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Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 19.09.2022 (USDCAD, AUDUSD, USDCHF)

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Hanging Man reversal pattern close to the resistance level, USDCAD may reverse in the form of a new descending impulse. In this case, the downside correctional target may be at 1.3225. Later, the market may rebound from this level and resume growing. However, an alternative scenario implies that the asset may grow to reach 1.3370 and continue the uptrend without testing the support area.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, AUDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.6740. After testing the level, the price may rebound from it and resume the descending tendency. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 0.6640 and continue the downtrend without any pullbacks up to resistance level.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, USDCHF may reverse in the form of a new ascending wave. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.9750. After testing this level, the price may break it and continue trading upwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach the support area at 0.9620 and continue the ascending tendency only after the pullback.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

19 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.19

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9995
Prev Close: 1.0014
% chg. over the last day: +0.19 %

The annualized Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone reached 9.1% (vs. 8.9% in July). A year earlier, it was 3.0%. Inflation in the Eurozone shows no signs of slowing down thus far. ECB member Nagel said Friday that the ECB would continue to raise rates to control inflation. Another ECB official, Ren, also agrees that the ECB needs to keep raising rates.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9971, 0.9912.
Resistance levels: 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. On Friday, the price formed a false breakdown area below the level of 0.9971. Now this zone can be used to search for buy trades, but with confirmation. The MACD indicator has become positive, with a slight buying pressure. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0111 or 1.0162.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9912 and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1462
Prev Close: 1.1418
% chg. over the last day: -0.38 %

The UK Retail Sales Data released Friday underscored that consumers are struggling. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales fell by 1.6% in August, continuing a downward trend since the summer of 2021. The British pound remains under pressure ahead of this week’s decision by England’s Central Bank. In turn, the UK Central Bank is in an awkward situation, as it will announce its decision one day before new Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveils an emergency mini-budget. Analysts expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 0.5% this week, the last rate hike in the UK this year.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1400
Resistance levels: 1.1449, 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the negative area, but there are signs of divergence. It is possible that the price is now forming a false-breakdown area, which can be used as support if the price again consolidates above the level of 1.1449. Sell trades are better to consider on the intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance is 1.1626.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.1693 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 143.41
Prev Close: 142.91
% chg. over the last day: -0.34 %

Japan will release inflation data this week, and the Core Consumer Price Index (which excludes food and energy prices) is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% in annual terms. But analysts are confident that rising inflation in Japan will not affect the Japanese yen much. That’s because there is a consensus that the Bank of Japan will not change policy at its meeting later this week. After all, the inflation Japan is experiencing is the “wrong” inflation. This inflation is not caused by an increase in monetary circulation due to economic growth but by a combination of higher global costs and higher import prices due to a weak currency. While raising rates would help reduce some of the impacts of inflation, it would damage an economy that is already not very healthy. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will continue to seek further easing.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 142.57, 141.77, 141.00, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 144.21, 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 142.57, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 144.21 or 145.00, but only with additional confirmation since the USD/JPY is fundamentally inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3226
Prev Close: 1.3263
% chg. over the last day: +0.28 %

The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly two years as investors worldwide assessed the deteriorating economic outlook and returned to haven currencies such as the US dollar. Persistently high US inflation increases the likelihood that the country’s Central Bank will have to raise interest rates even more aggressively than before. Another reason for the relative weakness of the Canadian dollar is the decline in commodity prices such as oil and gold. All else being equal, a higher interest rate increases the value of the national currency because foreign investors find it more profitable to put their money there: they get a higher return for it. Suppose the Fed’s rate rises to 4.5% next year, as investors expect. In that case, that is much higher than the Bank of Canada is likely to be able to raise, so the gap between the two countries’ currencies will widen, which is already putting pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3220, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3326

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3220. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3326, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2990 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Sep

