InvestMacro

by JustForex

Weaker-than-expected inflation data eased concerns concerning the need to scale back the Fed’s stimulus program. After the release of the report, the growth of Treasury yields stopped, and at the end of the American session, the yield fell to 1.50%. Cyclical stocks continue to grow amid expectations that the economic recovery will accelerate following the entry into force of the stimulus package from the US government.

The consumer price index, excluding food and fuel, increased by 0.1% compared to January. The annual rate is kept at 1.3%. The general CPI increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month and by 1.7% from a year earlier.

Against the background of low inflation rates, the stock market’s growth resumed. Dow Jones has updated its annual highs. Asian stocks followed the US stocks. China’s CSI 300 has indicated the largest gain in two months. S&P 500 futures continue to rise in the European session and are already close to this year’s records.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada left monetary policy unchanged. Interest rates and asset purchases remain the same. In Wednesday’s statement in Ottawa, there is a promise not to raise interest rates on loans until the damage from the pandemic is completely reversed. Also, the monetary regulator stressed that the labor market is still far from recovery.

There are no changes in the statement after the last meeting of the Bank of Canada in January, which is slightly contrary to market expectations. According to economists, the expected rapid rebound of the economy this year may lead to a reduction in asset purchases by the monetary regulator. According to the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the signal for a reduction in the volume of stimulus measures will still be received at its April meeting when the quarterly forecasts will be updated and a press conference will be held.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,923.62 +27.12 (+0.70%)

Dow Jones 32,297.02 +464.28 (+1.46%)

DAX 14,539.15 -1.10 (-0.01%)

FTSE 100 6,733.65 +8.05 (+0.12%)

USD Index 91.580 -0.248 (-0.27%)

• – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) at 14:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – ECB press conference at 15:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the situation hasn’t changed much. After finishing the uptrend and then reaching 23.6% fibo, GBPUSD is starting a short-term pullback, which may be followed by a further decline towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.3642, 1.3459, and 1.3273 respectively. A breakout of the high will result in a further uptrend towards the long-term fractal high at 1.4376.

The H1 chart shows an ascending correctional movement after a convergence on MACD, which has already reached 23.6% and may later continue towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.3954, 1.4010, and 1.4064 respectively. A breakout of the low at 1.3778 will result in a further mid-term downtrend.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after entering the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 129.16 and 130.43 respectively, EURJPY is forming the Triangle correctional pattern. Possibly, the price may complete this correctional movement by breaking the pattern to the upside. After that, the instrument may continue trading within the uptrend to reach 76.0% at 131.95.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current correction. The first descending wave couldn’t reach 38.2% fibo at 128.11 but the rising structure that followed also failed to update the high at 129.98. In this case, the market may start a new decline to reach 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 127.54 and 126.96 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.7132; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.7140 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6965. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7205. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7295. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the pattern’s downside border and fix below 0.7095.

USDMXN. “US Dollar vs Mexican Peso”

USDMXN is trading at 21.26; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 21.45 and then resume moving upwards to reach 22.05. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 20.50. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 19.65.

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1870; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.1895 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1675. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1920. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2010.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1847
• Prev Close: 1.1900
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

The European currency has regained some of the losses incurred on Tuesday within the expected technical pullback. This week, investors await the ECB’s decision on the further stimulus of the Eurozone economy and the need to put pressure on bond yields. In this light, the growth of the euro may be limited.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1799, 1.1746
• Resistance levels: 1.1952, 1.2113

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. The ADX is reacting to any southern price movement, which indicates the likelihood of a resumption of the decline soon. After the pullback, there is a slight decrease in bearish pressure, which may signal a short-term stop in the pair. But as long as the price stays below the moving averages, selling remains relevant.

Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above the level of 1.1952, the pair may reach the 1.2113 level.

