Archive for Economics & Fundamentals – Page 124

Donations by top 50 US donors dropped sharply to $14 billion in 2022 – Bill Gates, Mike Bloomberg and Warren Buffett lead the list of biggest givers

By David Campbell, Binghamton University, State University of New York; Elizabeth J. Dale, Seattle University, and Michael Moody, Grand Valley State University 

The 50 Americans who gave or pledged the most to charity in 2022 committed to giving US$14.1 billion to foundations, universities, hospitals and more – a total that was 60% below an inflation-adjusted $35.6 billion in 2021, according to the Chronicle of Philanthropy’s latest annual tally of these donations.

The Conversation U.S. asked David Campbell, Elizabeth Dale and Michael Moody, three scholars of philanthropy, to assess the significance of these gifts and to consider what this data indicates about the state of charitable giving in the United States.

What trends stand out overall?

Elizabeth Dale: After two years of giving that was close to record levels, the nation’s biggest donors seem to have resumed giving at pre-pandemic levels, with support largely directed to the causes they have historically favored: higher education, hospitals and medical research. They also put a lot of money into foundations, for the most part those bearing the names of these extremely wealthy donors or their relatives.

I believe that the decline in giving likely had something to do with last year’s stock market volatility – major indices lost as much as 33% of their value in 2022 – and the onset of high inflation. Both financial markets and inflation can influence charitable giving.

David Campbell: Despite giving from these very rich Americans being so much lower than in 2021 and 2020, the total for 2022 was still higher than more than half of the years since 2000. Nonetheless, nearly half of the total came from two donors, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and former New York City mayor and financial media entrepreneur Mike Bloomberg, both of whom have led this list three of the past four years. Some $8 billion – more than half of these gifts – went to foundations in 2022, with $5 billion injected into the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation alone.

This means that the benefit of these donations will not be experienced immediately but rather over many years. U.S. foundations are required to spend only 5% of their assets annually, and most foundations try to preserve their holdings so that they may continue operating well into the future.

Michael Moody: The gifts from Bill Gates and Warren Buffett both point to how the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been evolving in the past couple years, following the founders’ divorce in 2021.

Bill Gates’ contribution to the foundation came from him alone, and Buffett’s big gifts last year went to foundations led by his relatives rather than to the Gates Foundation, an institution that he announced years ago would receive the bulk of his fortune. While Buffett has said he still fully supports the Gates foundation, he did step off its board in 2021. That board has since gained new members who aren’t related to Bill Gates or Melinda French Gates.

What surprises you about the biggest donors?

Campbell: One thing that stands out to me is not only that some donors appear on this list year after year but also that they have a clear vision for their philanthropy and consistently use it to focus on a few core passions: John and Laura Arnold on a specific set of public policy concerns, including reproductive rights and civil rights; Gates on global health; and Bloomberg on higher education access, public health and gun safety.

Dale: I’d like to point out that only 19 of this year’s top 50 donors are on the Forbes list of the 400 wealthiest Americans. It’s worth paying attention to who isn’t giving on a big scale, especially in an era of such extreme wealth inequality and an effective 8.2% tax rate on the wealthiest Americans. It can be easier to pay a lot of attention to the perennial donors on this list like Bill Gates, Bloomberg, the Arnolds, Sergey Brin and a few others who have consistently been among the country’s top charitable donors for years.

I also find it interesting that three big donors all re-upped their commitments to the Alzheimer’s Drug Discovery Foundation Diagnostics Accelerator. Leonard Lauder – an heir to the Estée Lauder Cos. cosmetics fortune – Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates each made $11.25 million gifts to this venture, which they helped launch in 2018 to research ways to make earlier diagnoses Alzheimer’s disease.

Moody: I find it noteworthy that none of the top 50 donors in 2022 was under 40 and that only five of them were under 50. That the top donors skew older should not be too surprising given that Baby Boomers have nine times as much wealth as millennials. But some members of Generation X and millennials are starting to enter the echelon of the world’s wealthiest, so I’d expected to see more of them crack this list.

What concerns do you have?