COT Forex Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling & Euro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Japanese Yen & British Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (24,512 contracts) with the Mexican peso (4,079 contracts) and the Brazilian real (2,093 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-22,503 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-17,654 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,485 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,268 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,555 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,350 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,196 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies this week was the further deterioration of the Japanese yen speculative positions. The yen speculator bets have now fallen for five straight weeks and by a total of -55,660 contracts over that period. This recent weakness followed an improvement in the yen positions in ten out of the previous thirteen weeks through August 9th. The overall speculator standing this week has dipped to the most bearish level of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to June 7th. The USDJPY currency pair has continued to see the dollar surge against the yen with the USDJPY above the 142.90 exchange rate to end the week. The pair has hit a high right below the 145.00 level for two straight weeks which is the highest exchange rate for the dollar versus the yen since September of 1998.

The British pound sterling speculator positions fell for a third consecutive week this week. The sterling bets have now declined by a total of -40,120 contracts over the past three weeks to bring the overall standing to a 14-week low. The GBPUSD currency pair has also dropped to a multi-decade low against the US dollar with the pound hitting a 37-year low this week. The GBPUSD closed the week just above the 1.1400 exchange rate after falling in four out of the past five weeks.

On the positive side of the COT data this week is the Euro. The European common currency bounced back this week with a strong +24,512 contracts and has now risen for two straight weeks. This recent improvement has taken the overall speculator standing to a level of just -11,837 contracts. With the EURUSD currency pair trading virtually at parity as it closed the week at the 1.0017 exchange rate, it is an interesting situation trying to read the large trader positioning. The speculators, especially in currencies, usually exhibit trend following behavior and would be expected to have a position of at least -100,000 contracts in this type of environment.

This could mean the speculators feel that the parity level will be close to the bottom for this pair and it is too risky to add to the short positioning. Or, the speculator short positioning could start to rise if the pair keeps its downtrend below parity. One thing for sure is that there are a huge amount of positions open in the market currently. The open interest level this week of 742,244 contracts is in the 99th percentile of the past three years. We know from open interest analysis that many times turning points coincide with peaks in open interest. However, with a possible recession for the Eurozone on the way combined with strong inflationary pressures and a potential energy crisis from the Russia-Ukraine war, the fundamental backdrop is very cloudy. It will undoubtedly take some time but will be very interesting to see how the large trader positioning and situation resolves itself.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	62,077	93	35,669	84	-38,380	15	2,711	46
EUR	742,244	100	-11,837	31	-11,423	73	23,260	13
GBP	303,965	100	-68,086	11	87,325	92	-19,239	7
JPY	281,716	100	-80,692	19	98,299	84	-17,607	18
CHF	44,853	31	-7,305	38	16,512	70	-9,207	26
CAD	149,556	30	12,425	53	-13,476	57	1,051	32
AUD	182,287	69	-57,850	31	67,018	69	-9,168	30
NZD	51,079	46	-5,301	62	9,408	45	-4,107	4
MXN	208,403	53	-25,381	17	21,333	82	4,048	60
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,582	42	32,953	83	-34,577	18	1,624	84
Bitcoin	13,089	74	126	79	-320	0	194	17

Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.8 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges and both are in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (79.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent).

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent), Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (85.2 percent)
EuroFX (31.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.8 percent)
Brazil Real (82.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (80.7 percent)
Bitcoin (79.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

