Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 99

China’s central bank has lowered its interest rate. Bank of England prepares to raise borrowing costs

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices did not trade yesterday due to the bank holiday.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently a 74% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in late July. But then the markets see a 78% chance that rates will remain unchanged.

The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken concluded his visit to Beijing on Monday with a surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The latter stressed the importance of sustained relations between the two countries after a period of simmering tensions. During the meeting at the State Guest House, Xi said that the world needs a “generally stable” Sino-American relationship. Xi Jinping also added that the future and fate of humanity depend on whether the two countries can find the right path. The Chinese foreign minister also urged Washington to abandon the so-called “China threat theory” and lift sanctions against Beijing and no longer stifle China’s technological development.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.96%, French CAC 40 (FR 40) lost 1.01%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.66%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) fell by 0.71% yesterday.

The Eurozone will get its first view of how June is shaping up in terms of economic activity when the PMI data is released on Friday. Last month’s reports were dismal, as surveys showed slower growth in services and sharper declines in manufacturing. On the positive side was a decline in inflation expectations. And so far, there are few signs that activity has increased.

After some unwelcome inflation and wage data, markets now expect the Bank of England to raise rates above 5% in the coming months, even though inflation forecasts point to a marked reduction in price pressures over the summer.

Crude oil prices fell Monday on concerns that a fragile economic recovery in China will hit demand from the world’s biggest crude importer in the second half of the year. But from a broader perspective, the analyst community still expects significant shortages in the coming months.

Uncertainty over interest rate hikes combined with mixed signals of a potential recession this year kept gold in a tight trading range last month. Gold came under pressure after the US Federal Reserve raised its peak rate. Gold has an inverse correlation with the US dollar and government bond yields. Tightening monetary policy tends to push the dollar higher and push government bond yields higher, which is negative for precious metals. But analysts believe that since the US Federal Reserve is at the end of its tightening cycle, gold has a good chance of rising before the end of the year.

Asian markets traded mostly in negative territory yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 1.00% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.64% by Monday’s close, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.60% by the day.

China cut its benchmark interest rate (LPR) by 10 basis points as Beijing struggled to support the country’s slowing economic recovery. But the move sent a somewhat negative signal to metals markets, given that it underscores the deepening cracks in the Chinese economy, despite the reversal of anti-COVID measures earlier this year.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Michelle Bullock said the unemployment rate needs to rise to about 4.5% from its current level of 3.6% to bring the economy back into balance. According to the politician, this will help contain inflation and avoid further rate hikes and a deep recession.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,409.59 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,299.12 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 16,201.20 −156.43 (−0.96%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,588.48 −54.24 (−0.71%)

USD Index 102.52 +0.28 (+0.27%)

Important events for today:
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Bullard Speaks at 13:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Williams Speaks at 18:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Xi-Blinken meeting: Emerging markets hold growing appeal amid US-China rivalry

By George Prior 

The heightening US-China rivalry is fuelling international investors’ interest in emerging markets, according to the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The analysis from Nigel Green of deVere comes as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday, amid simmering U.S.-China tensions.

He comments: “The intensifying rivalry between the US and China has significant implications for global markets.

“While this rivalry creates uncertainties and challenges, it also presents opportunities, particularly in emerging markets.

“Our consultants around the world have experienced a significant surge in interest from international investors about these dynamic economies as they seek diversification, growth potential, and reduced exposure to geopolitical tensions.”

The soaring demand from global investors about increasing their exposure to emerging market opportunities comes as tensions rooted in a combination of economic, geopolitical, and ideological factors between the world’s two largest economies and major superpowers continue to make international headlines.

“The economic dimension is a fundamental aspect of the rivalry. China’s rapid rise as a global economic powerhouse and its pursuit of industrial policies that include state subsidies, intellectual property concerns, and market access restrictions have generated tensions with the United States,” explains Nigel Green.

“The US accuses China of unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and a lack of reciprocity in market access.”

The rising rivalry also stems from competing geopolitical ambitions. China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aimed at expanding its global influence through infrastructure projects, and its military modernisation have raised concerns among US policymakers.

“The US sees China’s rising influence as a challenge to its own status as a global superpower.”

Technological competition is a critical aspect of the rivalry. The deVere chief executive notes: “Both countries are vying for dominance in emerging technologies like 5G, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing.

