Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 275

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.05.25

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2179
  • Prev Close: 1.2216
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.30%

The situation with the EUR/USD currency pair has not changed much. The price is trading in a wide flat with the range of 1.2168-1.2243. The US Treasury Department is planning a Treasury bond redemption today, which may ultimately affect the weakening of the dollar index and the strengthening of the European currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2168, 1.2138, 1.2115, 1.2074, 1.2026, 1.2002, 1.1957
  • Resistance levels: 1.2243

The trend is still bullish. The price is above the change priority level of 1.2138. At the moment, the price is in front of the upper border of the corridor, but the MACD indicator is not active. Under such market conditions, traders can look for both buying from the lower border of the corridor and selling from the upper border of the flat range.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2138 support level and fixes below, the general uptrend is likely to be broken.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.05.25:
  • – German Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.4147
  • Prev Close: 1.4153
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

At the moment, the British pound is strongly correlated with the euro. The situation with the GBP/USD currency pair is symmetrical to EUR/USD. The price is trading in the middle of a wide flat with a range of 1.4110-1.4207. Business activity statistics in Britain are positive, so investors expect the continuation of the uptrend.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.4110, 1.4075, 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
  • Resistance levels: 1.4207

The trend remains bullish. The price is above the moving average. The MACD indicator has become inactive. It is recommended for traders to look for long positions from the lower border of the range or look for sell positions from the resistance level of 1.4207, where sellers hold the defense well.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.4075 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 108.88
  • Prev Close: 108.76
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The psychological resistance level of 109 along with the moving line pushed the price lower. The price is slowly descending towards the nearest support level. If the dollar index continues to fall, the price of USD/JPY will also go down. However, the macro statistics on business activity in Japan are still very weak.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 108.66, 108.44, 108.19, 107.77, 107.47, 107.04
  • Resistance levels: 109.00, 109.40, 109.64, 109.95, 110.51

On the H1 timeframe, the trend remains bearish, and the price is trading below the moving average. The MACD indicator is still inactive. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for sell positions from the resistance levels. It is also possible to consider long positions, but only within an uptrend on the lower timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 109.40, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2064
  • Prev Close: 1.2043
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.17%

The USD/CAD currency pair has formed a narrow flat, with sellers slowly moving the price lower to the support level of 1.2048. Considering the background of the dollar index fall, the downtrend may strengthen again.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2048, 1.1944
  • Resistance levels: 1.2093, 1.2137, 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519

The price is trading below the moving average, and the trend remains bearish. However, there are signs of divergence on the MACD indicator. At the moment, the best strategy for the USD/CAD currency pair is to wait. It is possible to sell within the trend, if the price consolidates below the support level of 1.2048 again. It is too early to look for long positions, since there is no significant initiative from the buyers.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, a local corrective uptrend is likely to form.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Technical Outlook: G10 Currencies On Standby

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

It was a dull start to the trading week for G10 currencies.

Other than the flicker of action witnessed on the Norwegian Krone and New Zealand Dollar, it pretty much felt like watching paint dry on a rainy day.

After looking at the paltry intraday gains (below), we decided to identify potential technical setups in the week ahead.

As of writing,

One thing that’s strikes out is the fact that all currencies in the G10 space have appreciated against the greenback today.

The not so mighty dollar remains pressured by inflation fears and is struggling to push back above the psychological 90.00 level. Sustained weakness below this point could open the doors towards 89.30.

EURUSD breakout on the horizon?

We see a classic breakout setup forming on the EURUSD.

Support can be found at 1.2170 and resistance around 1.2240. A solid breakout and daily close above 1.2240 could signal a move towards 1.2300. Alternatively, a decline below 1.2170 could pave a path towards 1.2060.

GBPUSD gearing up for a push higher?

It’s safe to say that the GBPUSD is firmly bullish on the daily charts.

There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades above zero. Should 1.4100 prove to be reliable support, this could provide a platform for bulls to conquer the 1.4200 resistance level. A solid daily close above this point could pry open the doors towards 1.4240 and levels not seen since April 2018 at 1.4300.

