By Analytical Department RoboForex
USD/JPY edged lower on Tuesday, touching 159.26.
The Bank of Japan left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% per annum, as widely expected. At the same time, it raised its inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.8%, up from 1.9% previously, while downgrading its GDP growth outlook to 0.5% from 1.0%. These revisions reflect the likely economic consequences of the ongoing Middle East conflict.
Investors are also monitoring developments surrounding Iran. Tehran has sent a new proposal to the US, but disagreements over the nuclear programme remain a key obstacle.
An additional factor is the stance of Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated her readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary and emphasised increased coordination with the US on foreign exchange policy.
Technical Analysis
Free Reports:
Download Our Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter
Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.
On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is trading within a consolidation range around the 159.36 level and is moving lower towards 158.90. A test of this level is likely, followed by a possible rebound towards 159.88 and potentially 160.77. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero but pointing firmly downwards, indicating the potential for further short-term downside before a recovery.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is developing a move lower towards 158.90. A rebound towards 159.88 may follow, with a possible extension to 160.77. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20, indicating that short-term downside pressure remains.
Conclusion
The yen has found some support following the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, despite the BoJ leaving rates unchanged. The key takeaway for markets was the upward revision to inflation forecasts – from 1.9% to 2.8% –driven by the Middle East conflict, alongside a downgrade to GDP growth expectations. This suggests the BoJ is acknowledging persistent price pressures while balancing weaker economic activity. Additionally, Finance Minister Katayama’s renewed commitment to currency intervention and US-Japan policy coordination has helped support the yen. Technically, USD/JPY may see further short-term downside towards 158.90 before a potential rebound. The overall direction will depend on geopolitical developments and any further signals from Japanese authorities regarding intervention.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
- Oil prices fall back to pre‑war levels. Silver drops to a 7‑month low Jun 25, 2026
- Gold Falls to an Eight-Month Low: This May Not Be the Bottom Jun 25, 2026
- Stock indices came under heavy selling pressure amid growing skepticism about AI investments Jun 24, 2026
- The Pound Is Pressured Not by Politics, but by a Strong US Dollar Jun 24, 2026
- Global crude oil prices continued to decline. The AUD/USD exchange rate hit an 11‑week low Jun 23, 2026
- EUR/USD Remains Under Sellers’ Control as the Dollar Stays Strong Jun 23, 2026
- Gold Falls for the Third Consecutive Week: Is There Still Upside Potential? Jun 22, 2026
- Bank Indonesia raised its interest rate. Norges Bank and the SNB left rates unchanged Jun 19, 2026
- EUR/USD Loses Ground as Market Sentiment Favours the US Dollar Jun 19, 2026
- GBPUSD Awaits Bank of England Meeting Near April Lows Jun 18, 2026