News feed for 2021.03.10:

• – The US Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) (Feb) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3818
• Prev Close: 1.3885
• % chg. over the last day: +0.48%

The sterling has shown about the same pullback as the euro, which indicates the absence of strong drivers for the price movement in either direction. But the British currency still looks stronger than the others. New OECD forecasts released on Tuesday show an improvement in economic growth expectations by 0.9% to 5.1% in 2021.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3775, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3924, 1.3997

The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3924 and 1.3775. A decline in the Asian session has triggered a strong ADX reaction, which may signal a resumption of southward direction. But the rest of the indicators point to flat. Another important detail is that the price has stopped near the SMA 50 moving average. This casts doubt on the continuation of the pair’s fall.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3924, it may resume its growth. A breakdown of 1.3775 could trigger a further decline.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 108.87
• Prev Close: 108.47
• % chg. over the last day: -0.37%

The decline in Treasury yields and the technical pullback of the dollar index put downward pressure on the pair. At the same time, a bearish engulfing candlestick has formed on the daily chart, which may signal the beginning of a deep correction. However, the fundamental background may prevent further decline in the dollar index. The expected US inflation data may support dollar bulls.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 107.08, 106.12
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is cautious buying. The pullback on Tuesday did not affect the technical indicators of the northern impulse. The price holds above the moving averages, while the ADX only reacts to price increases. These are all signs of the presence of bullish power in the pair.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.36. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08.

News feed for 2021.03.10:

• – The US Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) (Feb) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2661
• Prev Close: 1.2636
• % chg. over the last day: -0.20%

USD/CAD continues to remain in a narrow sideways range. The intraday price movement leaves long shadows in both directions, which is a sign of a flat. But today the pair may get out of the narrow range after the publication of the decision of the Bank of Canada.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2592, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2845

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2745 and 1.2592. None of the indicators signal the beginning of any movement in the medium term. The MACD is near zero, and the price shows frequent breakouts of the moving averages. This indicates the continuation of trading in a narrow sideways range.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2745, the pair may resume growth to 1.2845. A breakdown of 1.2592 will resume southward movement.

News feed for 2021.03.10:

• – The US Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) (Feb) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

After a four-day rise of the dollar, the foreign exchange market began to show a correction tendency. Against the backdrop of falling oil prices, the government bonds yield declined. American Treasuries stabilized near 1.55%, which led to a slight pullback of the dollar index. At the same time, the 2-year US bonds yield is indicating an upward tendency, remaining slightly above 0.15%.

The Nasdaq 100 gained 4% amid prices leap of some of the most expensive stocks, such as Tesla Inc., which increased by 20%. The resumption of the bullish rally is based on optimism about economic growth. On Tuesday, OECD released its updated forecasts, which boosted the need for risky assets. According to the organization, the US economic recovery, boosted by President Joe Biden’s stimulus package, will help to accelerate the global economic recovery.

The global growth forecast for 2021 has been revised from 4.2% to 5.6%. For the United States, the expected figures were twice as high as in December forecasts – 6.5%. The OECD models are based on the assumption that the US government stimulus measures will increase the volume of production by about 3-4%, which will add 1% to the total world production.

But economic growth is expected to be unbalanced. OECD reduced growth estimates for European countries. For Germany, estimates of growth declined by 0.2%, for France – by 0.6%, and for Italy – by 1.0%. OECD forecasts for this and the next year assume that the economies of Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom will not make up for GDP losses even by the end of 2022. Trade Department data that was released on Tuesday shows that Eurozone GDP decreased by 0.7% in the last three months of 2020, which is 0.1% more than it was previously calculated.

The market will now shift its focus to central banks meetings from Tokyo to Ottawa. The decision of the Bank of Canada is expected to be published today, and after that, the investors will look forward to the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Against this background, volatility can gradually increase.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,871.62 -1.63 (-0.04%)

Dow Jones 31,832.74 +30.30 (+0.10%)

DAX 14,456.05 +18.11 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 6,702.04 -28.30 (-0.42%)

USD Index 92.093 +0.129 (+0.14%)

• – US Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) (Feb) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the correction continues. While testing the support area, the asset has formed several reversal patterns, including Inverted Hammer. At the moment, EURUSD is reversing and may later resume growing towards the resistance area. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.1930. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may continue falling to reach 1.1775 without any corrections.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hanging Man, while testing the resistance level. Judging by the previous movements, one may assume that the asset may reverse and start a new pullback. In this case, the correctional target is the support area at 108.50. After that, the instrument may rebound from this level and resume trading upwards. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 109.95 without reversing and correcting.

