InvestMacro

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.1706 on Tuesday, weighed down by a confluence of adverse political developments. In the US, the federal government shutdown entered its seventh day, with the Senate once again failing to pass competing funding bills proposed by Democrats and Republicans.

The political stalemate deepened after Democratic leader Chuck Schumer rejected President Donald Trump’s claims that negotiations with Democrats were ongoing.

From a monetary policy perspective, recent economic data have reinforced market expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve. Traders are now almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with another expected in December.

Market participants are awaiting fresh guidance from central bank officials, including scheduled speeches by Governing Council member Stephen Miran on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday.

The US dollar found additional support from the weakness of its major counterparts. The euro was pressured by political uncertainty in Europe, while the yen softened on the election of a new, moderate prime minister in Japan, who is known to advocate for further accommodative stimulus measures.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair completed a downward impulse to 1.1652, followed by a corrective rebound to 1.1720. A subsequent decline towards 1.1685 is now forming. Later today, another rise towards 1.1723 is possible; however, the broader bearish structure suggests this will be followed by a further decline to 1.1650. A decisive break below this support level would open the potential for a move down to 1.1600, with a longer-term prospect of 1.1530. This bearish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line lies below zero and is pointing firmly downwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market completed a corrective wave towards 1.1720. We anticipate a drop to 1.1680 today, followed by a potential rise to 1.1723. The overall trajectory, however, is expected to resume downwards, targeting 1.1650. A breach of this level would signal the potential for a downward wave to 1.1600, and if that level is breached, a third wave of decline towards 1.1530. This outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently below 50 and is trending sharply downwards towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under pressure, caught between a resilient US dollar supported by Fed policy expectations and its own domestic political concerns. The technical structure remains predominantly bearish, suggesting further losses are likely if key support levels are breached.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair held its ground around 1.1726 on Friday. While volatility in the currency market has picked up significantly, the immediate economic impact of the US government shutdown remains limited. Nonetheless, the political deadlock is fuelling broader concerns over policy uncertainty, persistent inflation risks, and a weakening US labour market.

Adding to the tense atmosphere, Finance Minister Scott Bessent warned on Thursday that the funding suspension could negatively impact GDP growth. Simultaneously, President Donald Trump threatened deep cuts to federal agencies in a bid to pressure Democratic opponents.

On the monetary policy front, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan characterised the September rate cut as a justified step to shield the labour market from a sharper slowdown. However, she noted that the economic deceleration is gradual and does not yet warrant urgent further action.

Despite this cautious tone, market pricing indicates a near-certain probability of a 25 bps rate cut this month, with a second cut fully priced in by December.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD formed a consolidation range around 1.1740, which has since expanded downward to 1.1685. We now anticipate a move higher towards 1.1740, followed by a decline to 1.1707. A decisive upside breakout could propel the pair towards 1.1786, while a break below the current range would open the path for a continued downtrend towards 1.1625 and potentially lower. This bearish-leaning scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair completed a downward wave to 1.1683 and a subsequent correction to 1.1728. We now expect a further decline to 1.1670. A break below this level would activate the potential for a downward wave targeting 1.1625. A breach of this latter level could then initiate a third wave of selling towards 1.1470. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is above 80 and turning sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is currently stabilising, but remains highly sensitive to the twin forces of US political instability and shifting Fed policy expectations. The overall technical structure retains a bearish bias, suggesting that any near-term stability is fragile and likely to give way to further declines unless fundamental drivers shift significantly.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has paused its recent decline, stabilising around 147.16 on Thursday.

The yen continues to find support from its status as a safe-haven asset, with demand bolstered by a weaker US dollar amid the ongoing US government shutdown. The political impasse in Washington, which could last for at least several days, has delayed the release of critical macroeconomic data, including the key September non-farm payrolls (NFP) report.

Domestically, the yen is gaining momentum from growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could resume policy normalisation this year. Markets are currently pricing in a 40% probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate hike as early as the October meeting.