One thing to keep in mind is the fact the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly approaching overbought territory. This may instil bears with fresh inspiration if 1.4100 proves to be unreliable support.

USDNOK knocks on 8.3850’s door

If one word could be used to describe the USDNOK’s movements over the past few weeks, the best fit would be choppy.

We can see strong resistance around 8.3850 and support at 8.1700. A decisive breakout and daily close above 8.3850 could result in a move towards 8.4700.  Prices are likely to drift lower if 8.3850 proves to be reliable resistance.

USDJPY below 50-day SMA

Prices are trading below the 50-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD is in the process of crossing to the downside. Bears need to secure a solid daily close below 108.30 to encourage a decline towards 107.67. A rebound from the 108.30 level could inject bulls with enough confidence to elevate prices back towards 109.30.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

US Clients Can Still Avail of Top Quality Online Forex Broker Services

Are you a US citizen and looking for Forex brokers to deal with? If you are, there are plenty of US brokers accepting US clients. But do they all accept US clients? Or are some US brokers still not accepting US clients? This is the question that many newbie Forex traders ask when looking for a US broker.

The question of whether brokers still accepting US forex clients has come up many times in forex forums recently. There have been questions raised about whether brokers are still accepting US clients, and the answer is yes.

One reason why forex brokers are still accepting US clients is that it’s still a pretty lucrative market. Forex is one of the biggest markets, with a daily turnover of over a Trillion dollars. There are lots of new brokers coming online every day – the average person just won’t have the time to visit all the forex brokers personally. So many US citizens want to take advantage of this opportunity and start investing, but they don’t know where to start. This is where the internet comes in handy.

Internet Trading Brokers:

Internet trading brokers can be found everywhere on the internet. You can start by going to Google or Yahoo and type “trading brokers” and you’ll find a bunch of them. Some of them will be US companies, but a lot of the best forex brokers around are offshore. If you research carefully you can find a brokerage firm offshore that offers the best forex trading opportunities to US citizens. Start looking now, before things get changed!

Maximize Sales and Profits:

The best forex brokers for US clients are those who do not even bother to look for international clients in the first place. Let’s face it. US client requirements are not that tight. But these brokers would surely want to maximize their possible sales and profits, and this is where they will advertise. And as far as advertising is concerned, most US brokers forget to inform their potential clients about US citizenship.

This is why many newbie forex traders ask if US online brokers are accepting US clients, and the answer is… Yes! If you check carefully, you will notice that most US forex brokers listed on their website or in their press releases are accepting US clients.

Demo Account:

When looking for a forex broker, there are several things one should keep in mind. For one thing, make sure the broker offers a demo account. A demo account is a way for new forex traders to practise forex trading without investing real money. Many forex brokers also offer free training videos and other materials that forex traders can use to practice forex trading. Finally, forex traders need to know that their broker will not force them into a trade before they are ready.

Open a Trading Account:

US clients may also have to satisfy another condition, however. They may need to open a trading account with a brokerage firm that does not do currency trading. This condition is often inconvenient as precious metals trading consists of a lot of international wire transfers.

Many brokers, however, have started to accept US clients as they realize that forex traders have become increasingly US-friendly in recent years. That said, however, they are still not fully ready to allow US clients to trade in the forex markets.

Features of Interactive Brokers:

If you are a US citizen, you may want to explore the option of opening an account with one of the online forex brokers that provides the features of interactive brokers. Interactive brokers provide forex trading with some different features such as chat, text-only options, and even video options.

While it is generally possible to keep a US account open long before you leave the country for travel purposes, you should be aware of the commissions and fees that may apply when you do depart. That said, interactive brokers do offer many US-dominant trading pairs like the US Dollar/Celtic Silver, US Dollar/Japanese Yen, US Dollar/Swiss Francs, and US Dollar/New Zealand Dollar among others.