Moody: I think a lot of Americans would say that one of our biggest problems as a country right now is our divisiveness and our apparent inability to overcome it. Yet with the notable exception of Pierre and Pam Omidyar, who support efforts to ensure free and fair elections as well as what they term “constructive politics” through their Democracy Fund, few of the biggest donors are focused on overcoming this polarization.

Dale: I’m struck by how little money in 2022 was clearly identified as being directed to the environment and climate change, especially given the climate-related disasters of Hurricane Ian in Florida, heat waves in Europe and flooding in Pakistan and India.

While several of these top donors did announce that they had made gifts totaling $186.8 million to environmental-related causes, only $27.6 million was directly given to an environmental organization and $50 million to address climate change. Other large gifts went to the Schmidt Ocean Institute and the ocean program at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Campbell: I think it is important to note that giving by MacKenzie Scott is not included on this list because she did not respond to the Chronicle of Philanthropy’s survey. She has given at least $14 billion to some 1,600 nonprofits since 2019.

Scott’s approach to philanthropy stands out because of its unusual scale, as well as her focus on equity and marginalized groups and her no-strings-attached grants. Her gifts to organizations to use for their immediate needs provide a stark contrast to other top givers who place their donations in foundations, where much of the public benefit is deferred.

What do you expect to see in 2023 and beyond?

Campbell: I have more questions than answers.

How will the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria affect giving? Will the scale of the disaster, which had left 36,000 people dead by mid-February 2023, be a motivator, considering that many of the largest U.S. donors focus their giving on causes operating in the United States? Will declining inflation spur more giving by the wealthiest Americans next year and a return to the levels seen in recent years?

I imagine we will see Melinda French Gates on this list next year. Will her giving look more like Scott’s, making donations to organizations that address equity issues a priority? Or will it look more traditional and long-term, emphasize foundation giving and be shaped by the input of in-house experts?

Dale: While the composition of the data obscures much about the end recipients of this elite giving, I believe it’s clear that more philanthropy, in addition to large-scale public funding, is needed to address major diseases, climate change and social and racial inequality. I’d like to see more of these donors make efforts to work together and a speedier disbursement of grants from foundations.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has provided funding for The Conversation U.S. and provides funding for The Conversation internationally. Arnold Ventures provides funding for The Conversation U.S.The Conversation

About the Authors:

David Campbell, Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New York; Elizabeth J. Dale, Associate Professor of Nonprofit Leadership, Seattle University, and Michael Moody, Chair for Family Philanthropy, Grand Valley State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Market caution returns on hot US CPI data

By ForexTime

Asian shares flashed red on Wednesday along with US futures as investors evaluated sticky American inflation data and remarks from Fed officials. European futures are pointing to a negative open this morning amid the cautious sentiment and this could find its way back to Wall Street later today.

In the currency arena, dollar bulls were injected with some renewed confidence as expectations intensified over interest rates remaining higher for longer than initially anticipated. Gold struggled to keep above $1850 during early trade and could extend losses as expectations shift towards a more hawkish Fed in the near term. Given how the latest red-hot US inflation figures are likely to create some uncertainty over the US economy, caution may remain the name of the game.

Sticky inflation data rekindles rate fears

Buying sentiment towards the dollar slightly improved after the latest US inflation figures printed higher than expected.

The headline consumer price index number climbed 6.4% in January from a year earlier, one-tenth lower than the 6.5% print in December. Although this was higher than the forecast of 6.2%, it was still the lowest reading since October 2021.  The core reading, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, cooled for the fourth consecutive month to 5.6%. This figure was above market expectations of 5.5% but still, the lowest witnessed since December 2021.

While inflation in the world’s largest economy continues to slow, it’s not falling as quickly as investors anticipated – ultimately rekindling Fed rate hike bets. Given how these latest inflation figures add to January’s blowout jobs report, the dollar could edge higher in the short term. However, the bigger picture has not changed with the Fed closer to a peak in rates in the coming few months.

It will be wise to keep a close eye on the US retail sales and industrial production figures released later today. There has been a lot of hype and excitement around the US CPI but the retail sales data may provide fresh insight into consumer behaviour and health of the economy. A strong set of economic data will most likely stimulate expectations around US rates being higher for longer.

