and a payout ratio of around 60 percent. The VIRT stock price has handily beat the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks — which also warrants a word of caution because the year-to-date price gain is steep at over 80 percent.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Virtu Financial, Inc., a financial services company, provides data, analytics, and connectivity products to clients worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Market Making and Execution Services. Its product suite includes offerings in execution, liquidity sourcing, analytics and broker-neutral, and multi-dealer platforms in workflow technology.

Company Website: https://www.virtu.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)18.5105.630.37
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF22.938.931.0

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX): Industrials

LPX is currently trading at its all-time highs near $120.00 per share and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

LPX is currently trading at its all-time highs near $120.00 per share and has an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (Symbol: LPX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LPX scored a 62 in our fundamental rating system on November 6th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 72 system points from our last update. LPX is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for LPX is Construction.

Louisiana-Pacific has beat earnings expectations four straight quarters and has a dividend of close to 0.88 percent with a payout ratio of 64 percent. The LPX stock price has also significantly surpassed the Industrials Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and is up close to 70 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets building products primarily for use in new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. It operates through four segments: Siding; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Engineered Wood Products (EWP); and South America.

Company Website: https://www.lpcorp.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)20.684.181.88
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI30.430.771.1

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


CONMED Corporation (CNMD): Healthcare

CNMD is trading around the $73.00 threshold currently and is significantly down from the $160.00 highs in 2022. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at just over the 50 level on the weekly time-frame.

CNMD is trading around the $73.00 threshold currently and is significantly down from the $160.00 highs in 2022. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at just over the 50 level on the weekly time-frame.

CONMED Corporation (Symbol: CNMD) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CNMD scored a 56 in our fundamental rating system on October 31st.

At time of writing, only 8.17% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 14 system points from our last update. CNMD is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for CNMD is Medical – Devices.

CONMED has beat earnings expectations three consecutive quarters and has a dividend of close to 1.08 percent with a payout ratio near 43 percent. The CNMD stock price has under-performed the Healthcare Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks by a large margin and is actually down by -33.86 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CONMED Corporation, a medical technology company, develops, manufactures, and sells surgical devices and related equipment for surgical procedures worldwide.

Company Website: https://www.conmed.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: CONMED Corporation (CNMD)17.2-32.231.46
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV24.611.650.7

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM): Financial Services

APAM is currently in an uptrend channel right under the $50 per share level with a bullish above 60 Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

APAM is currently in an uptrend channel right under the $50 per share level with a bullish above 60 Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly time-frame.

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (Symbol: APAM) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. APAM scored a 69 in our fundamental rating system on October 30th.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 19 system points from our last update. APAM is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for APAM is Asset Management.

APAM has beat earnings expectations in October after two close misses in previous quarters and has a dividend of approximately 6.7 percent with a payout ratio near 87 percent. The APAM stock price has under-performed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks but is higher by 9.62 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. is publicly owned investment manager. It provides its services to pension and profit sharing plans, trusts, endowments, foundations, charitable organizations, government entities, private funds and non-U.S. funds, as well as mutual funds, non-U.S. funds and collective trusts. It manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. The firm invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe.

Company Website: https://www.artisanpartners.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)13.527.741.79
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF22.938.931.0

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC): Technology

IDCC is currently trading at its all-time highs and challenging the $200.00 per share level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently overbought on the weekly time-frame.

IDCC is currently trading at its all-time highs and challenging the $200.00 per share level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently overbought on the weekly time-frame.

InterDigital, Inc. (Symbol: IDCC) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. IDCC scored a 67 in our fundamental rating system on November 1st.

At time of writing, only 4.74% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,674 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and stayed the same score from our last update. IDCC is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for IDCC is Software – Application.

InterDigital has surpassed earnings expectations four quarters in a row and has a dividend of approximately 0.89 percent with a payout ratio of approximately 20 percent. The IDCC stock price has far surpassed the Financial Sector benchmark over the past 52 weeks and is higher by almost 80 percent year-to-date.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

InterDigital, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops technologies that enable and enhance wireless communications in the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Europe. It provides technology solutions for use in digital cellular and wireless products and networks, including 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, and IEEE 802-related products and networks.

Company Website: https://www.interdigital.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: InterDigital, Inc. (IDCC)21.196.231.38
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK45.531.091.2

 

* Data through December 02, 2024


By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

UHS, LRCX & LDOS top latest Large Cap Stocks that made our Watchlist in October

By InvestMacro Research

The fourth quarter of 2024 is about halfway over and today we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that have recently been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist. The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm that analyzes over one thousand companies.

The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware this fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (read: this is not a timing tool!).