Offer a Variety of Trading Option:

In terms of the forex brokers themselves, many US-based companies can be counted upon to have competent US traders on their staff. These companies tend to offer a variety of trading options for their US clients. But also have many different platform choices for potential traders to choose from.

You should look for forex brokers who are experienced in handling US dollar instruments. As they will be able to provide you with the most accurate information regarding the price movements of these particular currencies. This will enable you to make the most appropriate trade decisions.

By Taylor Wilman

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 24.05.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.2238, EURUSD is falling towards 1.2152 and may later grow to reach 1.2200, thus forming a new consolidation range between the two latter levels. If the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue the correction towards 1.2055; if to the upside – start another growth with the target at 1.2322.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1.4218 and then reaching 1.4155, GBPUSD has formed a new consolidation range below the latter level. Possibly, the pair may break the range to the downside and start a new decline with the target at 1.4097.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After rebounding from 74.65, USDRUB is falling towards 73.22. Later, the market may correct to reach 73.65 and then resume trading within the downtrend with the target at 73.20.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After rebounding from 108.62, USDJPY is growing towards 109.29 and may later correct to reach 108.98, thus forming a new consolidation range between the two latter levels. If the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure towards 110.10; if to the downside – start another decline with the target at 108.50.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After rebounding from 0.8953, USDCHF has completed the ascending impulse towards 0.9001; right now., it is correcting to reach 0.8964. After that, the instrument may continue trading upwards with the target at 0.9055.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.7780, AUDUSD is falling to break 0.7702. Later, the market may continue falling with the short-term target at 0.7626.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

After rebounding from 64.50, Brent has returned to 67.00. Possibly, today the asset may form a new descending structure to reach 64.10 and then grow to return to 67.00. After that, the instrument may break the latter level and continue trading upwards with the target at 70.00.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1873.00 without particular direction. Possibly, the metal may expand the range down to 1854.55 and then form one more ascending structure with the key target at 1900.50. Later, the market may start a new correction towards 1710.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The S&P index is still consolidating around 4141.0. Today, the asset may expand the range up to 4198.5 and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 3980.4.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 24.05.2021 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the uptrend has reached 50.0% fibo; right now, the pair is consolidating before starting another growth towards 61.8% fibo at 1922.50. However, despite the fact that the current uptrend is quite stable, there is a divergence on MACD, which may hint at a possible pullback. The key support remains the low at 1676.78 but it may soon relocate to 38.2% (1824.45).

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the consolidation range after a quick rise. Under the current circumstances, the asset may break the range both to the upside and downside at 1890.04 and 1852.14 respectively. However, the first scenario is more likely. After breaking 1890.04, XAUUSD may resume growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1904.35 and 1913.10 respectively. On the other hand, a breakout of the support at 1852.14 will lead to a deeper correction.

GOLD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking 61.8% fibo, USDCHF has slowed down its decline a bit. At the moment, the pair is approaching 76.0% fibo at 0.8930, a rebound from which may lead to a reversal and a new growth but only after a breakout of the local support at 0.8954. The possible upside targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 0.9076, 0.9152, 0.9214, and 0.9275 respectively.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows that the current decline is slowing down and updating the local lows. However, the fact that the highs are relocating to the downside doesn’t imply a possible reversal. In the short term, the asset may test the low at 0.8954.

USDCHF_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The dollar index is near its lowest level in the last 3 months, and the downward trend is likely to continue

by JustForex

US stock indices were mixed last trading week, but the overall market rate decreased by 0.4%. The Nasdaq index performed the best, interrupting four-week series of decline. Stocks of cyclical companies from the financial, industrial, basic materials, and energy sectors became the growth leaders. The analysts expect that in the near future, the US economy will gain momentum due to the reopening of the economy and increase of the corporate profits of many companies, which is the basis of the stock market profitability. The question is, will it affect the further rise in inflation or not?

It is a bank holiday in many countries today. Canada is celebrating Victoria Day. Whit Monday is celebrated in Germany, France, and Switzerland.

Gold rose to its four-month highs. Despite the fact that the Federal Reserve officials are not going to change monetary policy anytime soon, many investors still have big fears about rising inflation which is forcing them to shift funds into protective assets such as gold and silver.