On the technical front, the DXY could be gearing up for a breakout above 104.00. Such a move could open the doors towards 105.00. Alternatively, sustained weakness below 104.00 may open a path back toward 102.00.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

After swinging between losses and gains in the previous session, gold kicked off Wednesday on a negative note.

The precious metal is trading below $1850 thanks to the sticky US inflation print and conflicting views from Fed officials. Given how the dollar is likely to draw strength from expectations around the Fed staying hawkish for longer, this could translate into more pain for zero-yielding gold down the road. Buying sentiment towards the precious metal could also take another hit this afternoon if the US retail sales and industrial production data exceed market forecasts.

Focusing on the technical picture, gold is under pressure on the daily charts. A solid daily close under $1850 may open the door toward $1815 and $1800, respectively.


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US CPI: Investors look through near-term squalls, focus on earnings

By George Prior 

Month-on-month inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s responses won’t fixate investors, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group’s warning comes as a new report on U.S. inflation reveals the annual rate of price increases was 6.4% in January following a decline to 6.5% in December. More broadly, inflation has cooled from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022.

He says: “It’s slightly higher than most analysts had expected, but it’s nothing too dramatic. All other reports were in line with expectations.

“It should also be noted that different calculation metrics were used this month.

“There has been a shift as markets are now betting on a longer period of higher interest rates as they begin to take heed of the message from U.S. Federal Reserve officials that there’s still a way to cool inflation in the face of a robust labour market.

“The tight labour market is a headache for the Fed, as it contributes to strong wage growth. However, Fed Chair Powell made clear last week that embedded inflation, caused by wage growth, is not yet a problem.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Despite the higher-than-expected inflation print, it’s clear to investors that we’re far closer to the ‘home run’ now.

“I think investors will, sensibly, be prepared to look through any near-term squalls on inflation and interest rate news.

“Instead, rightly, they will be focused more on earnings. Fourth-quarter 2022 earnings have fallen from a year ago, now a decline in the first quarter of 2023 would push the S&P 500 into an earnings recession.”

This, says Nigel Green, will be more front and center in investors’ minds.

“They are less fixated on the month-on-month inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s response.

“Inflation seems to have peaked and investors are looking to the future, not in the rear-view mirror.”

As we move past peak-inflation, it’s critical that investors ensure their portfolios are suitably diversified across asset classes, sectors, currencies and regions, so as to make the most of the considerable opportunities that will inevitably present themselves.

“As the economic cycle moves ahead, and economies readjust, there will be big winners and big losers – it’s about being invested in the right companies, those which can consistently maintain or steadily grow margin, as well as diversification across sectors, asset classes and regions.

“A good fund manager will be critical in identifying these winners and losers as the economic cycle moves on,” affirms the deVere CEO.

He concludes: “As we’re seeing, some companies are struggling to maintain margin and are failing to report as had been expected.

“This is now a bigger deal for investors looking to build wealth than individual inflation reports.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

The Bank of Japan is on the verge of change. Financial markets are waiting for new CPI data

By JustMarkets

The Federal Reserve may have to keep raising interest rates to curb price increases, which could slow economic growth and affect the labor market, FOMC spokeswoman Michelle Bowman said yesterday. Bowman noted that continued labor market tightness is putting upward pressure on inflation, even if some components of inflation are declining because of improved supply factors. Officials in December projected that rates would peak at 5.1% this year, according to their average forecast. But they will update those estimates next month. Such comments did not affect investor sentiment to buy stocks. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.11, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.48%.

Meta (META) jumped about 3% after the Financial Times reported that the company is preparing to announce a new round of job cuts.

Today, investors are focused on January inflation data (CPI) to revise their bets on the central bank’s monetary policy trajectory. The consumer price index is expected to fall from 6.5% to 6.3% year-over-year, with core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also falling from 5.7% to 5.4%. If the actual data is in line or at least not worse, the dollar index will probably start to lose ground, giving confidence to stock indices, and conversely, rising inflation will return panic sentiment to the market, causing indices to fall and investors to return to the dollar.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.58%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.11%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.02%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 0.83% on Monday.

