Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 5

The Swiss franc is trading near a 15-year high against the dollar. The Chinese yuan strengthened to 6.9 per dollar

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, trading on the US stock market closed higher. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.47%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed higher by 0.90%. The market was primarily supported by shares of large technology companies and AI-related issuers, which offset investor caution ahead of the publication of key US macroeconomic data. The growth leaders were Nvidia (+2.5%), Broadcom (+3.4%), and Oracle (+9.6%) following analyst upgrades amid steady demand for AI infrastructure. At the same time, software developers lagged, reflecting concerns regarding generative AI’s pressure on margins and the outlook for the cloud business. Market focus is shifting to the delayed employment report and upcoming US inflation data.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to 1.356 per USD, approaching a 16-month high, amid strong labor market data and rising commodity prices. In January, unemployment fell to 6.5%, the lowest since September 2024, while growth in full-time employment and wages weakened expectations for an early policy easing by the Bank of Canada and supported foreign capital inflows. The CAD received additional support from the general weakening of the US dollar following weak US labor data and rising oil prices, which improved Canada’s terms of trade.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 17.20 per dollar, hitting a new high since mid-2024 amid USD weakening and the market’s reaction to January inflation data. Banxico’s decision to maintain the rate at 7% and its emphasis on inflationary risks reduced expectations of rapid policy easing, supporting the peso’s real yield. Inflation in January accelerated to 3.79% y/y, slightly missing projections, with moderate monthly price growth, allowing the regulator to maintain a cautious approach.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.19%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.60%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.40%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.16%. European stock indices closed with sharp gains on Monday, supported by banks, industrial giants, and the technology sector amid a series of positive corporate news and a steady view of relatively favorable macroeconomic conditions for equities this year.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.770 per dollar, approaching its highest levels since 2011 amid demand for safe-haven assets and USD weakness. Investors remain cautious due to risks surrounding AI and recommendations from Chinese regulators to reduce holdings in US Treasuries, which is intensifying capital outflows from the dollar. The market focus this week is on Swiss inflation data for January (February 13), where prices are expected to rise by only 0.1% y/y. SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel noted the challenges of low inflation with a 0% rate, emphasizing the bank’s readiness to intervene in the currency market if necessary, rather than rushing to cut rates, maintaining a course toward price stability.

On Tuesday, WTI oil prices declined toward $64.2 per barrel but retained most of the gains recorded on Monday amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Prices were supported by Washington’s warning to US-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz, despite reports of progress in negotiations held in Oman. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding a possible agreement persists as Iran continues to insist on uranium enrichment. An additional risk factor for the market remains the situation with Indian imports of Russian oil: a possible freeze on purchases as part of a new trade agreement with the US could significantly support oil quotes.

Asian markets rose confidently on Monday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped 3.89% after the weekend elections, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.24%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.76%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.85%. Sentiment in Asia improved after Japan’s ruling party won a convincing election victory, but investors are still grappling with an uncertain economic outlook and concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence on various sectors.
On Tuesday, the offshore yuan (CNH) strengthened to 6.9 per dollar, approaching a 34-month high following reports that Chinese regulators recommended banks reduce excessive exposure to US Treasuries. The measure is aimed at reducing concentration risks amid uncertain US economic policy and has strengthened expectations of a broader global shift away from dollar assets, as well as a gradual structural shift in China’s currency strategy. The yuan received additional support from increased corporate demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, when companies traditionally convert dollars for payroll, supplier settlements, and bonuses.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,964.82 +32.52 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,135.87 +20.20 (+0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 25,014.87 +293.41 (+1.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,386.23 +16.48 (+0.16%)

USD Index 96.86 −0.77% (−0.79%)

News feed for: 2026.02.10

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – NOK (MED)
  • US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Why corporate America is mostly staying quiet as federal immigration agents show up at its doors

By Alessandro Piazza, Rice University 

When U.S. Border Patrol agents entered a Target store in Richfield, Minnesota, in early January, detaining two employees, it marked a new chapter in the relationship between corporate America and the federal government.

Across the Twin Cities, federal immigration enforcement operations have turned businesses into sites of confrontation — with agents in store parking lots rounding up day laborers, armed raids on restaurants and work authorization inspections conducted in tactical gear.

Some retailers report revenue drops of 50% to 80% as customers stay home out of fear. Along Lake Street and in East St. Paul, areas within the Twin Cities, an estimated 80% of businesses have closed their doors at some point since the operations began.

Then came the killing of U.S. citizens Renee Good and Alex Pretti, the latter of which came a day after widespread protests and a one-day business blackout involving over 700 establishments.

The response of corporate America to those killings was instructive — both for what was said and left unsaid. After the Pretti killing, more than 60 CEOs from Minnesota’s largest companies — Target, 3M, UnitedHealth Group, U.S. Bancorp, General Mills, Best Buy and others — signed a public letter organized by the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce. The letter called for “peace,” “focused cooperation” among local, state and federal officials, and a “swift and durable solution” so that families, workers and businesses could return to normal.

What it didn’t do was name Pretti, mention federal immigration enforcement or criticize any specific policy or official. It read less like moral leadership and more like corporate risk management.

As a researcher who studies corporate political engagement, I think the Minnesota CEO letter is a window into a broader shift. For years, companies could take progressive stances with limited risk — activists would punish them if they remained silent on an issue, but conservatives rarely retaliated when they spoke up. That asymmetry has collapsed. Minneapolis shows what corporate activism looks like when the risks cut both ways: hedged language, no names named and calls for calm.

A shifting pattern

In 2022, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, corporate America was remarkably quiet compared with its vocal stances on LGBTQ+ rights or the war in Ukraine.