The price of “black gold” has no directional dynamics right now. First, oil rose due to concerns over the weather in the Gulf of Mexico, but by the end of the week, it fell in light of Iran negotiations. If the sanctions are lifted, Iranian oil may enter the market.

Asia-Pacific stock indices are showing weak upward momentum. There is an acceleration of vaccination rates in Japan, which is good for the Nikkei 225 index. This week, several central banks of New Zealand, South Korea, and Indonesia will hold meetings, which may have a significant impact on the dynamics of major indices in the region.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,155.86 -3.26 (-0.08%)

Dow Jones 34,207.84 +123.69 (+0.36%)

DAX 15,437.51 +67.25 (+0.44%)

FTSE 100 7,018.05 -1.74 (-0.03%)

USD Index 90.03 +0.22 (+0.25%)

Important events:
  • – New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks at 15:05 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Volatility in EUR/USD Will Remain High

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

On Monday, May 24th, the major currency pair is consolidating at 1.2187. However, the fact that the previous week was pretty volatile suggests that the current week may be just the same.

Apart from the US 10-year bond yield, market players are currently focused on what is happening in the Euro Area. The European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde said earlier the chance that the regulator revised its current monetary policy was pretty small. She believes that it’s too early to discuss any long-term issues. Lagarde confirmed the ECB’s strategy to support favorable financing terms during the entire pandemic period and said that the time to wind up stimulus programs hadn’t come yet.

This was a response to the rumors that the aggressive vaccination campaign and the decline in the number of new coronavirus cases in Europe may trigger a quicker recovery of the European economy, hence lead to a sooner cancellation of the regulator’s stimulus programs.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD is falling towards 1.2152 and may later start another growth to reach 1.2200, thus forming a new consolidation range between these two levels. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may correct towards 1.2000; if to the upside – expand it up to 1.2300. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is falling towards 0. Moreover, a divergence implies a breakout of this level to the downside and may lead to a further correction in the price chart.

As we can see in the H1 chart, after rebounding from 1.2238, EUR/USD has completed the descending structure to reach the downside border of the range at 1.2160; right now, it is correcting towards 1.2200. After that, the instrument may start another decline with the target at 1.2152. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: after breaking 50 to the upside, its signal line may grow towards 80. Later, the line may rebound and resume falling to reach 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.05.24

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2226
  • Prev Close: 1.2181
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.37%

The EUR/USD currency pair has formed a wide flat with the range of 1.2168-1.2243. The 1.2202 level is no longer active, as the price no longer takes it into account.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2168, 1.2138, 1.2115, 1.2074, 1.2026, 1.2002, 1.1957
  • Resistance levels: 1.2243

The trend is still bullish. The price is above the change priority level of 1.2138. At the current moment, the price is trading near the moving average, while the MACD indicator returned into the negative zone. Under such market conditions, traders can look for both buying from the lower border of the corridor and selling from the upper border of the flat range.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2138 support level and fixes below, the general uptrend is likely to be broken.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.4188
  • Prev Close: 1.4146
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.30%

At the moment, the British pound is strongly correlated with the euro. The GBP/USD currency pair has also formed a wide flat with a range of 1.4110-1.4207.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.4110, 1.4075, 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
  • Resistance levels: 1.4207

The trend remains bullish. The price is above the moving average. The MACD indicator has become inactive. It is recommended for traders to look for long positions from the lower border of the range or look for sell positions from the resistance level of 1.4207, where sellers hold the defense well.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.4075 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2021.05.24:
  • – UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 108.73
  • Prev Close: 108.95
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

On Friday, the USD/JPY currency pair increased by 0.2% and at the end of the trading session tried to break through the dynamic moving average. There is a new psychological resistance level of 109. Together with the moving line, this level will be a tough obstacle for the buyers.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 108.66, 108.44, 108.19, 107.77, 107.47, 107.04
  • Resistance levels: 109.00, 109.40, 109.64, 109.95, 110.51