“The US has expressed concerns over China’s strategic acquisition of technology, intellectual property theft, and forced technology transfer, leading to initiatives like export controls, investment restrictions, and heightened scrutiny of Chinese tech companies.”

National security considerations also play a significant role in the rivalry with the US viewing China’s military upgrades, cyber espionage activities, and perceived threats to its allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region as potential challenges to its strategic interests.

One of the key reasons international investors find emerging markets attractive during the US-China rivalry is diversification.

“The rivalry between these two economic giants often generates volatility in global markets, making it sensible for investors to seek alternative investment destinations. Emerging markets provide precisely that,’ affirms Nigel Green.

“By increasing exposure to these economies, investors can reduce their dependency on the performance and fluctuations of US and Chinese markets and, therefore, spread risk across a broader range of regions and industries.”

In addition, emerging markets offer vast growth potential, driven by factors such as expanding populations, rising middle-class populations, and increasing urbanisation.

“These countries present investment opportunities in sectors such as tech, infrastructure, healthcare, and renewable energy – where significant growth opportunities are happening.”

The CEO also emphasises that “non-aligned” economies are also piquing interest among global investors.

“As the rivalry between the US and China escalates, non-aligned states emerge as safe havens, relatively insulated from the direct impact of the tensions,” observes Nigel Green.

“With stable political environments and lower exposure to global power struggles, frontier markets offer investors a degree of stability and reduced risk associated with the US-China rivalry.”

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, are often viewed as non-aligned or neutral in the US-China rivalry.

Several countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, can also be considered non-aligned markets.

Similarly, African nations, including Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia, and Central and Eastern European ones, such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic.

He concludes: “It’s our experience that investors are increasingly involved in geopolitical hedging.

“These dynamic economies provide avenues to navigate the changing global landscape and capitalise on the potential rewards that emerge amid the ongoing and heightening rivalry.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

George Soros hands control over his family’s philanthropy to son Alex, after giving away billions and enduring years of antisemitic attacks and conspiracy theories

By Armin Langer, University of Florida 

Billionaire investor and philanthropist George Soros is handing control of his US$25 billion holdings, including his Open Society Foundations, to one of his sons, Alexander Soros.

As a sociologist who researches immigrants and minorities in Europe and conspiracy theories about them, I study how Soros became a scapegoat and bogeyman for nationalists and populists and a target of people who harbor and spread antisemitic beliefs.

Baseless conspiracy theories have at times clouded his legacy as one of the world’s biggest donors to causes like higher education, human rights and the democratization of Europe’s formerly communist countries.

Success followed early hardship

Born in 1930 to a Hungarian Jewish family, Soros survived the Nazi occupation and the Holocaust. After World War II, he moved from Budapest to the United Kingdom, where he studied at the London School of Economics while working part time in low-wage jobs. He immigrated to the United States in 1956 and became a U.S. citizen five years later.

In the 1970s, Soros became a successful investor and hedge fund manager. By the 1990s he had amassed a fortune and established himself as one of the world’s most important financiers.

But his dedication to philanthropy and his support for political freedom are what brought him the most attention.

Deep-pocketed philanthropy

In the 1980s, Soros began to contribute to several Eastern European political and social movements that sought to replace communist states with democratic societies. Recognizing the importance of grassroots movements and the power of individuals to bring about change, his support enabled many activists to challenge oppression and advocate for human rights.

He also donated heavily to support education.

Soros’ first philanthropic foray was in 1979, when he funded scholarships for Black students in apartheid South Africa. In the 1980s, he helped promote the exchange of ideas in Communist Hungary by funding visits of Hungarian liberal intellectuals to Western universities.

When he gave $250 million in 2001 to the Central European University in Budapest, it represented, at that time, the continent’s largest higher education endowment.

Soros founded what’s now called the Open Society Foundations in 1993. The name of this international grant-making network was inspired by Karl Popper’s 1945 book “The Open Society and Its Enemies.” Popper argued that individuals thrive in open societies, because they can freely express themselves and test their ideas, while closed societies lead to stagnation.

The broad goal of much of Soros’ philanthropy is to support tolerant societies with governments that are accountable and allow everyone to campaign, protest, donate to candidates they like or even run for office themselves.

Soros’ foundations today support human rights organizations in more than 100 countries. Its initiatives take aim at a wide range of global problems, such as public health emergencies to low economic growth rates in low-income countries.

Soros remains on Bloomberg’s list of the 500 wealthiest people, with a personal net worth in excess of $7 billion as of 2023. But his fortune would have been far larger had he not given some $32 billion to the Open Society Foundations since 1984.

