Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 90

Inflationary pressures continue to ease in Germany. The Bank of Japan maintained its soft monetary policy

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.58%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.16% yesterday. Stock indices rose moderately on Monday on the back of a falling dollar, as well as positive corporate news and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals. Pressure on the US dollar is also being exerted by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave its monetary policy unchanged at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Markets are betting a zero probability that the FOMC will raise rates at its next meeting and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at its next meeting on December 12-13.

Western Digital shares are up more than 7% after the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and announced its intention to split into two public companies. Additionally, shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) closed higher by more than 3%, adding to last Friday’s 7% gain after Guotai Junan Securities raised the company’s price target to $162.80 per share.

The Dallas Fed’s US manufacturing activity index for October unexpectedly fell by 1.1 to minus 19.2, weaker than expectations for a rise to minus 16.0.

Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem urged elected officials to consider the inflationary implications of their spending plans as the Central Bank tries to cool price pressures. Macklem cited slower economic growth and higher interest rates as factors affecting future government budgets. Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will deliver a financial report in the coming weeks.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.44% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.50%.

The Eurozone Economic Confidence Index for October fell by 0.1 to 93.3, which was better than expectations of 93.0. German Q3 GDP declined by 0.1% QoQ, stronger than expectations of 0.2% QoQ. The German Consumer Price Index (EU harmonized) for October declined from 4.3% to 3.0% y/y, better than expectations of 3.3% y/y and the lowest inflation rate in 2 years.

ECB Governing Council representative Kazimir said yesterday that forecasts for ECB interest rate cuts in the first half of next year are completely misplaced, and the ECB will have to stay on the cusp over the next few quarters. In contrast, his counterpart, Simkus, believes that the ECB will not raise interest rates at its December meeting, saying that current restrictive levels are sufficient.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 3% yesterday as Israeli military action in the Gaza Strip proceeded at a more cautious pace than expected, easing fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East. In addition, Iran’s foreign ministry said on Monday that Hamas has pledged to release non-Israeli hostages as soon as possible.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.95%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.04% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.79% on Monday. On Tuesday, Asian stocks fell to near one-year lows amid disappointing Chinese manufacturing activity data, while the yen fell to 150 per dollar after the Bank of Japan changed its policy to control bond yields.

At its meeting, the BoJ left the short-term interest rate at minus 0.1% and said it would use the top end of the YCC’s 1% range as the reference limit for its market operations. The move reflects a slight shift to tight YCC policy and may signal some greater flexibility. The BoJ also said it will continue asset purchases and quantitative easing to stimulate the economy, citing continued uncertainty over rising inflation and deteriorating global economic conditions. The statement indicated that the Bank is trying to maintain a balance between supporting the Japanese economy, curbing further weakening of the yen, and simultaneously combating rising inflation. The BoJ also said it expects core consumer inflation to remain above the 2% target through fiscal 2024 and that risks to prices are skewed upward in fiscal 2023.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,166.82 +49.45 (+1.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,928.96 +511.37 (+1.58%)

DAX (DE40)  14,716.54 +29.13 (+0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,291.28 +36.11 (+0.50%)

USD Index  106.14 −0.42 (−0.40%)

News feed for 2023.10.31:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

We expect a market rally for the end of 2023: deVere CEO

By George Prior

Global financial markets are likely to rally in November and December, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The bullish prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes despite stock market corrections and weak investor sentiment.

He says: “History shows that November is the second-best month of the year for markets, behind April.

“This November could be even more positive as some markets are currently in correction territory – falling by more than 10% – and so a swing to the upside will be more pronounced.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Over 72 years there have been 34 market declines. Only 12 of these have turned into bear markets. When does a recovery typically happen? 96 days after the start of the correction. We’re now around day 90.

“If all this data holds up, we’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on.”

In addition, Nigel Green says that he expects the Federal Reserve will leave US interest rates unchanged this week.

“Investors will be watching this carefully, but the central bank of the world’s largest economy is almost certainly going to hold rates steady on Wednesday, which will be bullish for stock markets.”

Should stock markets emerge from correction territory, investors should consider a few prudent strategies.

First and foremost, maintaining a diversified portfolio remains crucial, as it helps spread risk and minimise exposure to sector-specific fluctuations. Reassess your investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon to ensure your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives.

Sectors that could appeal to investors as markets recover include tech and renewable energy. These sectors have demonstrated resilience and potential for growth even during market downturns.

