Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 148

From in-crowds to power couples, network science uncovers the hidden structure of community dynamics

By Mayank Kejriwal, University of Southern California 

– The world is a networked place, literally and figuratively. The field of network science is used today to understand phenomena as diverse as the spread of misinformation, West African trade and protein-protein interactions in cells.

Network science has uncovered several universal properties of complex social networks, which in turn has made it possible to learn details of particular networks. For example, the network consisting of the international financial corruption scheme uncovered by the Panama Papers investigation has an unusual lack of connections among its parts.

But understanding the hidden structures of key elements of social networks, such as subgroups, has remained elusive. My colleagues and I have found two complex patterns in these networks that can help researchers better understand the hierarchies and dynamics of these elements. We found a way to detect powerful “inner circles” in large organizations simply by studying networks that map emails being sent among employees.

We demonstrated the utility of our methods by applying them to the famous Enron network. Enron was an energy trading company that perpetrated fraud on a massive scale. Our study further showed that the method can potentially be used to detect people who wield enormous soft power in an organization regardless of their official title or position. This could be useful for historical, sociological and economic research, as well as government, legal and media investigations.

From pencil and paper to artificial intelligence

Sociologists have been constructing and studying smaller social networks in careful field experiments for at least 80 years, well before the advent of the internet and online social networks. The concept is so simple that it can be drawn on paper: Entities of interest – people, businesses, countries – are nodes represented as points, and relationships between pairs of nodes are links represented as lines drawn between the points.

Two sets of dots with lines connecting some of the dots
An abstract network, at left, shows lines between points representing relationships. The network on the right shows a small fragment of a real-world network of West African traders, based on data from Oliver J. Walther. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2015.1010152.
Mayank Kejriwal, CC BY-ND

Using network science to study human societies and other complex systems took on new meaning in the late 1990s when researchers discovered some universal properties of networks. Some of these universal properties have since entered mainstream pop culture. One concept is the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, based on the famous empirical finding that any two people on Earth are six or fewer links apart. Similarly, versions of statements such as “the rich get richer” and “winner takes all” have also been replicated in some networks.

These global properties, meaning ones applying to the entire network, seemingly emerge from the myopic and local actions of independent nodes. When I connect with someone on LinkedIn, I am certainly not thinking of the global consequences of my connection on the LinkedIn network. Yet my actions, along with those of many others, eventually lead to predictable, rather than random, outcomes about how the network will evolve.

My colleagues and I have used network science to study human trafficking in the U.K., the structure of noise in artificial intelligence systems’ outputs, and financial corruption in the Panama Papers.

Groups have their own structure

Along with studying emergent properties like the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, researchers have also used network science to focus on problems such as community detection. Stated simply, can a set of rules, otherwise known as an algorithm, automatically discover groups or communities within a collection of people?

Today there are hundreds, if not thousands, of community detection algorithms, some relying on advanced AI methods. They are used for many purposes, including finding communities of interest and uncovering malicious groups on social media. Such algorithms encode intuitive assumptions, such as the expectation that nodes belonging to the same group are more densely connected to one another than nodes belonging to different groups.

Although an exciting line of work, community detection does not study the internal structure of communities. Should communities be thought of only as collections of nodes in networks? And what about communities that are small but particularly influential, such as inner circles and in-crowds?

Two hypothetical structures for influential groups

In a manner of speaking, you likely already have some inkling of the structure of very small groups in social networks. The truth of the adage that “a friend of my friend is also my friend” can be tested statistically in friendship networks by counting the number of triangles in the network and determining whether this number is higher than chance alone could explain. And indeed, many social network studies have been used to verify the claim.

Unfortunately, the concept starts breaking down when extended to groups with more than three members. Although motifs have been well studied in both algorithmic computer science and biology, they have not been reliably linked to influential groups in real communication networks.

six sets of four dots each with different configurations of lines connecting the dots
Six examples of motifs with four nodes.
Mayank Kejriwal, CC BY-ND

Building on this tradition, my doctoral student Ke Shen and I found and presented two structures that seem elaborate but turn out to be quite common in real networks.

The first structure extends the triangle, not by adding more nodes, but by directly adding triangles. Specifically, there is a central triangle that is flanked by other peripheral triangles. Importantly, the third person in any peripheral triangle must not be linked to the third person on the central triangle, thereby excluding them from the true inner circle of influence.

The second structure is similar but assumes that there is no central triangle, and the inner circle is just a pair of nodes. A real-life example might be two co-founders of a startup like Sergey Brin and Larry Page of Google, or a power couple with joint interests, common in global politics, like Bill and Hillary Clinton.

Understanding influential groups in an infamous network

We tested our hypothesis on the Enron email network, which is well studied in network science, with nodes representing email addresses and links representing communication among those addresses. Despite being elaborate, not only were our proposed structures present in the network in greater numbers than chance alone would predict, but a qualitative analysis showed that there is merit to the claim that they represent influential groups.

Two diagrams of overlapping sets of triangles labeled with names of people
Examples of the two structures found in the Enron network. More such structures are present in the network and cannot be explained by chance alone.
Mayank Kejriwal, CC BY-ND

The main characters in the Enron saga are well documented by now. Intriguingly, some of these characters do not seem to have had much official influence but may have wielded significant soft power. An example is Sherri Reinartz-Sera, who was the longtime administrative assistant of Jeffrey K. Skilling, the former chief executive of Enron. Unlike Skilling, Sera was only mentioned in a New York Times article following investigative reporting that took place during the course of the scandal. However, our algorithm discovered an influential group with Sera occupying a central position.