Antisemitic conspiracy myths

The Open Society Foundations’ support for progressive initiatives such as America Votes and Demand Justice have angered many conservatives who don’t agree with the goals of those causes.

Soros’ wealth and influence have also made him a target of numerous conspiracy theories. He’s been demonized as a shadowy puppet master manipulating world events for his own gain. Such baseless accusations often target his Jewish heritage, invoking hatemongering and centuries-old antisemitic tropes.

During the 2015 influx of Syrian refugees in Europe, for example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused Soros of a vicious plan of facilitating a supposedly “Islamic takeover of Europe” with the Syrian immigrants.

Former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico blamed Soros for being behind press freedom protests in his country after the murder of the investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée in 2018.

In 2015, the far-right party All-Polish Youth burned an effigy of Soros dressed as a Hasidic Jew holding an EU flag, even though the philanthropist was raised by a family that was not religious, has never dressed in the style of the ultra-Orthodox Hasidic sect and has not been a major supporter of Jewish causes.

As I explained in a book chapter about nationalism and populism, U.S. conspiracy theories have hounded Soros for years as well. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, a California politician who is now speaker of the House, accused Soros of trying to buy the 2018 midterm elections. National Rifle Association leader Wayne LaPierre accused Soros of planning a socialist takeover of the U.S. in 2018, evoking antisemitic myths from the early 20th century about a Jewish-Bolshevik plot.

That same year, then-President Donald Trump falsely tweeted that Soros was financing the demonstrations against Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment as a Supreme Court justice.

These baseless theories have also inspired extremists to act on them: In 2010, a far-right extremist plotted to attack the progressive San Francisco-based Tides Foundation. His plot failed and ended in a shootout with police officers, and the man was sentenced to 401 years in prison. The extremist falsely believed that Soros used Tides “for all kinds of nefarious activities.”

In 2018, another extremist sent a pipe bomb to Soros’ home in a New York City suburb. Nobody was hurt, but the person responsible was sentenced to 20 years in prison.

Many other far-right extremists have tried to justify their attacks on Jews and other minorities with anti-Soros conspiracy theories – including the man who murdered 10 Black Americans at a supermarket in 2022.

A complex legacy

Not all criticism of Soros is antisemitic.

While I do believe that Soros’ support for freedom and his commitment to empowering marginalized communities are praiseworthy, I also think it’s reasonable to question the sources of his wealth and the methods he employed to accumulate it.

As is true for all billionaires, the Soros family fortune helps perpetuate a system of income inequality and concentrated political influence in the hands of the world’s wealthiest people. I believe that this outsize clout interferes with true democracy.

George Soros has certainly funded work through charitable donations that has fostered democratic values. But his financial support in the political realm, which includes gifts for major Democratic political causes and candidates, such as former U.S. President Barack Obama, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden, have to a degree made him a polarizing figure.

When megadonors of any political preference make big donations to a candidate or party, their gifts can shape the agenda and distort democratic processes.

In his first interview as the new chair of Open Society Foundations, 37-year-old Alex Soros told The Wall Street Journal that he is “more political” than his father and that he’s likely to make political donations that advance voting rights and abortion rights.

It’s still not clear how Soros’ son aims to put a stop to the demonization of the family’s philanthropic work.The Conversation

About the Author:

Armin Langer, Assistant Professor of European Studies, University of Florida

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The ECB will continue to tighten policy until the autumn. Oil prices are rising on strong data from China

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.26%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 1.22%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.15% on Thursday.

The US Treasury bond yields fell after data showed that US jobless claims jumped to their highest level in nearly two years. Despite signs of a downturn in the labor market, the latest retail sales data, which were unexpectedly positive, suggests that the average consumer remains in good shape.

Equity markets in Europe traded without a single trend yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.13%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.51%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.10%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.34% yesterday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates to a 22-year high, as expected. The ECB interest rate rose from 3.75% to 4.00%. The central bank expects inflation to remain above the 2% target through 2025 and once again hinted at further rate hikes in the coming months. In the latest macroeconomic forecasts, ECB staff now expects overall inflation to be 5.4% this year, 3% in 2024, and 2.2% in 2025. Core inflation is expected to be 5.1%, 3%, and 2.3%, respectively. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde departed slightly from the ECB’s recent strategy, focusing on forward projections and applying a meeting-by-meeting approach.