Additionally, consider allocating funds to undervalued industries that may benefit from economic rebounds, such as travel and leisure, as pent-up consumer demand surges.

Lastly, monitoring the broader economic and geopolitical landscape is vital for informed decision-making, as global events can significantly impact market dynamics. Diversification, research, and a strategic outlook are key as markets exit correction territory.

The deVere CEO concludes: “We expect a rally for the end of 2023. You should consider revising your investment mix to seize the potential opportunities in what we think will be a new phase.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Japan is setting the stage for a monetary policy review. Falling tech companies are dragging the broad market

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday’s 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company’s cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

Stocks also declined yesterday due to tensions in the Middle East following a report that Israel conducted a limited tank invasion of the Gaza Strip before withdrawing troops. Markets expect an all-out ground attack by Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the war to include Hezbollah.

The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, with households and construction contributing significantly to growth. However, the unfavorable factors facing the economy and the household sector in particular are intensifying, so economists expect growth to slow to 1.5% in the last three months of the year. Also strong is the 4.7% rise in US durable goods orders for September, which is much stronger than expectations of rising by 1.9%. US weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations for a rise to 207,000.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.38% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.81%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations: the deposit rate at 4.00% and the main refinancing rate at 4.50%. Markets had expected the ECB to suspend its rate hike regime on Thursday, given the weakness in the eurozone economy and the recent rise in European bond yields. There is only a 5% chance of an ECB rate hike at the December meeting, but markets are forecasting an ECB rate cut in 2024.

Natural gas prices rose on Thursday amid a bullish EIA report and forecasts of colder-than-normal weather for next week. Natural gas prices received support from global supply concerns after Chevron shut down a natural gas field in Israel over security concerns related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. As a result of the supply cut, Egypt said it was reviewing plans to export LNG to Europe.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.14%, FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 0.61%. Uncertainty over the war between Israel and Hamas and rising yields led Asian indices lower this week, while anticipation of a series of central bank meetings next week also made investors largely risk-averse.

With the Bank of Japan conducting another FX intervention yesterday, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy next week with an adjustment to the outlook. The latest data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rose more than expected in October, indicating that inflation is picking up again in the country and could lead to a more hawkish bias from the BoJ at its meeting next Tuesday.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40)  14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index  106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for 2023.10.27:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Japan is setting the stage for a monetary policy review. Falling tech companies are dragging the broad market

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday’s 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company’s cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

Stocks also declined yesterday due to tensions in the Middle East following a report that Israel conducted a limited tank invasion of the Gaza Strip before withdrawing troops. Markets expect an all-out ground attack by Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the war to include Hezbollah.

The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, with households and construction contributing significantly to growth. However, the unfavorable factors facing the economy and the household sector in particular are intensifying, so economists expect growth to slow to 1.5% in the last three months of the year. Also strong is the 4.7% rise in US durable goods orders for September, which is much stronger than expectations of rising by 1.9%. US weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations for a rise to 207,000.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.38% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.81%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations: the deposit rate at 4.00% and the main refinancing rate at 4.50%. Markets had expected the ECB to suspend its rate hike regime on Thursday, given the weakness in the eurozone economy and the recent rise in European bond yields. There is only a 5% chance of an ECB rate hike at the December meeting, but markets are forecasting an ECB rate cut in 2024.

Natural gas prices rose on Thursday amid a bullish EIA report and forecasts of colder-than-normal weather for next week. Natural gas prices received support from global supply concerns after Chevron shut down a natural gas field in Israel over security concerns related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. As a result of the supply cut, Egypt said it was reviewing plans to export LNG to Europe.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.14%, FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 0.61%. Uncertainty over the war between Israel and Hamas and rising yields led Asian indices lower this week, while anticipation of a series of central bank meetings next week also made investors largely risk-averse.

With the Bank of Japan conducting another FX intervention yesterday, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy next week with an adjustment to the outlook. The latest data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rose more than expected in October, indicating that inflation is picking up again in the country and could lead to a more hawkish bias from the BoJ at its meeting next Tuesday.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40)  14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index  106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for 2023.10.27:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: US dollar set for scary rollercoaster ride?

By ForexTime 

  • High-risk events could “trick or treat” investors next week
  • Watch out for central bank decisions, key data & earnings
  • US dollar to be influenced by Fed decision & NFP
  • USDInd trapped within a range on daily chart
  • Key levels of interest at 105.50 and 107.20

An exceptional list of high-risk events could “trick or treat” investors in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) to top-tier data from major economies including the latest US employment report. This will be complemented by a barrage of corporate earnings from the largest economies in the world.