Dissecting power dynamics

Society has intricate structures at the levels of individuals, friendships and communities. In-crowds are not just ragtag groups of characters talking to one another, or a single ringleader calling all the shots. Many in-crowds, or influential groups, have a sophisticated structure.

While much still remains to be discovered about such groups and their influence, network science can help uncover their complexity.The Conversation

About the Author:

Mayank Kejriwal, Research Assistant Professor of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged. The ECB will raise interest rates today

By JustForex

Wall Street closed up yesterday thanks to a jump in tech stocks on optimistic earnings. At the close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.15%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.59%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.58%. According to Definitiv, the S&P 500 (US 500) will show a 5.9% year-over-year gain this earnings season, down from an estimate of 6.8% at the beginning of the quarter. Unrestrained inflation initially led markets to estimate a 100 basis point interest rate hike at next week’s upcoming Fed meeting, but 80% probability is now on the side of a 75 basis point hike.

Shares of electric car maker Tesla (TSLA ) rose by 2% in extended trading after reporting higher quarterly earnings. Danaher (DHR), AT&T (T), Philip Morris (PM), Union Pacific (UNP), Blackstone Group (BX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and Snap (SNAP) will report today.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.20% yesterday, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.27%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.18%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.44%.

According to the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), producer prices for manufactured goods were 32.7% higher in June 2022 than in June 2021. In monthly terms, producer prices added 0.6%. In the UK, the Consumer Price Index reached 9.4% on an annual basis compared to 9.1% in May. Monthly inflation rose by 0.8%. The biggest upward contributions to the annual inflation rate were made by household services (mainly electricity, gas, and other fuels) and transportation (mainly due to higher gasoline and diesel prices). The last time this level of inflation was seen in the country was in March 1991. The Bank of England is very likely to raise the interest rate immediately by 0.5% at its next meeting.

Today is that long-awaited ECB interest rate meeting where the ECB will raise the interest rate. The single currency is up about 2% in the last three trading sessions on expectations that the ECB may raise interest rates significantly by 50 basis points, as well as Reuters reports that a key Russian gas pipeline will open on time after maintenance. But most likely, ECB head Christine Lagarde will not risk her reputation, so it is easier for the ECB to hold the first 0.25% increase and the next one already at 0.5% or even 0.75%. Investors’ attention will also be focused on the so-called “anti-fragmentation” package, which is expected to be announced along with the interest rate decision.

On Wednesday, the European Union urged member states to cut gas use by 15% by March as an emergency measure after President Vladimir Putin warned that Russian supplies routed through Europe’s largest pipeline could be cut or even halted.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi won a vote of confidence in the upper chamber’s Senate on Wednesday, but the three main coalition parties refused to participate.

Oil prices are falling as demand concerns outweigh limited supply. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels last week, well above analysts forecasts.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.67%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.11%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 1.65%.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates and monetary policy unchanged. The monetary policy report highlights concerns about the economy above any potential impact on the yen. The BOJ lowered its economic growth forecast for this year, so the falling economy needs continued support. The inflation forecast was 2.3% for the end of the year. So the BoJ is still targeting stimulus, despite a wave of interest rate hikes by other central banks. But it should be noted that there are some changes in the Bank of Japan’s board members. The government announced Tuesday that it would appoint Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura as new BOJ board members. Both representatives criticize excessive easing policies, especially Takata-san. Therefore, there is a possibility that there could be a change in the Bank of Japan’s rhetoric soon.

The economic outlook for China remains fragile, which fuels negative sentiment around the world as well. Despite China having recovered quickly from the stringent Covid restrictions, worries about the housing sector and the high likelihood of new restrictions are undermining confidence and keeping consumers on edge.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,959.90 +23.21 (+0.59%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,874.84 +47.79 (+0.15%)

DAX (DE40) 13,281.98 −26.43 (−0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,264.31 −31.97 (−0.44%)

USD Index 107.08 +0.40 (+0.37%)

Important events for today:
  • – BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – BoJ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

ECB Decision: What you need to know

By ForexTime

Investors and traders worldwide are keenly anticipating the European Central Bank’s policy announcements today.

Here are some major points to look out for:

  1. The ECB’s first rate hike since 2011

It is widely expected that the ECB will raise its benchmark interest rates today for the first time since 2011.

What matters now is the size of the hike.

Markets have come to expect at least a 25 basis point hike. However, markets are also expecting about a 50% chance that we could see a larger-than-usual 50 basis point hike today (a la “two-in-one” hike).

This is because the ECB has to play catch up with record-high inflation. Europe’s June consumer price index (used to measure headline inflation) hit 8.6% in June – that’s over four times the ECB’s inflation target of 2%.

And with about 80 other central banks around the world already raising their respective rates, its high time that the ECB follows suit.

NOTE: Interest rate hikes are a central bank’s main tool for taming elevated inflation.

 

  1. Anti-fragmentation tool

    As the ECB raises rates and gradually reduces its bond buying, investors have been following suit, selling off European bonds in tandem with the central bank. That has resulted in European bond yields moving higher.

    However, the fear is that “fragmentation” will occur, meaning to say that bond yields in more vulnerable economies down to the south (i.e. Italy) climb way higher relative to bond yields of relatively stronger economies (i.e. Germany).

    Much-higher yields then make it that much more expensive for a government to raise debt (get money from investors). As the government uses more money to pay interest on the debt that they issue, that money would then not be available to be spent on supporting its economy.

    Hence, soaring yields of highly-indebted members risks undermining the economy; a scenario that the ECB is trying to avoid.

    Today, the ECB is expected to announce details of a new tool to help limit these so-called fragmentation risks.

    More importantly, the ECB has to convince markets that this new tool can indeed achieve its goals.

