Archive for Financial News – Page 303

What are wormholes? An astrophysicist explains these shortcuts through space-time

By Dejan Stojkovic, University at Buffalo 

Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to [email protected].


What are wormholes and do they exist? – Chinglembi D., age 12, Silchar, Assam, India


Imagine two towns on two opposite sides of a mountain. People from these towns would probably have to travel all the way around the mountain to visit one another. But, if they wanted to get there faster, they could dig a tunnel straight through the mountain to create a shortcut. That’s the idea behind a wormhole.

A wormhole is like a tunnel between two distant points in our universe that cuts the travel time from one point to the other. Instead of traveling for many millions of years from one galaxy to another, under the right conditions one could theoretically use a wormhole to cut the travel time down to hours or minutes.

Because wormholes represent shortcuts through space-time, they could even act like time machines. You might emerge from one end of a wormhole at a time earlier than when you entered its other end.

While scientists have no evidence that wormholes actually exist in our world, they’re good tools to help astrophysicists like me think about space and time. They may also answer age-old questions about what the universe looks like.

Fact or fiction?

Because of these interesting features, many science fiction writers use wormholes in novels and movies. However, scientists have been just as captivated by the idea of wormholes as writers have.

While researchers have never found a wormhole in our universe, scientists often see wormholes described in the solutions to important physics equations. Most prominently, the solutions to the equations behind Einstein’s theory of space-time and general relativity include wormholes. This theory describes the shape of the universe and how stars, planets and other objects move throughout it. Because Einstein’s theory has been tested many, many times and found to be correct every time, some scientists do expect wormholes to exist somewhere out in the universe.

But, other scientists think wormholes can’t possibly exist because they would be too unstable.

The constant pull of gravity affects every object in the universe, including Earth. So gravity would have an effect on wormholes, too. The scientists who are skeptical about wormholes believe that after a short time the middle of the wormhole would collapse under its own gravity, unless it had some force pushing outward from inside the wormhole to counteract that force. The most likely way it would do that is using what’s called “negative energies,” which would oppose gravity and stabilize the wormhole.

But as far as scientists know, negative energies can be created only in amounts much too small to counteract a wormhole’s own gravity. It’s possible that the Big Bang created teeny, tiny wormholes with small amounts of negative energies way back at the beginning of the universe, and over time these wormholes have stretched out as the universe has expanded.

In this short video by Fusion, a Caltech professor sums up what wormholes are and the stability question that’s boggling scientists.

Just like black holes?

While wormholes are interesting objects structures to think about, they still aren’t accepted into mainstream science. But that doesn’t mean they’re not real – black holes, which we astrophysicists know abound in our universe, weren’t accepted when scientists first suggested they existed, back in the 1910s.

Einstein first formulated his famous field equations in 1915, and German scientist Karl Schwarzschild found a way to mathematically describe black holes after only one year. However, this description was so peculiar that the leading scientists of that era refused to believe that black holes could actually exist in nature. It took people 50 years to start taking black holes seriously – the term “black hole” wasn’t even coined until 1967.

The same could happen with wormholes. It may take scientists a little while to come up with a consensus about whether or not they can exist. But if they do find strong evidence pointing to the existence of wormholes – which they may be able to do by looking at odd movements in star orbits – the discovery will shape how scientists see and understand the universe.


Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to [email protected]. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.The Conversation

About the Author:

Dejan Stojkovic, Professor of Physics, University at Buffalo

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Chart Spotlight: Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

By Ino.com

Over the last few weeks, I highlighted a few opportunities with Chart Spotlight.

  • On July 13, for example, I highlighted Generac Holdings (GNRC), as it traded around $212. It’s now up to $265.50.
  • On July 26, I highlighted Albemarle (ALB), as it traded at $224. It’s now up to $280.15.
  • On August 3, I highlighted Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA), as it traded around $13. It’s now up to $15.26, and could still move higher with Bitcoin.
  • On August 5, I spoke about Tellurian (TELL), as it traded at $3.15. It’s now at $4.35.