Oil was up by 3% yesterday due to strong data from China as well as dollar weakness. Chinese refinery productivity was up by 15.4% in May from a year ago, reaching the second-highest level on record. Oil demand in China is expected to continue growing at a guaranteed rate in the second half of the year. Analysts expect the voluntary oil production cuts implemented in May by OPEC countries as well as Saudi Arabia to support oil prices at a time of strong demand.

A Turkish energy delegation will meet with representatives of Iraqi oil companies in Baghdad on June 19 to discuss resuming Iraq’s northern oil exports. Turkey suspended 450,000 barrels of Iraq’s northern exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline on March 25 following an International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration ruling.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.05% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up by 1.82%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 2.17%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive by 0.19%.

The Bank of Japan maintained an ultra-soft monetary policy on Friday, despite stronger-than-expected inflation, as it focused on supporting a fragile economic recovery amid a sharp slowdown in global growth. As price growth shows signs of expanding, markets are focused on whether Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will issue a stronger warning about the risk of overshooting inflation at his press conference.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,425.84 +53.25 (+1.22%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,408.06 +428.73 (+1.26%)

DAX (DE40) 16,290.12 −20.67 (−0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,628.26 +25.52 (+0.34%)

USD Index 102.16 −0.79 (−0.77%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Waller Speaks at 14:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: Powell’s Testimony May Move These 3 Markets

By ForexTime 

Global financial markets could see increased volatility over the coming week due to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to Congress.

Attention will also fall on key central bank decisions including the Bank of England coupled with Fed speeches and top-tier economic data from major economies:

Monday, June 19

  • AUD: RBA meeting minutes

Tuesday, June 20

  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • JPY: Japan industrial production
  • USD: Fed speeches

Wednesday, June 21

  • EUR: Eurozone new car registrations
  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • GBP: UK May CPI
  • USD: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testimony

Thursday, June 22

  • CHF: Swiss National Bank rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • GBP: BoE rate decision
  • USD: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testimony, Fed speech

Friday, June 23

  • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI
  • JPY: Japan CPI
  • GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
  • USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speech

Just one week after the FOMC meeting brought a hawkish tilt on the rates outlook, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be under the spotlight again. 

Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary-policy report to the House Financial Service Committee on Wednesday 21st June and Senate Banking Committee on Thursday 22nd June. Powell is widely expected to reiterate comments from his post-Fed meeting press conference, which were cautious but still opened doors for more rate hikes. Indeed, the latest dot plot indicates two more 25 basis point rate hikes in the coming months but markets think otherwise with traders only pricing in one more for 2023.

Given how markets remain highly sensitive to rate hike expectations, his testimony has the potential to spark volatility – especially if fresh clues are offered on the Fed’s next move.

With all of the above discussed, here’s how these 3 assets could react to Powell’s testimony:

  • USD Index 

Despite receiving a boost earlier in the week from a hawkish Federal Reserve, the dollar has found itself under renewed selling pressure thanks to disappointing US economic data. This has raised questions over just how much further the Fed can raise interest rates despite the dot plot signalling two more 25 basis point hikes in the coming months.

  • The dollar could weaken further if Powell strikes a cautious tone during Testimony, which could drag prices toward 101.50 and 100.72, respectively.
  • Should Powell sound more hawkish and offer fresh clues on rate hike timings, this may offer support to the dollar, pushing prices back above 103.00.

 

  •     SPX500_m 

The SPX500_m is en route to ending the week at levels not seen in 14 months as disappointing economic data fuelled expectations around the Fed’s hiking campaign coming to an end. SPX500 bulls are certainly in a position with power with the index gaining over 15% year-to-date.

  • The SPX500_m could extend gains towards 4500 in the coming week if Powell sounds cautious and expresses concerns over the US economic outlook.
  • If the Fed head suggests that US rates are likely to stay higher for longer, this may cap the SPX500_m upside gains – encouraging a decline back towards 4351 higher low.

  • Gold 

Gold still remains trapped within a range with support at $1932 and resistance at $1985. A potent fundamental spark may be required for prices to experience a decisive breakout.

  • Gold prices could push above the $1985 resistance level on growing market expectations around the Fed’s hiking cycle coming to an end. This may be fuelled by cautious remarks from Powell or Fed officials.
  • Prices could sink back towards the $1932 and $1900 if Powell’s testimony boosts the dollar and renews rate hike bets.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Why the Federal Reserve’s epic fight against inflation might be over

By Ryan Herzog, Gonzaga University 

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady signals that central bankers believe it is time to hit pause, at least temporarily, on their aggressive campaign to tame runaway inflation.