The explanation: Companies tend to hedge on issues that are contested and polarizing. In my research with colleagues on companies taking stances on LGBTQ+ rights in the United States, I’ve found that businesses frame their stances narrowly when issues are unsettled — focusing on workplace concerns and internal constituencies like employees rather than broader advocacy. Only after issues are legally or socially settled do some companies shift to clearer activism, adopting the language of social movements: injustice, moral obligation, calls to action.

By that logic, the Minnesota CEOs’ caution makes sense. The Trump administration’s federal immigration enforcement policy is deeply contested. There’s no clear legal or social settlement in sight.

But something else has changed since 2022 — something that goes beyond any particular issue.

For years, corporate activism operated under a favorable asymmetry that allowed them to stake out public positions on controversial topics without much negative consequence.

That is, activists and employees pressured companies to speak out on progressive causes, and silence carried real costs. Meanwhile, conservatives largely subscribed to free-market economist Milton Friedman’s view that the only social responsibility of business is to increase its profits. They generally didn’t demand corporate stances on their issues, and they didn’t organize sustained punishment for progressive corporate speech.

That asymmetry has collapsed

During the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020, corporations rushed to declare their commitments to racial justice, diversity and social responsibility. Many of those same companies have since quietly dismantled diversity, equity and inclusion programs, walked back public commitments and gone silent on issues they once called moral imperatives. It appears that their allegedly deeply held values were contingent on a favorable political environment. When the risks shifted, the values evaporated.

The turning point may have been Disney’s opposition to Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” law in 2022. The company faced criticism from employees and activists for not doing enough – and then fierce retaliation from Florida’s government, which stripped Disney of self-governing privileges it had held for 55 years.

In other high-profile examples, Delta lost tax breaks in Georgia after ending discounts for National Rifle Association members following the Parkland shooting. And Bud Light lost billions in market value after a single social media promotion that featured Dylan Mulvaney, a transgender influencer.

Conservatives learned to play the game that progressive activists invented. And unlike consumer boycotts, government retaliation carries a different kind of weight.

Minneapolis reveals the new calculus

What makes Minneapolis distinctive is that the federal government isn’t a distant policy actor debating legislation in Washington. It’s a physical presence in companies’ daily operations. When federal agents can show up at your store, detain your employees, raid your parking lot and audit your hiring records, the calculation about whether to criticize federal policy looks very different than when the worst-case scenario is an angry tweet from a politician.

Research finds that politicians are less willing to engage with CEOs who take controversial stances – even in private meetings – regardless of local economic conditions or the politicians’ own views on business. The chilling effect is real. As one observer noted, Minnesota companies communicated through industry associations specifically “to avoid direct exposure to possible retaliation.”

“De-escalation,” then, has become the corporate buzzword of choice because, as one news report in The Wall Street Journal noted, it “sounds humane while remaining politically noncommittal.” It points to a process goal – reduce conflict, restore order – rather than a contested diagnosis of responsibility.

This is the triple bind facing businesses in Minneapolis: pressure from the federal government on one side, pressure from activists and employees on the other, and the economic devastation from enforcement itself — comparable in some areas to the COVID-19 pandemic — crushing them in the middle. It’s a situation that rewards silence and punishes principle, and most companies are making the predictable choice.

And yet the situation within companies is also full of internal tensions, whether they’re companies headquartered in Minnesota or not. At tech company Palantir, which holds contracts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, employees took to internal Slack channels after Pretti’s death to express that they felt “not proud” to work for a company tied to what they described as “the bad guys.” Similar sentiments could be seen at elsewhere, where rank-and-file employees expressed far more vocal outrage than their bosses.

What comes next

The Minnesota CEO letter is what corporate political engagement looks like when the risks run in every direction: no injustice framing, no attribution of blame, no names named — just calls for stability and cooperation.

As a local Minneapolis writer put it in an op-ed: “Stand up, or sit down … because the Minnesotans who are standing up? We don’t recognize you.”

It’s not cowardice, exactly. It’s what the research predicts when an issue is contested and the costs of speaking cut both ways.

But it does mean Americans shouldn’t expect corporations to lead when government power is directly at stake. The conditions that enabled corporate activism on LGBTQ+ rights — an asymmetry where speaking out was relatively low-risk — don’t exist here.

Until the political landscape shifts, the hedged statement and the cautious coalition letter are the new normal. Corporate activism, it turns out, might always have been more about positioning than principle.The Conversation

About the Author:

Alessandro Piazza, Assistant Professor of Strategic Management, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Buyer interest has returned to stock indices. Bitcoin has returned to the $70,000 mark

By JustMarkets 

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with a sharp rally. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) surged by 2.47% (+2.74% for the week), hitting a new all-time high amid a broad recovery following the sharp correction earlier in the week. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.97% (+0.23% for the week), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 2.15% (-1.63% for the week). Diminishing concerns over short-term risks in the AI sector and easing pressure from forced deleveraging brought buyers back to the market, as many actively used the dip as an entry point. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also rose firmly, bolstered by a sharp reversal in the semiconductor segment and a recovery among key industry leaders.

On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) held above the $70,000 mark, stabilizing after sharp fluctuations late last week. Market sentiment moderately improved following significant inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating renewed interest from institutional and tactical investors who took advantage of the recent dip. Nevertheless, market participants remain cautious. Analysts note that it is not yet certain if the correction is fully over, and the current recovery could be technical in nature. Last week, Bitcoin lost all gains accumulated since the election of US President Donald Trump, dropping to $60,000 – its lowest level since October 2024.