Brazilian Real leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (33.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (15.2 percent), Bitcoin (12.3 percent) and the Euro (8.3 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) followed by the Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.4 percent)
EuroFX (8.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.2 percent)
Brazil Real (33.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,107 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	9.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	70.9	4.2
– Net Position:	35,669	-38,380	2,711
– Gross Longs:	48,984	5,647	5,342
– Gross Shorts:	13,315	44,027	2,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	14.8	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.0	-1.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	55.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	56.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-11,837	-11,423	23,260
– Gross Longs:	207,778	410,364	88,806
– Gross Shorts:	219,615	421,787	65,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	72.8	12.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-7.6	-0.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	76.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	47.7	13.3
– Net Position:	-68,086	87,325	-19,239
– Gross Longs:	41,129	232,346	21,161
– Gross Shorts:	109,215	145,021	40,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	92.4	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.9	-7.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -22,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	40.5	14.5
– Net Position:	-80,692	98,299	-17,607
– Gross Longs:	39,323	212,375	23,186
– Gross Shorts:	120,015	114,076	40,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	83.6	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	23.4	-20.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	60.2	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	23.4	41.4
– Net Position:	-7,305	16,512	-9,207
– Gross Longs:	7,704	26,988	9,355
– Gross Shorts:	15,009	10,476	18,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	69.8	26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-10.8	2.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	44.7	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	53.7	20.0
– Net Position:	12,425	-13,476	1,051
– Gross Longs:	48,102	66,866	30,933
– Gross Shorts:	35,677	80,342	29,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	57.5	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	14.1	-18.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	66.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.8	29.3	17.1
– Net Position:	-57,850	67,018	-9,168
– Gross Longs:	29,218	120,393	22,049
– Gross Shorts:	87,068	53,375	31,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	68.9	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	3.7	-7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	53.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	35.3	12.9
– Net Position:	-5,301	9,408	-4,107
– Gross Longs:	17,949	27,458	2,498
– Gross Shorts:	23,250	18,050	6,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	44.9	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.0	-9.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	42.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.0	32.6	1.6
– Net Position:	-25,381	21,333	4,048
– Gross Longs:	103,772	89,260	7,469
– Gross Shorts:	129,153	67,927	3,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	81.7	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.3	7.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.8	12.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	79.0	3.1
– Net Position:	32,953	-34,577	1,624
– Gross Longs:	42,192	6,186	3,203
– Gross Shorts:	9,239	40,763	1,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	17.5	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.5	-33.2	-0.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	4.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.5	6.6	5.7
– Net Position:	126	-320	194
– Gross Longs:	10,268	546	944
– Gross Shorts:	10,142	866	750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	49.0	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-27.4	-3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT excel data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

16 Sep

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 16.09.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After a mighty decline to 0.9955, the pair is consolidating around 0.9988. Today it may drop to the lower border of the range at 0.9955, and with a breakaway of this level downwards, a pathway to 0.9800 will open.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1535, and today it has almost broke through this border. A wave of decline might form to 1.1360. After this level is reached, a link of correction may form to 1.1480, and later a decline to 1.1340.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The pair is forming a consolidation range around 143.25. Today the range might extend to 144.00. If it is broken away upwards, growth to 144.99 will become possible. And in the case of an escape from the range downwards, the pair might reach 141.99, from where the trend might continue to 140.99.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The pair performed a wave of growth to 0.9600 and corrected to 0.9555. Today the market is forming a new structure of growth to 0.9633, around which level a consolidation range may form. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 0.9714 will open. The goal is local.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The pair performed a wave of decline to 0.6727, and today the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. With an escape upwards, a link of correction to 0.6800 may follow. And with a breakaway downwards, the pair might proceed to 0.6606. The goal is local.

BRENT

Oil completed a link of a growing wave to 96.00. Today the market corrected to 90.25. At the moment, the market is consolidating above this level. We expect an escape upwards as soon as the new wave of growth to 97.00 starts.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold performed a structure of decline to 1693.40. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation range around this level; with an escape downwards, the wave of decline will be extended to 1656.22. After this level is reached, a wave of growth to 1695.00 might start.

S&P 500

The stock index completed a wave of decline to 3913.0. At the moment, the market has formed a consolidation range above this level and today escaped it downwards. Practically, a pathway to 3755.5 is open. And after this one is reached, the index might correct to 3955.5 (a test from below).

