Archive for CountingPips Forex Blog – Page 45

05 Dec

Silver Speculators raise bullish bets for 4th time in 5 weeks

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Silver Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: December 01 2020

Silver Large Trader Net Positions:

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 47,892 contracts in the data reported through December 01 2020. This was a weekly gain of 2,212 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,680 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) increasing by 2,252 contracts (to a weekly total of 77,023 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) edged up by 40 contracts for the week (to a total of 29,131 contracts).

Silver speculators added to their bullish bets for fourth time in the past five weeks. The boost in positions has pushed the current bullish standing to its highest level since March 3rd. Speculative positions have now been in bullish territory for seventy-eight straight weeks, dating back to June of 2019.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 71.9 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.1
– Net Position:47,892
– Gross Longs:77,023
– Gross Shorts:29,131
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.0

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:

Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -61,885 contracts. This was a weekly change of -1,725 contracts from the total net of -60,160 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 33.7 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:70.5
– Net Position:-61,885
– Gross Longs:45,567
– Gross Shorts:107,452
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.1

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 13,993 contracts. This was a weekly change of -487 contracts from the total net of 14,480 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 21.6 percent.


Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.7
– Net Position:13,993
– Gross Longs:24,131
– Gross Shorts:10,138
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.7

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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21 Nov

US Dollar Index Speculators trimmed their bearish bets. Japanese Yen bets fall

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US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators edged their bearish net positions lower in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday November 17th. This was a weekly change of 154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,128 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) rising by 937 contracts (to a weekly total of 19,540 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a gain by 783 contracts on the week (to a total of 20,514 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators slightly reduced their bearish bets this week. The dollar index position is currently at approximately a neutral position in the big scheme of things with the net position under a thousand contracts. The price of the dollar index (DXY) has been on a downtrend after hitting a multiyear high of just about 103 in March. Since then, the dollar has dropped steadily and closed this week just below the 92.40 exchange rate.

Individual Currencies Data this week: Japanese Yen bets fall

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

  • Japanese yen bets dropped sharply this week following strong gains in previous weeks. The yen speculative positions fell by over -12,000 contracts this week after rising in the previous three weeks and by a total of +27,711 contracts over that time-frame. The gains in the yen positions had brought the November 10th level to the highest standing in the past two hundred and eleven weeks before this week’s turnaround. The yen position has now remained in bullish territory for thirty-seven weeks after turning positive in March.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (154 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (990 contracts), Australian dollar (2,597 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,151 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,087 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-1,327 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-2,051 contracts), Japanese yen (-12,227 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-940 contracts).

Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

 

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

CurrencyNet Speculator PositionSpecs Weekly Change
USD Index-974154
EuroFx133,960-1,327
GBP-19,746-2,051
JPY29,667-12,227
CHF14,924-940
CAD-20,359990
AUD-6,1232,597
NZD8,8681,151
MXN20,4092,087

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 133,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 135,287 net contracts.

 

British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level came in at a net position of -19,746 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly reduction of -2,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,695 net contracts.

 

Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of 29,667 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly decrease of -12,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,894 net contracts.

 

Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,924 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,864 net contracts.

 

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -20,359 contracts this week. This was a increase of 990 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,349 net contracts.

 

Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures equaled a net position of -6,123 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,720 net contracts.

 

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of 8,868 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 1,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,717 net contracts.

 

Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 20,409 contracts this week. This was a weekly boost of 2,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,322 net contracts.

 

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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21 Nov

WTI Crude Oil Speculators raised their bullish bets for 2nd week

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 

WTI Crude Oil Large Trader Net Positions:

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators sharply raised their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 480,811 contracts in the data reported through November 17th. This was a weekly gain of 17,273 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 463,538 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) ascending by 4,502 contracts (to a weekly total of 638,245 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) dropped by -12,771 contracts for the week (to a total of 157,434 contracts).

Crude oil speculators sharply raised their bullish positions for a second straight week and by a total of +38,351 contracts in these past two weeks. The crude bullish bets have gained for five out of the past seven weeks as well. This recent bullishness has pushed the speculator sentiment to its second highest level of the past eleven weeks at over +480,000 contracts. The current standing, however, remains under the +500,000 net contract level for a twelfth straight week following a twenty-week streak where bullish bets had stayed above that threshold through August 25th.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 44.1 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.6
– Net Position:480,811
– Gross Longs:638,245
– Gross Shorts:157,434
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.0

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:

Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -504,036 contracts. This was a weekly change of -18,543 contracts from the total net of -485,493 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 53.3 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.9
– Net Position:-504,036
– Gross Longs:660,992
– Gross Shorts:1,165,028
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.2

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 23,225 contracts. This was a weekly change of 1,270 contracts from the total net of 21,955 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 56.1 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:2.9
– Net Position:23,225
– Gross Longs:84,480
– Gross Shorts:61,255
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.6

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

 

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21 Nov

Gold Speculators raised their bullish bets to 17-week high

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Gold Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 

Gold Large Trader Net Positions:

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 251,270 contracts in the data reported through November 17th. This was a weekly gain of 11,534 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,736 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 11,182 contracts (to a weekly total of 329,698 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) declined by -352 contracts for the week (to a total of 78,428 contracts).