European equity markets mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 0.94% (+1.35% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.43% (+2.34% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.11% (+0.75% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.59% (+1.43% for the week). The British Index continued its steady climb, recording its second consecutive positive weekly result. The main contributors were the banking sector and oil and gas giants, which benefited from a general lift in commodity markets, from oil to industrial and precious metals. Additional support for sentiment came from the Bank of England’s “dovish” hold: although rates remained unchanged, an unexpectedly narrow vote split intensified expectations for an earlier start to the easing cycle, with the market now pricing in a nearly 70% probability of a rate cut in March.

On Monday, silver (XAG) rose by approximately 5% to $82 per ounce, continuing a strong recovery following a nearly 10% jump on Friday. Traders have been actively buying the metal after a historic collapse in which prices lost nearly half their value. Simultaneously, market focus is shifting to key US employment and inflation data to be released this week, which could set the direction for Fed policy expectations.

WTI crude oil price saw volatile trading on Friday: prices initially declined due to easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, but later recovered to rise over 0.5%, reaching the $63.7 per barrel area. Pressure on the quotes came from positive signals from US-Iran nuclear program talks in Oman, which the Iranian side described as a “good start” with intentions to continue dialogue. This reduced fears of supply disruptions from a region accounting for about a third of global oil production. A negative factor was Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut official selling prices for its flagship crude to Asia to the lowest level since late 2020, highlighting a comfortable supply situation. However, the less aggressive-than-expected price cut indicates ongoing confidence in demand resilience.

On Monday, US natural gas (XNG) prices plummeted by 6.2% to approximately $3.20 per MMBtu, extending the previous session’s sell-off and hitting a more than three-week low. The primary downward factor was updated weather prognoses indicating sustained warming across much of the US. Milder temperatures are expected to reduce demand for heating and electricity generation, directly lowering natural gas consumption.

Asian markets traded without a single trend last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.27% over the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.98%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative 5-day result of 1.27%.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.70 USD on Monday, continuing last week’s gains amid cautiously hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Speaking before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that interest rates must remain high to curb persistent inflation. She also pointed to labor market resilience, which complicates the timing for any potential policy easing.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,932.30 +133.90 (+1.97%)

Dow Jones (US30) 50,115.67 +1,206.95 (+2.47%)

DAX (DE40) 24,721.46 +230.40 (+0.94%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,369.75 +60.53 (+0.59%)

USD Index 97.15 −0.86% (−0.90%)

News feed for: 2026.02.09

  • Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 18:00 (GMT+2). – EUR (LOW)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Bitcoin has dropped below $70,000. The Bank of Mexico held its rate at 7%

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, trading on the US stock market ended in a decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 1.20%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 1.23%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.59%. Pressure intensified in the consumer discretionary and communication services segments, where investors trimmed positions in overcrowded mega-cap stocks. Alphabet contributed to the negative trend, as its plans to sharply increase AI investments raised fresh questions about the monetization timeline for massive capital expenditures. Weakness also spread through the semiconductor sector following cautious guidance from Qualcomm, which pointed to cooling demand and inventory issues, dragging down the entire chip segment. Risk-off sentiment was reinforced by macro statistics: a rise in initial jobless claims and a sharp spike in corporate layoff announcements strengthened signals of a labor market slowdown and increased pressure on equities.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened after the Bank of Mexico decided to maintain its key interest rate at 7.00% and adopted a more cautious stance regarding future easing. The regulator pointed to intensifying inflationary risks, raised its long-term price growth prognoses, and emphasized a gradual approach for further steps, which cooled interest in carry trades and lowered expectations for sustained high real yields.

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $70,000 for the first time since October 2024, losing about a quarter of its value since the start of the year amid a massive reduction in speculative positions across the risk asset spectrum. The sharp decline was accompanied by deteriorating sentiment toward digital assets, undermining their reputation as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, especially given the simultaneous drop in gold prices. Bitcoin’s vulnerability was further exacerbated by its higher share in institutional portfolios, making it sensitive to broad risk-reduction regimes following spikes in volatility and tightening margin requirements.

European equity markets declined on Thursday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.46%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.29%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.97%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) ended at 0.90%. The European Central Bank (ECB), as expected, kept rates unchanged. However, Christine Lagarde’s comments cooled easing expectations, as the regulator took a restrained stance regarding slowing inflation and the strength of the euro.

Silver prices (XAG) fell sharply, dropping to $64.1 per ounce on Friday before recovering to levels above $70 per ounce, highlighting a surge in precious metals volatility. The decline occurred amid a broad reduction in risk appetite and the deleveraging of positions, which caused silver to look weaker than other safe-haven assets. Pressure was compounded by signals of a cooling US labor market, including rising unemployment claims and significant corporate layoffs, which bolstered expectations for a Fed policy easing toward the end of the year. However, the initial investor reaction was risk-off, triggering margin selling following last week’s sharp rise. Additional uncertainty stems from the discussion of Kevin Warsh’s candidacy for Fed Chair, while easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran temporarily reduced safe-haven demand.

WTI crude oil prices reversed sharply downward on Thursday, losing more than 3% and falling toward the $63 per barrel area, erasing the gains of the previous two sessions. Pressure on quotes was driven by easing geopolitical tensions following confirmation of upcoming talks between Iran and the US, which reduced fears of supply disruptions from a key OPEC producer and diminished the Middle East risk premium.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.88%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.14%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.43%.