With the help of the screeners at MarketClub, that’s not bad at all.

Today, I’m taking a look at solar stocks, like Canadian Solar (CSIQ), which MarketClub is rating with a strong +100. Not only is this an indication of a strong long-term trend, it’s also telling us the intermediate and short-term trend is up for CSIQ, as well.

In fact according to the Chart Analysis Score, at a +100, CSIQ is in a strong uptrend that is likely to continue. With short-term, intermediate, and long-term bullish momentum, CSIQ continues to climb. MarketClub’s most recent green monthly Trade Triangle occurred on August 5 at $38.18.

CSIQ Chart With Trade Triangles

Source: MarketClub

 

Why is Canadian Solar running like this?

There are a few reasons.

For one, solar stocks are riding the momentum behind the $370 billion clean energy bill.

According to U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s site, “The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 invests in the technologies needed for all fuel types – from hydrogen, nuclear, renewables, fossil fuels and energy storage – to be produced and used in the cleanest way possible. It is truly all of the above, which means this bill does not arbitrarily shut off our abundant fossil fuels. It invests heavily in technologies to help us reduce our domestic methane and carbon emissions and also helps decarbonize around the world as we displace dirtier products.”

Two, that bill includes a 10-year extension on a 30% tax credit for solar projects. It was supposed to expire by next year.

Plus, according to DLA Piper, “For facilities beginning construction before January 1, 2025, the bill will extend the ITC for up to 30 percent of the cost of installed equipment for ten years and will then step down to 26 percent in 2033 and 22 percent in 2034. For projects beginning construction after 2019 that are placed in service before January 1, 2022, the ITC would be set at 26 percent.”

Three, solar stocks, like Canadian Solar (CSIQ) are producing solid earnings and guidance.

For its second quarter, the company saw sales growth of 62% to $2.31 billion. That was higher than expectations for $2.23 billion. EPS of $1.07 was also higher than expectations for 33 cents. Then, the company hiked its 2022 sales forecast to $7.5 billion to $8 billion, which is higher than the initial forecast for a range of $7 billion to $7.5 billion.

Ian Cooper
INO.com Contributor

The above analysis of Canadian Solar (CSIQ) was provided by financial writer Ian Cooper. Ian Cooper is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Ian Cooper expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Chart Spotlight: Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

Does turning the air conditioning off when you’re not home actually save energy? Three engineers run the numbers

By Aisling Pigott, University of Colorado Boulder; Jennifer Scheib, University of Colorado Boulder, and Kyri Baker, University of Colorado Boulder 

Hot summer days can mean high electricity bills. People want to stay comfortable without wasting energy and money. Maybe your household has fought over the best strategy for cooling your space. Which is more efficient: running the air conditioning all summer long without break, or turning it off during the day when you’re not there to enjoy it?

We are a team of architectural and building systems engineers who used energy models that simulate heat transfer and A/C system performance to tackle this perennial question: Will you need to remove more heat from your home by continuously removing heat throughout the day or removing excess heat only at the end of the day?

The answer boils down to how energy intensive it is to remove heat from your home. It’s influenced by many factors such as how well your house is insulated, the size and type of your air conditioner and outdoor temperature and humidity.

According to our unpublished calculations, letting your home heat up while you’re out at work and cooling it when you get home can use less energy than keeping it consistently cool – but it depends.

Blast A/C all day, even when you’re away?

First, think about how heat accumulates in the first place. It flows into your home when the building has less stored heat than outside. If the amount of heat flowing into your home is given by a rate of “1 unit per hour,” your A/C will always have 1 unit of heat to remove every hour. If you turn off your A/C and let the heat accumulate, you could have up to eight hours’ worth of heat at the end of the day.

It’s often less than that, though – homes have a limit to how much heat they can store. And the amount of heat that enters your home depends on how hot the building was to begin with. For example, if your home can only store 5 units of thermal energy before coming to an equilibrium with the outdoor air temperature, then at the end of the day you will only ever have to remove 5 units of heat at most.