On the H1 timeframe, the trend remains bearish, and the price is trading below the moving average. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Traders are better to look for sell positions from the resistance levels. It is also possible to consider long positions, but only within an uptrend on the lower timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 109.40, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2021.05.24:
  • – Japan BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks at 15:05 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2056
  • Prev Close: 1.2065
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.07%

The USD/CAD currency pair began to form a balanced structure which may eventually lead to a reversal of the general downtrend. On Friday, the price has formed a false breakthrough of the 1.2048 support level with a return on impulsive move.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2048, 1.1944
  • Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519

The price is trading below the moving average, the trend remains bearish. But there are signs of divergence on the MACD indicator. At the moment the best strategy for the USD/CAD currency pair is to stay out of the position. It is possible to sell within the trend, if the price will consolidate below the support level of 1.2048 again. It is too early to look for long positions, since there is no significant initiative from the buyers.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, a local corrective uptrend is likely to form.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Key events this week: Can US stocks halt weekly losing streak?

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

Last week, the volatility in crypto currencies was one of the factors that contributed to declines in equities, with alternative assets gaining enough heft to affect other asset classes. Despite crypto’s continued wild sings through the weekend, US equity futures are attempting to gain liftoff during the Asian morning session on Monday, as stocks attempt to halt two consecutive weeks of declines:

 

Here are the key scheduled events that could influence market sentiment this week:

Monday, May 24

  • Fed speak: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Lael Brainard

Tuesday, May 25

  • Germany Q1 GDP (final print)
  • US new home sales, consumer confidence

Wednesday, May 26

  • RBNZ decision
  • Wall Street bank CEOs testify in Senate
  • Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles speech

Thursday, May 27

  • Wall Street bank CEOs testify before House committee
  • China industrial profits
  • Germany consumer confidence
  • US initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP (second print)

Friday, May 28

  • Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
  • US personal income/spending, consumer sentiment

 

Dollar plagued by inflation fears (DXY)

The dollar index is hanging on to the psychologically-important 90 handle at the time of writing. However, the downward trend since end-March looks firmly intact, with DXY poised to test the year-to-date low.

The inflation outlook is likely to remain the dominant theme in global financial markets, as investors try and gain more clues from the scheduled Fed speak and US economic data releases due in the final trading week of May.

More signs of consumer prices making a roaring comeback, with a tolerate Fed remaining off in the sidelines, could prompt more dollar weakness in the week ahead.

 

Commodities to have larger say on kiwi than central bank (NZDUSD)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to adjust its official cash rate mid-week, although it could provide upward revisions to its economic forecasts. While a more bullish economic outlook could help push the New Zealand dollar higher, it has to shake off its correlation with commodity prices which are still coming off their peaks.

Despite having weakened against all of its G10 peers except for the Norwegian Krone last week, NZDUSD remains within the 0.71-0.73 range that it adhered to for much of the first quarter of 2021 as well. NZD bulls will be hoping for commodity prices to stabilize in order to offer support for the kiwi, which has been relying on its 50-day simple moving average to buttress prices over the past month.

Consider also the FXTM New Zealand Dollar index, which is an equally-weighted index comprising:

  • NZDUSD
  • NZDCHF
  • EURNZD
  • GBPNZD
  • AUDNZD
  • NZDCAD

This index is on an obvious downward trajectory, and should this momentum persist, that could result in a new year-to-date low.

 

Commodity spotlight – Oil (Brent)

Brent oil registered its biggest weekly decline since March.

Oil bulls are hoping that the optimism surrounding the global demand recovery will be enough to offset concerns surrounding more incoming Iranian supply, should the US-Iran nuclear deal be restored.

From a technical perspective, its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) appears to be holding as a key support level once more. The week ahead could prove telling whether the 50-SMA can continue guiding Brent higher like it has in the past two months, despite the declines in the broader commodities complex.