On Friday, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) weakened to 16,880 per dollar, nearing its recent record low amid a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment. Pressure intensified after Moody’s downgraded Indonesia’s sovereign rating outlook to “negative,” citing decreased predictability of economic policy. This move followed an MSCI warning regarding transparency issues, which previously triggered a massive capital outflow from the local market and fueled doubts about governance quality. The domestic backdrop also remained weak: 2025 economic growth fell below the government target, strengthening expectations for additional policy easing by Bank Indonesia.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,798.40 −84.32 (−1.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,908.72 −592.58 (−1.20%)

DAX (DE40) 24,491.06 −111.98 (−0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,309.22 −93.12 (−0.90%)

USD Index 97.93 +0.32% (+0.32%)

News feed for: 2026.02.06

  • German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (LOW)
  • Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – SEK (MED)
  • Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (MED)
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
  • US Michigan Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Your brain can be trained, much like your muscles – a neurologist explains how to boost your brain health

By Joanna Fong-Isariyawongse, University of Pittsburgh 

If you have ever lifted a weight, you know the routine: challenge the muscle, give it rest, feed it and repeat. Over time, it grows stronger.

Of course, muscles only grow when the challenge increases over time. Continually lifting the same weight the same way stops working.

It might come as a surprise to learn that the brain responds to training in much the same way as our muscles, even though most of us never think about it that way. Clear thinking, focus, creativity and good judgment are built through challenge, when the brain is asked to stretch beyond routine rather than run on autopilot. That slight mental discomfort is often the sign that the brain is actually being trained, a lot like that good workout burn in your muscles.

Think about walking the same loop through a local park every day. At first, your senses are alert. You notice the hills, the trees, the changing light. But after a few loops, your brain checks out. You start planning dinner, replaying emails or running through your to-do list. The walk still feels good, but your brain is no longer being challenged.

Routine feels comfortable, but comfort and familiarity alone do not build new brain connections.

As a neurologist who studies brain activity, I use electroencephalograms, or EEGs, to record the brain’s electrical patterns.

Research in humans shows that these rhythms are remarkably dynamic. When someone learns a new skill, EEG rhythms often become more organized and coordinated. This reflects the brain’s attempt to strengthen pathways needed for that skill.

Your brain trains in zones too

For decades, scientists believed that the brain’s ability to grow and reorganize, called neuroplasticity, was largely limited to childhood. Once the brain matured, its wiring was thought to be largely fixed.

But that idea has been overturned. Decades of research show that adult brains can form new connections and reorganize existing networks, under the right conditions, throughout life.

Some of the most influential work in this field comes from enriched environment studies in animals. Rats housed in stimulating environments filled with toys, running wheels and social interaction developed larger, more complex brains than rats kept in standard cages. Their brains adapted because they were regularly exposed to novelty and challenge.

Human studies find similar results. Adults who take on genuinely new challenges, such as learning a language, dancing or practicing a musical instrument, show measurable increases in brain volume and connectivity on MRI scans.

The takeaway is simple: Repetition keeps the brain running, but novelty pushes the brain to adapt, forcing it to pay attention, learn and problem-solve in new ways. Neuroplasticity thrives when the brain is nudged just beyond its comfort zone.

The reality of neural fatigue

Just like muscles, the brain has limits. It does not get stronger from endless strain. Real growth comes from the right balance of challenge and recovery.

When the brain is pushed for too long without a break – whether that means long work hours, staying locked onto the same task or making nonstop decisions under pressure – performance starts to slip. Focus fades. Mistakes increase. To keep you going, the brain shifts how different regions work together, asking some areas to carry more of the load. But that extra effort can still make the whole network run less smoothly.

Neural fatigue is more than feeling tired. Brain imaging studies show that during prolonged mental work, the networks responsible for attention and decision-making begin to slow down, while regions that promote rest and reward-seeking take over. This shift helps explain why mental exhaustion often comes with stronger cravings for quick rewards, like sugary snacks, comfort foods or mindless scrolling. The result is familiar: slower thinking, more mistakes, irritability and mental fog.

This is where the muscle analogy becomes especially useful. You wouldn’t do squats for six hours straight, because your leg muscles would eventually give out. As they work, they build up byproducts that make each contraction a little less effective until you finally have to stop. Your brain behaves in a similar way.

Likewise, in the brain, when the same cognitive circuits are overused, chemical signals build up, communication slows and learning stalls.

But rest allows those strained circuits to reset and function more smoothly over time. And taking breaks from a taxing activity does not interrupt learning. In fact, breaks are critical for efficient learning.

The crucial importance of rest

Among all forms of rest, sleep is the most powerful.

Sleep is the brain’s night shift. While you rest, the brain takes out the trash through a special cleanup system called the glymphatic system that clears away waste and harmful proteins. Sleep also restores glycogen, a critical fuel source for brain cells.

And importantly, sleep is when essential repair work happens. Growth hormone surges during deep sleep, supporting tissue repair. Immune cells regroup and strengthen their activity.

During REM sleep, the stage of sleep linked to dreaming, the brain replays patterns from the day to consolidate memories. This process is critical not only for cognitive skills like learning an instrument but also for physical skills like mastering a move in sports.

On the other hand, chronic sleep deprivation impairs attention, disrupts decision-making and alters the hormones that regulate appetite and metabolism. This is why fatigue drives sugar cravings and late-night snacking.

Sleep is not an optional wellness practice. It is a biological requirement for brain performance.

Exercise feeds the brain too

Exercise strengthens the brain as well as the body.

Physical activity increases levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor, or BDNF, a protein that acts like fertilizer for neurons. It promotes the growth of new connections, increases blood flow, reduces inflammation and helps the brain remain adaptable across one’s lifespan.

This is why exercise is one of the strongest lifestyle tools for protecting cognitive health.

Train, recover, repeat

The most important lesson from this science is simple. Your brain is not passively wearing down with age. It is constantly remodeling itself in response to how you use it. Every new challenge and skill you try, every real break, every good night of sleep sends a signal that growth is still expected.

You do not need expensive brain training programs or radical lifestyle changes. Small, consistent habits matter more. Try something unfamiliar. Vary your routines. Take breaks before exhaustion sets in. Move your body. Treat sleep as nonnegotiable.