The latest data, not to mention several other factors, however, suggests it’s time for a full stop.

On June 14, 2023, the Fed chose not to lift rates for the first time in 11 meetings, leaving its target interest rate – a benchmark for borrowing costs across the global economy – at a range of 5% to 5.25%. Over 10 consecutive hikes beginning in March 2022, the Fed had raised rates a whopping 5 percentage points.

“Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” the central bank said in a statement. The Fed indicated it still expects to raise rates two more times by the end of the year.

As an economist who follows the central bank’s actions closely, I believe there’s good reason to think the Fed’s brief hiatus is likely to turn into a permanent vacation.

Inflation is lower than it appears

The fastest rate of inflation since the 1980s is what prompted the Fed to hike interest rates so much. So it makes sense that inflation would be a key indicator of when its job is complete.

The latest consumer price index data, released on June 13, showed core inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices – falling to an annual rate of 5.3% in May 2023, the slowest pace since November 2021. That’s down from a peak of 6.6% in September 2022.

While the data shows inflation remains well above the Fed’s target of around 2%, there’s good reason to believe that it will continue to fall regardless of what the Fed does.

Shelter, a measure of the cost of owning or renting a home, is the largest component of the consumer price index, accounting for more than one-third of the total. In its latest report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported shelter costs rose 8% from a year ago. After stripping that out, inflation was up just 2.1%.

The thing is, the data reported by the bureau doesn’t reflect the reality of what’s happening in the current housing market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics relies on a survey that gauges rental prices from 50,000 leases, many of which were signed during the rental bubble in 2021 and 2022. A better measure of current market rents is the Zillow Observed Rent Index. That index suggests rates are declining – rents rose 4.8% year over year in May, aligning with pre-pandemic rates.

Comparing the two measures suggests the official consumer price index data lags behind the market by four to six months. Using current rents would put inflation much closer to where the Fed wants it to be. Jason Furman, former chair of the government’s Council of Economic Advisors, created a modified version of core inflation – which uses a market-based measure of shelter prices – at 2.6%.

The risk of more rate hikes

Moreover, it is likely that further rate hikes will do more harm than good – particularly to the banking sector – and without helping lower inflation below its current trajectory.

Several regional lenders, including Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic, collapsed earlier this year following bank runs. Combined, they had over a half-trillion dollars in assets.

While there were several factors behind the banks’ demise, an important one was the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, which caused the value of many of their assets to fall. The banks catered to depositors with accounts that exceeded the US$250,000 threshold protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. These depositors ran for the hills when they learned about the extent of the bank losses.

This turmoil, in tandem with higher rates, is also cooling business activity. This means the Fed doesn’t need to go as high on rates as it otherwise would have.

Further troubles loom over the banking sector. In recent days, notable figures in the finance industry, such as Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, have warned that nearly $1.5 trillion in commercial real estate loans will require refinancing over the next three years.

The combination of already high interest rates and low office occupancy rates will likely force banks to absorb hundreds of billions of dollars in loan losses, inevitably putting more banks on the brink of failure.

And if the Fed keeps raising rates, the situation is likely to get a lot worse.

Don’t make the same mistakes

The Fed was behind the curve in 2021 and 2022 in realizing inflation was getting out of control, and it has been historically slow in recognizing the impact of rental rates on inflation.

The June pause in raising rates should give the Fed time to take a break, look at the data and, I hope, realize inflation is closer to its target than it appears.

But if it continues to raise rates, I believe the central bank will be repeating the same mistakes it made in the past.The Conversation

About the Author:

Ryan Herzog, Associate Professor of Economics, Gonzaga University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

The US Fed has taken a hawkish stance again. New Zealand is entering a technical recession

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.68% at the stock market’s close yesterday, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Wednesday positive by 0.39%.

The US Federal Reserve expectedly left rates unchanged yesterday at 5.25% but predicted further increases at the next meetings. The Fed now sees its peak rate at 5.6% in mid-2023, up from its previous forecast of 5.1% in March, which suggests two more hikes.