Supporting this hawkish tilt, the latest Tankan survey showed large manufacturers’ sentiment improved in the third quarter, reaching its highest level since late 2022. However, the economic outlook remains clouded by persistent pressure from US tariff measures.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming consumer confidence index, which may offer fresh clues on the economy’s trajectory.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a correction to 146.62 and is now forming a narrow consolidation range above this level. A downside breakout would likely lead to an extension of the decline towards 146.50. Conversely, an upside breakout would open the potential for a growth wave towards 148.22, to be followed by a decline back to 146.50. Once this corrective phase is complete, the stage would be set for a new upward wave targeting 151.15. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is at lows below zero but appears poised to reverse upwards.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair achieving its local downside target at 146.60 and forming a consolidation range above it. An upward breakout from this range would initiate a growth wave towards 148.22, after which a corrective decline to 146.50 is expected. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this outlook, with its signal line above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

While USD/JPY has entered a period of consolidation, the yen’s underlying drivers—safe-haven demand and BoJ policy speculation—remain potent. The technical structure suggests a near-term bounce is possible, but the potential for a resumption of the yen’s rally remains high, making the current pause a potentially temporary one.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.3445 on Wednesday, with the pound closing September with its first monthly decline against the US dollar since July.

Short-term price action remains under pressure from the looming US government shutdown, which threatens to delay the release of key US macroeconomic data, injecting uncertainty into the market.

Domestic economic figures from the UK offered a mixed picture. Second-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, matching forecasts. However, the current account deficit widened significantly to £28.9 billion, or 3.8% of GDP, up from 2.8% in the previous quarter and well beyond expectations.

The pound is also contending with substantial domestic headwinds. The UK continues to grapple with the highest inflation rate among major developed economies (around 4%) and elevated borrowing costs. Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden emphasised that inflation remains excessively high, noting two-sided risks. She warned that prices for food and services could keep inflation stubbornly elevated, despite emerging signs of a slowdown in wage growth.

Further pressure stems from fiscal policy, with Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves preparing the budget for 26th November. Tax rises are seen as almost inevitable to cover a fiscal gap estimated in the tens of billions of pounds.

In summary, the pound is caught between external risks—such as the US shutdown and global capital flows—and domestic challenges, including a high deficit, persistent inflation, and the prospect of fiscal tightening.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 1.3434. Following an upward breakout, the pair is now developing a corrective wave towards 1.3550. Once this correction is complete, we anticipate the start of a new decline towards 1.3434, with a longer-term prospect of extending the downtrend to 1.3330. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero but is rising steadily.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair forming a consolidation range around 1.3418 before breaking upwards. It is now continuing a growth wave towards a local target of 1.3490. Following this, a decline back to 1.3418 (testing it as support from above) is expected. Subsequently, another upward structure could develop, targeting at least 1.3508, with a potential extension to 1.3550. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

The pound is navigating a complex landscape of domestic economic weaknesses and external uncertainties. While a short-term technical correction is underway, the broader fundamental and technical picture suggests the downward trajectory is likely to resume after the current upward move is exhausted.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 148.49, marking a third consecutive day of declines as markets digest mixed signals from the Bank of Japan.

The recently published summary of opinions from the September meeting revealed a divided policy committee. Some members advocated for further rate hikes, assuming current growth and inflation forecasts hold. Others, however, argued for maintaining low rates to help cushion the economy from the impact of new US tariffs.

Further highlighting the internal debate, one board member emphasised a wait-and-see approach, stressing the need to monitor global trade policy, the yen’s exchange rate, and domestic price and wage dynamics. In contrast, another member noted that with over six months having passed since the last policy shift, it was time to consider another increase.

Weakening Japanese economic data added to the downward pressure. August retail sales fell 1.1%, missing forecasts for 1.0% growth and marking the first decline since February 2022. Industrial production figures also came in worse than expected.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a tight consolidation range around 148.80. Today’s downside breakout has extended the correction, with the next target at 147.72. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate a potential new growth wave towards 149.95. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero but pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair completed a decline to 148.80 and consolidated around this level. The subsequent downside breakout has confirmed the continuation of the bearish wave structure towards 147.72. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and falling sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains under pressure amid divergent signals from the BoJ and soft domestic data. While the near-term technical bias is bearish, the current decline is viewed as a correction within a broader uptrend, with the potential for a renewed upward move upon completion of the current wave.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair extended gains for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.1727. The move reflects market concerns over a potential US government shutdown and caution ahead of key economic releases due this week.