With inflation slowing faster than expected in Europe, the new quarterly forecast is likely to signal a slowdown in price growth, the head of Portugal’s central bank said Monday. He said the quarterly GDP data would be “very important” in determining the course of monetary policy, especially the peak in borrowing costs. While record Eurozone inflation is receding, the ECB is set to raise rates by another 50 basis points at next month’s meeting. Officials are worried about price pressure caused by rising salaries, which are not yet weakening.

Concerns about another hot US inflation figure have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to be more hawkish than previously thought. Any rally in the US currency puts pressure on commodities, led by oil and gold. The dollar index will get fundamental support if today’s inflation data are worse than forecast.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.88% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.12%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 0.48%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) lost 0.21%.

BlackRock downgraded Japanese stocks on expectations of a monetary policy reversal. According to analysts, inflation in the country is starting to take root, and the Bank of Japan continues to maintain its ultra-soft monetary policy, including limiting bond yields, which requires significant bond purchases. Therefore, a policy change could occur at any moment. Meanwhile, there is growing speculation about what a change in BOJ leadership in April would mean for policy. Kuroda’s last meeting as governor will be on March 10. BlackRock believes that regardless of who takes over, wage and inflation dynamics mean that the current policy stance is likely exhausted, and a change in monetary policy is inevitable.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe will appear before Parliament on Wednesday and Friday for hearings on his anti-inflationary campaign, which has raised interest rates by 325 basis points in just 10 months. Disputes in the press have increased speculation that Lowe may not be appointed to a second term as governor because of the government’s independent investigation into central bank management and policy. Consumer price inflation in Australia is now at a 32-year high of 7.8% and is projected to return to the upper limit of the bank’s target range of 2-3% by mid-2025.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,137.29 +46.83 (+1.14%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,245.93 +376.66 (+1.11%)

DAX (DE40) 15,397.34 +89.36 (+0.58%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,947.60 +65.15 (+0.83%)

USD Index 103.28 -0.35 (-0.34%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 21:05 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Investors are awaiting the name of the new BoJ governor. The US reporting season is at an end

By JustMarkets

Last week, the Nasdaq recorded its first weekly decline of the year. After a strong report on nonfarm payrolls and data from ISM in service sectors, investors concluded that the US economy remains resilient, and interest rates are pricing in a “higher for the longer term” scenario. Such market conditions create an environment of uncertainty for investors, which limits growth potential. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.50 (-0.02% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.22% (-0.71% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.61% on Friday (-1.56% for the week).

2-year and 10-year bond yields soared to more than four-week highs last week as traders reassessed the trajectory of monetary policy higher, with the final rate now at 5.17% compared to 4.92% earlier this month.

According to Refinitiv, more than half of the firms in the S&P 500 reported earnings, with 69% beating earnings estimates for the quarter. Coca-Cola (KO), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Airbnb (ABNB), and Biogen (BIIB) are reporting this week.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) fell by 1.39% (-0.38% on the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.82% (-0.73% on the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.36% (-0.63% on the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) decreased by 0.36% (-0.24% on the week).

After the Bank of England’s latest rate hike and Friday’s GDP data, markets believe the central bank may soon hit the pause button. According to business surveys, the UK economy faces serious recession risks. The deciding factor this week will be the labor market figures and new inflation data. Inflation is projected to remain above 10%, while the labor market will show signs of weakness. In that case, the Bank of England will have no choice but to stop raising rates.

The selloff in precious metals stabilized somewhat late last week as markets await important inflation data this week. With the new economic data, there is a constant reassessment of forward-looking expectations. A soft landing and a resilient US economy will help push gold prices higher. New signals of policy tightening will be negative for gold, as the precious metals have an inverse correlation to the dollar index and government bond yields.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined 0.34% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.63% over the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.74% over the week, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.60%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 1.65% over the week.