Gold speculators sharply raised their bullish bets this week by the most of the past seven weeks. Previously, bullish bets had fallen for three straight weeks but this week’s turnaround pushed the bullish position to the highest level of the past seventeen weeks. The gold speculator sentiment has continued to be strongly bullish as net positions have remained above the +200,000 contract level for seventy-five straight weeks, dating back to June of 2019.

The large speculators Strength Index level, the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 73.9 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.1
– Net Position:251,270
– Gross Longs:329,698
– Gross Shorts:78,428
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:

Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -294,572 contracts. This was a weekly change of -11,149 contracts from the total net of -283,423 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 22.1 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.0
– Net Position:-294,572
– Gross Longs:106,681
– Gross Shorts:401,253
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.5

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of 43,302 contracts. This was a weekly change of -385 contracts from the total net of 43,687 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 88.9 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.8
– Net Position:43,302
– Gross Longs:64,301
– Gross Shorts:20,999
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.4

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

 


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21 Nov

10-Year Treasury Note Speculators sharply boosted their bullish bets to 160-week high

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10-Year Note Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 

10-Year Note Large Trader Net Positions:

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators raised their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 152,319 contracts in the data reported through November 17 2020. This was a weekly rise of 57,703 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 30,059 contracts (to a weekly total of 587,470 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -27,644 contracts for the week (to a total of 435,151 contracts).

The 10-Year speculators sharply raised their bullish bets this week for a second consecutive week. The speculator position has now gained by a total of +158,009 net contracts in just the past two weeks and brings the current bullish standing to its highest level in the past one hundred and sixty weeks, dating all the way back to October 24th of 2017.

The large speculators Strength Index level (chart below), the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bullish-Extreme level with a score of 100.0 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction (blue line in above chart). At the extreme levels, specs are very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

TRADER TYPE DATA:SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.4
– Net Position:152,319
– Gross Longs:587,470
– Gross Shorts:435,151
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:

Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of -103,569 contracts. This was a weekly change of -50,512 contracts from the total net of -53,057 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bearish-Extreme level with a score of 7.8 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

TRADER TYPE DATA:COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:70.3
– Net Position:-103,569
– Gross Longs:2,181,114
– Gross Shorts:2,284,683
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.1

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of -48,750 contracts. This was a weekly change of -7,191 contracts from the total net of -41,559 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 63.0 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

TRADER TYPE DATA:SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.9
– Net Position:-48,750
– Gross Longs:371,509
– Gross Shorts:420,259
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.6

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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21 Nov

VIX Speculators trimmed their bearish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

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VIX Futures Sentiment: Updated Data Through: November 17 2020

 

VIX Large Trader Net Positions:

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators slightly cut back on their bearish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -87,172 contracts in the data reported through November 17 2020. This was a weekly change of 2,302 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,474 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by just 78 contracts (to a weekly total of 41,646 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -2,224 contracts for the week (to a total of 128,818 contracts).

The VIX speculative position has now seen lower bearish positions in three out of the past four weeks. Previously, bearish bets had risen above the -100,000 net contract level for three straight weeks and hit a thirty-five week high on October 20th.

The large speculators Strength Index level (chart below), the current score for traders compared to levels of the past three years, shows that specs are currently at a Bearish level with a score of 42.1 percent.

Speculators are seen as trend followers and usually trade in tandem with the price direction. At the extreme levels, specs are also very important to watch as they have a tendency to bet the wrong way (that the trend will continue to even more extreme levels).

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SPECULATORS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.5
– Net Position:-87,172
– Gross Longs:41,646
– Gross Shorts:128,818
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.0

Current Trader Positions as Percent of Open Interest:

Commercial Trader Positions:

The commercial traders position this week came in at a total net position of 90,772 contracts. This was a weekly change of 1,238 contracts from the total net of 89,534 contracts reported the previous week.

The commercials Strength Index level, a score that measures the contract levels of the past three years within a range of 0 to 100, shows that Commercials are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 57.2 percent.

At the extreme levels, commercials are very important to watch as they have a tendency to be correct at the major turning points in price trends.

TRADER TYPE DATA:COMMERCIALS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.1
– Net Position:90,772
– Gross Longs:175,978
– Gross Shorts:85,206
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.3

Small Trader Positions:

The small traders position this week totaled a net position of -3,600 contracts. This was a weekly change of -3,540 contracts from the total net of -60 contracts reported the previous week.

The small traders Strength Index level shows that smalls are currently at a Bullish level with a score of 72.3 percent.

Small traders are less important to watch (in most cases) as their numbers tend to be just a small part of the total trading open interest.