A partial shutdown of US federal agencies could begin as early as Wednesday if Congress fails to pass a funding bill before the fiscal year ends on Tuesday. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with congressional leaders in an effort to reach a compromise.

Investor attention is also focused on upcoming US data, including the September non-farm payrolls report, JOLTS job openings, the ADP private employment survey, and the ISM manufacturing index. Strong indicators last week have tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing, with markets now pricing in roughly 40 basis points of rate cuts by year-end.

Broad-based US dollar weakness has provided additional support for the euro.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD established a consolidation range above 1.1645 before breaking upward into a corrective phase. We expect the pair to advance toward 1.1730, followed by a pullback to 1.1695. A subsequent rise toward 1.1780 is anticipated, at which point the corrective potential is likely to be exhausted. A new decline toward 1.1625 may then develop. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line below zero but exiting the histogram zone—suggesting potential upward momentum toward the zero line.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the completion of a decline to 1.1645, followed by the formation of a corrective structure. The initial advance to 1.1730 appears complete. A dip toward 1.1695 is possible before another rise toward 1.1780. Once this correction concludes, a new decline toward 1.1625 is expected. A break below this level could open the way toward 1.1470. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line above 80 and turning downward toward 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD is drawing support from US fiscal uncertainty and a softer dollar, though the broader technical structure remains corrective. Traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of critical US employment and activity data, which may determine the near-term direction for the pair.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair slowed its ascent on Friday, stabilising near 149.69 – close to its lowest level in nearly two months. The yen remained under pressure from broad US dollar strength, fueled by robust economic data that tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing.

Recent figures reinforced the resilience of the US economy: weekly jobless claims fell to 218,000, while second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8% year-on-year, marking the fastest pace in nearly two years.

In Japan, data provided mixed signals. Core inflation in Tokyo held steady at 2.5% in September, matching the August reading but falling short of the 2.8% forecast. The minutes from the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting revealed that some members are inclined toward further rate hikes, contingent on aligned economic and inflation trends. While rates were held unchanged in September, two dissenting votes suggest that monetary tightening may be approaching sooner than anticipated.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed an initial advance to 149.90. The pair is now forming a consolidation range below this level. A downward breakout would likely initiate a correction towards 148.78, with a potential extension to 147.77 (testing the level from above). Once this correction concludes, a new upward move targeting 151.05 is expected to develop. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains well above zero, although a pullback towards the zero line is anticipated.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair forming a consolidation range around 148.78 before breaking upward and achieving its first target at 149.90. A new range is now forming below this peak. An expected downside breakout should trigger a correction towards 148.78. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is below 50 and falling sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is taking a breather after its recent rally, caught between a strong US dollar and growing speculation around a more hawkish BoJ. The near-term technical bias suggests a corrective pullback is likely, which could offer a more solid foundation for the next leg upward. Traders will be watching for clearer signals from both central banks to determine the pair’s next sustained move.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure, trading around 1.3460, as it contends with a mix of conflicting factors.

In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated that inflation is expected to decline next year but confirmed that the central bank’s policy will remain restrictive. He pointed to a weakening labour market and cautious consumers, whose savings are twice as high as pre-pandemic levels. Bailey acknowledged that interest rates would likely continue to fall but emphasised that the pace of easing would be strictly dependent on incoming inflation data.

Across the Atlantic, the US dollar is holding its ground following the Fed’s rate cut last week. Markets are currently pricing in approximately 43 basis points of additional easing by year-end, although there is no clear consensus on whether a move will occur at the next meeting. Recent comments from Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials consistently underscore that any further action will be data-dependent, hinging on fresh inflation and employment figures.