 

When is it due?

Heads up, it’ll be later than usual.

  • The policy statement is due at 12:15PM GMT (30 minutes later than past release times)
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to hold a press conference, starting at 12:45PM GMT (15 minutes later than past start times)

 

How could all this impact the euro currency?

  • If the ECB triggers only a 25-basis point hike, that could prompt EURUSD to unwind recent gains. This may be because markets think the ECB is falling further behind in the race to combat inflation.
  • If the ECB triggers a larger 50bps hike, that may only provide limited support for EURUSD, given that there are other major worries when considering the Eurozone’s economic outlook (more on this further down).
  • If markets are not convinced that the ECB’s anti-fragmentation tool can do the job, that could further erode sentiment surrounding the euro.
  • If markets are convinced about the efficacy of this new anti-fragmentation tool, that could help shore up the euro’s performance.

Also, expect a combination of the above scenarios.

 

Key support and resistance levels for EURUSD

  • Resistance: 21-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.027.
  • Stronger resistance set to arrive around 1.035 region, which market the May and June lows.

 

  • Support : Parity =1.000 psychologically-important mark

READ MORE: (July 14th) Why isn’t EURUSD below parity … yet?

  • Stronger support perhaps to arrive at the recent cycle low of 0.99522.

 

EURUSD may plummet back to parity if ECB disappoints markets

 

 

Other major concerns to keep an eye on

  • Italy’s political chaos

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has resigned.

The political crisis in Europe’s third largest economy is a major concern for the ECB as policymakers try to combat record-high inflation without doing too much damage to the economy.

Such heightened uncertainty has already increased market fears surrounding Europe’s third-largest economy, prompting investors to sell Italian bonds and send their yields higher today, which exacerbates the “fragmentation risks” mentioned earlier.

 

  • Europe’s potential energy crisis.

Russia today restored its gas supplies to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

In the lead up to today, markets had feared that Russia could decide not to turn on the taps again after the pipeline has completed its scheduled maintenance.
As I had written in last Thursday’s article:

“Such an apocalyptic event would spark an energy crisis in Europe, and further darken its economic outlook by making a recession all but certain. That could even send EURUSD careening past 0.95!

 

So, phew … for now.

Still, energy supplies are expected to face further constraints further down the line, especially as we head closer to the winter. The lack of gas supplies may force factories and business to shutter operations, which would negatively impact the economy as well.

 

 

Back to today’s main event, if the ECB severely disappoints markets in just a few hours from now, we might even see in the coming sessions a new cycle low for EURUSD below parity.

In short, EURUSD is expected to remain firmly in its downtrend that its adhered to for the past year, with scant reason to expect a sustained recovery in the euro over the near-term.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

UK inflation hitting 9.4% shows Bank of England is shamefully incompetent

By George Prior

The Bank of England is failing the UK with its woeful inflation management, fuelling a painful cost of living crisis, and overseeing a British pound with sinking credibility.

This is the warning from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, as UK inflation hits a new 40-year high of 9.4%.

He says: “The UK’s historic cost of living crisis has officially got even worse for families and businesses across the country as inflation hit 9.4%, a fresh four-decade high.

“This shines the harsh spotlight again on how the Bank of England is failing the UK with its shamefully incompetent grip on the worst inflationary surge in 40 years.

“It underscores that the central bank was complacent and passive about consumer prices last year when the country emerged from coronavirus lockdowns.”

He continues: “Policymakers at the BoE will try and defend themselves by blaming external events, mainly the war in Ukraine – which, of course, haven’t helped.

“But the problems, including supply chain disruptions and massive fiscal spending for pandemic relief, were staring them in the face before the invasion. These issues did not spring out of nowhere.”

The historic 9.4% inflation will likely prompt the UK’s central bank to decide on a 50-basis point hike at its August policy meeting, says the deVere CEO, which also has inherent risks.

“The Bank of England has already failed on inflation with its grand-scale inaction and miscalculation early on.

“There’s now another risk that it hits the brakes too hard at its meeting next month, and future ones, with excessive rate hikes, which could push the consumer-led economy into not only a short-term but a longer-term recession.”

Last month, Nigel Green spoke publicly in support of the Wall Street giant Bank of America which recently claimed that the politicization of the Bank of England and a weakening economy risk turning the pound into an ‘emerging-market-like currency.

He said: “The well-flagged, international and domestic concerns that the Bank of England is in danger of losing its mandate as it struggles to contain inflation, could create the perfect storm for the pound.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “The Bank of England is failing, and its failure is hurting households and businesses across the country.

“If the public loses confidence in the ability of the central bank to control inflation – which is currently 7.4% higher than the bank’s target – there’s a real risk that people will demand wage increases to compensate, which could trigger a 1970s-style scenario that drives the cost of living even higher.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Investors turn their attention to the earning season

By JustForex

US stock indices rose on Tuesday as investors temporarily put aside recession fears and dived into the reporting season. Investors are taking a close look at factors, how companies are struggling with higher costs and persistent supply problems, and how consumer behavior is changing amid persistently high inflation. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.43%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.11% yesterday.

The number of new homes in the US fell in June to its lowest level in over a year as demand declined due to the pandemic boom. Rising mortgage rates and record-high home prices have sidelined many potential buyers.

