Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 90

Wealthy investors convinced by alternative investments

By George Prior

High-net-worth investors “remain absolutely convinced” by alternative investments, including venture capital, cryptocurrencies, structured products, and hedge funds – despite a wider slowdown of inflows into the sector.

The assessment from Nigel Green, the chief executive and founder of deVere Group, comes as media reports cite research that suggests that inflows have dropped by hundreds of billions of dollars over the last year as institutional investors reassessed their exposure to ‘alts.’

He says: “While institutional investor inflows into alternative investments might have slowed, our experience worldwide shows that the opposite is true with individual investors.

“Interest from our high-net-worth individuals around the world is growing in ‘alts’; they remain absolutely convinced that less familiar, return-enhancing asset classes, which include venture capital, structured products, high dividend stocks, crypto, hedge funds and managed futures, and real estate, should be a part of their investment mix.”

Alternative investments are distinct from traditional asset classes like stocks, bonds, and cash, encompassing a diverse array of investment options that offer unique risk and return profiles.

While they require careful due diligence, their inclusion in a well-structured portfolio can offer opportunities for enhanced returns and exposure to non-traditional investment strategies.

Alts are characterised by their potential to deliver higher yields and increased capital appreciation, though they can also come with greater complexity and illiquidity.

“Savvy investors will be considering this temporary period of falling inflows or lower popularity as a buying opportunity.  They will be seeing the bigger picture,” affirms Nigel Green.

“These investors understand that alternative investments tend to have low correlations with traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds, meaning that their performance may not be closely tied to the movements of traditional markets. Diversification can help reduce overall portfolio volatility and mitigate the impact of market downturns. This can improve the overall risk-adjusted returns of a portfolio.”

He continues: “While alternative investments come with higher risks, they also offer the potential for higher returns compared to traditional investments, especially in periods of economic growth or when specific strategies are successful.

“They also provide flexibility in terms of investment strategies. Hedge funds, for instance, can employ a range of strategies to potentially profit from market inefficiencies.

“Potential for Alpha: Some alternative strategies aim to generate alpha, which is the excess return earned above the market’s benchmark. Skilled managers in areas like hedge funds or private equity may be able to capitalize on their expertise to outperform the broader market.”

For these important, strategic reasons, the deVere CEO predicts that “institutional investors will be back into alts in the near future”, adding, “the current slowdown of inflows by institutions is a blip.”

Investors considering alternative investments should conduct thorough due diligence, assess their risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor who understands the opportunities as well as complexities of these investments.

“Remaining steadfast in their strategy for wealth building success, ‘diversify and thrive’ would be high-net-worth individuals’ attitude towards alternative investments,” concludes Nigel Green.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

China is trying to stimulate economic growth. The probability of another rate hike by the Fed rose to 67%

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.62%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.63%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.84% on Monday. Stocks rose on Monday while bond yields declined thanks to support provided by comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Powell on Friday that the Fed is prepared to continue raising interest rates if needed but “will proceed cautiously” on whether to raise rates again, opening the door for a potential pause in Fed operations. Currently, there is a 23% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting and a 67% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting.

Monday’s US economic news was positive for stocks after the August reading of the Dallas Fed’s measure of overall business activity in the manufacturing sector rose by 2.8 to a 5-month high of minus 17.2, which was stronger than expectations of minus 19.0.

Shares of 3M Co. rose more than 5% after it agreed to pay $5.5 billion to settle lawsuits related to military earplugs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 1.30%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.32% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.93%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading due to the bank holiday.

Eurozone money supply unexpectedly declined by 0.4% y/y in July, weaker than expected and the sharpest rate of contraction in 13 years. ECB Governing Council spokesperson Holzmann said the following: “If there are no major surprises, I see grounds for continuing to raise rates without a pause.” The next ECB meeting will be held on September 14.

China’s actions over the weekend to stimulate its markets have sparked optimism about a possible resumption of economic growth, which is having a positive impact on energy demand and crude oil prices. In addition, gains in US stock markets on Monday boosted confidence in the economic outlook, supporting energy demand. But investors are refraining from taking large oil positions ahead of the release of key economic indicators from the US and China later this week.

Asian markets were also predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 1.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up by 0.97% on Monday’s close, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.63% yesterday.