The main points from Jerome Powell’s speech at yesterday’s press conference:

  • The FOMC is committed to getting inflation back to 2.0% to achieve price stability.
  • The rate was raised to 5% from March 2022 through May 2023, which is a statistically unconventionally fast “move,” but given the data coming in, the FOMC has decided to move at a more moderate pace and consider raising the rate at future meetings.
  • Given the lag in the effect of monetary policy, a rate hike in July 2023 depends on many variables, so the FOMC is closely watching labor market conditions, inflation data and financial sector conditions over a 3-month period.
  • The FOMC does not see the effects of stress in the banking sector.
  • The expected median rate at the end of 2023 is 5.6%,2024 is 4.6%, and 2025 is 3.4%.
  • Asset reduction in Treasury securities will continue (QT-quantitative tightening).

BofA Global Research said it now expects two more quarter percentage point interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve this year, raising its final rate forecast to 5.5%-5.75%.

Amazon (AMZN) is considering using AMD’s artificial intelligence (AMD) chips in its cloud business.

Stock markets in Europe were mainly up Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) jumped by 1.20%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.10% yesterday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will almost certainly raise borrowing costs today and leave room for further increases as it continues to fight high inflation, even as the Eurozone economy weakens. More Eurozone countries are signaling a technical recession (2 consecutive declines in GDP per quarter). Eurozone’s inflation is still high for the ECB at 6.1%, more than three times its target of 2%, and core prices, which excludes food and energy, are only beginning to slow. Economists expect another 0.25% increase in July before the ECB pauses in fall 2023.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.47% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up by 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.58%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive by 0.32%.

The Japanese yen fell to an 8-month low against the dollar amid hawkish statements from the US Federal Reserve. The Japanese government is once again talking about currency intervention. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary pointed out that excessive fluctuations in the currency are undesirable, with a senior currency official saying that the government would take action if necessary. Last year the weakening of the yen to 146 yen per dollar triggered the first intervention.

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2023. This is the second consecutive quarterly decline in GDP, indicating that New Zealand has entered a technical recession. The contraction was caused by a decline in manufacturing, which fell by 3.5%, and transportation, port, and warehouse services, which fell by 2.2%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its benchmark rate to a 14-year high at its May meeting, and it was probably the last increase this year.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,372.59 +3.58 (+0.082%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,979.33 −232.79 (−0.68%)

DAX (DE40) 16,310.79 +80.11 (+0.49%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,602.74 +7.96 (+0.10%)

USD Index 103.02 -0.32 (-0.31%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US Federal Reserve must now stop rate hikes: deVere CEO

By George Prior 

The US Federal Reserve must now stop interest rate hikes due to the “notorious time lag” of monetary policy, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset managers and fintech organizations.

The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as the US central bank’s Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday announced after a meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) – the branch of the Fed responsible for implementing monetary policy – that it would skip raising rates this month, as was widely anticipated, but will resume after this pause.

He says: “After a painful 15 months and 10 consecutive rate increases into its battle to cool red-hot inflation, the Fed has confirmed what markets had expected: that it is not raising rates this month in the world’s largest economy right now.

“This clearly indicates that the fight to combat soaring prices is, finally, being won.

“This is good news for households, businesses and those financial assets hit by the most aggressive monetary policy since the 1980s.”

However, the Fed isn’t done with raising rates at this point.

“This pause is just a ‘skip’, as we expected.

“Both core and headline inflation are coming down, but core is still pretty high. The target of 2% is still way off. And the Fed is obsessing over the tightness of the labor market as, despite the 15-month-long inflation battle, unemployment is still near record lows.

“As such, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if rates were hiked to 6% by the end of 2023.”

As the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes this year, Nigel Green is issuing a warning to the US central bank.

“The battle against inflation is being won. This is now the time for the Fed to stop – not pause – interest rate hikes.

He says: “The time lag for monetary policies is notoriously long.

“It typically takes about 18 months to two years for the full effect of rate hikes to filter fully into the economy.

“We’re now beginning to see the drag effects on the world’s largest economy with households and businesses becoming considerably more cautious.”

He continues: “Investors are increasingly concerned that with more hikes the Federal Reserve could steer the US economy into a major recession.

“Of course, the central bank will argue it needs to continue with rate rises to bring inflation back to target.

“But it must also ensure that the tight labor market doesn’t overshadow the broader picture and continue to overdo the hikes, which would make a US recession deeper and longer.

“As the world’s largest economy, this would clearly have a serious, negative impact on the global economy.”