 

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US Dollar Breaks Below 90 – Continue To Confirm Depreciation Cycle Phase

By TheTechnicalTraders 

– If you’ve been following my recent research posts, you already know my research team and I are expecting some very big volatility and trends in the US and global markets over the next 12 to 48 months.

The US Dollar Index fell below a critical support level above 90 recently.  This move lower after attempting to bottom in early 2021 suggests our broad Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research is continuing to play out.  This means we should start to prepare for bigger trends, more volatility, and the potential for broad market price rotation over the next few years. You can read about our Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phase research entitled Long Term Gold/US Dollar Cycles Show Big Trends For Metals and Metals Rally Early In 2021.

You Can’t Fight The Market Tides – Get Ready For The Depreciation Cycle Phase

These broader market cycle phases act like lunar phases in ocean tides.  There are always smaller waves that lap at the shore continually, but there are bigger trends, the lunar cycle trends, that drive larger excess tidal highs and lows.  The global markets work in much the same manner with the longer-term Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phases (which usually last about 7 to 9 years in length).  When we are in an Appreciation phase, precious metals fall out of favor as global traders and investors pile into strong global equity market trends.  When we are in a Depreciation phase, precious metals tend to trend higher because global market volatility, a declining US Dollar, credit market and other concerns drive traders into more protective/hedging positions.

In short, the transition from a general market Appreciation cycle phase, which we believe ended in late 2019, into a new general market Depreciation cycle phase suggests the following general trends will take place over the next 5 to 7+ years and likely prompt the following types of price trends:

  • Precious Metals should continue to rally as broad market economic and credit market concerns become elevated.
  • Larger price volatility and bigger price rotations will likely drive traders to become more cautious of the “buy and hold” type of passive investing.  These bigger price swings and how they related to sector trends will create a true “traders marketplace”.
  • Commodities usually rally to a peak near the end of an Appreciation cycle phase. You can learn more about these Commodities Super Cycles here.
  • Generally, global equities markets attempt to reprice true value within a Depreciation cycle phase.  This happens because the end of the Appreciation cycle phase usually prompts a “euphoric rally” type of extreme peak.  After that peak exhausts, the transition into the Depreciation cycle phase usually consists of a “revaluing price phase” which is followed by an ultimate bottom, then the start of a reflation phase.

Our technical levels on the US Dollar are 89.99 (which has already been breached) and 88.43.  Once the 88.43 level is breached,the next major standout lows are near 84.47 and 79.74.  These deeper support levels represent a further decline of -6% to -11% for the US Dollar. My belief is that the markets are transitioning into a new Depreciation cycle phase suggests that any move below the 88.43 level will likely confirm the cycle transition is persisting and that we can continue to expect bigger volatility and bigger trends in metals and within the global markets.

Start Preparing Now For The US Dollar To Breach The 88.43 Level

If our research is correct, the next 5+ years are going to become a “traders marketplace” – where the large rambling bullish price trends are less frequent and where active traders want to start executing strategic trades when the markets confirm real opportunity exists for profits – very similar to what happened between 2002 and 2011.

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This following example of the Gold Cycle Phase, as seen on the chart below, highlights the Appreciation/Depreciation cycle phases and shows key Fibonacci Extension price targets near $2100, $2600, and $3200 for Gold.  Gold may rally much higher than the $3200 level if the current Depreciation cycle phase is aggressive in nature.  Only time will tell what really happens because of this new cycle phase.

If my research is correct, the next 7+ years will test the skills of even the best traders.  You’ll need to really be on top of your strategies and fully understand the volatility and risks that are present because of this new Depreciation cycle phase. This is the type of market where huge opportunities exist if you can stay well protected from the risks and volatility while capturing the big trends.  Are you ready for these exciting market trends?  Want to know how we can help?

You can learn more about how I identify and trade the markets by watching my FREE step-by-step guide to finding and trading the best sectors. Of course, my BAN Trader Pro newsletter service does all the work for you, with my daily pre-market reports, proprietary research, and BAN trade alerts.

Enjoy your Sunday!

Chris Vermeulen
Founder & Chief Market Strategist

TheTechnicalTraders.com