Asian equities were supported after China took a number of measures to stimulate its markets, including cutting the tax levied on share trading. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could potentially lower reserve requirement ratios sooner than expected, providing local markets with more liquidity. Chinese officials also talked about potential financial support for the economy.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,433.31 +27.60 (+0.63%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,559.98 +213.08 (+0.62%)

DAX (DE40)  15,792.61 +160.79 (+1.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,338.58 0 (0%)

USD Index  104.02 -0.06 (-0.05%)

Important events for today:
  • – German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Gov-Designate Bullock Speaks at 10:40 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Fed chief hints at another rate hike. Oil may come under pressure in the coming weeks

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.73% (-0.53% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67% (+0.58% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.94% (+1.82% for the week) on Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that policymakers are prepared to raise interest rates further if necessary but also signaled that they may keep rates at current levels in September if economic data support it.

Key talking points from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the conclusion of a conference in Jackson Hole:

  • We are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected;
  • Evidence of sustained above-trend growth could jeopardize further progress in inflation and warrant further monetary tightening;
  • Evidence that labor market tightness is no longer easing could also warrant a monetary policy response.

According to analysts, despite the hawkish tones in Jerome Powell’s speech, the Fed is happy with current trends, and if they continue, they won’t change anything. But if the US Central Bank sees that these economic trends are fading or suddenly beginning to change, it will increase the likelihood of another rate hike because the Fed will be very sensitive to the data, and this sensitivity will be one-sided – in the direction of tightening.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly rising on Friday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.07% (week’s total +0.37%), French CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.38% (week’s total +0.90%), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.15% (week’s total +0.76%), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.07% (week’s total +1.05%). Germany’s August business climate fell by 1.7 to a 10-month low of 85.7, below expectations of 86.8. ECB President Lagarde said at a symposium in Jackson Hole that the ECB “will set interest rates at a fairly restrictive level for as long as necessary to bring inflation back to the medium-term target of 2% in a timely manner.” For his part, Nagel of the ECB’s Governing Council said that with inflation still standing around 5%, “it is too early to think about a pause” in interest rate hikes. European inflation data will be released this week. Core inflation in Germany, as well as across the Eurozone, is expected to fall slightly, raising the possibility that the ECB may hit the pause button in September.

Oil was supported on Friday after Marathon Petroleum shut down its Garyville refinery in Louisiana, the third-largest refinery in the United States with a refining capacity of 596,000 BPD, due to a fire. In addition, Friday’s weekly report from Baker Hughes was upbeat for oil as the report showed that active oil rigs in the US fell to their lowest level in a year and a half. But analysts believe that against the backdrop of September, which is considered a seasonally weak month, there is a high probability of oil price declines in the coming weeks. Moreover, open interest is sharply declining, suggesting that oil bulls are taking profits after the rally.

Asian markets were also mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.23% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 0.89%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative by 0.46%.

In Australia, seasonally adjusted retail sales for July rose by 0.5% month-over-month versus an expected 0.3%. Despite the increase, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said he expects growth in the Australian economy to weaken significantly due to interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and a slowdown in China.

A meeting between Bank of Canada Governor Kazuo Ueda and Japan’s Prime Minister last week sparked new rumors of monetary policy normalization. Traders are also wary of government intervention against the yen after it hit a nine-month low last week. The weak yen, which has helped Japanese stocks outperform global peers this year, is now pressuring the market, raising expectations that the Bank of Japan will be forced to move toward monetary tightening.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,405.71 +29.40 (+0.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,346.90 +247.48 (+0.73%)

DAX (DE40)  15,631.82 +10.33 (+0.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,338.58 +4.95 (+0.07%)

USD Index  104.19 +0.21 (+0.20%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Lithuania should seize the foreign direct investment advantage

By George Prior

Lithuania needs to harness “the enormous power” of international investment to boost its economic opportunities in an increasingly globalised world, says serial global investor Nigel Green.

The European Union-based international entrepreneur, investor, and government advisor stresses that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a lifeline for economic growth and development.

He says: “Countries worldwide compete to attract foreign direct investment due to its ability to bring capital, technology, expertise, market access and large-scale job and wealth-building opportunities to a nation.

“All over the world, history proves that foreign direct investment ignites long-term, sustainable economic growth.”

As a long-term investor in and advocator of Lithuania, Nigel Green says that Lithuania should now “harness the power of foreign direct investment (FDI) and allow it to become a cornerstone of national economic development.”