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.16

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9972
Prev Close: 0.9994
% chg. over the last day: +0.22 %

New Eurozone inflation data will be released today. Analysts forecast that the Consumer Price Index will not change and will remain at the same level. But there may be surprises in the form of a new round of price acceleration, so investors should keep a close eye on the report. Volatility in currency pairs with the euro will increase.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9971, 0.9912
Resistance levels: 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading in a narrow range, and a sharp impulse movement is expected. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals on intraday time frames from the support level of 0.9912, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0111 or 1.0162.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9912 and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.16:

– Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1541
Prev Close: 1.1462
% chg. over the last day: -0.69 %

The pound is one of the major currencies with the worst performance in 2022 due to expectations of a prolonged recession, sustained high inflation, and political instability. New Prime Minister Liz Truss’s plans to finance a giant energy support package by increasing borrowing have heightened investor fears about the long-term prospects of the British economy. The Bank of England (BoE) will meet next week and is expected to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points (bps), perhaps even 75 bps, as it looks to slow inflation. According to Refinitiv, money markets currently assume a 65% chance of a 75 basis point increase.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1449, 1.1400
Resistance levels: 1.1626, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. But at the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages again, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1449, but only with confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1626 or 1.1693.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down the support level of 1.1449 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.16:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 143.11
Prev Close: 143.46
% chg. over the last day: +0.25 %

Koichi Hagiuda, executive director of Japan’s ruling party, calls for $209 billion to fight inflation and the weak yen. A senior Japanese ruling party official suggested Thursday that a stimulus package worth more than 30 trillion yen is needed to address inflationary pressures in Japan’s economy. Haguida’s remarks followed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s comments last week that the government would prepare a new economic package in October to soften the blow that rising prices are taking on households and businesses. The government has unveiled short-term stimulus measures that include financial support for low-income households, tax exemptions for residents, and an extension of gasoline subsidies and other measures through the end of the year.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 142.88, 141.77, 141.00, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 144.22, 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 142.88, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be sought on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 144.22 or 145.00, but only with additional confirmation since the USD/JPY is inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3167
Prev Close: 1.3226
% chg. over the last day: +0.45 %

The Canadian dollar has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since 2020. Despite falling more than 4% this year against its US counterpart, the Canadian dollar will remain one of the best-performing currencies in the world in 2022. The economy has been helped by higher commodity and energy prices as well as reduced COVID restrictions, with growth actually accelerating in the second quarter even as fears about the global economic crisis intensified.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3220, 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3326

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2990 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Sep

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 15.09.2022 (GBPUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The pair is testing the support level. It is going inside the Cloud, which means the prevalence of a flat. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 1.1545, followed by falling to 1.1275. The decline will be signaled by a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.1635, which will indicate further growth to 1.1725.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The pair is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which means an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.3165 is expected, followed by growth to 1.3325. An additional signal supporting the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The growth can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.3035, which will mean further falling to 1.2945. The growth will also be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Diamond pattern and securing above 1.3210.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The pair has secured under the lower border of the bullish channel. The pair is going under the Cloud, which implies a downtrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 0.6045, followed by falling to 0.5835. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.6105, which will entail further growth to 0.6200.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Sep

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 15.09.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a reversal pattern Harami. The quotes can go by the signal in a descending impulse, possibly aiming at 0.9875. However, the price may grow to 1.0035 and bounce off this level, continuing the downtrend after the correction.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, at a pullback, the pair has formed a reversal pattern Hammer. Going by the signal, the pair has formed an ascending impulse. The goal of growth is still 145.30. However, the price may still pull back to 142.65 and continue the uptrend after the correction to the support level.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

On H4, at a pullback near the support level, the pair has formed a reversal pattern Hammer. The signal of the pattern may now provoke an impulse of growth. The goal of the impulse may still be 0.8745. Upon testing it and breaking through it, the price may continue the uptrend. However, a correction to 0.8615 before continuing the uptrend should not be excluded.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.15

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 0.9965
Prev Close: 0.9979
% chg. over the last day: +0.14 %

Industrial production in the Eurozone has decreased by 2.3% over the last month. These statistics clearly indicate that the region’s economy is struggling. ECB Governing Council spokesman Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Wednesday that interest rates in the Eurozone could reach 2% by year’s end. Another Governing Council representative, Gediminas Simkus, head of Lithuania’s Central Bank, said the Central Bank should raise interest rates by at least half a point at its October meeting. ECB President Philip R. Lane indicated yesterday that, based on current estimates, the ECB should stick with further interest rate hikes over the next few meetings. The new projections call for inflation to average 8.1% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023, and 2.3% in 2024