So the next time you lace up your shoes for a familiar walk, consider taking a different path. The scenery may change only slightly, but your brain will notice. That small detour is often all it takes to turn routine into training.

The brain stays adaptable throughout life. Cognitive resilience is not fixed at birth or locked in early adulthood. It is something you can shape.

If you want a sharper, more creative, more resilient brain, you do not need to wait for a breakthrough drug or a perfect moment. You can start now, with choices that tell your brain that growth is still the plan.The Conversation

About the Author: 

Joanna Fong-Isariyawongse, Associate Professor of Neurology, University of Pittsburgh

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The British Index has hit a new all-time high. Silver has plummeted by 16%

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, trading on the US stock market ended with mixed results. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.53%, the S&P 500 (US500) shed 0.51%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.51%. The technology sector took the hardest hit, primarily within semiconductors. A sharp plunge in AMD shares (-17%) following a weak prognosis triggered a sell-off across the entire chip sector. Against this backdrop, investors shifted toward more defensive and value assets. The healthcare sector outperformed the market thanks to strong earnings from Amgen, which supported the Dow Jones in finishing the day in positive territory. Meanwhile, macroeconomic signals failed to spark a reversal: ADP data indicated a sharp slowdown in private-sector employment growth, reinforcing the sense of a cooling labor market.

The US government shutdown was officially ended by President Trump signing the 2-week spending package yesterday.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) dropped below the $73,000 mark, hitting its lowest levels since November 2024, following stern statements from the US Treasury. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explicitly stated that the department has no authority to purchase Bitcoin or support the digital assets market as a whole, fueling investor fears regarding the lack of a government “safety net.” The digital assets have lost more than 40% from their autumn peak, and market sentiment remains fragile. Michael Burry warned of the risk of an intensifying sell-off, noting the vulnerability of companies that aggressively accumulated Bitcoin last year.

European equity markets traded without a unified trend on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.72%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 1.01%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) edged down by 0.09%. The British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.85%, hitting a new all-time high. The standout performer was the British pharmaceutical giant GSK, whose shares surged following strong quarterly results and the reaffirmation of long-term guidance that exceeded market expectations. The UK100 was further supported by oil giants Shell and BP amid continuing oil price gains, while mining companies faced pressure due to falling quotes for precious and industrial metals.

On Thursday, silver prices (XAG/USD) collapsed, losing 16.5% and dropping to around $73.5 per ounce, ending its recent short-term correction. Volatility in the precious metals market has surged once again, and the failed recovery attempt has heightened expectations for further declines, despite hopes for demand at lower levels. Additional pressure came from a strengthening dollar amid hawkish signals from the Fed and a revision of expectations regarding the pace of US rate cuts.

WTI crude oil prices rose toward $65 per barrel on Wednesday, approaching late-January highs as geopolitical risks spiked. Escalating tensions between the US and Iran brought the risk premium back to the market: prospects for nuclear program negotiations are deteriorating, and a recent incident involving the interception of Iranian drones has raised fears of escalation in the Middle East. Possible tightening of sanctions against Iran and risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are adding to supply anxieties. The supply side also supported quotes: US crude inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels, confirming a downward trend, albeit slightly weaker than expected.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) jumped nearly 5% on Wednesday to $3.46 per MMBtu, driven by increased fuel deliveries to export LNG terminals. In February, average daily gas flows to the eight largest liquefaction facilities rose to 18.3 billion cubic feet, nearing the December record and exceeding January figures. This surge in export demand highlights the structural role of the US in the global gas market: following the energy crisis of 2022, the country has solidified its status as the world’s largest LNG exporter.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.78%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.05%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.80%.

The Australian dollar held near $0.70 on Thursday, remaining close to its three-year highs thanks to a combination of hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank and strong foreign trade statistics. The trade surplus in December rose to AUD 3.37 billion, exceeding market expectations as commodity exports recovered while imports fell to multi-month lows. The currency found further support from the RBA’s February rate hike to 3.85%, accompanied by signals of potential further policy tightening.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,882.72 −35.09 (−0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,501.30 +260.31 (+0.53%)

DAX (DE40) 24,603.04 −177.75 (−0.72%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,402.34 +87.75 (+0.85%)

USD Index 97.67 +0.23% (+0.23%)

News feed for: 2026.02.05

  • Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • UK BoE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
  • Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
  • Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – XNG (HIGH)
  • Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2). – MXN (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Bitcoin has plummeted to a 14-month low. Silver jumped by more than 10%

By JustMarkets 

On Tuesday, trading on the US stock market concluded with a decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.34%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.84%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.43%. The primary pressure fell on companies related to artificial intelligence and semiconductors: Nvidia dropped 2.8%, Broadcom lost 3.3%, and Micron fell by 4.2%. The negative sentiment was amplified by rising US Treasury yields; the increase in long-term rates raised discount rates for growth stocks, making them less attractive.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has officially announced a delay in the publication of the January Non-farm Payrolls report due to the partial government shutdown. The absence of this key data is heightening uncertainty among market participants.

In early February, Bitcoin declined to $72,800, reaching its lowest level since November 2024 amid an increase in forced liquidations of leveraged positions and accelerating capital outflows. Industry data showed that over $730 million was liquidated during the sell-off. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that Bitcoin is in a multi-month bearish phase, noting that active institutional adoption and increased regulatory clarity may have led to investor overconfidence.

European equity markets traded without a single trend on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.02%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.02%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) ended at a negative 0.26%. On Wednesday, European markets opened lower, influenced by a global sell-off in tech stocks amid growing fears of potential disruptions in key industries due to AI developments. Investors in Europe are also awaiting the release of January Eurozone inflation data to gauge future monetary policy steps. The ECB and the Bank of England will announce their decisions on Thursday, with the market consensus expecting rates to remain unchanged.