Consequently, the pound is weighed down by domestic economic concerns and the BoE’s cautious stance. The dollar, in turn, finds support from expectations of a gradual and measured Fed policy. This creates a stalemate marked by uncertainty, which is clearly reflected in the current range-bound dynamics of GBP/USD.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 1.3544 before breaking lower to achieve the local target of the decline at 1.3427. Today, we anticipate the development of a consolidation range above this level. An upward breakout from this range would open the potential for a corrective move towards 1.3544 (testing it as resistance from below). Following this, we would expect the resumption of the downtrend targeting 1.3366. This bearish outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is located below zero and pointing decisively downward.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair forming the second leg of a downward impulse towards 1.3422, marking a local target. Upon its completion, we anticipate a potential correction towards the 1.3544 level. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 80 and falling sharply towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is caught between a cautious BoE and a data-dependent Fed, leading to a tentative equilibrium. The technical structure leans bearish, suggesting that any near-term rebounds are likely to be corrective within a broader downtrend, contingent on upcoming economic data from both sides of the Atlantic.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair advanced to 1.1804 on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive day of gains. The US dollar faced sustained pressure as markets digested mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest rate outlook.

Several Fed members advocated for caution on further easing, pointing to signs of stabilising inflation. However, this stance was countered by new Governing Council member Stephen Miran, who warned that the central bank may be underestimating current policy tightness and risks damaging the labour market without more decisive rate cuts.

Investors are now focused on the upcoming release of the PCE price index on Friday – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – which is expected to provide critical guidance for future monetary policy.

Adding to the market’s unease are the ongoing US congressional budget negotiations. Lawmakers are working to avert a potential government shutdown by the 30 September deadline, creating a fresh layer of uncertainty.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD completed a decline to 1.1727, followed by a correction to 1.1818. The current expectation is for a resumption of the downward move towards an initial target of 1.1704. Upon reaching this level, a subsequent rebound towards 1.1800 is anticipated. This bearish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is around the zero line and pointing decisively downwards.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair completed its descent to 1.1727 and is now forming a corrective structure. Today’s price action has created an upward move towards 1.1818. From here, we expect a decline to 1.1777. A further rise to 1.1824 could then unfold, completing the corrective phase and setting the stage for a new downward wave targeting 1.1704. This outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 50 and falling sharply towards 20.

Conclusion

While the euro is capitalising on a weaker dollar driven by divergent Fed commentary and political risks, the technical structure suggests the upside may be limited. The broader trend appears poised for a resumption of declines, contingent on the key PCE data and developments in Washington.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 148.31 on Monday, extending its gains from the previous week as the US dollar strengthened across the board. The yen faced additional pressure from heightened anticipation around upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials and the release of critical US inflation data.

Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point cut – its first since December. The central bank’s projections indicated two further reductions before the end of the year.

This contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) stance. Last Friday, the BoJ held its key rate at 0.5% per annum for a fifth consecutive meeting, a decision that was squarely in line with market forecasts. In its accompanying statement, the central bank described a moderate economic recovery but pointed to persistent weak spots and warned of risks stemming from global trade policy.

In a more significant step, the regulator unanimously approved plans to begin selling ETFs and J-REITs from its vast portfolio. This detail is particularly noteworthy and can be interpreted as a cautious signal that the bank is preparing to wind down its long-standing asset purchase program.

This week, investor focus will shift to the latest PMI data and inflation figures for Tokyo, alongside the release of the minutes from the BoJ’s July meeting. These documents may provide crucial insights into the timing and nature of the regulator’s next policy steps.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY found solid support at the 147.20 level and is now developing a fresh upward move targeting 148.88. We expect this target to be tested today. Following this, a corrective pullback towards 147.20 is likely. Following this correction, we anticipate another upward move aiming for the 150.00 psychological level. This outlook is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero and pointing sharply upwards.

H1 Chart:

The H1 chart shows the pair completed an upward move to 148.23, followed by a correction to 147.20. The current momentum is building for a further advance towards 148.88. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback towards 147.20 is possible. The broader upward trajectory is then expected to resume, with a minimum target of 150.00. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 and rising firmly towards the 80 level.

Conclusion

The yen remains under significant pressure, caught between a resilient US dollar and the Bank of Japan’s cautious, gradual approach to policy normalisation. The path of least resistance for USD/JPY remains higher, contingent on this week’s key data releases reinforcing the current fundamental and technical picture.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.