Disclaimer: Markets are currently at all-time highs and many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that always has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. Remember, a stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security but merely a starting point for your own in-depth analysis.

 

Here are 5 of our Top Stocks scored in October 2024:


Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS):

Leidos Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: LDOS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LDOS scored a 73 in our fundamental rating system on October 30th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 2.00% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 70 system points from our last update.

LDOS is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for LDOS is Information Technology Services.

Company Description:

Leidos Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides services and solutions in the defense, intelligence, civil, and health markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Defense Solutions, Civil, and Health.

Company Website: https://www.leidos.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Leidos Holdings, Inc. (LDOS)22.082.870.7
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK44.232.11.2

 

* Data through November 06, 2024


Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS):

Universal Health Services, Inc. (Symbol: UHS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. UHS scored a 85 in our fundamental rating system on October 25th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 0.75% of stocks have scored a 80 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 6 times and rose by 3 system points from our last update.

UHS is a Large Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for UHS is Medical – Care Facilities.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Universal Health Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates acute care hospitals, and outpatient and behavioral health care facilities. The company operates through Acute Care Hospital Services and Behavioral Health Care Services segments.

Company Website: https://uhs.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS)13.565.431.28
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV25.115.270.7

 

* Data through November 06, 2024


Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX):

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (Symbol: FIX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. FIX scored a 68 in our fundamental rating system on October 25th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.76% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 20 system points from our last update.

FIX is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for FIX is Engineering & Construction.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It engages in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of existing buildings.

Company Website: https://www.comfortsystemsusa.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX)33.3118.831.13
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI30.433.961.1

 

* Data through November 06, 2024


Lam Research Corporation (LRCX):

Lam Research Corporation (Symbol: LRCX) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. LRCX scored a 77 in our fundamental rating system on October 24th, 2024.

At time of writing, only 2.00% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 61 system points from our last update.

LRCX is a Large Cap stock and part of the Technology sector. The industry focus for LRCX is Semiconductors.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits.

Company Website: https://www.lamresearch.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)24.920.491.48
– Benchmark Symbol: XLK44.232.11.2

 

* Data through November 06, 2024


CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF):

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (Symbol: CF) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CF scored a 50 in our fundamental rating system on October 31st, 2024.

At time of writing, only 8.24% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 10,417 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 45 system points from our last update.

CF is a Large Cap stock and part of the Basic Materials sector. The industry focus for CF is Agricultural Inputs.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products.

Company Website: https://www.cfindustries.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)13.29.310.95
– Benchmark Symbol: XLB18.418.91.2

 

* Data through November 06, 2024


By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

5 Ranked Stocks that Made Our Watchlist Last Quarter

By InvestMacro Research

The fourth quarter of 2024 is under way and with the bulk of earnings reports still to come we wanted to highlight some of the top companies that had been added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist from the last quarter.

The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm that examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and we continuously update our Watchlist every quarter.

However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare always each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea.

As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results and, any stock added to our Watchlist is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our Top Stocks scored in Q3 2024:


Oshkosh Corporation (OSK):

Oshkosh Corporation (Symbol: OSK) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. OSK scored a 82 in our fundamental rating system on August 1st, 2024.

At time of writing, only 0.80% of stocks have scored a 80 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and actually decreased by -5 system points from the previous update.

OSK is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for OSK is Agricultural Machinery. The company is a designer and manufacturer of specialty vehicles, electric vehicles and intelligent products.

Company Website: https://www.oshkoshcorp.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Oshkosh Corporation (OSK)10.316.511.22
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI29.237.21.1

 

* Data through October 24, 2024


The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG):

The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (Symbol: HIG) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. HIG scored a 73 in our fundamental rating system on July 26, 2024.

At time of writing, only 2.06% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and decreased by -8 system points from our last update.

HIG is a Large Cap stock and part of the Financial Services sector. The industry focus for HIG is Insurance. The company provides diversified insurance and financial services in the US, UK and internationally.

Company Website: https://www.thehartford.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG)11.370.710.92
– Benchmark Symbol: XLF21.246.41.0

 

* Data through October 24, 2024


Novartis AG (NVS):

Novartis AG (Symbol: NVS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NVS scored a 53 in our fundamental rating system on July 19, 2024.

At time of writing, only 8.41% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 5 times and still made the Watchlist despite falling by -32 system points since our previous update.

NVS is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for NVS is Drug Manufacturers – General. The company develops and manufactures healthcare products globally.

Company Website: https://www.novartis.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: Novartis AG (NVS)23.319.380.49
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV25.318.630.7

 

* Data through October 24, 2024


EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME):

EMCOR Group, Inc. (Symbol: EME) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. EME scored a 60 in our fundamental rating system on July 26, 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.80% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 8 system points from the previous update.