He says: “I’m a huge believer in the potential of Lithuania and I think the time is right for Lithuania to seize the FDI advantage.

“By properly pushing the FDI programme, there will be a surge of capital into Lithuania, catalysing economic activity and driving growth.

“This influx of funds can be channelled into critical sectors such as infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing, creating jobs and improving the standard of living for the Lithuanian people.”

Nigel Green continues: “As I have seen around the world, foreign investors typically introduce different technologies, best practices, and management expertise.

“This transfer of knowledge enhances local innovation capacity and accelerates Lithuania’s progress toward becoming a knowledge-based, top-tier economy.”

Foreign direct investment would also help diversify Lithuania’s industrial landscape, reducing overreliance on specific sectors and fostering resilience against economic fluctuations.

“The establishment of new industries and sectors enhances economic stability and paves the way for a more balanced economy,” he notes.

“In addition, by going big on foreign direct investment, Lithuania gains more access to international markets through the establishment of export-oriented industries. These industries create products for global consumption, generating foreign exchange earnings and contributing to the country’s export revenue.”

Infrastructure development, from transportation networks to energy systems, would also receive a boost. Improved infrastructure not only attracts investors but also contributes to the overall development of the country for the long-term.

Additionally, as foreign investors seek local talent, Lithuania’s workforce is then exposed to global business practices, higher salaries, and skill enhancement, all of which creates a more competitive labour force.

Nigel Green concludes: “As Lithuania continues to assert itself on the global stage, the strategic use of foreign direct investment should take on greater significance.

“The transformative impact of a comprehensive FDI agenda on Lithuania’s economy, from innovation to job creation, would be undeniable.

“With the right approach, Lithuania can position itself as a beacon of opportunity, attracting investments from around the world that empower its people, enhance its economic resilience, and pave the way for a brighter and prosperous future.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

The US stock market is under a sell-off on hawkish comments from FOMC representatives. Japan is seeing a decline in inflation

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.08%, while the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 1.36%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative at 1.87%. Stocks were under a sell-off on Thursday, sending the Dow Jones Industrials Index to a 6-week low. The sell-off in technology stocks had a negative impact on the overall market. In addition, stronger-than-expected US economic news and hawkish comments from the Fed pushed bond yields higher and triggered the liquidation of long positions in equities ahead of Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell.

On Thursday, the Fed’s hawkish comments were bullish for the dollar index and bearish for stock indices. FRB Boston President Collins said it will take time for inflation to reach the Fed’s 2% target, and “we may need to raise rates further, and we may hold rates at restrictive levels for some time.” Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said a pickup in economic activity this summer could delay the Fed’s plans to end its campaign to raise interest rates, “This acceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stop the disinflation we’re seeing, and instead delay the Fed’s plans to change policy.” Philadelphia Fed President Harker believes policymakers have likely undertaken sufficient tightening and that the Fed has “probably done enough” and believes interest rates will be steady through the year’s end.

Today, markets await Fed Chairman Powell’s comments at the annual symposium of the world’s central banks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. With inflation down from 40-year highs but still well above the Fed’s 2% target, Powell’s speech will be scrutinized for when the Fed might end its rate hike campaign. ECB President Lagarde will also speak at the event.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.68%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.44% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive at 0.18%.

ECB Governing Council representative Centeno said yesterday that the ECB “should be cautious in deciding on additional rate hikes, as downside risks to the economy that were identified in June have materialized.”

The GkK report showed that UK consumer confidence rebounded in August as inflation showed signs of cooling and strong wage growth supported household finances. The figures starkly contrast the sharp fall in retail sales in July, with industry research suggesting the decline is likely to continue.

Crude oil and gasoline prices closed modestly higher on Thursday. Stronger-than-expected economic news from the US on Thursday signaled a strengthening economy favorable for energy demand and crude oil prices. Signs of tight supply also supported oil after the EIA’s weekly crude inventories data fell more than expected to a 7-month low on Wednesday. But a stronger dollar on Thursday limited gains in energy prices.

Natural gas prices rose moderately on Thursday after weekly natural gas inventories released by the EIA increased by 18 Bcf (billion cubic feet), below expectations of 31 Bcf. The rise in natural gas prices was capped by a forecast that cooler temperatures will arrive in the lower 48 US states next week, reducing demand for natural gas from power suppliers to run air conditioners.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.87% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday up 2.05%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive at 0.47%.