Twitter (TWTR) shares jumped nearly 3% after a Delaware Court of Chancery judge said the social network may accelerate its lawsuit against Elon Musk, setting a trial date in October. Shares of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) fell by 0.7% after the military contractor said fighter jet sales fell and lowered its 2022 revenue and profit targets. Shares of Netflix increased by 7% on the report, despite the company losing 970,000 subscribers in the last quarter. But the outlook for the third quarter indicates that the company will return to customer growth and also plans to launch an ad-supported option. Tesla (TSLA), ASML (ASML), Abbott Labs (ABT), Biogen (BIIB), Baker Hughes (BKR), and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) all report today.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. German DAX (DE30) gained 2.69% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.79%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.03%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed with 1.01% gain.

The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone in June 2022 was 8.6%, compared to 8.1% in May. A year earlier, the rate was 1.9%. The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta (6.1%), France (6.5%), and Finland (8.1%). Estonia (22.0%), Lithuania (20.5%), and Latvia (19.2%) registered the highest annual rates. European Central Bank policymakers are considering raising interest rates by more than 50 basis points at their meeting on Thursday to combat record-high inflation. The euro is strengthening on these expectations.

Investors are also watching the political drama in Rome as the Italian government is mired in uncertainty over whether Mario Draghi will remain as prime minister.

Nord Stream 1 resumes gas flows on Thursday after annual maintenance but at a reduced level.

In the oil market, traders continue to weigh limited inventories against the prospect of a recession that has brought the price back to $100 a barrel. Investors may see oil fall further if the economic outlook continues to deteriorate or if Saudi Arabia agrees to produce more oil. On the other hand, the summer season is in full swing, and the demand deficit is still there. These factors prevent the price from falling lower.

In metals, everything is the same. Gold and silver are inversely correlated to the dollar index and US government bond yields, which in turn are rising against a background of tighter monetary policy from the Fed. There are no fundamental reasons for buying now, and while the rates are going up, there won’t be. At the moment, buying gold and silver is possible only for speculative purposes for short periods.

Asian stocks are mostly rising at the market opening today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 2.40% since opening, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 1.74%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) is trading up 1.58%.

RBA Governor Lowe said today that inflation in Australia would reach 6% or 7% this year, so the Central Bank will have to keep raising rates.

The Bank of Japan will also rule on policy on Thursday, but it is not expected to make any changes to its ultra-soft stance.

China and the European Union (EU) have agreed to work together to promote economic and trade cooperation and jointly address the global economy’s challenges. The two sides reached several outcomes and consensus on macroeconomic policy coordination, cooperation in production and supply chains, WTO reform, broader market opening, implementation of the China-EU geographical indications agreement, and regulatory cooperation.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,936.69 +105.84 (+2.76%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,827.05 +754.44 (+2.43%)

DAX (DE40) 13,308.41 +348.60 (+2.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,296.28 +73.04 (+1.01%)

USD Index 106.71 −0.65 (−0.61%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 02:10 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Behind the crisis in Sri Lanka – how political and economic mismanagement combined to plunge nation into turmoil

By Neil DeVotta, Wake Forest University 

Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa formally resigned on July 15, 2022, having earlier fled the country amid widespread protests in the Southern Asian nation.

The man who replaced him, Prime Minister and now interim President Ranil Wickremesinghe, is likewise facing calls to go amid political and economic turmoil.

Although the drama escalated over a matter of days – during which the presidential palace and the prime minister’s residence were both occupied by demonstrators – the crisis is years in the making, argues Neil DeVotta, professor of politics and international affairs at Wake Forest University.

The Conversation U.S. asked DeVotta, who grew up in Sri Lanka and specializes in South Asian politics, to explain what brought about the crisis and where the nation of 22 million goes from here.

Can you talk us through the latest events?

What happened in Sri Lanka was really quite revolutionary. For the first time in the country’s history, you had a president resign – and in the most humiliating manner.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa had earlier announced his intention to step down but did not do so immediately, because once he did that he would lose his presidential immunity from prosecution. Instead he fled the country, first going to the Maldives and then to Singapore. Some claim he may now be looking to get to Saudi Arabia – all of which is somewhat ironic given that Dubai, the Maldives and Saudi Arabia are Muslim states, and during his tenure in power Rajapaksa stood accused of encouraging Islamophobia to bolster his lock on power.

The catalyst behind all this was a protest movement. Demonstrators have since left the president’s and the prime minister’s official residence, but the protest movement has only partly succeeded. They wanted Rajapaksa and his brothers gone. But many also wanted the ouster of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe.

Instead, Wickremesinghe, who was not elected to Parliament and got a seat only through a national list that tops up the legislature, has now been sworn in as interim president. So a man with no mandate – his party got only a small fraction of the 11.5 million valid votes cast in the 2020 election – is now acting president and may end up with the job full time once the Sri Lankan Parliament holds a secret ballot on July 20, 2022.

What was the spark to the crisis?

The spark was really set off in April 2021 when Rajapaksa announced a ban on fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides.

Successive Sri Lankan governments have long been living beyond their means and employing a debt rollover strategy to keep the country afloat – in short, the country was relying on new loans, alongside revenue from tourism and international remittance, to pay down its debt.

But then came COVID-19, which severely affected tourism and contributed to what economists call a “balance of payments crisis.” In other words, the country was unable to pay for essential imports or service its debt. This pushed the government to abruptly announce a ban on herbicides and fertilizers – something they hoped would save the country US$400 million dollars on imports annually. The president had previously indicated that the move to organic agriculture would take place over 10 years. Instead, it was implemented abruptly despite warnings over the impact it would have on agriculture yields.

That led to farmers’ protesting. They were soon joined by sympathetic unions. The balance of payments crisis went far beyond farming. It got to the point when the government couldn’t pay for almost anything it was hoping to import, leading to shortages in medicines and milk powder. And that led to people from other sectors also protesting.

On top of this, the government was printing money to pay for goods. This inevitably led to inflation – which is running above 50%.