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9971, 0.9912
Resistance levels: 1.0111, 1.0162, 1.0230

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price formed a false breakout zone above the level of 1.0111 and returned to the wide range. The MACD indicator became negative, and the sellers’ pressure intensified. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 0.9972 or 0.9912, but with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance levels of 1.0111 or 1.0162.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 0.9912 and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.15:

– Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1491
Prev Close: 1.1538
% chg. over the last day: +0.41 %

The annual UK inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 9.9% due to lower fuel prices. But food prices rose as the country’s cost of living crisis continued. On a month-to-month basis, consumer prices increased by 0.5%, slightly below forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, rose by 0.8% month-over-month and to 6.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations. The Bank of England is set to announce its final monetary policy decision of the year next Thursday and is expected to choose a sharp 75 basis point interest rate hike as it helps slow inflation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1503, 1.1449, 1.1400
Resistance levels: 1.1627, 1.1693, 1.1816, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages again, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1503 or 1.1449, but only with confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames, and the nearest resistance level is 1.1627 and 1.1693.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down the support level of 1.1449 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 144.54
Prev Close: 143.16
% chg. over the last day: -0.96 %

The Nikkei newspaper reported on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan conducted an interest rate check-in in apparent preparation for currency intervention, as policymakers stepped up warnings of a sharp drop in the yen. The Central Bank probably considers the recent changes in the yen’s exchange rate to be too extensive. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki also said that the yen’s recent moves have been “swift and one-sided,” which could prompt the government to back the currency. So far, this is all at the level of rumor and talk, which may help slow the yen’s depreciation, but is unlikely to change the trend unless dollar and UST yields fall precipitously or the Bank of Japan changes its policy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 142.88, 141.77, 141.00, 139.61, 138.78, 137.65, 136.80, 135.20
Resistance levels: 145.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 142.88, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered on the intraday time frames from the level of 145.00, but only with additional confirmation, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to growth.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3150
Prev Close: 1.3165
% chg. over the last day: +0.11 %

Canada’s Central Bank is holding interest rates at 3.25%, and it’s 0.75% higher than the US Fed. The US Central Bank is planning another 0.75% rate hike next week, which will flatten rates between the US and Canadian banks again. Thus, the imbalance in pricing will come mainly from oil prices alone since the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency. The growth of oil prices will contribute to the strengthening of the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3053, 1.2990, 1.2958, 1.2936, 1.2900
Resistance levels: 1.3220

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and a narrow flat is forming. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3053 after the pullback. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3220, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2990 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Sep

US wholesale inflation declines. The UK prepares energy support for business

By JustForex

According to a report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday, the Producer Price Index, which reflects wholesale price levels, fell by 0.1%. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the PPI rose by 0.2%. The PPI report fleshes out the US inflation picture and makes it not as bad as the August Consumer Price Index report. Inflation is clearly slowing as gas prices fall. But the process is slow, and inflation will likely remain well above the Fed’s target for at least a few more quarters.

At the moment, there is now a 33% chance of a 100 basis point Fed rate hike next week and a 36.1% chance of a rate hike to 4.75% by May 2023.

As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.09%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.34%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 0.29% on Wednesday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.22%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.37%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) shed 0.10%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday down by 1.47%.

Banks in Germany reduced their holdings of banknotes and coins by a record 11 billion euros. There is plenty of reason to believe they will continue to reduce their non-interest-bearing cash reserves as the ECB interest rate will rise further in October.

The UK will unveil an energy support package for businesses next week. Thousands of businesses are facing steep increases in energy prices as many fixed-price contracts expire, raising fears that the promised support will not be delivered in time. Conversations between government officials and companies have so far failed to provide details about what unit price the government will set for companies or when it is likely to go into effect.