Core inflation in Japan’s capital slowed in August for the second consecutive month (3.0%→2.8%) but remained well above the Сentral Bank’s 2% target. Analysts expect inflation to continue slowing in the coming months, reflecting the recent decline in commodity prices and the base effect of last year’s price surge.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,376.31 −59.70 (−1.35%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,099.42 −373.56 (−1.08%)

DAX (DE40)  15,621.49 −106.92 (−0.68%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,333.63 +13.10 (+0.18%)

USD Index  104.00 +0.58 (+0.56%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Jackson Hole Symposium at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:05 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

China seeks rapid BRICS expansion. The US central bank’s economic symposium will begin today

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index increased by 0.54%, while the S&P500 (US500) index added 1.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.59% yesterday. Stocks were boosted by weaker-than-expected economic news from the US and Europe on business activity, reinforcing speculation that the Fed and ECB may hold off on raising interest rates.

Shares of major technology companies rose ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results. On Wednesday, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and an encouraging outlook as the race to adopt artificial intelligence continues to drive demand for its chips. The stock price rose more than 9% in after-hours trading.

The US Central Bank’s annual symposium will begin today in Jackson Hole in the United States. Once a year, FOMC officials gather for a summer symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to exchange views on monetary policy and economic trends. While the event is mainly academic in nature, it has been used by Fed leaders over the years to signal future monetary policy plans. Investors will focus on whether the Fed chief believes further policy tightening will be needed to reduce inflation or whether sufficient progress has been made to keep rates unchanged.

According to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate released on Wednesday, retail sales rose just 0.4% last month. With goods consumption and the broader economy showing some signs of slowing, policymakers may have an opportunity to retake a wait-and-see stance and keep the overnight rate at 5% at their next meeting on September 6.

Equity markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15%, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.08% on Wednesday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.05%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.68%. Eurozone business activity data disappointed investors. Despite an uptick in the manufacturing sector (42.7→43.7), the service sector fell back into contractionary territory (50.9→48.3). The manufacturing sector has been contracting, with new orders and backlogs declining. While goods sector inflation is falling due to lower costs and weak demand, services sector inflation is still high due to higher labor costs despite weaker demand. The hawks on the ECB board will be inclined to push for another rate hike as wage pressures push up services inflation.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.48% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 1.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.31% on Wednesday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.38% on the day.

BRICS leaders agreed at a summit to expand membership. China is keen on expanding BRICS amid growing competition with the US, but the group’s other major power, India, does not share this interest. South African officials say several countries have submitted formal applications to join BRICS, which accounts for 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of the global economy. They include Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Argentina, and Iran. On his second overseas trip this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the bloc’s expansion would “pool our strength and our wisdom to make global governance more just and equitable.” The summit underscored differences with the West over the war in Ukraine and the support Russia is receiving from its BRICS partners at a time of global isolation. South Africa, China, and India did not condemn Russia’s invasion, while Brazil refused to join Western countries in sending weapons to Ukraine or imposing sanctions on Moscow.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,436.01 +48.46 (+1.10%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,472.98 +184.15 (+0.54%)

DAX (DE40)  15,728.41 +22.79 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,320.53 +49.77 (+0.68%)

USD Index  103.59 +0.29 (+0.28%)

Important events for today:
  • – Jackson Hole Symposium at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Canada is on the verge of a housing bubble. US indices are under renewed pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index decreased by 0.51%, while the S&P500 (US500) index lost 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.06% yesterday. Yesterday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks after July’s existing home sales fell more than expected to a 6-month low. Still, the August manufacturing report from the FRB Richmond unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high. The 3-day symposium of the US central bank in Jackson Hole starts as early as tomorrow, where the main focus of investors is directed towards the speeches of US Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate hike at the September 20th FOMC meeting at 16% and a 25bp hike at the First of November FOMC meeting at 49%.

According to economists, Canada is likely sitting on the biggest housing bubble of all time. Canadians’ level of debt relative to their income puts many in a precarious position if mortgage rates continue to rise, which is likely. The worst thing for a housing bubble is when a credit bubble forms underneath it, as it did in the United States in 2008.