 

TRADER TYPE DATA:SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.4
– Net Position:-3,600
– Gross Longs:17,263
– Gross Shorts:20,863
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.9

 

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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01 Nov

US Dollar Speculators trimmed their bearish bets. Euro bets drop sharply

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US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators reduced their bearish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 27th. This was a weekly gain of 412 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,666 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) going up by 687 contracts (to a weekly total of 18,755 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lesser increase by 275 contracts on the week (to a total of 20,009 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators reduced their bearish positions on Tuesday as positions improved for the third time in the past four weeks. The US Dollar position currently sits in a small bearish position for a second week after bets briefly emerged into a small bullish standing on October 13th. Overall, the dollar positioning has been in bearish territory for nineteen out of the past twenty weeks following an amazing run of one hundred and nine straight weeks (from May of 2018 to June 2020) in bullish territory previously.

Individual Currencies Data this week: Euro bets drop sharply

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw just one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Euro speculators dropped their bullish bets for the fifth consecutive week this week and for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. This recent decline follows a previous and steady surge (from March to August) in bullish bets that pushed the net position to an all-time record high level on August 25th with a total of +211,752 contracts. Since the record high, bets have tumbled by a total of -56,197 contracts and has now brought the current standing to the lowest level in the past fourteen weeks, dating back to July 21st. Overall, the euro bets have now been in bullish territory for thirty-three consecutive weeks.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (412 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (3,710 contracts), Swiss franc (1,104 contracts), Canadian dollar (1,006 contracts), Australian dollar (2,135 contracts), New Zealand dollar (393 contracts) and the Mexican peso (8,104 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-10,388 weekly change in contracts) and the British pound sterling (-4,660 contracts).

Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

CurrencyNet Speculator PositionSpecs Weekly Change
USD Index-1,254412
EuroFx155,555-10,388
GBP-6,660-4,660
JPY17,8933,710
CHF15,5031,104
CAD-18,0691,006
AUD8,8902,135
NZD6,995393
MXN27,9468,104

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 155,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,943 net contracts.

 

British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level recorded a net position of -6,660 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly fall of -4,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,000 net contracts.

 

Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of 17,893 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly rise of 3,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,183 net contracts.

 

Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,503 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,399 net contracts.

 

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators came in at a net position of -18,069 contracts this week. This was a increase of 1,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,075 net contracts.

 

Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures was a net position of 8,890 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,755 net contracts.

 

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of 6,995 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly rise of 393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,602 net contracts.

 

Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators resulted in a net position of 27,946 contracts this week. This was a weekly lift of 8,104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,842 net contracts.

 

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

CountingPips Forex Blog investing
01 Nov

WTI Crude Oil Speculators pared their bullish bets for 1st time in 4 weeks

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WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 472,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 27th. This was a weekly drop of -18,258 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490,348 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) sliding by -4,919 contracts (to a weekly total of 659,778 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) advanced by 13,339 contracts for the week (to a total of 187,688 contracts).

The crude oil speculative positions fell on Tuesday following three straight weeks of rises. The pull-back in bullish positions keeps the current speculator sentiment in the tight range that has prevailed over the past six weeks from approximately +460,000 contracts to approximately +490,000 contracts. The overall standing has now been under +500,000 net contracts for nine straight weeks following a streak of twenty straight weeks above that threshold previously.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -498,804 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 12,313 contracts from the total net of -511,117 contracts reported the previous week.

 

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $39.57 which was a fall of $-1.89 from the previous close of $41.46, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing
01 Nov

10-Year Treasury Note Speculators dropped their bullish bets for 3rd time in 4 weeks

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

 

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 16,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 27th. This was a weekly fall of -6,784 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,996 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) declining by -17,476 contracts (to a weekly total of 544,854 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) decreased by a lesser amount of -10,692 contracts for the week (to a total of 528,642 contracts).

The 10-Year speculative positions slid on Tuesday and fell for the third time in the past four weeks. The net position has now fallen by -112,364 contracts over that time-frame and is currently sitting at a small bullish position of just over +16,000 contracts. The speculator sentiment has continued to hover around a small bullish now for the past twenty-one weeks after breaking a streak of 129 weeks of continuous bearish positions that dated back to December 19th of 2017.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 13,934 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 66,940 contracts from the total net of -53,006 contracts reported the previous week.

 

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $138.84 which was a rise of $0.14 from the previous close of $138.70, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing
01 Nov

Gold Futures Speculators slightly pulled back on their bullish bets

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

 

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 248,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 27th. This was a weekly decline of -970 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,604 net contracts.

The week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) decreasing by -14,143 contracts (to a weekly total of 326,063 contracts) while the gross bearish position (shorts) fell by -13,173 contracts for the week (to a total of 77,429 contracts).

The gold speculative positions dipped on Tuesday after a strong run-up that had seen bullish positions gaining in six out of the previous eight weeks. Despite this week’s slight decrease, the net positions have now added a total of +27,596 bullish bets to the overall speculator standing over the past nine weeks. The gold sentiment has continued to maintain a steady bullish standing with the net position remaining above the +200,000 net contract level for seventy-two consecutive weeks.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -296,462 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -2,338 contracts from the total net of -294,124 contracts reported the previous week.

 

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1908.80 which was a decline of $-1.60 from the previous close of $1910.40, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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