Here are the major economic data releases and events on the week of Halloween:

Monday, October 30th 

  • AUD: Australia retail sales
  • EUR: Eurozone confidence, Germany CPI and GDP

Tuesday, October 31st 

  • Halloween
  • CNH: China PMI’s
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI, GDP
  • JPY: BoJ rate decisions, unemployment, retail sales
  • USD: Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, November 1st 

  • CNH: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • NZD: New Zealand unemployment
  • GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
  • USD: FOMC rate decision, ISM Manufacturing

Thursday, November 2nd 

  • AUD: Australia trade balance
  • EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • GBP: BoE rate decision
  • USD: US factory orders, initial jobless claims
  • NQ100_m: Apple earnings

Friday, November 3rd 

  • CNH: China Caixin services PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone unemployment
  • GBP: BoE’s Jonathan Haskel, BoE’ Huw Pill speech
  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • USD: US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

The scheduled data releases and events may create fresh opportunities across the board. Our focus falls on the USD Index which is set to be influenced by the Fed decision and US employment report.

The USD Index tracks how the dollar is performing against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

It is worth noting that the dollar has appreciated against almost every single G10 currency month-to-date excluding the Swiss Franc.

Dollar bulls found a friend in rising Treasury yields as sticky US inflation supported expectations around rates remaining “higher for longer”.

The USD Index could kick off November with a bang! Here are some things to watch out for:

  1. Federal Reserve rate decision 

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on November 1st, a second consecutive pause.

This is in line with recent dovish comments from Fed officials including Jerome Powell and mixed US economic data. Investors will be paying close attention to Powell’s press conference for any fresh clues on future rate moves.

  • The USDInd could find itself under fresh selling pressure if the Fed strikes a dovish tone and signals that no more hikes are on the cards for the rest of 2023.
  • Should the central bank sound hawkish and leave the doors open for a December move, this may give the USDInd a boost.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 1 in 5 chance of a 25 basis point Fed hike by the end of 2023.

  1. US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Markets expect the US economy to have created 168,000 jobs in October, essentially half of the whopping 336,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.8%.

  • A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may leave the doors open to a December rate hike, pushing the USDInd higher as a result.
  • However, evidence of a cooling US jobs market may support the argument that the Fed is done with hikes this year – dragging the USDInd lower.
  1. Technical forces: breakout?

The USDInd has been trapped within a range since late September with support at 105.50 and resistance at 107.20. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. Although technical forces are in favour of bulls, the fundamentals could throw the USDInd on a scary rollercoaster ride. 

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 107.20 could push prices to levels not seen since November 2022 at 107.80.
  • Should the USDInd slip back below the 105.50 support, this may open the doors towards 104.60.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Extreme weather could burn many investment portfolios by mid-century

By Noël Amenc, EDHEC Business School; Abhishek Gupta, EDHEC Business School; Bertrand Jayles, EDHEC Business School; Darwin Marcelo, EDHEC Business School; Frédéric Blanc-Brude, EDHEC Business School; Leonard Lum, EDHEC Business School; Nishtha Manocha, EDHEC Business School, and Qinyu Goh, EDHEC Business School 

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity today, with potentially severe implications for infrastructure assets. Infrastructure investments such as roads, bridges, ports, airports, and power plants have long lifetimes, typically spanning several decades, and are designed to operate under specific climatic conditions. However, climate change is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and storms, which can damage or disrupt infrastructure assets. These physical risks can lead to direct losses, increased maintenance costs, and lower asset values.

At the same time, climate change induces changes in policy, technology, and consumer preferences that can impact the value of infrastructure assets. This is known as transition risks. For example, new regulations and carbon-pricing schemes could make carbon-intensive infrastructure assets less attractive or even “stranded”, leading to significant financial losses . Additionally, changes in consumer behaviour, such as a shift toward electric vehicles or renewable energy sources, could render certain infrastructure assets obsolete.

50% potential loss of value

If the energy transition has a cost for private investors (transition risks), so does climate change (physical risks). Extreme weather events, which experts predict will increase over the next few years, thus greatly increase the risk of losing value in portfolios.

In an August 2023 study, “It’s getting physical”, EDHEC Infrastructure and Private Assets Research Institute shows that some investors could see the value of their portfolio fall by more than 50% before 2050. The average investor’s portfolio, which generally holds around 10 assets, could drop by a quarter.