EME is a Large Cap stock and part of the Industrials sector. The industry focus for EME is Engineering & Construction. EME is a fortune 500 company that provides mechanical & electrical construction as well as industrial and energy infrastructure mostly in the US and UK.

Company Website: https://www.emcorgroup.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)24.4129.861.06
– Benchmark Symbol: XLI29.237.21.1

 

* Data through October 24, 2024


PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP):

PepsiCo, Inc. (Symbol: PEP) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. PEP scored a 66 in our fundamental rating system on October 10, 2024.

At time of writing, only 4.86% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 9,639 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 2 times and rose by 28 system points from the previous update.

PEP is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Consumer Defensive sector. The industry focus for PEP is Beverages – Non-Alcoholic. The company is a major manufacturer and global distributor of numerous beverages as well as convenient foods with major brand names.

Company Website: https://www.pepsico.com


 

Asset vs Sector Benchmark:*P/E Ratio (TTM)*52-Week Price Return*Beta (S&P500)
– Stock: PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)25.56.380.54
– Benchmark Symbol: XLP27.820.110.6

 

* Data through October 24, 2024


By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security.

FRA40: Jumps on French election relief

By ForexTime 

  • FRA40 ↑ as much as 3% on Monday
  • Parties have till Tuesday evening to apply for second round
  • Second round of election on July 7th
  • Key level of interest – 7470 and 7700

FXTM’s FRA40 initially rebounded on Monday morning as investors welcomed the preliminary results of French parliamentary elections.

Although Marine Le Pen’s National Party dominated the first round, it was not enough for an outright majority in the second round scheduled for July 7th. The prospect of a hung parliament may be a market-friendly outcome despite the uncertainty it presents. Such a scenario could block Le Pen’s big spending plans that would have disregarded European Union fiscal rules and hit investor sentiment.

Note: A hung parliament is when no single political party wins a majority.

It is worth noting that all those who got votes of at least 12.5% are eligible to participate in the second round.

First round election results:

  • National Rally (far-right): 33.1%
  • New Popular Front (left-wing): 28%
  • Renaissance and allies (centrist): 20.8%
  • Republicans: 10.2%

Despite the initial positivity, European markets could remain tense ahead of the deadline on Tuesday evening for candidates to confirm whether or not they’re running.

Depending on how this plays out, it may shape expectations over what to expect in the second round of elections on Sunday 7th July.

Looking at the technical picture, we identified key levels on the FRA40 in our week published last Friday.

Prices jumped as much as 3% on Monday morning, punching above the 7700-resistance level before giving back gains. More volatility may be on the cards on Tuesday depending on how markets react to the candidates participating in round 2 of the elections.

Still, key support can be found at 7470 and resistance at 7700.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

US500: Braces for mid-week double whammy

By ForexTime 

  • US500 ↑ 13% since start of 2024
  • Index could be rocked by US CPI/Fed combo
  • Over past year Fed meeting triggered moves of ↑ 2% & ↓ 0.8%
  • Prices bullish on D1 but RSI overbought
  • Technical level – 5400

It would be a crime to overlook FXTM’s US500 on such a big day for global markets.

After hitting a new all-time high yesterday, the index could be injected with fresh volatility thanks to a rare US CPI and Fed combo.

Note: US500 tracks the S&P 500 index – the benchmark used to measure the stock performance of the largest listed US companies.

Since last Friday, we have hammered at the importance of these two events and their potential impacts on financial markets. Still, US equities continue to march higher despite the growing sense of caution. This may be based on Apple stocks surging to fresh all-time highs.

But the key question is whether US500 bulls can maintain their hunger for more gains…

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise 3.4% in May, unchanged from April. At the same time, the annual core is forecast to have cooled to 3.5% – its lowest since April 2021.

  • Should the inflation report print above expectations, this may further push back Fed cut bets – hitting the US500.

Traders are currently pricing in a 58% probability of a 25-basis point cut in September with this jumping to 89% by November.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 0.5% in a 6-hour window post-release.

A few hours after the CPI report will be the Fed decision which is widely expected to conclude with rates unchanged. However, all eyes will be on the economic projections including the “dot plot” which could potentially rock markets.

  • The new dot plot is expected to show two 25-basis point cuts in 2024 compared with the three projected in March. If the dot plot shows only one 25 basis point cut or none for this year, US equity bulls could be in trouble.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Fed has triggered upside moves of as much as 2% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the technical picture

The US500 is firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a whisker away from 70 – indicating that prices are overbought.

  • A solid breakout above 5400 could encourage a move toward the next psychological level at 5500.
  • Should 5400 prove reliable resistance, prices may slip back towards 5320 and 5270.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com