InvestMacro

by JustForex

On Tuesday, Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Germany will stop using the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine for people under 60 starting from Wednesday, after the appearance of several new cases of blood clots. There was a policy change after the publication of new data on potential side effects approved by regional ministers of health. This is another situation that will impact the imports of Astra and another threat to Europe’s vaccination program, which is already hampered by supply delays, controversy, and political struggles.

Germany’s Independent Vaccination Committee has announced that only older people should be vaccinated with Astra, as rare blood clotting occurs predominantly in recipients who are younger than 60 years.

Against this background, the growth of the stock market stalled, bonds yield retreated from their highs and the euro demonstrated the largest decline among all major currencies. Investors are assessing the possible economic disturbance from a further slowdown in vaccination rates. Nevertheless, benchmark US Treasuries are above 1.70%, still indicating confidence that the global economy will recover soon.

An additional driver of the dollar’s growth was the publication of data on consumer confidence in the United States. The Conference Board index rose to 109.7 from the revised value of 90.4 in February, according to a report that was released on Tuesday. It was the strongest monthly gain in nearly 18 years and surpassed the most optimistic forecasts in the survey.

Household prospects have improved as millions of people have been vaccinated against Covid-19 and restrictions on doing business are recalling. Against this background, the dollar index exceeded the highs on November 12, 2020, while gold fell to the lows of the current month and is trading around $1,680 per troy ounce.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,944.12 -3.63 (-0.09%)

Dow Jones 33,066.96 -104.41 (-0.31%)

DAX 15,008.61 +190.89 (+1.29%)

FTSE 100 6,772.12 +35.95 (+0.53%)

USD Index 93.332 +0.011 (+0.01%)

• – China Manufacturing PMI (Mar) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK GDP (q/q) (4q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Germany Unemployment Change (Mar) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone CPI (y/y) (Mar) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

For over a year now, the CAD has been gaining against its southern neighbor.

Part of that has been because the USD got weaker as safe-haven flows diminished. But it seems that the CAD reached its best performance back in mid-March.

Since then, it has been somewhat weaker, and is poised to leave the month with little changed.

Has the CAD touched the bottom?

Another factor in the mix is that oil reached its most recent peak back on March 5th. And it has been on the backfoot through most of the month.

That is even including the disruption in the Suez Canal. (Though most crude transport in that region is mainly for Europe, and represents around 3% of global transportation.)

Another problem facing Canada is the return of Covid cases. While infection rates have gone down in the US, the world is facing a resurgence of cases in a potential “third wave”.

Canada is facing a similar problem, with total case numbers nearly double what they were at the start of the month (though still off the winter highs).

Canada following Europe?

Some experts have suggested a pattern.

Strick lockdowns slow the spread of the virus, which reduces the strain on medical facilities and deaths in the short term. But, the country then can’t come out of the lockdown without a spike in cases, because there isn’t much immunity in the population to slow the spread.

The solution, of course, is to secure immunity through vaccination.

But many countries that have opted for strict lockdowns have been slow to roll out vaccinations, and that includes Canada. So far, less than 10% of the population has been vaccinated, putting the country in the same situation as continental Europe.

Or, sort of. Europe has domestic production of vaccines. Canada, on the other hand, has to import all of its doses. With the US focusing on vaccinating its own population first, Canada has tried to import vaccines from elsewhere.

Expectations are for the US to reach its primary vaccination goal by May. And, presumably, more vaccines would become available for export to Canada from June.

What we are looking for

With lagging vaccination roll-out, expectations are for Canada to remain behind the UK and US in its reopening. In fact, there is potential for a re-application of lockdowns in the near future.

The lack of economic liftoff could keep the CAD under pressure as the situation in March and April might be more similar to the start of the year.

Projections for the January Canadian Monthly GDP indicate a further acceleration to 0.5% monthly, compared to 0.1% recorded in December.

We should remember that was still when the country had lockdowns, which have been eased since then. Therefore, Q1 GDP might show faster growth.

By Orbex

By Orbex

USOIL sees bearish momentum stalling

WTI climbed back in anticipation of extended production cuts by OPEC+ in their upcoming meeting in April. The pullback would be temporary as an RSI divergence showed a loss in the sell-off.

Following a rebound from the support at 57.20, an RSI double top in the overbought area suggests that the US crude has been consolidating in search of momentum.