The reason is that over the past two decades, institutional investors – such as insurance companies, mutual and pension funds – have been allocating more and more capital to private infrastructure companies, which operate motorway toll roads, airports, power stations, bridges, pipelines, wind and photovoltaic farms, and so on. This represents a total value of 4.1 trillion dollars in the 25 most active markets. These markets include sectors like renewable energy projects, sustainable infrastructure development, clean technology ventures, electric vehicle manufacturing, carbon offset trading, and green real estate investment, among others. These infrastructures are particularly exposed to climate risks.

In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, public spending on physical infrastructure has persistently failed to keep up with economic growth; the United States spends only 2.3% of its GDP on infrastructure, compared to 5% for European countries and 8% for China. Still, private-investor exposure appears to be considerable.

27% loss of value on average

To measure the likely losses of infrastructure investors, we randomly constructed thousands of portfolios. To do this, we included hundreds of assets belonging to infrastructure investments across eight industrial superclasses, including transport (air, rail and road), power generation (gas- and coal-fired, nuclear, etc.), renewable energy (wind, solar, hydroelectric, etc.), network utilities (electricity, gas or water distribution), water resources (oil, gas or water pipelines, gas or liquid storage), etc. For all these assets, it is possible to obtain information on the associated climate risks in EDHEC’s InfraMetrics database.

Overall, we observed a high concentration of risk. Most infrastructure investors generally have few assets in their portfolios (between 5 and 20 on average). Their portfolios are poorly diversified, with a relatively limited number of assets held directly by each investor.

Furthermore, portfolios containing infrastructure assets are often concentrated in a single sector – for example, wind farms. In practical terms, an investor who started building a portfolio in 2018 and plans to hold the assets for another 30 years is exposed to losses solely due to physical risks ranging from -54% to -10%, depending on the number of assets held.

In addition, the loss in value of assets exposed to climate change is -27% on average [by 2050]. In a scenario where temperatures rise faster than expected, they could reach 54% for the most-concentrated portfolios. For instance, the “Hot House World” scenario predicts a rise in temperatures of about 3.2ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Some sectors are also more exposed to climate risks than others. In the transport sector, for example, the loss in net asset value would be four times greater than in the renewable energies sector. Investors in developed countries – in particular the United States, Europe and Australia and others – are the most exposed to losses in value worldwide. Indeed, the more valuable assets are concentrated in a given location, the greater the risk of value destruction.

More inaction, even greater risk

This study shows the scale of the potential losses that investors will have to face. And that’s before the 2050 deadline, as long as climate change predictions remain unchanged. Without action from governments and other stakeholders, climate risks could have a major impact on the overall value of investments, and on the economy as a whole.

However, there is still a glimmer of hope: if the stakeholders manage to organise an effective transition to a low-carbon economy, the losses mentioned in the article could be halved for all investors. All that remains – and this is undoubtedly the most difficult part – is to take action.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Noël Amenc, Professeur de finance, EDHEC Business School; Abhishek Gupta, Associate Director at the EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business School; Bertrand Jayles, Senior Sustainability Data Scientist, EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School; Darwin Marcelo, Project Director at the EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School; Frédéric Blanc-Brude, Directeur de l’EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business School; Leonard Lum, Data analyst, EDHECinfra, EDHEC Business School; Nishtha Manocha, EDHECinfra Senior Research Engineer, EDHEC Business School, and Qinyu Goh, MSc Urban Science, Sustainability Data Scientist at the EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Blowout US GDP growth data but it is what’s coming next that matters…

By George Prior 

The strong third-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth for the US economy should not be the focus for investors, warns the CEO of deVere Group.

The warning from Nigel Green, chief executive of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, comes as GDP, or the sum of all goods and services produced in the US economy, is revealed to be a 4.9% annualized gain for the third quarter.

“This is the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021. It appears that consumers are still happy to spend despite the higher interest rates.

“While its important data that shows the resilience of the world’s largest economy, it should not be the focus of investors,” he says.

“This data shows what has already happened. Investors need to focus on what will happen, if they’re serious about preserving their capital and growing their wealth, because the US economy faces serious headwinds in the months ahead.”

The deVere CEO cites three major reasons that indicate the economic trajectory might not be as rosy in the near future.

“First, the bond market is sending red-flag signals that it believes a recession is looming. For more than a year now, we’ve seen an inverted yield curve, which is when the yield on the two-year Treasury has overtaken that of the 10-year note.