Additionally, as your home heats up, the process of heat transfer slows down; eventually it reaches zero heat transfer at equilibrium, when the temperature inside is the same as the temperature outside. Your A/C also cools less effectively in extreme heat, so keeping it off during the hottest parts of the day can increase overall efficiency of the system. These effects mean there’s no one straightforward answer to whether you should blast the A/C all day or wait until you get back home in the evening.

Energy used by different A/C strategies

Consider a test case of a small home with typical insulation in two warm climates: dry (Arizona) and humid (Georgia). Using energy modeling software created by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory for analyzing energy use in residential buildings, we looked at multiple test cases for energy use in this hypothetical 1,200 square-foot (110 square-meter) home.

We considered three temperature strategy scenarios. One has the indoor temperature set to a constant 76 degrees Fahrenheit (24.4 degrees Celsius). A second lets the temperature float up to 89 F (31.6 C) during an eight-hour workday – a “setback.” The last uses a temperature setback to 89 F (31.6 C) for a short four-hour workday.

Within these three scenarios, we looked at three different A/C technologies: a single stage central A/C, a central air source heat pump (ASHP) and minisplit heat pump units. Central A/C units are typical of current residential buildings, while heat pumps are gaining popularity due to their improved efficiency. Central ASHPs are easily used in one-to-one replacements of central A/C units; minisplits are more efficient than central A/C but costly to set up.

We wanted to see how energy use from A/C varied across these cases. We knew that regardless of the HVAC technology used, the A/C system would surge when the thermostat setpoint returned to 76 F (24.4 C) and also for all three cases in the late afternoon when outdoor air temperatures are usually the highest. In the setback cases, we programmed the A/C to start cooling the space before the resident is back, ensuring thermal comfort by the time they get home.

Six line graphs that show how the temperature in the house and the energy used vary with the outdoor heat.
Energy models can show how much energy a house will use under particular conditions – like Phoenix’s hot, dry summer weather. The researchers ran the numbers on three different HVAC technologies and three different temperature-setting strategies.
Pigott/Scheib/Baker/CU Boulder, CC BY-ND
Six line graphs that show how the temperature in the house and the energy used vary with the outdoor heat.
The researchers used the same three different HVAC technologies and three temperature-setting strategies, but this time for a house in hot and humid Atlanta.
Pigott/Scheib/Baker/CU Boulder, CC BY-ND

What we found was that even when the A/C temporarily spikes to recover from the higher indoor temperatures, the overall energy consumption in the setback cases is still less than when maintaining a constant temperature throughout the day. On an annual scale with a conventional central A/C, this could result in energy savings of up to 11%.

However, the energy savings may decrease if the home is better insulated, the A/C is more efficient or the climate has less dramatic temperature swings.

The central air source heat pump and minisplit heat pump are more efficient overall but yield less savings from temperature setbacks. An eight-hour setback on weekdays provides savings regardless of the system type, while the benefits gleaned from a four-hour setback are less straightforward.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Aisling Pigott, Ph.D. Student in Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder; Jennifer Scheib, Assistant Teaching Professor of Building Systems Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, and Kyri Baker, Assistant Professor of Building Systems Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 22.08.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area, EURUSD may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.0070. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to break 0.9980 and continue the downtrend.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed a Hammer reversal pattern during the correction. At the moment, the asset may reverse and form another rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 138.50. At the same time, the opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 136.50 and continue the uptrend only after the pullback.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the resistance area, EURGBP is reversing in the form of another bearish impulse. In this case, the downside target may be the support level at 0.8445. Later, the market may test this level, break it, and continue moving downwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, in which the asset may correct to reach 0.8520 first and then resume the descending tendency.

EURGBP
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 22.08.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, EURUSD is heading towards the “oversold area”. In this case, the price is expected to test 0/8, rebound from it, and then resume growing to reach the resistance at 1/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the support at 0/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling towards the next target at -1/8.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator is pretty far away from the price, that’s why the pair may resume trading upwards only after rebounding from 0/8 in the H4 chart.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, GBPUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a possible descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 1/8 and continue falling to reach the support at 0/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 2/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 4/8.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue its decline.

GBPUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.22

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0089
  • Prev Close: 1.0038
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.51%

Europe’s economy is at risk of recession due to threats of energy rationing, record inflation, and tighter monetary policy. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has become the region’s weak spot as its huge industrial base suffers from rising energy prices and persistent supply shortages. Supply managers’ indices, due out Tuesday, will tell traders whether the region’s economy is heading for a recession or not. The July ECB meeting minutes may indicate whether investors should prepare for another 50 basis point rate hike in September. But given widespread inflationary pressures, analysts are confident of such a hike, with about a third of analysts leaning toward a 75 basis point increase.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0033, 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050.

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The euro continues to lose ground. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0033, but with a confirmation in the form of reverse initiative. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 1.0112, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0230 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.08.22:
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1927
  • Prev Close: 1.1829
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.82%

According to analysts, the UK’s bleak economic outlook overshadows any gains that the British pound could get from a rapid rise in interest rates. Another record inflation figure last week prompted traders to bet that the Bank of England will more than double its key rate to 3.75%. Options traders remain decidedly bearish on the British currency. In theory, a rate hike should act as a tailwind for currencies and a headwind for bonds. But the UK has poor growth prospects, price pressures, and policy rate uncertainty.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1811
  • Resistance levels: 1.1903, 1.2000, 1.2035, 1.2167, 1.2215, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is now trading below the moving averages, indicating selling pressure. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are no signs of divergence. At the moment, it is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.1903, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1811, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2034 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 135.86
  • Prev Close: 136.89
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.76%

The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in late July sent the dollar index sharply higher, even though the Central Bank raised its interest rate by 75 basis points. Over the past three weeks, the Japanese yen has fallen against the dollar again as interest rate differentials and opposed monetary policy put upward pressure on the USD/JPY quotes. And no change is expected soon.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27, 131.08, 130.85
  • Resistance levels: 137.10, 138.25

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The USD/JPY quotes continue to grow steadily, breaking through all the resistance levels. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 135.89, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider the resistance level of 137.10, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 134.23, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2944
  • Prev Close: 1.2991
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.36%

Last week, the Canadian dollar suffered the same fate as the other currencies: the US dollar took the lead after markets reacted positively to the July Fed meeting minutes. Oil prices also declined over the week, which had a negative impact on the Canadian currency. But retail sales data helped the Canadian offset some of Friday’s losses, signaling a gradual and consistent improvement in the retail sector.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
  • Resistance levels: 1.3006

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. The buyers’ pressure is still there, but the price is traded before the resistance level, plus the divergence is getting stronger. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2900, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3006, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2858 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The economic outlook for Europe continues to deteriorate. The People’s Bank of China lowered interest rates again

By JustForex

The US stock indices were trading lower on Friday. By the closing of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-0.01% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.29% (-0.96% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.01% (-2.24% for the week). Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft all fell, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slowed the most. Higher rates tend to be negative for technology companies and growth stocks.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that US Central Bank officials still have plenty of time before they need to decide how much to raise interest rates in September. The recovery in US stocks is inspiring confidence among investors. The S&P 500 (US500) rebounded about 16% from its low after its worst first half since 1970, helped by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and hopes the economy can avoid a recession.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.12% (-2.19% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.94% (-1.32% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.09% (-1.05% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 0.11% (+0.66% for the week).

In the last few days, Europe has been hit by the rains. Water levels in a key German bottleneck on the Rhine River jumped, easing a crisis that has hampered energy and industrial production this month. An extended period of very hot and dry weather this summer drained Europe’s rivers, disrupting the transportation of goods and energy at a time when the region needs alternative energy sources instead of gas the most. This helped push natural gas prices to record highs, increasing inflationary pain for industries and households and threatening to push Germany into recession.