On Tuesday, the silver market recorded a price surge of more than 10%, bringing quotes to $87.5 per ounce. Despite the volatility, the geopolitical risk premium remains high. Markets are closely monitoring preparations for talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Friday. Simultaneously, tensions persist on the Eastern European front: Ukraine has stated its readiness to resume peace talks amid another escalation of missile strikes by the Russian Federation.

Platinum (XPT) has once again consolidated above $2,200 per ounce, as investors actively bought the metal following a recent sell-off where quotes dipped below $2,000 for the first time since December. The sharp volatility resulted from profit-taking after last week’s record rally and was intensified by Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whom the market views as a more hawkish candidate. However, downside potential remains limited by fundamental supply factors – the platinum market remains in a structural deficit, and mining in South Africa (accounting for about 70% of global production) is constrained by chronic underinvestment and operational issues.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped 3.92%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.22%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.89%.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) declined to 0.603 USD, retreating from a nearly seven-month high following mixed labor market data that strengthened expectations for the RBNZ to hold interest rates steady. The Q4 unemployment rate rose to 5.4%, the highest since 2015 and slightly above both the previous figure and market expectations of 5.3%. Money markets indicate that the cash rate will likely remain at 2.25% until at least September, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike by that time estimated at approximately 78%.

The offshore yuan (CNH) held near 6.93 per dollar, remaining close to its highest level since May 2023, amid improved outlooks for the currency and strengthening market sentiment. Major international investment banks have become more optimistic about the yuan’s potential after it firmly consolidated below the key 7.00 level at the end of last year. Throughout 2025, the yuan strengthened by approximately 4.5% against the US dollar, supported by a weakening Greenback and growing confidence in China’s macroeconomic stabilization.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,917.81 −58.63 (−0.84%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,240.99 −166.67 (−0.34%)

DAX (DE40) 24,780.79 −16.73 (−0.07%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,314.59 −26.97 (−0.26%)

USD Index 97.36 −0.27% (−0.28%)

News feed for: 2026.02.04

  • Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
  • China RatingDog Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
  • Eurozone Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2). – WTI (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The world is in water bankruptcy, UN scientists report – here’s what that means

By Kaveh Madani, United Nations University 

The world is now using so much fresh water amid the consequences of climate change that it has entered an era of water bankruptcy, with many regions no longer able to bounce back from frequent water shortages.

About 4 billion people – nearly half the global population – live with severe water scarcity for at least one month a year, without access to sufficient water to meet all of their needs. Many more people are seeing the consequences of water deficit: dry reservoirs, sinking cities, crop failures, water rationing and more frequent wildfires and dust storms in drying regions.

Water bankruptcy signs are everywhere, from Tehran, where droughts and unsustainable water use have depleted reservoirs the Iranian capital relies on, adding fuel to political tensions, to the U.S., where water demand has outstripped the supply in the Colorado River, a crucial source of drinking water and irrigation for seven states.

A woman fills containers with water from a well. cows are behind her on a dry landscape.
Droughts have made finding water for cattle more difficult and have led to widespread malnutrition in parts of Ethiopia in recent years. In 2022, UNICEF estimated that as many as 600,000 children would require treatment for severe malnutrition.
Demissew Bizuwerk/UNICEF Ethiopia, CC BY

Water bankruptcy is not just a metaphor for water deficit. It is a chronic condition that develops when a place uses more water than nature can reliably replace, and when the damage to the natural assets that store and filter that water, such as aquifers and wetlands, becomes hard to reverse.

A new study I led with the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health concludes that the world has now gone beyond temporary water crises. Many natural water systems are no longer able to return to their historical conditions. These systems are in a state of failure – water bankruptcy.

Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, explains the concept of “water bankruptcy.” TVRI World.

What water bankruptcy looks like in real life

In financial bankruptcy, the first warning signs often feel manageable: late payments, borrowed money and selling things you hoped to keep. Then the spiral tightens.

Water bankruptcy has similar stages.

At first, we pull a little more groundwater during dry years. We use bigger pumps and deeper wells. We transfer water from one basin to another. We drain wetlands and straighten rivers to make space for farms and cities.

Then the hidden costs show up. Lakes shrink year after year. Wells need to go deeper. Rivers that once flowed year-round turn seasonal. Salty water creeps into aquifers near the coast. The ground itself starts to sink.

How the Aral Sea shrank from 2000 to 2011. It was once closer to oval, covering the light-colored areas as recently as the 1980s, but overuse for agriculture by multiple countries drew it down.
NASA

That last one, subsidence, often surprises people. But it’s a signature of water bankruptcy. When groundwater is overpumped, the underground structure, which holds water almost like a sponge, can collapse. In Mexico City, land is sinking by about 10 inches (25 centimeters) per year. Once the pores become compacted, they can’t simply be refilled.

The Global Water Bankruptcy report, published on Jan. 20, 2026, documents how widespread this is becoming. Groundwater extraction has contributed to significant land subsidence over more than 2.3 million square miles (6 million square kilometers), including urban areas where close to 2 billion people live. Jakarta, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City are among the well-known examples in Asia.

A large sinkhole near farm fields.
A sinkhole in Turkey’s agricultural heartland shows how the landscape can collapse when more groundwater is extracted than nature can replenish.
Ekrem07, 2023, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

Agriculture is the world’s biggest water user, responsible for about 70% of the global freshwater withdrawals. When a region goes water bankrupt, farming becomes more difficult and more expensive. Farmers lose jobs, tensions rise and national security can be threatened.