The latest breakout above the psychological level at 62.00 is a confirmation that buyers have regained control and the price could be on its way to 65.

USDCAD recovers towards supply area

The recent retreat in oil prices has weighed on the loonie while the US dollar kept the high ground across the board. The pair is grinding higher towards the supply zone near 1.27.

However, selling pressure is likely to intensify as the US dollar tests the 20 and 30-day moving averages on the daily chart, within a year-long downtrend.

1.2540 is the immediate support and a bearish breakout could further depress the price action.

To the upside, 1.2680 is the hurdle to lift before the bulls could press for a reversal.

US 30 tests a record high

Stock markets recouped losses from previous choppy sessions as investors saw the dip as an opportunity.

After rallying above the former resistance at 32500, the Dow Jones is making an attempt at the previous high at 33250. A bullish breakout could extend the rally to new record highs.

While market sentiment remains positive, an overbought RSI could prompt a pullback driven by profit takings.

The demand area between 32500 and 32700 could see strong buying interest if the index cools off.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset continues moving downwards. While testing the support area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including Doji and Hammer. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and form a pullback towards the resistance area. In this case, the correctional target may be at 1.1825. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may continue falling to reach 1.1717 without reversing and correcting.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, such as Harami, while testing the support level. Judging by the previous movements, one may assume that the asset may reverse and resume moving upwards. In this case, the upside target is the resistance area at 110.60. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may fall to return to 109.25 before resuming the ascending tendency.

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset continues trading close to the support level. After forming several reversal patterns there, such as Hammer, EURGBP may rebound from the support level and form a slight pullback. In this case, the correctional target may be the resistance area at 0.8600. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may return to 0.8500 without reversing and correcting.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD continues consolidating above 1.1761 without any particular direction. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range down to 1.1751 and then start another correction towards 1.1846. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 1.1707.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending structure at 1.3754, GBPUSD is expected to resume growing and reach 1.3800. After that, the instrument may start another decline with the target at 1.3708 or even 1.3664.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After rebounding from 76.12, USDRUB is still falling towards 75.00 and may later grow to reach 75.70, thus forming a new consolidation range around the latter level. According to the main scenario, the price may break the range to the downside and resume falling with the target at 74.50.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After breaking the consolidation range to the upside, USDJPY is still moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may extend this wave up to 110.08 and then resume trading downwards to break 109.40. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the first target at 108.70.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the correction at 0.9370, USDCHF is is expected to form one more ascending structure to reach 0.9436 and then start a new decline with the target at 0.9340.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed the correction to test 0.7644 from below. Possibly, today the pair may grow to reach 0.7700 and then fall towards 0.7515. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 0.7644 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 0.7450.

BRENT

Brent is still consolidating around 64.00. Possibly, the asset may expand the range up to 65.50 to test this level from below or even extend this correction towards 67.40. Later, the market may form a new descending wave with the target at 60.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1721.44, Gold is still falling. Possibly, today the metal may reach 1697.65 and then form one more ascending structure to return to 1721.44. Later, the market may start a new correction towards 1687.90 and then resume growing with the short-term target at 1776.08.

S&P 500

The S&P index is still moving upwards. Possibly, the asset may reach 4000.0 and then extend this structure up to 4040.0. After that, the instrument may resume falling to break 3946.1 and then continue the correction with the target at 3861.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1792
• Prev Close: 1.1764
• % chg. over the last day: -0.24%

On Monday, the euro completely leveled the entire Friday growth. The price closed at last week’s lows, which indicated the likelihood of further decline. Positive expectations for the US labor market and negative sentiment in Europe due to new quarantine measures put pressure on the pair.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1746, 1.1688
• Resistance levels: 1.1889, 1.1990

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. There are few important events on the economic calendar today, so low volatility is expected. Technical indicators still show the likelihood of the continuation of the smooth downtrend. The ADX continues to show a subtle reaction at the minimum price decline.

Alternative scenario: if the price gains a foothold above the level of 1.1795, the pair may start a corrective rise to 1.1889 or higher.