On Sunday, a senior ministry official said that energy-intensive industries in Italy are also modifying their production to save energy as they struggle with rising bills. Italy recently struck deals with several alternative gas-producing countries to reduce its dependence on Moscow. Those agreements allowed Rome to fill its gas storage facilities quickly, but it was not enough to protect its industry from skyrocketing energy prices.

Oil prices stabilized on Friday but fell over the week because of a stronger US dollar and fears that the economic slowdown would weaken demand for crude oil. The strengthening US dollar hit a five-week high, which limited the rise in oil prices as it makes oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies. Haitham al-Gais, the new secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, told Reuters he was optimistic about oil demand in 2023.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.04% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.32% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 1.17% for the week.

Earlier this year, the COVID-19 shutdown in China disrupted global supply chains, causing delays in shipments and production worldwide and hampering economic growth. Now the country faces another severe threat, and that threat could be even worse for the economy. This month, China is battling its worst heat wave in 60 years. In Sichuan province, home to more than 80 million people, the record-breaking heat wave has exacerbated an ongoing drought that has caused reservoir levels to drop by half this month. As a result, officials announced on Aug. 15 that factories in 19 cities and prefectures would be forced to close for five days to save power.

The People’s Bank Loan Prime Rate rate was cut for the second time in two weeks. The move comes as the bank struggles to stimulate the economy amid headwinds from COVID lockdowns, a debt-laden real estate market, and a looming energy crisis.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+5.84%) and cotton (+3.64%) showed the largest gains over the week. Futures on lumber (-12.23%), silver (-8.37%), platinum (-7.31%), wheat (-6.33%), orange juice (-5. 91%), palladium (-4.03%), coffee (-3.96%), sugar (-3.06%), gold (-3.04%), soybeans (-2.88%), WTI oil (-2.68%), and Brent oil (-2.1%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,228.48 −55.26 (−1.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,706.74 −292.30 (−0.86%)

DAX (DE40) 13,544.52 −152.89 (−1.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,550.37 +8.52 (+0.11%)

USD Index 108.10 +0.62 (+0.58%)

Important events for today:
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Large Bond Speculators drop 5-Year Bonds bets lower for 4th Week to 24-Week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: 5-Year Bonds bets hit 24-week low

COT bond market speculator bets were mixed on the week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds Futures (87,697 contracts) with the Eurodollar (16,102 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (14,667 contracts) and the Long US Bond (261 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-116,372 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-76,650 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-41,827 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-13,607 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures saw their speculator bets drop sharply again this week. The 5-Year fell for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks for an eight-week total decline by -363,294 contracts. This recent weakness has pushed the overall speculator standing to the lowest level since March 1st, a span of twenty-four weeks. Overall, the 5-Year market is now very close to the bottom of it’s 3-year speculator sentiment range (1.2 percent strength score on a scale of 0-100) and has seen that strength score fall by -37.4 percent over the past six weeks (6-week trend score).

The 5-Year Bond price has continued in a downtrend and it’s yield closed the week (yields rise when bond prices fall) higher around 3.09 percent. Currently, the 5-Year yield (3.09%) is inverted with the 10-Year yield (2.97%), meaning that the shorter bond pays more yield than the longer bond and overall, an unusual occurrence.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,585,91115-2,869,87703,208,50398-338,62630
FedFunds1,665,3655488,65851-93,150494,49271
2-Year2,124,68815-214,04839249,55374-35,50534
Long T-Bond1,167,91539-47,3256921,2071826,11873
10-Year3,520,46831-363,12817470,73278-107,60454
5-Year4,066,73055-467,3751621,46889-154,09339

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) continues to generate the highest spec strength score for bonds and just a edge up from last week’s score of 69.1 percent. The Fed Funds (50.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and the only other one above its 3-year midpoint of 50 percent. On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.3 percent), the 5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are all in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (50.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (39.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (47.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.8 percent)
Eurodollar (0.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed  that all of the bonds markets this week had negative trend scores. The Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) had the least negative trend score followed by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent). The most negative downside trend scores were led by the 5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) followed by the 10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent), the 2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent).