About 3 billion people and more than half of global food production are concentrated in areas where water storage is already declining or unstable. More than 650,000 square miles (1.7 million square kilometers) of irrigated cropland are under high or very high water stress. That threatens the stability of food supplies around the world.

Droughts are also increasing in duration, frequency and intensity as global temperatures rise. Over 1.8 billion people – nearly 1 in 4 humans – dealt with drought conditions at various times from 2022 to 2023.

These numbers translate into real problems: higher food prices, hydroelectricity shortages, health risks, unemployment, migration pressures, unrest and conflicts.

Is the world ready to cope with water-related national security risks? CNN.

How did we get here?

Every year, nature gives each region a water income, depositing rain and snow. Think of this like a checking account. This is how much water we receive each year to spend and share with nature.

When demand rises, we might borrow from our savings account. We take out more groundwater than will be replaced. We steal the share of water needed by nature and drain wetlands in the process. That can work for a while, just as debt can finance a wasteful lifestyle for a while.

Those long-term water sources are now disappearing. The world has lost more than 1.5 million square miles (4.1 million square kilometers) of natural wetlands over five decades. Wetlands don’t just hold water. They also clean it, buffer floods and support plants and wildlife.

Water quality is also declining. Pollution, saltwater intrusion and soil salinization can result in water that is too dirty and too salty to use, contributing to water bankruptcy.

A map shows most of Africa, South Asia and large parts of the Western U.S. have high levels of water-related risks.
Overall water-risk scores reflect the aggregate value of water quantity, water quality and regulatory and reputational risks to water supplies. Higher values indicate greater water-related risks.
United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, based on Aqueduct 4.0, CC BY

Climate change is exacerbating the situation by reducing precipitation in many areas of the world. Warming increases the water demand of crops and the need for electricity to pump more water. It also melts glaciers that store fresh water.

Despite these problems, nations continue to increase water withdrawals to support the expansion of cities, farmland, industries and now data centers.

Not all water basins and nations are water bankrupt, but basins are interconnected through trade, migration, climate and other key elements of nature. Water bankruptcy in one area will put more pressure on others and can increase local and international tensions.

What can be done?

Financial bankruptcy ends by transforming spending. Water bankruptcy needs the same approach:

  • Stop the bleeding: The first step is admitting the balance sheet is broken. That means setting water use limits that reflect how much water is actually available, rather than just drilling deeper and shifting the burden to the future.
  • Protect natural capital – not just the water: Protecting wetlands, restoring rivers, rebuilding soil health and managing groundwater recharge are not just nice-to-haves. They are essential to maintaining healthy water supplies, as is a stable climate.
A woman pushes a wheelbarrow with a contain filled with freshwater. The ocean is behind her in the view.
In small island states like the Maldives, sea-level rise threatens water supplies when salt water gets into underground aquifers, ruining wells.
UNDP Maldives 2021, CC BY
  • Use less, but do it fairly: Managing water demand has become unavoidable in many places, but water bankruptcy plans that cut supplies to the poor while protecting the powerful will fail. Serious approaches include social protections, support for farmers to transition to less water-intensive crops and systems, and investment in water efficiency.
  • Measure what matters: Many countries still manage water with partial information. Satellite remote sensing can monitor water supplies and trends, and provide early warnings about groundwater depletion, land subsidence, wetland loss, glacier retreat and water quality decline.
  • Plan for less water: The hardest part of bankruptcy is psychological. It forces us to let go of old baselines. Water bankruptcy requires redesigning cities, food systems and economies to live within new limits before those limits tighten further.

With water, as with finance, bankruptcy can be a turning point. Humanity can keep spending as if nature offers unlimited credit, or it can learn to live within its hydrological means.The Conversation

About the Author: 

Kaveh Madani, Director of the Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

3 things to know about Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nod for Fed chair

By D. Brian Blank, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Appalachian State University 

After months of speculation, President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh on Jan. 30, 2026, to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

If confirmed by Congress, Warsh will inherit leadership of the U.S. central bank at a delicate time. For months, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has come under attack from the Trump administration for failing to heed the president’s call for lower interest rates. The fight has put into question the central bank’s independence and its role in stewarding the economy.

Powell’s term as chair will end in mid-May, leaving his successor to navigate an economy that has improved on some fronts but remains uneven and uncertain.

But what should America expect from the next Fed chair? Here are three things to note about Trump’s nominee.

1. He is a familiar face …

Warsh brings deep experience with monetary policymaking to the role.

A graduate of Stanford University and Harvard Law School, he served as special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush before becoming one of the youngest members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Warsh is no newcomer to discussions about Federal Reserve leadership. He was a finalist for the job in 2017, when Trump instead appointed Powell. Trump has since stated that he made a mistake by not selecting Warsh then – though clashes between Trump and Powell may have influenced that view.

Warsh’s credentials are unquestionable. As a governor of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011, he worked closely with other policymakers and with Wall Street during the global financial crisis of 2008. Since departing the Fed, he has returned to Stanford as a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and a lecturer at the Graduate School of Business, as well as a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.

He also has ties to the finance industry. He began his career in mergers and acquisitions at Morgan Stanley and, since leaving the Fed, has worked as a partner at Duquesne Family Office, an investment firm that manages the personal wealth of hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller and other investors.

In 2016, Trump included Warsh in an economic advisory group assembled during his transition. Critics of Warsh’s nomination point toward his father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, a college friend and donor of the president, as evidence of politicization.

2. … with evolving monetary views

The big question people have is what a Warsh Fed would mean for monetary policy – that is, is it likely to play tight or loose with rates.