The tipping point came when people found that they could no longer pay for cooking gas and fuel. A few weeks ago, the government announced that it would provide fuel for essential services only, shuttering schools and ordering workers to stay at home.

So this was a purely economic crisis?

Not quite. While the spark was a balance of payments crisis, I believe that underpinning the mess is a deep-rooted ethnonationalism that has allowed and encouraged corruption, nepotism and short-termism.

Since at least the 1950s, Sri Lanka has been in the grips of Sinhalese Buddhist nationalism. The Sinhalese make up around 75% of the population, with Tamils at around 15% and Muslims at 10%.

Sinhalese Sri Lankans have long been favored when it comes to access to universities and government positions. This has been to the detriment of not only the country’s minorities but also its governance. It has led to a decay in how the state functions. Sri Lanka has ended up with a system that disregards merit and is instead rooted in enthnocracy – rule by one dominant group. And that has helped spread nepotism and corruption.

The fact that the Rajapaksa brothers helped brutally suppressed and defeated a three-decade Tamil insurgency bolstered their credentials among Sinhalese Buddhist nationalists and consolidated their grip on power.

That civil war, which ended in 2009, also contributed to the current crisis. Through the conflict, the Sri Lankan government ran national deficits to finance the counterinsurgency.

After the war, the Rajapaksas looked to develop the country by building up its infrastructure. What the country instead got was “blingfrastructure” – vanity projects, often financed by China, that were dogged by corruption and graft. One such project is an airport that sees very few planes land or take off. I visited the Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport in 2015, and the only other people there were a coachload of students from a school on a field trip. Nothing has changed since then.

Other such wasteful projects include a conference center and cricket ground – called the Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium – not far from the Mattala airport that hosts next to nothing. And then there is the Lotus Tower, the tallest communications tower in South Asia, which was supposed to contain other facilities and was ceremonially opened in 2019 but remains out of operation.

The construction of such projects has been dogged by suggestions of corruption. Such projects largely involved Chinese construction firms, often using Chinese laborers – including Chinese prisoners, in the case of the Hambantota Port, now leased to China for 99 years because Sri Lanka could not pay its debts. Sri Lankans themselves have benefited only little.

On paper it looked like the country was developing and GDP was rising. But the growth was from external money rather than goods and services generated in Sri Lanka.

Chinese loans with short terms and high interest played no small role in quickening Sri Lanka’s debt problem. As a result, the country currently owes between $5 billion and $10 billion to China, and its overall debt stands at $51 billion dollars.

What happen next?

The most important thing that Sri Lanka needs going forward is political stability. Without that, you will not get the help required from the international community.

And Sri Lanka is not going to get out of its economic mess without help from international actors, such as the International Monetary Fund, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank. It also needs help from partners like India, Japan, China and the U.S.

As it is, Wickremesinghe, the interim president, has said the country will suffer shortages in goods until the end of 2023.

Sri Lanka needs large-scale, long-term economic restructuring. And for that to happen, the government will have to restructure its bilateral debt – the IMF will not give Sri Lanka money simply so that it can pay off its debt to China or any other entity.

But China knows that cutting any debt deal with Sri Lanka will mean that other countries that hold large Chinese debt – like Pakistan and some African countries – will expect the same. And Beijing doesn’t want to set that precedent. On the other hand, China will most likely have to work with Sri Lanka and other bilateral donors, especially now that the Rajapaksas are out of power. It needs to cultivate goodwill to maintain influence in the island and will not want to be seen as exacerbating Sri Lanka’s woes.

The IMF will also likely expect painful measures to tamp down costs if it is to come to Sri Lanka’s aid. It will most likely insist that Sri Lanka free float its currency rather than peg it to the dollar, since right now Sri Lankans abroad are using unofficial channels – and not the banking system – to remit foreign currency. So it will likely have to devalue its currency beyond what it already has. The IMF will also likely expect that the government cut back on the number of state employees – which currently stands at around 1.5 million people.

This will be a very painful process, and it will take some time. And it will likely worsen the country’s turmoil in the days ahead.The Conversation

About the Author:

Neil DeVotta, Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

The RBA will continue to raise rates. The US reporting season has been disappointing

By JustForex

On Monday, US stock indices closed in the negative territory. By the close of trading on the stock exchange Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.69%, S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.84%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.81%.

Shares of Apple fell by 2% after reports that the company will slow hiring and spending, becoming the next tech giant to take such a step as fears of an economic slowdown hit the sector. IT equipment and services maker IBM beat expectations for quarterly earnings on Monday but warned that the strong dollar would negatively impact the company’s results. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish activity and heightened geopolitical tensions have caused the dollar to rise against a basket of currencies over the past year, prompting companies with large international operations to temper their forecasts. A stronger dollar is eating into the profits of companies with extensive international operations and converting foreign currencies into dollars.

Companies like Johnson&Johnson (JNJ), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Netflix (NFLX) report today.

The United States will impose harsh measures on countries that disrupt the international economic order, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday. “Russia has turned economic integration into a weapon,” she said, calling on all responsible countries to unite against Russia’s war in Ukraine. The United States is pushing to expand trade ties with South Korea and other trusted allies to increase supply chain resilience and prevent possible manipulation by geopolitical rivals.

Stock markets in Europe mostly rose Monday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.74% yesterday, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.94%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.22%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 0.90%.