Equity markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.66%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) gained 0.59% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.59%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.18%. French retail sales in July fell by 2.1% y/y, marking the fourteenth consecutive decline in sales. Today, the Eurozone is expected to publish data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Analysts expect negative data, which will put additional pressure on the ECB.

Oil prices are falling for the second day in a row, with the price of oil in the US stopping below the critical support of $80 per barrel amid concerns about the economic slowdown in China and the possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The excitement over Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting oil production has receded into the background but is helping the price not to fall too deeply.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.92% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.68%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.95% on Tuesday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive 0.09%. Concerns about China persisted after the People’s Bank disappointed markets with a smaller-than-expected cut in interest rates this week. Additional stimulus measures promised by the government earlier were not announced, which also had a negative impact on Chinese equities.

In New Zealand, total retail sales in June declined by 1% from March. This is the third consecutive quarterly decline, following a 1.6% decline in March and 1.1% in December. Seasonally adjusted retail sales totaled 25 bln. The decline in retail sales indicates that consumers are spending less money in stores and saving more. This usually occurs in recessionary and pre-recessionary scenarios.

In Japan, the business activity level in the manufacturing sector rose from 49.6 to 49.7. The service sector increased from 53.8 to 54.3. Core inflation, which the Bank of Japan monitors, rewrote the highs and amounted to a modest by global standards, but still a record for Japan at 3.3%. According to analysts, the Bank of Japan still controls the situation. Still, when you print yen with one hand and keep the rates around zero, and with the other hand, you try to prevent devaluation – sooner or later, significant problems may arise.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,387.55 −12.22 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,288.83 −174.86 (−0.51%)

DAX (DE40)  15,705.62 +102.34 (+0.66%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,270.76 +12.94 (+0.18%)

USD Index  103.59 +0.29 (+0.28%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Social media algorithms warp how people learn from each other, research shows

By William Brady, Northwestern University 

People’s daily interactions with online algorithms affect how they learn from others, with negative consequences including social misperceptions, conflict and the spread of misinformation, my colleagues and I have found.

People are increasingly interacting with others in social media environments where algorithms control the flow of social information they see. Algorithms determine in part which messages, which people and which ideas social media users see.

On social media platforms, algorithms are mainly designed to amplify information that sustains engagement, meaning they keep people clicking on content and coming back to the platforms. I’m a social psychologist, and my colleagues and I have found evidence suggesting that a side effect of this design is that algorithms amplify information people are strongly biased to learn from. We call this information “PRIME,” for prestigious, in-group, moral and emotional information.

In our evolutionary past, biases to learn from PRIME information were very advantageous: Learning from prestigious individuals is efficient because these people are successful and their behavior can be copied. Paying attention to people who violate moral norms is important because sanctioning them helps the community maintain cooperation.

But what happens when PRIME information becomes amplified by algorithms and some people exploit algorithm amplification to promote themselves? Prestige becomes a poor signal of success because people can fake prestige on social media. Newsfeeds become oversaturated with negative and moral information so that there is conflict rather than cooperation.

The interaction of human psychology and algorithm amplification leads to dysfunction because social learning supports cooperation and problem-solving, but social media algorithms are designed to increase engagement. We call this mismatch functional misalignment.

Why it matters

One of the key outcomes of functional misalignment in algorithm-mediated social learning is that people start to form incorrect perceptions of their social world. For example, recent research suggests that when algorithms selectively amplify more extreme political views, people begin to think that their political in-group and out-group are more sharply divided than they really are. Such “false polarization” might be an important source of greater political conflict.

Social media algorithms amplify extreme political views.

Functional misalignment can also lead to greater spread of misinformation. A recent study suggests that people who are spreading political misinformation leverage moral and emotional information – for example, posts that provoke moral outrage – in order to get people to share it more. When algorithms amplify moral and emotional information, misinformation gets included in the amplification.

What other research is being done

In general, research on this topic is in its infancy, but there are new studies emerging that examine key components of algorithm-mediated social learning. Some studies have demonstrated that social media algorithms clearly amplify PRIME information.

Whether this amplification leads to offline polarization is hotly contested at the moment. A recent experiment found evidence that Meta’s newsfeed increases polarization, but another experiment that involved a collaboration with Meta found no evidence of polarization increasing due to exposure to their algorithmic Facebook newsfeed.