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset continues trading close to the support level. After forming several reversal patterns there, such as Inverted Hammer, EURGBP may reverse and form a slight pullback. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance area at 0.8620. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may continue falling to reach the downside target at the next support level at 0.8525 without reversing and correcting.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is forming a new consolidation range above 1.1840. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards with the first target at 1.1983.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is consolidating around 1.3830. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow to break 1.3895 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1.4000.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is forming a wide consolidation range around 74.00. If later the price breaks this range to the downside at 73.50, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 72.50; if to the upside at 74.74 – resume growing to reach 75.50.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After extending the ascending wave up to 109.20, USDJPY is expected to fall towards 108.10, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and continue trading downwards with the first target at 106.90.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has completed the ascending structure towards 0.9370 and may later fall to reach 0.9250, thus forming a new consolidation rang between these two levels. After that, the instrument may break the range to the downside and resume trading downwards with the first target at 0.9131.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating below 0.7719. Possibly, the pair may expand the range down to 0.7600. Later, the market may break the range to the downside and form one more descending structure with the target at 0.7425.

BRENT

Brent has finished the correction at 67.67. Possibly, today the asset may later grow to break 70.10 and then continue trading upwards to reach 73.10. However, if the price falls and breaks 67.50, the market may resume falling with the target at 62.50.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still falling. Today, the metal may reach 1673.00 and then start a new growth towards 1707.00, thus forming a reversal pattern not far from these two levels. Later, the market may start a new growth with the target at 1744.55.

S&P 500

After completing the ascending wave at 3879.0, the S&P index is expected to correct towards 3792.2, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 3973.0; if to the downside – start a decline to reach 3660.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1917
• Prev Close: 1.1846
• % chg. over the last day: -0.60%

The European currency has dropped below 1.1952 for the first time since February 5, as the dollar is rapidly growing after the past week’s events. The fundamental background is putting significant pressure on the pair. The German-US 10-year bond yield spread fell to -184.8%, 200 basis points higher than in February.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1799, 1.1746
• Resistance levels: 1.1952, 1.2113

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. The ADX shows strong bearish pressure on higher timeframes H4 and D1. There is a slight decrease in pressure on H1, which may signal a slight pullback. This is also indicated by the MACD, showing a divergence. But the main direction will remain south as long as the price is below 1.1952.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1952, the pair may return to growth up to 1.2113.

News feed for 2021.03.09:

• – The Eurozone GDP (q/q) (4q) at 12:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3814
• Prev Close: 1.3817
• % chg. over the last day: -0.02%

The sterling is showing a less rapid decline against the dollar than the euro. The expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Bank of England are approximately equal to those of the Fed. Investors are betting on the completion of the easing policy, while the option contracts for tightening are growing. This provides some support for the British currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3775, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3869, 1.3997

The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3869 and 1.3775. The ADX declined after Monday’s sideways movement. The MACD dropped to zero. At the same time, the price is close to the moving averages. This indicates that the decline has stopped, but the medium-term direction remains south.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3869, the pair may resume its growth. A breakdown of 1.3775 could trigger a further decline.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 108.34
• Prev Close: 108.88
• % chg. over the last day: +0.50%

Fundamental factors point to further growth of the pair in the medium term, but in the short term, there are factors that can provoke a temporary pullback. The yield on 10-year US bonds fell below 1.60%, while the stock market is below February values.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 107.08, 106.12
• Resistance levels: 109.34, 109.86

The main scenario is cautious buying. In the short term, the pair may pull back, as the ADX began to decline after hitting the short-term overbought area. The MACD shows divergence. These are initial signs of an impending southern pullback, but buying on a decline looks safe now.

An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 107.95. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08.

News feed for 2021.03.09:

• – The GDP of Japan (q/q) (4q) at 01:50 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2652
• Prev Close: 1.2662
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08%

This currency pair continues to remain in a narrow sideways range. Despite the pullback in the oil market, the oil price remains above the February highs. This is supporting the Canadian currency. At the same time, the growth of the US dollar prevents the pair from falling. As a result, a weekly flat is observed.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2592, 1.2467
• Resistance levels: 1.2745, 1.2763

The main scenario is trading in the sideways range between 1.2673 and 1.2592. The ADX stopped reacting to any price change. The MACD is near zero, and the price is between the moving averages. This indicates the continuation of trading in a narrow sideways range.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2673, the pair may resume growth to 1.2745. A breakdown of 1.2592 will strengthen the southern movement.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.