The European Central Bank is walking a tightrope in its planning for an anti-fragmentation instrument, which will be presented after the July 21 Board of Governors meeting. Doubts in Italy about Mario Draghi’s government, combined with the highest inflation in Germany since the 1970s, increased monetary tightening in the US, end of the ECB net bond purchases, and uncertainty about the war in Ukraine – all add to the Eurozone’s vulnerability. With Draghi facing a new vote of confidence in parliament on July 20, investors are concerned that if a new government is not formed on time, Rome may not meet the conditions for EU Next Generation financing. That would lead to a widening of spreads in the bond market between the stronger and weaker members of the monetary union. And it could depress the euro even further on foreign exchanges, another factor fueling inflation.

At the market’s opening today, Asian stocks are mostly down. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.74% from the opening bell, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.15%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) is trading lower by 0.66%.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is more determined than ever to resist political and market pressures in pursuit of sustainable inflation. The BOJ is in no mood to give up stimulus. BOJ officials see some potential signs of sustainable inflation that need to be encouraged, not eliminated. That leaves the BOJ alone among major central banks in trying to keep rates near zero and limit bond yields.

The RBA intends to do whatever is necessary regarding inflation. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s July meeting showed that further steps need to be taken to normalize monetary conditions in Australia in the coming months. Bank officials are considering further interest rate hikes of 25 or 50 basis points. Higher interest rates would also help strike a more sustainable balance between supply and demand for goods and services. Inflation is projected to peak later in 2022 and then fall back to 2-3% in 2023.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,830.85 −32.31 (−0.84%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,072.61 −215.65 (−0.69%)

DAX (DE40) 12,959.81 +95.09 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,223.24 +64.23 (+0.90%)

USD Index 107.43 −0.63 (−0.58%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Kenya’s election promises: an economist’s perspective

By XN Iraki, University of Nairobi 

Kenya has four presidential candidates in the August 2022 general election. They recently launched their manifestos and one thing ties them together: the economy.

In no other Kenyan election has the economy been such a key subject, not just for those seeking power, but for voters, too.

There are two reasons: a maturing democracy and recent developments that are affecting Kenyans’ pockets.

The candidates have made numerous promises. These include stipends to poor families, access to cheaper credit, land reform, unorthodox exports, farm subsidies and other interventions. But realistically, the country’s economic challenges will be difficult to overcome and there’s only so much that a government can do about them.

Shift of focus to economy

As a country develops, economic issues take centre stage. Kenya’s political leaders are shifting the campaign focus from personalities and ethnicity to economic well-being and growth. Having analysed politics in Kenya through an economic lens for more than 20 years, I have witnessed this shift.

Between 2015 and 2019, Kenya’s economic growth averaged 4.7% per year. The arrival of COVID-19 in 2020 disrupted this trajectory and the economy contracted by 0.3%.

Kenya rallied to register 7.5% economic growth in 2021 – higher than the 4% average recorded in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank has projected a moderation of this “remarkable recovery” in 2022. It expects the middle-income economy to grow 5.2%.

Rising prices

The lingering effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have made life difficult for ordinary citizens. This has centred the state of the economy in daily conversations.

The rise in oil prices has led to inflation – where too much money chases too few goods. The World Bank projects that crude oil and natural gas prices will increase by 81% in 2022. And in June, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s year-on-year inflation rate had hit 7.9%.

This situation has especially affected the poor. For instance, the price of maize flour, a staple in Kenyan households, rose from Sh150 to Sh200 between mid-May and June 2022. Yet, no salary or wage has gone up by 33% over a similar period to protect consumers’ purchasing power.

There are others factors driving inflation. Elections in Kenya are expensive, which means there is a lot of money circulating. There are also jitters over the impending change of government, lowering investor confidence and reducing production.

What’s more, the rains in Kenya have been unreliable, leading to food shortages and a subsequent rise in prices.

The presidential candidates have noticed that voters are angry about the high costs of living, rising public debt and corruption. They are looking to offer economic solutions through their manifestos.

The promises

Former prime minister Raila Odinga is the Azimio One Kenya flagbearer. The coalition has promised a stipend of Sh6,000 (US$50) per month for vulnerable families. The World Bank puts the poverty line at US$57 a month. It’s not clear how these vulnerable families will be selected or how long the stipend will be in place for.

Kenya Kwanza – a coalition that’s fronting Deputy President William Ruto for the presidency – promises to make Sh50 billion (US$417 million) in credit available to “hustlers”, the men and women at the bottom of the economic pyramid. It hasn’t said how often this amount will be made available.

In Kenya, 83% of employers are in the informal sector, where “hustlers” work. Access to credit and job growth opportunities in this sector are limited. These “hustlers” make up the majority of the country’s 22 million voters, yet many of them live below the poverty line. The World Bank reports that 33.4% of Kenyans are poor.

Land reforms are targeted by both parties. Land ownership is an emotive issue in Kenya and is marked by inequalities that date back to colonialism.

Both manifestos are inward looking, focusing on local challenges and largely ignoring regional or international issues.

Roots Party’s George Wajackoyah launched a largely outward-looking manifesto, with China identified as a key source of export earnings. Should he be elected president, Wajackoyah expects to sell the Asian country hyena parts, and dog and snake meat. The party also wants cannabis legalised to allow for the crop’s export.

The party additionally says it would deport idle foreigners, hang the corrupt, shut down the Standard Gauge Railway and implement a four-day work week.

Roots Party’s economic ideas have brightened the campaign trail and captured the frustrations of ordinary Kenyans. During economic hardships, citizens are drawn to the extremes.

Agano Party has as its flagbearer David Waihiga. Its manifesto is both inward and outward looking. While it calls for the repatriation of Sh20 trillion (US$169 billion) stashed abroad, it also plans to offer tax waivers, subsidise maize and reduce corruption.