The prospect of using more oil to heat Europe in winter as Russia blackmails gas cuts has helped oil prices rise for the fourth time in five days. Also boosting the market was a smaller rise in US crude inventories reported by the government over the past week. The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories rose by 6.035 million barrels on September 9.

Spot gold prices traded below a key support level of $1700 on Thursday, extending recent declines, as concerns over more aggressive Federal Reserve measures continue to weaken metals markets.

Asian markets were trading lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 2.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 2.48%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday down by 2.58%.

The Chinese say they are increasingly feeling the rise in prices, although official data shows that the inflation rate is much lower than in the US and other countries. China’s Consumer Price Index hit a two-year high in July, rising to an annualized 2.7%. The Index slowed to an annualized 2.5% in August.

Japan’s efforts to stem the yen’s plunge with market interventions will be limited, a senior member of the country’s ruling party warned, as data showed that the currency’s recent slide has led to a record trade deficit.

A slight rise in the unemployment rate (from 3.4% to 3.5%) may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to slow growth to 25 basis points at its next meeting.

New Zealand’s GDP rose by 1.7% in the last quarter. The growth drivers were air transport and transportation services. Drivers of the downturn are declines in manufacturing and construction.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,946.01 +13.32 (+0.34%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,135.09 +30.12 (+0.097%)

DAX (DE40) 13,028.00 −160.95 (−1.22%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,277.30 −108.56 (−1.47%)

USD Index 109.67 −0.15 (−0.14%)

Important events for today:

– New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Sep

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Indices

By ForexTime

A sense of normality returned to financial markets on Wednesday after the utter chaos witnessed in the previous session.

The hotter-than-expected US inflation report detonated explosive levels of volatility across the board as fears intensified over the Fed triggering a recession to control inflation. US consumer prices rose 8.3% in the year to August, down from July’s 8.5% number but higher than the 8.1% market forecast. Traders have priced in the chance for a 75 basis point US rate hike in September and November following the smoking hot inflation figures. This development reinvigorated dollar bulls, sending the Dollar Index (DXY) back above 109.50 while gold prices smashed into the $1700 psychological support.

This afternoon our focus falls on the global equity space, especially US indices which remain highly sensitive to inflation data and Fed rate hike expectations.

S&P 500 smashes into support zone

The S&P 500 smashed into the 3945 level with the destructive force of a wreaking ball. Prices cut through the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, erasing three days of gains. It is safe to say that bears are back in control with a strong break below 3945 opening a path towards 3905. A strong decline below this point could open a path towards 3810. Further weakness below this point may trigger a selloff towards 3700.

Nasdaq wobbles above 12000

Just like the S&P 500, the Nasdaq tumbled like a house of cards yesterday. Prices created a heavily bearish candle on the daily charts with 12000 acting as a key point of interest. A solid breakdown below 12000 could open the doors towards 11500 and 11208, respectively. Should 12000 prove to be reliable support, an incline back towards 12300 and the 50/100 Simple Moving Averages.

FTSE 100 signals further downside

After cutting through the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages – bears could step into higher gear on the FTSE100. The trend is turning bearish with the recent break below 7300 suggesting a steeper decline towards 7150. If this level is unable to contain bears, prices have the potential to retest the 7000 level. Alternatively, a move back above 7300 could signal a rebound that takes prices back towards the 200-day SMA and 7400, respectively.

EURO STOXX 50 back within range

This index remains trapped within a range with resistance at 3650 and support around 3450. After prices failed to break above 3650, bears seized the driving seat – taking the Euro Stoxx 50 back towards 3550. Given how recession fears continue to gnaw at risk sentiment, this may cap gains across the equity space. The negative momentum may take prices back towards 3450 and 3400, respectively.

Nifty 50 pushes against resistance

The Nifty 50 remains bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. The MACD is trading above zero with bulls currently eyeing the 18050-resistance level. A strong breakout above this point could encourage a further incline towards 18500. Should 18050 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline back towards 17700 and lower could be on the cards.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

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