News feed for 2021.03.30:

• – The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (Mar) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3782
• Prev Close: 1.3758
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17%

The sterling showed higher volatility than the euro on Monday. The growth that took place during the European session completely vanished later in the American session. The price bounced off the moving average on the daily chart, and a bearish engulfing candlestick formed, indicating strong bearish pressure.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3610
• Resistance levels: 1.3812, 1.3846

The main scenario for trading GBP/USD is selling. The technical indicators have changed completely. The ADX has shown a strong reaction to the decline. But the price stays between the moving averages, which may indicate the development of a sideways trend. Based on a combination of factors, there is a moderate southern signal.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3812, the pound may resume its growth.

News feed for 2021.03.30:

• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 109.74
• Prev Close: 109.80
• % chg. over the last day: +0.05%

In the dollar-yen pair, volatility has eased slightly, but the bullish sentiment remains strong. The fundamentals of the stock market’s growth are still solid, and the dollar is supported by rising bond yields and the expectation of faster economic growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 109.38, 108.35
• Resistance levels: 110.32, 110.71

The main scenario is buying. The ADX on the H1, the H4, and the D1 timeframes shows the growth of bullish pressure, but the upside potential is slightly reduced. A divergence has formed on the MACD, and this is the first signal for an impending correction. But as long as the price is above the moving averages, buying is safe.

An alternative scenario implies price fixing below 109.38. In this case, the pair could drop to 108.35.

News feed for 2021.03.30:

• – The US CB Consumer Confidence Index (Mar) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2571
• Prev Close: 1.2587
• % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

The Canadian dollar lost the least among the G10 currencies against the US dollar. Continued growth in oil prices ahead of the OPEC + meeting puts pressure on the pair. The daily chart shows that strong resistance has formed, which could trigger a southern pullback or a renewed decline.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2574, 1.2446
• Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2745

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2546 and 1.2629. The ADX fell to its minimum values, and the MACD is at the zero level, which indicates the development of a sideways movement. Since the price bounced twice from the resistance of 1.2629, the likelihood of a correction increased.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2546, the pair may resume its southern movement to 1.2466.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By Orbex

USDJPY accelerates rally

The US dollar climbs as the US economy is gaining steam while other parts of the world face new Covid restrictions.

The pair has shot up to last June’s high at 109.85 after it broke out of the consolidation range under 109. The bias remains strongly bullish, though an overbought RSI would suggest a temporary pullback as traders take profit.

In that case, the rising trendline and 20 and 30-hour moving averages would become the demand zone. A deeper retracement may find support from the former resistance at 109.20.

XAUUSD awaits breakout catalyst

A firm US dollar is weighing on gold as Treasury yields hold ground. The recovery stalled after the price broke below the rising trendline, denting the optimism for a swift rebound.

The precious metal is likely to stay range-bound until a catalyst, be it fundamental or technical, triggers a breakout.

1718 is a key support and a bearish breakout could deepen the correction towards 1700.

To the upside, bulls will need to remove 1745 to bring back confidence. After that, an extended rally may carry the price to 1780.

GER 30 surges to new high

Equity markets recovered swiftly after lower-than-expected US personal consumption expenditure quelled the fear of reflation.

The DAX has bounced off the key short-term support at 14430 to challenge the all-time high at 14800.

Solid momentum above a bullish MA cross confirms that buyers are still in control of the price action. A close above 14800 may convince more trend followers to join in and push the index higher.

To the downside, 14590 would be the immediate support for the RSI to cool off.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the situation hasn’t changed much since last Monday. After reaching 23.6% fibo, XAUUSD is still moving there and forming the consolidation range. In this case, both upward and downwards scenarios are possible. The first one implies a further ascending correction towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1785.00 and 1818.15 respectively. The second scenario suggests a new descending impulse and a breakout of the low at 1676.78. Later, the market may continue falling to reach its mid-term target, which is 50.0% fibo at 1617.50.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current short-term correction after a divergence. At the moment, the asset is trading between 23.6% and 38.2% fibo and may soon resume falling towards 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% fibo at 1716.09, 1706.85, and 1695.75 respectively. The resistance is the local high at 1755.52.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The daily chart shows that USDCHF continues the ascending tendency after completing a short-term pullback. After breaking 38.2% fibo, the asset is heading towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 0.9496 and 0.9672 respectively. The key support is the low at 0.8758.

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the previous local high at 0.9376, the pair is heading towards 50.0% fibo at 0.9496. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD, which may indicate a new pullback after the price reaches its target. The correctional targets may be 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 0.9348, 0.9256, and 0.9183 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.