 

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-26.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Eurodollar (-9.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-13.4 percent)


Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,869,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,885,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.571.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.437.88.1
– Net Position:-2,869,8773,208,503-338,626
– Gross Longs:429,0276,835,497434,367
– Gross Shorts:3,298,9043,626,994772,993
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.398.429.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.610.3-13.0

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 88,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 87,697 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.671.02.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.376.62.3
– Net Position:88,658-93,1504,492
– Gross Longs:243,2641,183,00743,138
– Gross Shorts:154,6061,276,15738,646
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.648.671.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.9-0.630.8

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -214,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.580.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.669.29.1
– Net Position:-214,048249,553-35,505
– Gross Longs:180,8581,718,780158,017
– Gross Shorts:394,9061,469,227193,522
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.074.433.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.617.120.4

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -467,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -116,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -351,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.583.77.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.068.411.2
– Net Position:-467,375621,468-154,093
– Gross Longs:265,7413,402,691299,503
– Gross Shorts:733,1162,781,223453,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.289.038.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.426.4-1.0

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -363,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -76,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -286,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.081.59.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.368.212.5
– Net Position:-363,128470,732-107,604
– Gross Longs:209,8212,870,103332,003
– Gross Shorts:572,9492,399,371439,607
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.277.854.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.319.86.0

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.684.710.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.271.320.7
– Net Position:-32,000160,566-128,566
– Gross Longs:54,9651,016,979120,448
– Gross Shorts:86,965856,413249,014
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.581.541.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.43.7-3.3

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.676.814.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.774.912.2
– Net Position:-47,32521,20726,118
– Gross Longs:88,791896,481168,447
– Gross Shorts:136,116875,274142,329
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.218.273.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.4-0.316.2

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -374,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -361,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.082.511.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.357.98.3
– Net Position:-374,923337,61437,309
– Gross Longs:55,0631,133,222150,925
– Gross Shorts:429,986795,608113,616
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.380.255.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.025.33.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

See CFTC criteria here.

Sugar, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodity Speculator bets higher

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as nine out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (23,905 contracts) with Live Cattle (12,806 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,956 contracts), Corn (9,343 contracts), Cotton (7,985 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,809 contracts), Coffee (3,018 contracts), Cocoa (2,784 contracts) and Wheat (1,518 contracts) also having higher weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-5,718 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores with Coffee (67.8 percent), Corn (58.2 percent) and Live Cattle (56.3 percent) following. On the downside, Cocoa (14.9 percent) and Wheat (16.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
Corn (58.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (57.0 percent)
Sugar (46.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (42.0 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (39.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (89.9 percent)
Live Cattle (56.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.4 percent)
Cotton (50.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (45.7 percent)
Cocoa (14.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (16.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (51.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (9.0 percent), Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) and Cocoa (4.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Wheat (-13.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-12.9 percent) followed by Coffee (-11.5 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.7 percent)
Soybeans (-12.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.2 percent)
Live Cattle (51.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.9 percent)
Cotton (-4.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.9 percent)
Cocoa (4.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-11.7 percent)
Wheat (-13.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.5 percent)


Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 220,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.948.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.261.413.2
– Net Position:220,129-166,318-53,811
– Gross Longs:367,371642,350120,568
– Gross Shorts:147,242808,668174,379
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.248.212.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.25.9-0.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 49,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.253.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.562.27.7
– Net Position:49,970-61,83711,867
– Gross Longs:171,404396,58868,600
– Gross Shorts:121,434458,42556,733
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.956.422.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.94.412.5

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.752.15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.170.64.0
– Net Position:33,471-35,3181,847
– Gross Longs:45,06299,0689,438
– Gross Shorts:11,591134,3867,591
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.837.216.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.512.5-4.6

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.355.06.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.363.611.3
– Net Position:83,183-51,650-31,533
– Gross Longs:144,698327,09835,752
– Gross Shorts:61,515378,74867,285
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.568.117.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.912.50.5

