On Wednesday, the US indices rose. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.69%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.05%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.64%. The main driver of optimism was President Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely. Investors chose to ignore reports of localized strikes and vessel seizures, focusing instead on the fact that Washington has de facto removed the threat of immediate escalation that could paralyze global energy markets. A real rally unfolded in the technology sector, where semiconductor stocks posted unprecedented growth for the 16th consecutive session. Amid the AI frenzy, shares of Broadcom, AMD, and Micron surged by 5-8%.

At the end of April 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the 78,000‑dollar mark, rising more than 2% and reaching its highest level since early February. Since the start of the conflict, bitcoin has remained resilient, trading 15% above late‑February levels – a stark contrast to many traditional financial instruments during this period of turbulence. The key factor supporting the “digital gold” has been a powerful inflow of institutional capital. Just this week, 13 US spot bitcoin ETFs attracted more than 250 million dollars, reinforcing last week’s impressive net inflow of 996.4 million dollars. Growing demand from funds indicates that large investors view bitcoin as an effective diversification tool amid the prolonged geopolitical crisis and uncertainty in energy markets.

On Wednesday, the European stock market continued to decline for the third consecutive day. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.31%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.96%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.21%. The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s retaliatory vessel seizures triggered a new wave of increases in oil and gas prices. Unlike the US, which is relatively energy‑independent, Europe is extremely sensitive to the cost of imported resources, making this a signal of further margin compression in the industrial sector. Industrial giants and consumer‑goods companies came under the strongest pressure. Shares of Safran and Airbus fell by 2.5-3.5% due to expected increases in production costs, while LVMH and Adidas dropped by 2.5% amid a general investor flight from risk.

Brent crude prices surpassed the psychological level of 101 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, reacting to another wave of armed incidents in the Persian Gulf. Reports of a Liberian container ship being shelled by forces linked to the IRGC, and attacks on cargo vessels leaving ports, erased the faint hopes for de‑escalation. Although Donald Trump formally extended the ceasefire, the continued US naval blockade and Iran’s refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have created a stalemate in which global trade remains paralyzed. The oil market is now pricing in prolonged shortages, as logistical disruptions have reduced global supply by roughly 4-5 million barrels per day (around 5%). The most critical situation is unfolding in Asia, which traditionally relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude and is the first to feel the consequences of blocked transport arteries.

Asian indices traded without a unified trend yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 1.22%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 1.18%. On Thursday, Asian stock markets showed negative dynamics, as the prolonged diplomatic deadlock between the US and Iran finally undermined investors’ risk appetite. Investors in the region shifted to a cautious strategy, recognizing that the current state of “neither war nor peace,” with transport arteries closed, leads to long‑term economic depletion and rising costs for producers.
At its April 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% for the seventh consecutive time, aiming to balance support for the national currency and economic growth. The decision came amid noticeable pressure on the rupiah, which fell to 17,140 per US dollar on April 21 (-0.87% since late March). The main reason for the weakening was the global capital outflow from emerging markets, triggered by the escalation of the Middle East conflict and rising geopolitical risks. Despite external instability, Indonesia’s domestic macroeconomic indicators show resilience. Annual inflation in March slowed to 3.48%, remaining within the central bank’s target range (1.5%-3.5%). Following strong Q4 2025 data, when GDP grew by 5.39% (the highest since 2022), BI maintained its optimistic 2026 growth expectations in the range of 4.9%-5.7%.

Inflation in Singapore accelerated sharply in March 2026, reaching 1.8% year‑on‑year (compared to 1.2% in February). This jump was the highest in the past year and a half. Singaporean authorities maintain a hawkish stance, warning of prevailing pro‑inflationary risks. Further developments will critically depend on the stability of energy supplies, as any new disruptions in regional supply chains could lead to additional increases in import costs and intensify pressure on the consumer market.