He concludes: “The case for stopping rate hikes is compelling.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Inflation continues to decline in major economies. The Japanese index reached a 33-year-high

By JustMarkets

As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.43%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.69%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Tuesday positive by 0.83%.

The US consumer prices fell from 5.5% to 5.3% year-over-year. Core inflation fell sharply from 4.9% to 4%. This was the eleventh consecutive month of decline in overall inflation and the lowest level since early 2021, but it is still double the Fed’s stated target of 2%. The US inflation data raised the odds of the Fed pausing to raise rates today from 81% to 93%. The US factory inflation (PPI) data will be released today.

Since investor expectations today are mostly for a rate pause scenario, more attention will be paid to policy recommendations and fresh economic forecasts to determine what happens next. The Fed’s more data-driven stance and policy flexibility language could be seen as less hawkish. On the other hand, if the interest rate forecast is revised upward along with inflation estimates, this could lead to a longer-term interest rate outlook and revive hawkish fears.

Stock markets in Europe mostly rose Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) was up by 0.83%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.56%, Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) lost 0.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on the plus side by 0.32% yesterday.

Germany’s inflation rate fell from 7.2% to 6.1% year-on-year. Inflation in Europe’s largest economy continues to decline but remains three times higher than the ECB’s target level. Food prices are still the biggest driver of inflation.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said yesterday that inflation in the country would continue to decline, but it will take longer. Strong labor market data yesterday bolstered investor confidence that the Bank of England will hold at least two more 0.25% rate hikes.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.80% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.60%, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive by 0.23%. Most Asian stock indices rose Wednesday as weak US inflation data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will suspend its interest-rate hike cycle.

Japan’s Nikkei (JP225) hit new 33-year highs. Sentiment for Japanese stocks was largely supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-soft policy this Friday.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.9%, which was previously at 2%. The Chinese government is taking additional stimulus measures to support the slowing global economic recovery. The move raised fears about how deep the economic cracks in China were after three years of blockage due to Covid-19.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,369.01 +30.08 (+0.69%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,212.12 +145.79 (+0.43%)

DAX (DE40) 16,230.68 +132.81 (+0.83%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,594.78 +24.09 (+0.32%)

USD Index 103.28 -0.37 (-0.36%)

Important events for today:
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Inventories (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Monetary Policy Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

US inflation: The Fed isn’t done with rate hikes yet

By George Prior

The latest US inflation report suggests that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate hikes tomorrow (Wednesday), but investors need to “stay grounded” as more rate rises are likely this year.

This is the warning from Nigel Green, the CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, as the Bureau of Labour Statistics releases the US CPI data today showing that inflation rose at a 4% annual rate in May, which is the lowest in 2 years.

He says: “Tuesday’s report shows again that the prices rises, which have been hitting consumers, businesses and financial assets for two years, are decelerating.  The 12-month increase was the smallest since March 2021.

“It’s a feel-good headline figure that will cheer investors as it will add further pressure on the Fed to pause its interest rate hike agenda.

“The US central bank is now 15 months and 10 consecutive rate increases into its battle to cool red-hot inflation, but markets will be expecting that the latest CPI report will now be enough to convince officials to hit the pause button.”

The deVere CEO expects that other sectors which have “been outperformed so far in 2023” by mega-cap tech stocks are likely to get a boost should the Fed, as is anticipated, pause rate hikes this week following the CPI data.

“This will firmly signal that progress is being made in the battle to cool inflation and this will buoy investors across the board, finally providing a boost to sectors which have been unloved so far this year.”

As such, investors should be speaking to an advisor about the “possibility of an opportunity-packed new rally if the Fed, as is expected, pauses rate hikes this week.”

However, Nigel Green also issues a warning: “Investors need to stay grounded as despite a possible pause, more rate rises are likely this year, which would be a negative shock to stock markets.

“Inflation is certainly coming down so far, but it is very, very gradual. It remains sticky and a long way from the 2% target, largely due to a tight labor market.

“Therefore, investors need to brace for at least another interest rate hike this year, even if the Fed skips this one.”

Diversification remains investors’ best tool for long-term financial success. As a strategy it has been proven to reduce risk, smooth-out volatility, exploit differing market conditions, maximise long-term returns and protect against unforeseen external events.

“The likely market relief rally that is expected if the Fed pauses could provide important opportunities for investors, but they shouldn’t get overconfident that this is the end of the most aggressive monetary policy since the 1980s.

“The Fed isn’t done yet,” notes the deVere Group CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.