More research is needed to fully understand the outcomes that emerge when humans and algorithms interact in feedback loops of social learning. Social media companies have most of the needed data, and I believe that they should give academic researchers access to it while also balancing ethical concerns such as privacy.

What’s next

A key question is what can be done to make algorithms foster accurate human social learning rather than exploit social learning biases. My research team is working on new algorithm designs that increase engagement while also penalizing PRIME information. We argue that this might maintain user activity that social media platforms seek, but also make people’s social perceptions more accurate.

About the Author:

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.The Conversation

William Brady, Assistant Professor of Management and Organizations, Northwestern University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

A carbon tax on investment income could be more fair and make it less profitable to pollute – a new analysis shows why

By Jared Starr, UMass Amherst 

About 10 years ago, a very thick book written by a French economist became a surprising bestseller. It was called “Capital in the 21st Century.” In it, Thomas Piketty traces the history of income and wealth inequality over the past couple of hundred years.

The book’s insights struck a chord with people who felt a growing sense of economic inequality but didn’t have the data to back it up. I was one of them. It made me wonder, how much carbon pollution is being generated to create wealth for a small group of extremely rich households? Two kids, 10 years and a Ph.D. later, I finally have some answers.

In a new study, colleagues and I investigated U.S. households’ personal responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019. We previously studied emissions tied to consumption – the stuff people buy. This time, we looked at emissions used in generating people’s incomes, including investment income.

If you’ve ever thought about how oil company CEOs and shareholders get rich at the expense of the climate, then you’ve been thinking in an “income-responsibility” way.

While it may seem intuitive that those getting rich from fossil fuels bear responsibility for the emissions, very little research has been done to quantify this. Recent efforts have started to look at emissions related to household wages in France, global consumption and investments of different income groups and billionaires’ investments. But no one has analyzed households across a whole country based on the emissions used to generate their full range of income, including wages, investments and retirement income, until now.

We linked a global data set of financial transactions and emissions to microdata from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly labor force survey, which includes respondents’ job, demographics and income from 35 categories, including wages and investments. People’s wages we connected to the emission intensity of the industries that employ them, and we based the emissions intensity of investment income on a portfolio that mirrors the overall economy.

The results of our analysis were eye-opening, and they could have profound implications for producing more effective and fair climate policies in the future.

A view from the top 1%

Both our consumption- and income-based approaches reveal that the highest-earning households are responsible for much more than an equitable share of carbon emissions. What’s more surprising is how different the level of responsibility is depending on whether you look at consumption or income.

In the income-based approach, the share of national emissions coming from the top 1% of households is 15% to 17% of national emissions. That’s about 2.5 times higher than their consumer-related emissions, which is about 6%.

In the bottom 50% of households, however, the trend is the exact opposite: Their share of consumption-based national emissions is 31%, about two times larger than their income-based emissions of 14%.

Why is that?

A couple things are going on here. First, the lowest earning 50% of U.S. households spend all that they earn, and often more via social assistance or debt. The top income groups, on the other hand, are able to save and reinvest more of their income.

Second, while high-income households have very high overall spending and emissions, the carbon intensity – tons of carbon dioxide emitted per dollar – of their purchases is actually lower than that of low-income households. This is because low-income households spend a large share of their income on carbon-intensive basic necessities, like home heating and transportation. High-income households spend more of their income on less-carbon-intensive services, like financial services or higher education.

Implications for a carbon tax

Our detailed comparison could help change how governments think about carbon taxes.

Typically, a carbon tax is applied to fossil fuels when they enter the economy. Coal, oil and gas producers then pass this tax on to consumers. More than two dozen countries have a carbon tax, and U.S. policymakers have proposed adding one in recent years. The idea is that raising the price of these products by taxing them will get consumers to shift to cheaper and presumably less carbon-intensive alternatives.

But our studies show that this kind of tax would disproportionately fall on poorer Americans. Even if a universal dividend check was adopted, consumer-facing carbon taxes have no impact on saved income. Generating that income likely contributed to greenhouse gas emissions, but as long as the money is used to buy stocks rather than consumables, it is excluded from carbon taxes. So, this kind of carbon tax disproportionately affects people whose income goes primarily toward consumption.

A profit-focused carbon tax

What if, instead of focusing on consumption, carbon taxes addressed greenhouse gases as an outcome of profit generation?