This week, the Japanese government will officially elect a new Governor of the Bank of Japan to replace Haruhiko Kuroda, whose decade as the Central Bank will end in April. Whether the Bank of Japan will adjust its policy is one of the main questions facing markets around the world this year. BoJ observers suspect that the current ultra-soft monetary policy is likely to change as inflation rises. Also, on Friday, it was reported that the Japanese government decided to nominate Kazuo Ueda as governor of the Bank of Japan after Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya reportedly refused the role. It was thought that Amamiya would provide some continuity to Kuroda’s policies. Although Ueda’s political views are not yet clear, traders are betting that he is unlikely to be as cautious as Amamiya about tightening policy. He is not currently a member of the Bank of Japan and has not been involved in extreme stimulus policies in the last decade, so it is thought that he might be more open to raising interest rates.

In the commodities market, futures on WTI crude oil (+8.68%), Brent oil (+8.23%), gasoline (+7.65%), natural gas (+7.05%), orange juice (+4.47%) and wheat (+4.26%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on lumber (-15.23%), palladium (-5.8%), and platinum (-2.96%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,090.46 +8.96 (+0.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,869.27 +169.39 (+0.50%)

DAX (DE40) 15,307.98  −215.44 (−1.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,882.45 −28.70 (−0.36%)

USD Index 102.99 +1.24 (+1.22%)

Important events for today:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Indian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Gold and Inflation: Here’s a Market Myth

“If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then…”

By Elliott Wave International

Back in the days of the Roman Empire, an ounce of gold could buy a Roman a well-made toga, belt and finely crafted sandals.

In modern day Rome, lo and behold, a businessman can become sharply dressed via the value of that same ounce of gold.

So, yes, gold has maintained its store of value over the centuries.

However, in the relative short term — which can last years — gold may not be the inflation hedge that gold bugs believe it to be.

In a moment, I’ll show you how this relates to what’s going on with gold and inflation now. However, let’s first get insights from a chart and commentary from our February 2022 Global Market Perspective, which published when inflation was really getting going (The monthly Global Market Perspective is an Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus global financial markets):

The chart shows the U.S. dollar price of Gold versus the annualized rate-of-change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). If you believe in Gold as a consumer price inflation hedge then, as the CPI is accelerating, the Gold price should be advancing. The green shaded areas show that there have been five occasions since 1980 when the opposite was true, the last year being a good example. On the other side, the Gold-Inflation myth would allude to the price of Gold declining as CPI was decelerating. The grey shaded areas show five occasions since 1970 when this was not the case, 2007 to 2010 being a prime example.

Fast forward to today and we have these headlines:

  • US inflation eases grip on economy, falling for a 6th month (AP News, Jan. 23)
  • Inflation in U.S. could turn negative by midyear, says [this] billionaire investor … (MarketWatch, Jan. 28)

What’s happened to the price of gold? It’s steadily climbed in the face of easing inflation. Of course, this is just the opposite of what was occurring around this time last year. In both cases, the price of gold went in the opposite direction from what many would expect.

On Sept. 28, gold was trading at $1613.75 and has been in an overall uptrend since. The precious metal traded as high as $1949.46 on Jan. 26 (as of this writing on Jan. 30).

The bottom-line takeaway is that the widespread expected relationship between gold and inflation is not always there — indeed, there have been several instances in the past several decades where the opposite is the case.

Know that Elliott wave analysis, which is by no means a crystal ball, can nonetheless help you anticipate gold’s next big price move.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Gold and Inflation: Here’s a Market Myth. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its inflation forecasts. Stock indices are once again under pressure from hawkish statement

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, Federal Reserve officials continued to impose their hawkish message on the market. The main message from policymakers is that further rate hikes are not far off and that the rate should remain high for an extended period. While there is nothing new in these comments, the 2-10 Treasury yield curve has flipped by 85 basis points, the deepest inversion since the early 1980s, raising new fears about economic problems. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.73%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.02% yesterday.