“From the 1960s to today, every time the long-term rate was lower than a short-term rate, a recession followed. It’s happened for the last eight recessions – and it’s never been wrong.”

He continues: “Second, the new US Speaker, Mike Johnson, a close ally of Donald Trump, will be less inclined to make deals than Kevin McCarthy.

“Therefore, he’s more likely to affect a partial government shutdown in mid-November in order to try and seize a political advantage.  It is also more likely that under this scenario, a shutdown would be extended – unlike the previous, more symbolic, ones.

“A government shutdown creates uncertainty about the world’s largest economy, budgetary decisions, and the potential for disruptions in federal services. It erodes investor confidence, both domestically and internationally, meaning investors pull back from the US financial markets, leading to a decrease in asset prices and potential capital flight.

“We expect that should a shutdown occur, it will prompt Moody’s to cut the US credit rating below AAA.  This would be the third rating agency to downgrade the US.”

Nigel Green adds: “And third, the Israel-Hamas war will weigh on sentiment as individuals and businesses become more risk averse about spending and investing, which could lead to a recession.

“Also, conflicts in the Middle East tend to lead to spikes in oil prices which can trigger significant uncertainty in global markets.”

Against this backdrop, investors are being urged not to feel “too fuzzy” about the latest Gross Domestic Product growth data for the US economy.

“Investors shouldn’t be complacent about this strong data. They shouldn’t focus on the backward-looking; they should be thinking about what’s next, particularly the headwinds on the horizon.

“We would urge them to review their portfolios to mitigate risks and seize the opportunities that will come from a shifting investment environment,” concludes Nigel Green.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Euro shaky ahead of ECB meeting

By ForexTime 

  • ECB expected to pause on rate hikes
  • Inflationary pressures have eased in Europe
  • However, economic outlook paints gloomy picture
  • Hawkish messaging may leave doors open to December hike
  • EURUSD back within range, potential breakout on horizon.

As far as markets are concerned, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave rates unchanged in October for the first time in over a year, amid signs of cooling inflation. Over the past few months, price pressures have eased in Europe, with the headline rate falling to 4.3% in September, which was the lowest since October 2021.

ECB officials signalled at their previous September meeting that rates were high enough to bring inflation back towards the 2% target. However, concerns are rising about the worsening economic outlook, along with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  Indeed, the string of recent disappointing data paints a gloomy picture with recession fears rife as high rates impact households and businesses.

Investors will pay close attention to any fresh clues the ECB has to offer on monetary policy for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Should the ECB communicate that rates will remain higher for longer, this could leave the door open for one final hike in December. As of writing, traders are pricing in only around a 10% probability of an ECB rate hike by December with the odds of a rate cut by April roughly 50%.

Looking at the technical picture, EURUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts.

Prices are back within a wide range with support at 1.0450 and resistance at 1.0630. The euro could find itself under fresh pressure if the ECB strikes a cautious tone and hints that no more hikes are expected down the road. This may drag the EURUSD back towards the 1.0450 support level as a result.

Should the central bank strike a hawkish note, this could push EURUSD back towards 1.0630 and beyond as bets increase on a December rate move.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

US tightening sanctions on Iran oil could impact your investments

By George Prior 

Should the US tighten sanctions on Iran’s crude oil exports in response to the country backing Hamas, it will impact investment portfolios around the world, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The analysis from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes ahead of a widely expected ground offensive by Israel into Gaza, which could shift the mood music for the West’s response to Iran.

He says: “These sanctions, while driven by geopolitical concerns, are likely to significantly impact portfolios for individual and institutional investors globally. As ever, with increased volatility, there will be fresh opportunities and fresh risks.

“Portfolios that include energy sector assets can be directly affected by the sanctions on Iran’s crude oil. Iran is a major oil producer, and restrictions on its exports can result in a reduction in global oil supply, which, in turn, could boost the profitability of energy companies.

“While some energy stocks may benefit from rising oil prices, others may face challenges due to increased production costs.

“Dividend stocks in the energy sector could see price increases, which might be positive for income-focused investors. However, dividend sustainability may be threatened if higher oil prices lead to increased expenses for energy companies.”

The rise in oil prices due to sanctions can lead to broader economic consequences, particularly in the form of inflation.

“Central banks, which have been battling to bring down multi-decade high inflation peaks over the last two years, may respond to rising inflation by considering increasing interest rates again.

“Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for businesses, impacting their expansion plans and investments. This, in turn, affects stock prices and overall portfolio performance.”

Nigel Green continues: “Companies across various industries would also face increased production costs due to higher oil prices. These added expenses can pressure businesses to pass the costs onto consumers, potentially impacting their profitability and share prices.

“Developing economies are particularly vulnerable to oil price spikes. Many of these countries rely heavily on imported oil, and surging prices can strain their trade balances and currencies. As such, investors with heavy exposure to these markets need to be extra cautious as risks are heightened.

“In addition, changes in oil prices influence currency exchange rates. Investors in currency markets may need to navigate these shifts, which can impact the value of their investments.”

Sanctions on Iranian oil can introduce geopolitical risks to your investment portfolio. To mitigate these risks, you need to ensure proper diversification of your portfolio across different asset classes, industries, and geographical regions to spread risk and reduce the impact of sanctions on specific sectors.

Also, you should develop a risk management strategy that includes setting stop-loss orders, adjusting your asset allocation, and staying informed about geopolitical events that can impact your investments.

Working with financial advisors who can provide insights and recommendations tailored to your specific investment goals and risk tolerance is likely to prove highly beneficial.

“The US tightening sanctions on Iranian oil could have a negative impact on individual and institutional investment portfolios by disrupting the energy sector, contributing to inflationary pressures, and intensifying geopolitical risks. You need to be aware of the risks – but also the opportunities,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Inflationary pressures are rising sharply in Australia. Corporate earnings keep indices from falling

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.54%, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.73%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.93% yesterday. Stocks rose moderately on Tuesday on the back of better-than-expected corporate earnings results. A negative factor for stocks was Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected US manufacturing activity data, which was hawkish for Fed policy. The S&P US manufacturing PMI for October unexpectedly rose to a 6-month high of 50.0, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to 49.5.

General Electric (GE) closed higher by more than 6% after reporting third-quarter adjusted EPS of 82 cents, well above the consensus of 56 cents, and raising its 2023 adjusted EPS guidance. Verizon Communications (VZ) shares are up more than 9%, leading gains in the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones Industrials (US30), after the company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.22, which was better than the consensus estimate of $1.18. Coca-Cola Co (KO) closed higher by more than 3% after reporting 11% organic revenue growth in the third quarter, well above the consensus of 6.91%. Shares of Google Alphabet (GOOG) Inc. are down more than 5% after weaker-than-expected revenue growth from its cloud computing operations. Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal first-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street forecasts, as the tech giant’s investments in artificial intelligence fueled growth in its Azure cloud business. The stock price rose more than 4% after the report was published.

In the Middle East, French President Macron met with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday before calling for an international coalition to fight Hamas and warning other Iranian-backed militant groups against opening new fronts in the war between Israel and Hamas.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.63% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.20%.

The Eurozone manufacturing PMI for October unexpectedly fell by 0.4 to 43.0, weaker than expectations of a rise to 43.7. The German GfK consumer confidence index for November fell by 1.4 to a 7-month low of 28.1, weaker than expectations of 27.0. In her speech yesterday, ECB President Lagarde told the Presidents of the European Commission, European Council, and Eurogroup that stagnation and downside risks await the Eurozone economy in the next few quarters, although inflation risks have become more balanced.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.20%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 1.05%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Tuesday positive 0.19%. Chinese stocks continued their recovery rally on Wednesday after the government announced plans for a massive bond issue. Beijing announced plans to issue 1 trillion yuan ($1=7.3088 yuan) worth of government bonds to support the economy. Nevertheless, Chinese stocks remain near 2023 lows, having suffered significant losses on fears of slowing economic growth and a collapse in the real estate market. Despite Wednesday’s optimism, the factors that drove domestic markets lower are still in place.

Japan’s business activity index for the manufacturing sector for October was unchanged at 48.5. The services PMI for October fell by 2.7 to 51.1, the lowest reading in 10 months.

In Australia, the consumer price index unexpectedly rose. In annual terms, the inflation rate rose from 5.2% to 5.6%. In quarterly terms, the index rose from 0.8% to 1.2%. Such data gives grounds for further interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,247.68 +30.64 (+0.73%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,141.38 +204.97 (+0.62%)

DAX (DE40)  14,879.94  +79.22 (+0.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,389.70 +14.87 +(0.20%)

USD Index  106.26 +0.73 (+0.69%)

News feed for 2023.10.25:
  • – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Press Conference at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 23:35 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.