The hurdles

All four manifestos promise to create economic opportunities and lessen the suffering of ordinary Kenyans. But they need to be more realistic.

First, Kenyans’ thinking will not change overnight. Corruption thrives, undermining economic growth.

The current budget deficit is 8.1% of the country’s gross domestic product – the value of what it produces in a year. A budget deficit increases a country’s need to borrow. The World Bank estimates that if public debt gets to 77% of gross domestic product, then more borrowing reduces growth. Kenya will not raise the money it needs to turn the economy around if productivity doesn’t rise too.

Second, voting takes a day; economic growth takes years. Whoever wins the election will need to pool resources, adopt new technologies, secure new markets and shift citizens’ mindsets.

Three, politicians are constrained by the constitution, international obligations, vested interests and an ever-changing environment. Who foresaw COVID-19 or the war in Ukraine?

Four, the manifestos assume that the government drives the economy. The reality is that it’s citizens who do it through taxes. Yet, there is little focus on what individuals can do to uplift themselves.

Five, the manifestos are quiet on deeply entrenched issues that gnaw on the economy, such as tribalism, a culture of seeking handouts and population growth despite limited resources like land. These issues hinder the country’s productivity.

The four presidential candidates haven’t fully addressed the four factors of production: land, capital, labour and entrepreneurship. Land has been highlighted not as a factor of production, but for political reasons. Capital has been given the least attention – where will it come from beyond debt and taxes? Azimio la Umoja and Kenya Kwanza mention improving labour through education, but fail to detail the plan to make Kenyans more productive and entrepreneurial.

When the voting results are announced, reality will dawn. No jobs will be created overnight. Prices will not drop overnight. Voting is a sprint, economic growth is a marathon.The Conversation

About the Author:

XN Iraki, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Management Sciences, University of Nairobi

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

How sustainable manufacturing could help reduce the environmental impact of industry

By Nabil Nasr, Rochester Institute of Technology 

Nabil Nasr is the associate provost and director of the Golisano Institute for Sustainability at Rochester Institute of Technology. He is also the CEO of the Remade Institute, which was established by the U.S. government to conduct early-stage R&D to accelerate the transition to circular economy, which is a sustainable industrial model for improved resource efficiency and decreased systemic energy, emissions and waste generation. Below are highlights from an interview with The Conversation. Here, Nasr explains some of the ideas behind sustainable manufacturing and why they matter. Answers have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Nabil Nasr, associate provost and director of the Golisano Institute for Sustainability at Rochester Institute of Technology, discusses sustainable manufacturing and other topics.

How would you explain sustainable manufacturing? What does the average person not know or understand about sustainable manufacturing?

When we talk about sustainable manufacturing, we mean cleaner and more efficient systems with less resource consumption, less waste and emissions. It is to simply minimize any negative impact on the environment while we are still meeting demand, but in much more efficient and sustainable ways. One example of sustainable manufacturing is an automotive factory carrying out its production capacity with 10% of its typical emission due to advanced and efficient processing technology, reducing its production waste to near zero by figuring out how to switch its shipping containers of supplied parts from single use to reusable ones, accept more recycled materials in production, and through innovation make their products more efficient and last longer.

Sustainability is about the proper balance in a system. In our industrial system, it means we are taking into account the impact of what we do and also making sure we understand the impact on the supply side of natural resources that we use. It is understanding environmental impacts and making sure we’re not causing negative impacts unnecessarily. It’s being able to ensure that we are able to satisfy our demands now and in the future without facing any environmental challenges.

Early on at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, emissions, waste and natural resource consumption were low. A lot of the manufacturing impacts on the environment were not taken into account because the volumes that we were generating were much, much lower than we have today. The methods and approaches in manufacturing we use today are really built on a lot of those approaches that we developed back then.

The reality is that the situation today has drastically changed, but our approaches have not. There is plenty of industrialization going on around the globe. And, there is plenty of pollution and waste generated. In addition, a lot of materials we use in manufacturing are nonrenewable resources.

So it sounds like countries that are industrialized now picked up a lot of bad habits. And we know that growth is coming from these developing nations and we don’t want them to repeat those bad habits. But we want to raise their standard of living just without the consequences that we brought to the environment.

Yeah, absolutely. So there was an article I read a long time ago that said China and India either will destroy the world or save it. And I think the rationale was that if China and India copy the model and technologies used in the West to building its industrial system, the world will see drastic negative impact on the environment. The key factor here is the significantly high scale of activities needed to support their very large populations. However, if they are much more innovative and come up with much more efficient and cleaner methods better than used in the West to build up industrial enterprises, they would save the world because the scale of what they do is significant.

In talking about how these two countries could either ruin or save the world, do you remain an optimist?

Absolutely. I serve on the the United Nations Environment Program’s International Resource Panel. One of the IRP’s roles is to inform policy through validated independent scientific studies. One of the panel’s reports is called the Global Resources Outlook. The last report was published in 2019.

The experts are saying that if business as usual continues, we’re probably going to increase greenhouse gas emission by 43% by 2060. However, if we employ effective sustainability measures across the globe, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a significant percentage, even by as much as 90%. A 2018 study I led for the IRP found that applying remanufacturing alongside other resource recovery methods like comprehensive refurbishment, repair and reuse could cut greenhouse gas emissions of those products by 79%–99% across manufacturing supply chains.

So there is optimism if we employ many sustainability measures. However, I’ve been around long enough to know that it’s always disappointing to see that the indicators are there; the approaches to address some of those issues are identified, but the will to actually employ them isn’t. Despite this, I’m still optimistic because we know enough about the right path forward and it is still not too late to move in the right direction.

Were there any lessons we’ve learned during the COVID-19 pandemic that we can apply to challenges we’re facing?