Walt Disney announced a restructuring plan that will include cutting 7,000 jobs, which could result in about $5.5 billion in savings. PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) released a report Thursday with fourth-quarter results that beat analysts’ forecasts. Shares of PayPal Holdings Inc jumped by 7.04% after the market close. LYFT (LYFT) released a report Thursday with fourth-quarter results that disappointed analysts. The company’s stock fell more than 22% on the report.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.96%, Spain’s IBEX 35 Index (ES35) added 0.18%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.33% on Thursday.

According to the latest report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), sluggish growth and persistent inflation will continue to hurt British households this year. NIESR expects UK GDP for the fourth quarter to show a 0.3% contraction. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey urged workers and employers to consider this year’s expected sharp drop in inflation when discussing wage settlements. Bailey told a parliamentary committee Thursday that the continued tightening reflects the Monetary Policy Committee’s concern about continued inflation and the need to see more evidence of easing in the labor market. The bank expects inflation to begin to decline rapidly from the middle of 2023 and, by the end of the year, will be about 4% due to sharp declines in wholesale energy prices, a sharp drop in import prices, and falling demand due to declining personal income.

On Wednesday, the US Energy and Information Administration (EIA) announced that weekly crude oil inventory levels reached their highest level since June 2021. Production reached a high last seen in April 2020. Despite the rise in inventories, oil continued to rise yesterday. The optimism about growth is due to increased demand from China after Fitch Ratings raised China’s economic growth forecast for 2023 to 5% from the previous figure of 4.1%. Fitch cited January services PMI data as well as Q4 2022 real GDP as reasons for the increase.

Asian markets were also mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.08% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.24%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 1.60% for the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was up by 0.12%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 0.53% for the day.

The appointment of Haruhiko Kuroda’s successor will probably take place next week. Several representatives of the Liberal Democratic Party have said that opposition would arise within the party if the prime minister of Japan chose Yamaguchi, the former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan. Yamaguchi’s name was recently ranked third in polls of economists as a likely candidate for governor of the Bank of Japan. Yamaguchi, in comparison with other contenders for the top post, is considered more hawkish. If he is appointed, market participants expect it to cause significant market volatility and signal that the government is committed to a clear change in policy toward normalization.

Australia’s Central Bank (RBA) on Friday revised its forecasts for core inflation and wage growth upward and warned of further interest rate hikes, raising the risk of the economy sliding into recession. Given the importance of preventing a price-wage spiral, the council will continue to pay close attention to labor market data. Annual wage growth is expected to peak at 4.2% later this year, up from the previous forecast of 3.9%, and then decline to 3.8% by mid-2025. The unemployment rate will rise steadily to 4.4% by mid-2025 from the current 3.5%. The RBA also raised this year’s economic growth forecast to 1.6%, up from 1.4% previously. All of these forecasts are based on the assumption that interest rates will peak at about 3.75% in mid-2023 and then decline to about 3% by June 2025.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,081.50 −36.36 (−0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,699.88 −249.13 (−0.73%)

DAX (DE40) 15,523.42 +111.37 (+0.72%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,911.15 +25.98 (+0.33%)

USD Index 103.22 -0.19 (-0.18%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

What does Adani Group crisis in India mean for global investors?

By George Prior

Global investors should remain open to India’s enormous potential, despite the heightening crisis engulfing the Adani Group, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The observation by Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as MSCI, the global index provider, is set to change its weightings for Adani Group shares after assessing how many shares can be freely traded.

It follows earlier this week mass protests by India’s opposition parties who are demanding a probe into allegations by a U.S. short-seller against the conglomerate, which triggered the Adani Group of companies share price to plummet sharply.

Market losses have now exceeded $110 billion according to media reports since Hindenburg Research accused the corporate giant of stock manipulation and accounting fraud in a 24 January report.

Adani’s diverse businesses include port management, electric power generation and transmission, renewable energy, mining, airport operations, natural gas, food processing and infrastructure.

“The serious issues of the Adani Group of companies, headed by Gautam Adani, are causing such concern in a large part because he has been a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for many, many years,” says Nigel Green.

“With questions now mounting about this hugely influential conglomerate and issues of regulatory frameworks, nepotism, governance and debt, India’s credibility amongst global investors is now hanging in the balance.”