When the economy is growing quickly, like in 2021, the Federal Reserve tightens policy by raising interest rates to avoid the kind of economic growth that may not be sustainable long term and can lead to bubbles. However, during downturns, like in 2008 or 2020, the economic policy that can provide a backstop for the economy is looser. The Fed tends to lower rates in these situations, which supports growth.

Warsh’s views on monetary policy have long been considered hawkish, meaning he is inclined toward tighter policy and generally higher interest rates to keep inflation in check, even at the expense of slower economic growth. During his previous tenure at the Fed, he signaled concern about expansive monetary tools such as quantitative easing, in which the central bank buys Treasurys and other securities to stimulate the economy. This resulted in what Warsh called a “bloated” Fed balance sheet that held almost US$9 trillion of debt at its peak in 2022.

In recent public remarks leading up to his nomination, however, he has increasingly aligned in part with Trump’s push for lower interest rates and discussed establishing a new Treasury-Fed Accord, like in 1951, when Fed independence from fiscal authorities such as the Treasury Department was established.

3. His nod highlights fight over Fed independence

A central question surrounding this nomination is whether it promotes the politicization of the Federal Reserve.

The Fed’s independence from day-to-day political pressure has long been viewed as a cornerstone of U.S. economic policymaking. Decisions about interest rates, inflation control and financial stability are insulated from electoral politics for that reason. A truly independent Fed can resist making decisions that provide a short-term economic bump – something incumbent governments tend to like – but may lead to longer-term economic pain down the road.

The Fed tends to use its monetary policy tools carefully. Yet politicians tend to want looser monetary policy so the economy grows fast and they get credit for it.

And Warsh’s nomination can be seen in the context of a broader push from the executive branch to exert greater influence over monetary policy. Given Trump’s public criticism of Powell and vocal calls for his early departure, the president almost certainly intended to nominate someone who would lower interest rates according to preferences stated by the administration.

Critics of the nomination have argued that Warsh has a tendency to be more opportunistic with his policy views than Powell and other economists, who try to ignore political preferences.

As such, Warsh’s nomination encapsulates more than just a leadership transition. It highlights the ongoing tensions between political priorities and the traditional economic playbook, between short-term growth pressures and long-term stability, and between institutional independence and democratic accountability.

Time will tell whether he turns out to be hawkish or politically motivated as chair, if he is confirmed.The Conversation

About the Author:

D. Brian Blank, Associate Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University and Brandy Hadley, Associate Professor of Finance and Distinguished Scholar of Applied Investments, Appalachian State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

US natural gas prices collapsed by 21%. The RBA raised its interest rate by 0.25%

By JustMarkets 

On Monday, trading on the US stock market concluded with solid gains. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.05%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.54%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.56%. The growth was primarily driven by tech and growth stocks: Apple shares jumped over 3%, AMD rose nearly 5%, and Micron added over 5%. Alphabet and Amazon also traded firmly ahead of their earnings reports later this week. Oracle saw a slight correction following its recent rally linked to a $50 billion capital-raising plan, while Nvidia declined by approximately 2% amid ongoing uncertainty regarding its frozen $100 billion investment in OpenAI.

European equity markets mostly rose on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) climbed 1.05%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.67%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.31%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.15%. In the first half of the day, European stocks were under pressure due to a sharp crash in precious metals prices, which led to increased margin calls on key derivative exchanges. However, fears of systemic liquidity issues did not materialize, and the market reversed upward, showing growth across all sectors. Banking stocks were among the leaders, with Santander, UniCredit, ING, and Nordea gaining between 2-3%.

During Monday’s Asian session, silver quotes (XAG) dropped to $77 per ounce following Friday’s 30% collapse – the largest one-day decline in history, which almost entirely wiped out the year-to-date gains. Just last Thursday, silver had hit an all-time high exceeding $120 per ounce. The sharp market reversal followed reports of President Donald Trump’s intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, a move market participants viewed as a signal for a more hawkish monetary policy. Despite the current decline, silver continues to find some support from a structural supply deficit and the “debasement trade,” where investors reallocate capital from currencies and bonds into physical assets amid concerns over rising government debt, geopolitical uncertainty, and doubts about Fed independence.

WTI crude oil prices fell by more than 4.5% on Monday, dropping to $62.2 per barrel, marking the sharpest one-day decline in over six months. Pressure intensified after President Trump stated that Washington is in talks with Iran, easing fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Iranian officials also signaled a readiness for dialogue, further calming investors who had priced in conflict risks. The price drop was exacerbated by a broader sell-off in commodity markets, particularly in metals.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) plummeted by 21% to $3.42 per MMBtu, completely erasing Friday’s 11% gain. This came after short-term weather prognoses shifted toward milder conditions, reducing expected demand. The market has been highly volatile; the February contract hit a three-year high last week due to storm-related production disruptions and heating demand. However, updated expectations from NOAA indicate above-normal temperatures across much of the US through mid-month, likely curbing demand for heating and power generation.

Asian markets mostly declined yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.25%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped 1.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 2.23%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.02%.

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.70 on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at its first monetary policy meeting of 2026, unanimously raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, fully meeting market expectations. This marked the first hike since November 2023 and highlighted a resurgence in inflationary pressures that intensified in late 2025 due to rising service sector costs and a tight labor market. The RBA noted that inflation is likely to remain above the 2-3% target range for some time, reflecting resilient economic dynamics.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,976.44 +37.41 (+0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,407.66 +515.19 (+1.05%)

DAX (DE40) 24,797.52 +258.71 (+1.05%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,341.56 +118.02 (+1.15%)

USD Index 97.58 +0.59% (+0.60%)

News feed for: 2026.02.03

  • Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
  • Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (HIGH)
  • Australia RBA Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
  • US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
  • New Zealand Unemployment Rate (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.