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.554.97.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.266.55.7
– Net Position:40,963-46,7585,795
– Gross Longs:74,046220,23428,767
– Gross Shorts:33,083266,99222,972
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.170.835.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-5.16.9

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 112,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.839.711.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.772.56.0
– Net Position:112,163-135,85923,696
– Gross Longs:127,369164,27748,624
– Gross Shorts:15,206300,13624,928
– Long to Short Ratio:8.4 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.912.355.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-12.035.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.434.811.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.157.012.4
– Net Position:61,388-58,750-2,638
– Gross Longs:106,71391,93230,154
– Gross Shorts:45,325150,68232,792
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.332.872.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:51.8-52.3-11.1

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.431.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.352.312.9
– Net Position:58,006-49,401-8,605
– Gross Longs:102,20176,59222,371
– Gross Shorts:44,195125,99330,976
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.935.151.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.6-51.12.1

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.845.07.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.870.94.1
– Net Position:44,208-50,0785,870
– Gross Longs:68,97986,76713,871
– Gross Shorts:24,771136,8458,001
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.849.448.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.02.711.9

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.048.94.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.948.83.6
– Net Position:-2,7781802,598
– Gross Longs:89,997146,70413,549
– Gross Shorts:92,775146,52410,951
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.986.122.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-5.07.7

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.540.29.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.137.811.7
– Net Position:-1,9087,448-5,540
– Gross Longs:95,452126,00731,104
– Gross Shorts:97,360118,55936,644
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.670.381.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.49.718.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Energy Speculators push Heating Oil bets higher for 6th week to 42-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data (Week 33) is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: Week 33 – Heating Oil bets rise for 6th week

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (4,508 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (4,289 contracts), Gasoline (2,163 contracts) and Heating Oil (462 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-1,801 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-231 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil speculator contracts edged higher this week and rose for a sixth straight week. Speculator positions are now in bullish territory for the twelfth week after turning from bearish to bullish on May 31st. These increases have pushed the Heating Oil speculator standing to just about +25,000 contracts and to the highest level since October 26th of 2021, a span of forty-two weeks.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (79.1 percent) leads the energy currently and is up a bit from last week’s score of 78.4 percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores. On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) and Gasoline (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (53.8 percent)
Natural Gas (42.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.9 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.5 percent)
Heating Oil (79.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (27.1 percent) is getting the most love from speculators lately and leads the past six weeks trends for energy. Gasoline (19.7 percent), Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) and Natural Gas (2.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-23.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Natural Gas (2.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.2 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (13.4 percent)
Heating Oil (27.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (24.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-20.3 percent)


Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 214,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.341.05.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.556.43.5
– Net Position:214,940-239,29124,351
– Gross Longs:346,865638,97178,715
– Gross Shorts:131,925878,26254,364
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.199.748.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.317.50.9

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.750.84.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.031.43.1
– Net Position:-36,01234,2901,722
– Gross Longs:33,01789,8287,241
– Gross Shorts:69,02955,5385,519
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.850.332.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-5.07.0

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -120,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.342.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.633.83.0
– Net Position:-120,91182,86238,049
– Gross Longs:170,133415,17167,826
– Gross Shorts:291,044332,30929,777
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.357.070.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-2.9-1.2

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 47,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.348.17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.068.36.0
– Net Position:47,669-52,6304,961
– Gross Longs:81,394124,91920,499
– Gross Shorts:33,725177,54915,538
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.780.945.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-19.11.9

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.552.113.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.165.68.7
– Net Position:24,926-40,02215,096
– Gross Longs:46,048154,77241,070
– Gross Shorts:21,122194,79425,974
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.128.650.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.1-18.4-4.1

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.075.00.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.356.20.1
– Net Position:-12,88712,595292
– Gross Longs:15,33050,098339
– Gross Shorts:28,21737,50347
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 17.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.241.721.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.720.61.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.