The debacle, according to many experts, is particularly inconvenient as some multinationals are currently looking to India as a substitute to China as an investment destination.

The questions being raised by global investors have shaken confidence in India.

“However, I would also urge them to keep an open mind on India’s incredible opportunities,” says the deVere CEO.

“The country is still set to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy, and together with China will account for more than half of global growth this year.”

He continues: “India’s economy is showing incredible resilience despite external tailwinds such as supply chain issues, the reopening of China, the war in Ukraine, and the impact of considerable economic slowdowns in developed economies.

“The robustness of the Indian economy is attributable in a large part to enormous domestic markets, a growing middle class, significant supply-side reforms, a strong financial sector, pro-business reforms, and the ongoing digitalization of public and private sectors.”

He concludes: “Investors who want to build long-term wealth should remain open to the current and future opportunities in India.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

RBA warns of at least 2 more interest rate rises in coming months, as the economic outlook worsens

By Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University 

Australia’s cash rate has hit 3.35%, after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates for the ninth time in a row – and signalled more interest rate pain ahead. The 0.25 percentage point rise adds A$90 a month to a $600,000 variable mortgage.

Ahead of Tuesday’s statement from the Reserve Bank board, there was talk of just one more 0.25 point rate hike this year.

That was the view of traders in the money market, who had priced loans on the basis that the bank’s cash rate would climb just 0.35 points further after being lifted to 3.35% on Tuesday, before plateauing and then falling.

No longer. The statement released after Tuesday’s board meeting included this carefully-considered plural:

The Board expects that further increases in interest rates will be needed over the months ahead to ensure that inflation returns to target and that this period of high inflation is only temporary.

The reference was to “increases”, not an “increase”, and to those increases in the months ahead, implying (at least) two more increases within months.

Within minutes, traders adjusted their prices to a peak in the cash rate of 3.9%, rather than 3.7% – which coincidentally was around the average forecast of participants in The Conversation’s economic survey at the start of the week.

The bank is lifting rates even though it thinks inflation is heading down.

In a preview of its full set of forecasts to be released on Friday, it said it expected inflation to slide from its present 7.8% to 4.74% by the end of this year, and to around 3% by mid-2025, which is also in line with the forecasts of the Conversation’s panel.



The steam is coming out of inflation partly because of interest rate hikes here and overseas, and partly because the global effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are fading.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
EPA

Last Wednesday, the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell (the equivalent of Australia’s Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe) began talking about “disinflation”.

“We can now say, I think for the first time, that the disinflationary process has started,” he told a press conference, and to underline the point he used the word “disinflation” ten more times in 44 minutes.

US inflation has been falling since the middle of last year, from a peak of 9.1% in June to 6.5% in December.

Powell says inflation is falling mainly because the global shortages of goods and commodities caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been “fixed”.

But inflation is also falling because of the work Powell has done. In the US, the Federal Funds rate (similar to our Reserve Bank cash rate) has climbed from something near zero to 4.5% in the space of a year, denting consumer spending.

Disinflation abroad, weak wage pressure at home

In Australia, figures released by the Bureau of Statistics on Monday show spending fell in the three months to December – not in absolute dollar terms, because December is always a big month, but compared to what would have been expected given the end of the year.

Continuing to hold up inflation in the US and in the UK – but not in Australia – has been very high wages growth. Higher prices have become baked into higher wages, which have been fed into higher prices, which have in turn fed back into higher wages.

Not here. Whereas in the US and the UK wage growth has topped 6%, here it is officially 3.1% – way below what would be needed to hold up inflation.

In part, we’ve a former Labor government to thank for the absence of a wage-price spiral.

Prime Minister Paul Keating steered Australia toward enterprise bargaining at the start of the 1990s, locking many of us into wage agreements that are only struck once every three or so years, and are unable to respond quickly to prices.

So why is the Reserve Bank determined to whack inflation further, rather than watch it slowly die?

Perhaps to send a message that it is really, really serious, and that it is not a good idea to get relaxed about spending, thinking the worst will soon be over.

Bleak times ahead

Between the lines though, the bank is hinting it’s likely to soon ease off.