We learned a lot from the COVID crisis. When the risk became known, even though not all agreed, people around the globe took significant measures and actions to address the challenge. We accepted changes to the way we live and interact, we marshaled all of our resources to develop vaccines and address the medical supply shortages. The bottom line is that we rose to the occasion and we, in most part, took actions to deal with the risk in a significant way.

The environmental challenges we face today, like climate change, are serious global challenges as well. However, they have been occurring over a long time and, unfortunately, mostly have not been taken as seriously as they should have been. We certainly have learned that when we have the will to address serious challenges, we can meet them.

Final question. Give me the elevator pitch on remanufacturing.

Remanufacturing is a process by which we bring a product that has been used back to a like-new-or-better condition. Through a rigorous industrial process, we disassemble the product to the component level. We clean, inspect and restore it, qualifying every part. We then reassemble the product similar to what happened when it was built the first time. The reality is that by doing so, you’re using anywhere from 70% to 90% of the materials recovered from the use phase. This has significantly far lower impacts on the environment when compared to making new products from raw materials.

You don’t mine virgin material for that. You’re saving the energy that made those parts; you’re saving the capital equipment that made those parts; you’re saving the labor cost. So the savings are significant. The overall savings are about 50%. For example, a remanufactured vehicle part in the United States requires less than 10% of the energy needed to make a new one, and less than 5% of new materials. That means lower costs for the producer while providing the consumer with a very high-quality product. Examples of commonly remanufactured products are construction equipment, automotive engines and transmissions, medical equipment and aircraft parts. Those products are similar to brand-new products, and companies like Xerox, Caterpillar and GE all have made remanufacturing an important part of their overall operations.The Conversation

About the Author:

Nabil Nasr, Associate Provost Academic Affairs and Director of GIS, Rochester Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

The US reporting season is gaining momentum. Inflation in New Zealand hit an all-time high

By JustForex

Friday’s macro data showed that US retail sales rose more than expected in June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s index of general business conditions increased to +11.1 from -1.2. A value above zero indicates growth and the July figure beat all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. At the same time, the Fed Bank Business Conditions Index fell more than 20 points to -6.2, the biggest drop since the terrorist attacks in September 2001. Also late last week the US Federal Reserve released fresh statistics on the change in assets on the balance sheet. The data showed a $69.2 billion drop in assets, while reserves in the banking system increased. The growing surplus of dollar liquidity in the financial system led to the closing of longs on the US currency, which led to some decline of the dollar on Thursday and Friday. At the same time, stock indices were rising for the last 2 days of last week. By the close of stock markets on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 2.15% (+0.03% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 1.92% (-0.46% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.79% (-0.63% for the week).

The odds of a 100 basis point hike declined slightly after two of the Fed’s most hawkish spokesmen, Bullard and Waller, said Thursday that they would prefer a 75 basis point hike. Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic on Friday also warned the Central Bank against acting “too harshly” because it could undermine high hiring and other positive trends still seen in the economy. But a 20% chance of a 100 basis point rate hike remains, which is also significant.

The US bank reporting season began on a weak note. There will be a lot of big names reporting this week. Today investors should pay attention to the reports of Bank of America (BAC), IBM (IBM), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 2.76% (+0.64% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR 40) jumped by 2.04% (+1.89% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.81% (-0.49% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 1.69% (-0.52% for the week).

Europe is in a difficult position. Inflation is at record highs, with growing fears that Europe could be cut off from Russian natural gas, and that could be an uncontrollable and difficult variable for European economies. The ECB is in a quandary with Europe, trying to balance the need for higher interest rates against the impact that high rates could have on an already struggling European economy. A political crisis is also looming. Boris Johnson has already resigned in Britain. In Italy, Mario Draghi was also set to resign, but his resignation was not accepted. German Olaf Scholz is now under huge criticism.

Investors in Europe are also now focused on whether the critical Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany from Russia will reopen after being closed for maintenance last week. It is scheduled to reopen on July 21, but European governments are concerned that Moscow may extend it to limit gas supplies to Europe, disrupting plans for winter storage.

Traders should keep a close eye on the oil market this week. Preliminary information suggests that US President Joe Biden has reached an agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to produce more oil, so oil prices could be very volatile. White House officials also said ahead of Biden’s visit to the kingdom that they hoped OPEC and its non-OPEC partners would take additional measures to increase oil supplies to help deal with rising domestic gasoline prices. But officially at this point, Saudi Arabia has not made any specific commitments to the US to increase oil production and will only do so if there is a shortage in the market.

Asian markets traded lower last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.39% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 5.46% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 1.08% for the week. On Monday’s opening, the Asian market is increasing.

New Zealand’s consumer price index increased by 1.7% in the last quarter, (expected +1.8%). Annual inflation accelerated to 7.3% from 6.9%, the highest level since 1990. In May, the central bank projected that inflation would peak at 7% this year and then return to the upper end of the range by the end of 2023.

In the commodities market, natural gas futures (+17.92%) showed the biggest gain over the week. Futures on palladium (-15.56%), wheat (-12.39%), lumber (-9.25%), coffee (-9.21%), orange juice (-7.89%), copper (-7.86%), cotton (-7.24%), gasoline (-7.17%), WTI oil (-6.89%), platinum (-5.69%), Brent oil (-5.5%), corn (-4.26%), and silver (-2.99%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,863.16 +72.78 (+1.92%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,288.26 +658.09 (+2.15%)

DAX (DE40) 12,864.72 +345.06 (+2.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,159.01 +119.20 (+1.69%)

USD Index 107.98 −0.56 (−0.52%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.