The vast majority of American corporations operate under the principle of “shareholder primacy,” where they see a fiduciary duty to maximize profit for their investors. Products – and the greenhouse gases used to make them – are not created for the benefit of the consumer, but because the sale of those products will benefit the shareholders.

If carbon taxes were focused on shareholder income linked to greenhouse gas emissions rather than consumption, they could target those receiving the most economic benefits resulting from these emissions.

The impact

A couple of interesting things might result, particularly if the tax was set based on the carbon intensity of the company.

Corporate executives and boards would have incentive to reduce emissions to lower taxes for shareholders. Shareholders would have incentive, out of self-interest, to pressure companies to do so.

Investors would also have incentive to shift their portfolios to less-polluting companies to avoid the tax. Pension and private wealth fund managers would have incentive to divest from carbon-polluting investments out of a fiduciary duty to their clients. To keep the tax focused on large shareholders, I could see retirement accounts being excluded from the tax, or a minimum asset threshold before the tax applies.

Jared Starr explains the new study’s findings and the implications.

Revenue generated from the carbon tax could help fund adaptation and the transition to clean energy.

Instead of putting the responsibility for cutting emissions on consumers, maybe policies should more directly tie that responsibility to corporate executives, board members and investors who have the most knowledge and power over their industries. Based on our analysis of the consumption and income benefits produced by greenhouse gas emissions, I believe a shareholder-based carbon tax is worth exploring.The Conversation

About the Author:

Jared Starr, Sustainability Scientist, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Warren Buffett is investing in real estate. The New Zealand dollar has fallen for ten days in a row

By JustMarkets

As of Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.19%, while the S&P500 Index (US500) added 0.69%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.56% yesterday. But analysts still believe that the dollar is poised for further gains, especially as government bond yields rose following positive US economic data. Markets expect the Fed to have to keep rates “higher for longer” in response to robust US data.

Technology stocks rose thanks to a more than 6% rise in NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) ahead of the chipmaker’s quarterly results due on Wednesday. Nvidia is riding a wave of optimism about artificial intelligence. Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) rose more than 6% as investors bought into the electric car maker’s recent stock slump amid a new positive outlook from Wall Street for TSLA. Baird listed Tesla as a “best idea,” noting several favorable factors, including the launch of Cybertruck, wider adoption of self-driving software, and continued growth in the energy business, that could overshadow concerns about margin erosion from recent price declines.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway fund invested in housing, putting $814 million into the shares of 3 homebuilders: Lennar, NVR, and DR Horton. A small bet in the context of Berkshire’s roughly $350 billion equity portfolio, but it speaks to Buffett’s optimism about the housing market in the US, despite its unaffordability today when mortgage rates are near multi-year highs.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.47% on Monday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.05%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.06%. In its monthly report, Germany’s Bundesbank said, “The German economy remains in a phase of weakness. Output will likely remain largely unchanged in the third quarter of 2023.” In Germany, the PPI (which displays the inflation rate between factories and plants and is a leading indicator of consumer inflation) fell by 6.0% annually, the sharpest drop in 13 years. The main reason for the year-over-year decline in producer prices was lower energy prices, as well as lower prices for intermediate goods.

Crude oil and gasoline prices stopped rising on Monday and closed moderately lower. Economic malaise in China, the world’s second-largest crude oil consumer, threatens to curb its energy demand and has a bearish effect on prices. On the other hand, oil’s fall is limited by a shortage of global crude oil inventories.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.37% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.36%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.82% on Monday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day negative by 0.46%.

On Monday, the Nikkei stock index rally reduced demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven. In addition, the yen is under pressure as data from Bloomberg shows that the Bank of Japan is buying Japanese bonds at a record pace this year as it tries to keep long-term bond yields low as part of its yield curve control program. An update from JP Morgan shows analysts’ interest in the 150 yen per dollar mark as a level that could trigger currency intervention.

The New Zealand dollar is on the verge of the longest losing streak in its history. On Monday, the currency fell for the 10th consecutive day. Such a drop has yet to occur seen since March 2020. If the NZD declines further today, it will be the longest drop in the currency’s history.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,399.77 +30.06 (+0.69%)

Dow Jones (US30) 15,603.28 +29.02 (+0.19%)

DAX (DE40)  15,603.28 +29.02 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,257.82 −4.61 (−0.063%)

USD Index  103.35 −0.03 (−0.03%)

Important events for today:
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.