Its statement says rate increases affect the economy “with a lag” and that Australians on fixed-rate mortgages have yet to feel the full effect of the cumulative increases since May.

The bank’s assessment of the economy after the increases are over is bleak.

It says it expects GDP growth to slow to only 1.5% during 2023 and 2024, which is an even more dismal forecast than the International Monetary Fund’s, which has economic growth of just 1.6% this year, climbing to a historically-low 2.2% by 2026. The Conversation’s forecasters expect 1.7%, climbing to 2.5%.

The RBA’s forecast would mean income per person barely increases for years to come (although the unemployment rate would stay below 5%), a condition that before COVID was known as secular stagnation.

This would mean the economic resources Australian governments needs to provide the services we’re likely to need (such as to get to net zero emissions, and to deal with climate change) are going to be harder to come by.

It’s what Treasurer Jim Chalmers intends to spend much of 2023 readying us for.

Later this month Chalmers will release a revamped tax expenditures statement, setting out the scope to wind back tax breaks, including those for profits made selling high-end family homes. That’s something Chalmers says he isn’t considering, but which the IMF has recommended.

And then later in the year, he will release the first intergenerational report to properly spell out the financial costs of climate change – right through to 2063.

2023 is going to be quite a year.The Conversation

About the Author:

Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The British Index renewed its all-time high. Google’s AI did not impress investors

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, many Federal Reserve officials stressed the need for further rate hikes because of concerns that a strong labor market could pave the way for inflation. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.61%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.11%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.68%.

Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller said Wednesday that the fight to lower inflation might be long, and a longer-term interest rate hike may be needed.

Google held an event to launch its new “Bard” artificial intelligence chatbot, but the AI chatbot reportedly gave inaccurate answers just before the event. The decline in Google’s quotes pulled the entire tech sector with it. In response to the glitch, Google said it would use external feedback and its own testing to ensure that Bard’s answers met the high bar for quality, safety, and validity of real-world information.

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) had an outstanding performance, closing up more than 5% after the company reported unexpected fourth-quarter earnings and optimistic forecasts.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.18%, Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) added 0.67%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.26% on Wednesday.

According to Governing Council spokesman Martins Kazaks, the European Central Bank should raise interest rates to levels that would “significantly” limit the economy. The head of Lithuania’s central bank also added that investors should pay attention to comments made by President Christine Lagarde, who promised that the ECB would “stay the course” to return inflation to its medium-term target of 2%. At the same time, the politician believes there is no reason to pause or stop rate hikes after March’s 0.5% rate hike.

The FTSE 100 reached a new all-time high, boosted by optimistic reports from oil giants BP and Shell for the fourth quarter of 2022 and new optimism about the Fed’s short-term reversal. The British company Barratt developments reported a +15.9% rise in profit for the half-year, and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) added positive sentiment suggesting that the UK may be able to avoid a major recession.

Oil prices rose yesterday, mainly due to supply chain problems in Turkey caused by the earthquake. In addition, inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a deterioration of -2.18 million barrels rather than an increase of a similar amount.

Asian markets also traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.07%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) increased by 0.85%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day up by 0.35%.

The five-year term of the head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Kuroda, expires on April 8, and the choice of his successor will probably affect how quickly the Bank of Japan will be able to phase out the stimulus. Government nominees are due to be submitted to parliament at the end of this month. Earlier this week, it was reported that the Japanese government had approached Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya about the possibility of replacing current Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Among other candidates, Hiroshi Nakaso, the former deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, who has international experience, speaks fluent English, and has close contacts with foreign central banks, is widely considered. Amamiya, like Kuroda, is a fan of soft monetary policy, while Nakaso is considered a more “hawkish” candidate who can lead the Bank of Japan down the path of policy normalization.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,117.86 −46.14 (−1.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,949.01 −207.68 (−0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 15,412.05 +91.17 (+0.60%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,885.17 +20.46 (+0.26%)

USD Index 103.39 +0.06 (+0.06%)

Important events for today:
  • – German Consumer Price Index at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 11:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Economic Forecasts (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.